Why Rebuilding Doesn't Work and How It Can

Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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By the way, 20 years ago it was widely acknowledged that both Savard and Dube are high-risk, high-return prospects, but given how talented they were, the consensus was that it is most likely that one becomes a 1C, the other a bust. That's exactly what happened. To suggest that we had no future at the time is a lot of hindsight. Even guys like Burke Henry and Mike Martin looked promising. A lot of guys busted, but a lot of our current prospects will bust as well. To say Pionk is an asset now and Burke Henry was not 20 years ago is just hindsight being 20-20 for one, but not for the other. The trade value of Burke 20 years ago was probably higher than for Pionk today. Who knows how things will shake up.
 

JimmyG89

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Yeah true @haveandare.
@Ola mention it might take (2-3) years until Chytil & Lias can contribute in NHL - it`s speculation, but hockey is a physical game and it takes time to build muscles when they are obviously too young. And Buch is a great example regarding this - and he had to work hard last year and we see some of the result of it now when he is one year older in NHL with a very good start.

- Yeah, just a notion sometimes when I read this forum - often based on wishful thinking. But it might be delays, development might stagger, last news concerning Lias - he was working on his skating with a New York coach some days ago on facebook - that is basic skills, it takes time to be NHL ready unless u are a generation talent.

The biggest difference between Buchnevich and Andersson/Chytil:

Buchnevich when drafted: 176 lbs
Andersson when drafted: 198 lbs
Chytil when drafted: 178 lbs (Elite Prospects has him at 190lbs)

When Buch came over, you saw his frame was not filled out. I think the Chytil draft profile is wrong. He has a much wider frame already. Andersson already has NHL size at 19 (Just turned 19). Chytil is close, and will likely be around 205lb, but can play at 190lb anyway, just add more muscle to his frame as someone like Malkin did.

Right now, I believe the original timeline for Chytil has changed. He's almost ready to be here. Andersson too. Next season they should be here. Look at what the Leafs did with Marner and Nylander. I'm not insinuating that they'll have that kind of impact, but they were sent to junior/AHL and were told to dominate the game. They did and at 19 and 20, came up and were top 6 forwards on a playoff team. It could be an impact like Buffalo has gotten from their picks.

Understanding that Gorton wants prospects and pick, and lots of them (http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-rangers-roster-decisions-huge-impact-nhl/), the moves coming in January/Febraury are going to be geared that way.
 

Edge

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Exactly. Sell off the impending Free Agents like Nash and Grabner, get high picks. Zucc is a fan favorite, but he can go too if he brings back a high pick. Then you've got space to buy out Staal and free up more money, technically, but you don't feel bad eating his $2.5m.

Adding two more first round studs to Chytil and Andersson, plus you've already got Buchnevic and Zibanejad, you've got the makings of two really top lines.

And having players who are young enough to be part of the long-term solution can't be underestimated. Buch, Zibanejad, Miller, Kreider, Vesey, Fast, Skjei, Pionk, Andersson, Chytil, Fast, Nieves, Graves, ADA, Hayes, Shestyorkin, Gropp, etc. all have different strengths and weaknesses, as well as potential and probabilities.

Look, not all of them are going to make it. Realistically, some of them will be moved and some will bust out. But they do at least have potential, and in some cases, are producing on some level already.

In other words, this isn't a team that is completely devoid of young or youngish players who can or might contribute on some level. Sure some of them have warts and flaws, but they're not useless either.

So we can add to that list, without having to start completely from scratch. Forget Dahlin and Svechnikov for minute. What if it's another higher end young talent? What if it's Boqvist? Zadina? Tkachuk? Hughes? How does that look when we examine our potential roster 2-3 years from now?

What if this team is picking in the top 10? Top 5? With an additional pick or two in the 20s? An additional second rounder or third rounder? What if we had that and a player who is right on the cusp of making the jump to the NHL? That is a hell of a place to move forward from and it doesn't preclude us from signing guys or seeking to be competitive sooner rather than later.

The reality is that even with a new coach, a big trade or some other "right now" move, this team is not in its window. But we can expedite the process for opening the next window, without trying to kid ourselves into hanging onto the belief that the old one is still open.
 

haveandare

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Jul 2, 2009
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I get what you're saying about the system and I agree 100%, but it's not like we didn't have the same coach and the same system last year when Smith looked really solid - it's like an alien who has never even watched a hockey game, much less played one invaded his body this year.
True. Same with... well, sort of everyone but Buch, Zbad, Fast, Shattenkirk in some situations and that's pretty much it.

I think AV losing the room is part of the difference as well as the league adapting to this sort of strategy, not necessarily because of us, but for other reasons that we're paying the price for. The same system can bring good and bad out in players depending on how much the team is buying into it and how the league is reacting to it.
 

JimmyG89

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May 1, 2010
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To go further into my last post:

The 2013-14 team is no more. From that roster you have: Hank, McDonagh, Zuke, Staal, Kreider, Nash. Miller and Hayes were add full time for 2014-15. They've been retooling for a few years, just in the background of being a "contender". This is effectively when Jeff Gorton took over team control. Before this offseason, we've been signing short term, inexpensive players from UFA or signing college players.

Brass for Mika, Stepan for Andersson and DeAngelo, Buyout of Girardi. The impending deadline trade of Nash, Grabner. Potentially buying out Staal. Every effort to become younger has been made and it's at the cost of wins now, but at the benefit of potential wins in the future. Gorton has actually done a lot with very little to bring in that youth. He's finally going to have the assets to get younger.

I'm of the opposite approach: the best is coming. The approach on the ice of the last 3 years has been one that is not going to derive success. Always out possessed, out chanced and outplayed, with goaltending and timely scoring being the only thing keeping the team afloat.

Gorton has to have seen this from afar and is slowly moving from that roster.

There is an absolute core to build with on the ice right now: Mika, Buchnevich, Skjei. That's it for now. Kreider is not a core piece based on age alone, but he's the 1st player outside of the core. I wouldn't trade either of those three without overpayment. Kreider is moved for the right price.

Andersson, Chytil, DeAngelo, Shestyorkin (or Wall/Huska), Pionk, Nieves, and Graves could join this core. Guys like Gettinger and Day are long off. I'm leaving out Miller. Hayes, and Vesey because IMO they are not core pieces on a championship team. I'm of the belief that if this team was really rebuilding, they should be sold to the highest bidder. Vesey is a 3rd liner. No issues with that, but I don't see a top 6 guy, but he still holds that value. Hayes will ask for too much money IMO and with our young centers coming, he's expendable. Same for Miller. Try and find a winger who can impact on offense like Buch.
 

pld459666

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Feb 27, 2002
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@Beacon

In 1998, the Rangers did not have the equivalent of:

Mika, Kreider, Miller, Buchnevich, Hayes, Fast, Vesey at forward. And that's not mentioning the two recent 1st rounders. Skjei and D'Angelo alone are better young players than the Rangers had on D back then. That's also not mentioning either Graves or Pionk.

The team today is so much better situated than the team was in 1998.
 

Edge

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@Beacon

In 1998, the Rangers did not have the equivalent of:

Mika, Kreider, Miller, Buchnevich, Hayes, Fast, Vesey at forward. And that's not mentioning the two recent 1st rounders. Skjei and D'Angelo alone are better young players than the Rangers had on D back then. That's also not mentioning either Graves or Pionk.

The team today is so much better situated than the team was in 1998.

You figure that the 1998 version of Mika projects as a 70-85 point player, and Kreider's 28 goals is easily 35-40 in that time period. Miller is probably a 30-35 goal, 65-75 point player in that era too. The Rangers would've killed to have that from a pair of 24 year olds and a 26 year old in 1998.
 

NickyFotiu

NYR 2024 Cup Champs!
Sep 29, 2011
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Bure was just a shell of himself, with both knees broken and his legendary speed nothing but a memory by the time he made it to New York.

No disrespect intended but I do not totally agree with your evaluation of Bure as a Ranger. Pavel Bure was like Bobby Orr in that he could still fly even though his knees were shot. Bure still had plenty of speed as a NY Ranger and was not a shell of himself when he was healthy enough to dress. It was not a good trade for us in hindsight but when Bure played he kicked butt for us. Its sad we only had him for around 50 games but watching him play in those games was amazing.
 

SlingshotVv

arm-bar all the things
Sep 28, 2009
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I still don't think a full blown rebuild is necessary. There are good young pieces on this hockey team mixed in with vets that are in the proper age range before they start to deteriorate. They’re in line for a lottery pick this season, so if they keep it up they should add another talent in a deeper draft. After that it should be a relatively quick turnaround with Chytil, Shesty, and Andersson waiting in the wings. If Buch and Mika keep this trajectory, that’s a bonafide top-line duo to carry the offense.

Long story short, I think we’re in line for a quick reset rather than a full rebuild. Get a new coach, instill a more modern system, and get ready for next year if we’re out of it by the end of this month. I don’t think we’re gonna get a Dahlin this year, but if they can draft a kid like Zadina, or hell even Svechnikov if he drops, they’ll be well on their way towards having a loaded nucleus hitting their prime once Shesty is wearing a Rangers sweater.

I think that’s kind of the thing about this thread. If it’s really time to rebuild, it’s too late to do a quick in depth turn around. Forcing many years of retooling until the cupboard doesn’t have the right pieces on the right deals to win a Cup while being a favorite for a decade or so.

Don’t know if I agree that this should be the plan going forward for this org, but it makes sense.
 

Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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@Beacon

In 1998, the Rangers did not have the equivalent of:

Mika, Kreider, Miller, Buchnevich, Hayes, Fast, Vesey at forward. And that's not mentioning the two recent 1st rounders. Skjei and D'Angelo alone are better young players than the Rangers had on D back then. That's also not mentioning either Graves or Pionk.

The team today is so much better situated than the team was in 1998.

The excitement around Cherneski was probably similar to Chytil. He went to Hartford for a few weeks as the last cut and expected to quickly go back up, but his knee was driven straight into the boards and crushed into little pieces. They showed the X-rays on MSG Network and it was insane, like a badly crumbled egg shell.

In 1998 we also drafted a safe, all-around center at #7, just as we did this summer. The difference is that while the Rangers "settled" for Lias because their favored guys didn't fall to them, Malhotra was the guy they really coveted and looked extremely happy to get.

Savard and Dube were viewed at the time as superior prospects to any prospect we have right now. Dan Cloutier was viewed as a very, very good goalie prospect, an heir apparent to Richter who will make the transition to the future very easy. Cloutier did very well when he got called up as Richter's backup in 1997-98. Copley was viewed similarly to Gropp. The Ferraro twins were viewed as similar to someone like Nieves, legit prospects with limited upside. (A few years earlier, the Ferraro twins were viewed as top prospects, but by 1998 the expectations were much lower.)

First rounder Jeff Brown was seen as a safe prospect. Neil Smith declared that while he won't be an All-Star, he'll definitely be a second pair guy. Next year he claimed that the Rangers think they stole Wes Jarvis in round 2 and he's definitely going to be a quality NHL defenseman. Burke Henry, the third rounder in 1997, had a crazy good season, scoring 83 points in 72 Junior games as a defensively-responsible 18-year-old defenseman. Some Ranger fans were also excited about Tomi Kallarsson based on his play in the Finnish Liiga as an 18-year-old. All these defensemen combined played 39 NHL games, but they were once viewed as really strong prospects.

With hindsight, nobody now will say, "but we had these great first rounders Malhotra, Brown, Cloutier and these amazing over-performing prospects like Dube and Henry!" I assure you plenty of our current prospects and rookies will turn into Malhotra, Brown and Dube.
 
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mrhockey193195

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The excitement around Cherneski was probably similar to Chytil...

Could not have said it myself. Brilliant post. Heck, let's not even go back that far. How many of us (I'm guilty, as charged) were head-over-heels in love with guys like Baranka, Dawes, Korpikoski, Dane Byers, Paiement, MA Cliche, Brodie Dupont, Sanguinetti, Kveton, etc.? Granted, we had some big hits in that period as well (Dubi, Cally, Staal, Sauer, etc.), but guys that we flagged as "can't-miss" definitely missed.
 

ReggieDunlop68

hey hanrahan!
Oct 4, 2008
14,441
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It’s a rebuild.
Today is 1998. Prepare for the Dark Ages.

Also, this is where I get confused.

2012 was 1992, 2013 was 1993, and 2014 was 1994, but we didn't win the cup in 2014, so then I was told that 2014 was really 1992, but in the sequence on 1993 because 2015 was 1994.

And now it's 1998?

Or are we in the 80s? The scoring isn't high enough though...


Is this the late 50s early 60s?!?

Someone help me!
 

Riche16

McCready guitar god
Aug 13, 2008
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The Dreaded Middle
The validity lies in whether people feel that top end, ELITE players are findable in other ways other than a bottom out.

There will always be a debate about that. Yeah Pitt and Cindy and Malkin and now Edm FINALLY has their piece... Tor also...

We always said w Hank we wouldn’t ever bottom out but even he can’t make up for what’s happening nightly and now he’s 35 and not ELITE anymore himself.

It does amaze me that we deal away 1st like nothing and then have 2 in one year and everyone wants to build around them. Maybe don’t give them away like candy anymore?
 
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Beacon

Embrace the tank
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Rebuilding works if you are committed to doing it 100%. No half measure retools. Those are the ones that don’t work.

This is a tl;dr verdion of what I wrote, except I wrote a long ecplanation citing why I think so baded on past experiences.
 
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Savant

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This is a tl;dr verdion of what I wrote, except I wrote a long ecplanation citing why I think so baded on past experiences.

Sure I am certainly in agreement. Teams only have certain open windows for contending, but teams also have certain obvious windows for rebuilding. The Ranger has their rebuild window this summer, and it opened after the Stepan trade. If after they do that, they keep going and pass on signing Shattenkirk and Smith; and then go further by trading McDonagh, Zuccarello, upcoming UFAs at the deadline, etc; suddenly you have a big market team with a ton of cap space, much more draft assets (in a better draft) and a clear plan.

The strength of this team is the young forwards that they have under contract. They haven’t drafted high enough to get a higher probability impact home grown player consistently. They have done a very smart job of working around that, using the NCAA and Euro market, but with the contending window closed they can be faulted for taking a step back to get higher end youth in. With all the additional cap space available from the moves discussed in the last paragraph, they can be major players in free agency without capping themselves out; but again, that window is closed. Now if they rebuild, they have 11m in cap tied up with the defensemen they signed. I do not feel that Gorton has a plan now. I don’t think he knows what direction to go in. AV still has a job, no one has been traded; they aren’t buying or selling, but they are far away from a Cup as they have been since the lockout. In a Salary Cap league, you have you preserve the cap and not over pay for third contracts based on past performances. That’s Cap 101.
 
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Off Sides

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Now if they rebuild, they have 11m in cap tied up with the defensemen they signed. I do not feel that Gorton has a plan now. I don’t think he knows what direction to go in. AV still has a job, no one has been traded; they aren’t buying or selling, but they are far away from a Cup as they have been since the lockout. In a Salary Cap league, you have you preserve the cap and not over pay for third contracts based on past performances. That’s Cap 101.

I agree, which is why a plan that takes them to when those contracts end needs to be considered. 4 years until all of the contracts to Lundqvist, Shattenkirk, Smith and Staal end. If they can get out from under them sooner that is fine, but realistically I don't think any team out there is really going to want any of those contracts, at least without retention or them sending back a contract they do not want.

Commit to a 4 year plan, not that the 5th year is going to be amazing or even good but it sets them up to have another possible long window up and coming should they make more right moves than wrong ones in between.
 

Ori

#Connor Bedard 2023 1st, Chicago Blackhawks
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Rebuilding works if you are committed to doing it 100%. No half measure retools. Those are the ones that don’t work.
Yeah email Gorton and get it done - and do things properly, but then we need to expect a bumpy season and don`t be grumpy about a loss since Rangers aiming for the #1 pick with Rasmus Dahlin. :)

Beginning in this topic I debated against moving anyone at the moment, but more I think about it concerning the future and Rangers. How can they afford Zucc & Ryan Mc. contracts in two years concerning market value? (It`ll be very difficult)

So it make sense based on Gorton`s summer window - to continue on that road move valuable pieces - get early 2018 picks, and talent in return in a good draft year as well. We can discuss this.. But what I question most in the franchise policy. It don`t look like that all are working in the same direction within the org. because AV want to reach playoffs with the current core - while Gorton aiming for a rebuild and future in our last summer window. So it will be much more difficult to compete for the coach AV - if u guys understand hence we are in the bottom of our division so far this season.

And both Oilers & Rangers are struggling so I`ve notion something will happen before the window close.
 
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Savant

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Yeah email Gorton and get it done - and do things properly, but then we need to expect a bumpy season and don`t be grumpy about a loss since Rangers aiming for the #1 pick with Rasmus Dahlin. :)

Beginning in this topic I debated against moving anyone at the moment, but more I think about it concerning the future and Rangers. How can they afford Zucc & Ryan Mc. contracts in two years concerning market value? (It`ll be very difficult)

So it make sense based on Gorton`s summer window - to continue on that road move valuable pieces - get early 2018 picks, and talent in return in a good draft year as well. We can discuss this, but what I question most in the franchise policy. It don`t look like that all are working in the same direction within the org. because AV want to reach playoffs with the current core - while Gorton aiming for a rebuild in our last summer window. So it will be much more difficult to compete for the coach if u guys understand hence we are in the bottom of our division so far this season.

People are grumpy because they were supposed to be good. Smith was supposed to play like the playoff version of Smith not the Detroit version and Shattenkirk and McDonagh was supposed to be their best pairing.

It’s like Gorton wanted to rebuild then changed his mind when he heard Shattenkirk would take less years then anticipated. Which is dumb because Stepan was already traded at that point. If DeAngelo doesn’t turn out that Stepan trade has the potential to look bad. As I have said, I don’t have a problem with the Andersson pick in a vacuum, but it’s also possible that the Rangers traded for the 7th pick in a draft with six top players in it, and they were all gone by then; not that it’s the Rangers fault the Coyotes didn’t pick higher, and no one above them wanted Stepan (although I do they they could have done a similar deal with Vegas). All that being said things can sour for Gorton quickly if it turns out this was a bad summer for him.
 
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Ori

#Connor Bedard 2023 1st, Chicago Blackhawks
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Yes, I agree with u for sure, @Savant. It was a bit unfortunate about the summer window, but we need to think positive.
I admit it`s hard for me as fan though since I like players too much, but I understand the asset management concerning value, and get a good value in return for those players and something to build on beyond 2018 draft.
 

Edge

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The excitement around Cherneski was probably similar to Chytil. He went to Hartford for a few weeks as the last cut and expected to quickly go back up, but his knee was driven straight into the boards and crushed into little pieces. They showed the X-rays on MSG Network and it was insane, like a badly crumbled egg shell.

In 1998 we also drafted a safe, all-around center at #7, just as we did this summer. The difference is that while the Rangers "settled" for Lias because their favored guys didn't fall to them, Malhotra was the guy they really coveted and looked extremely happy to get.

Savard and Dube were viewed at the time as superior prospects to any prospect we have right now. Dan Cloutier was viewed as a very, very good goalie prospect, an heir apparent to Richter who will make the transition to the future very easy. Cloutier did very well when he got called up as Richter's backup in 1997-98. Copley was viewed similarly to Gropp. The Ferraro twins were viewed as similar to someone like Nieves, legit prospects with limited upside. (A few years earlier, the Ferraro twins were viewed as top prospects, but by 1998 the expectations were much lower.)

First rounder Jeff Brown was seen as a safe prospect. Neil Smith declared that while he won't be an All-Star, he'll definitely be a second pair guy. Next year he claimed that the Rangers think they stole Wes Jarvis in round 2 and he's definitely going to be a quality NHL defenseman. Burke Henry, the third rounder in 1997, had a crazy good season, scoring 83 points in 72 Junior games as a defensively-responsible 18-year-old defenseman. Some Ranger fans were also excited about Tomi Kallarsson based on his play in the Finnish Liiga as an 18-year-old. All these defensemen combined played 39 NHL games, but they were once viewed as really strong prospects.

With hindsight, nobody now will say, "but we had these great first rounders Malhotra, Brown, Cloutier and these amazing over-performing prospects like Dube and Henry!" I assure you plenty of our current prospects and rookies will turn into Malhotra, Brown and Dube.

I hear where you're coming from, but I can't say I totally agree.

For starters, even if we exclude all the recent draft picks and all of them bust, in 1998 we still didn't have an equivalent for Zibanejad, Kreider, Miller, Hayes, Vesey, and Fast. In fact those 1998 Rangers would've loved to have had 24, 26, 24, 25, 24 and 25 year players in those roles. That also doesn't take into account a 1998 equivalent of having 28 year old defensemen in McD and Shattenkirk, or a 23 year old version of Skjei.

My disagreement with the analogy is that it assumes the Rangers hopes completely rely on the unknown and doesn't take into that we have quite a few pieces that are certainly still young enough to be a part of the future. If we were completely relying on Andersson and Chytil, then that would be a different scenario altogether.

If we backtrack and include our current group of prospects, I think there are also several fundamental differences.

I disagree with the assessment that Savard and Dube were viewed more highly than what we have now. And I do that based on two factors, I was working for the Rangers at the time, and I was also writing for HockeysFuture. In 1998, Christian Dube was already struggling to adjust to the AHL, and Marc Savard was a bit of a wildcard because of both his size and his skating - he was not viewed as sure thing, though I was particularly high on him going back to his days in Oshawa. Randy Copley was somewhat viewed similarly to Gropp, though his ranking within that system was much higher than Gropp's is now - which is actually an argument illustrating how the two time periods were different.

Jeff Brown was a bust almost immediately after he was drafted and had actually fallen hard in the 1996 draft after being considered as potential top pick just a few years before. By the time he turned pro in 1998, he was sent to the ECHL, which was not seen nearly in the same light that it is today. Burke Henry hadn't turned pro yet either, so all his success was still in the WHL. Manny Malhotra was just starting the process. In 1998, there was no Chytil turning heads in the AHL as its youngest player either. The Rangers would've killed for that.

Compare that to today, where we already have Skjei who made the jump, Graves who is knocking on the door (something Henry never got close to with the Rangers) and a guy like Pionk is also in the fold. Sean Day might be the closest to a 2017/18 comparable to Jeff Brown, and he's arguably fourth on our list of defenseman under the age of 25, as opposed to Brown possibly being second.

Chytil is doing well against pro competition in the AHL and Andersson is doing the same in Sweden.

The key difference being that these kids are actually responding against pro-level competition, whereas the players your citing hadn't yet turned pro in some cases and were playing against fellow teenagers. That's a pretty sizeable difference. And again, the Rangers long-term outlook isn't solely dependent on what we did at the 2017 draft. We have significantly more talent that could figure into our plans in 2-3 years, and if not, they have more than enough talent and results to land us even younger players who could.

Point being, I just don't see the comparison. The depth wasn't there, there were several guys who were not as far along as some of our guys are, and there wasn't nearly the 28 and under talent on the 1998 roster that there is on this one. If we're going to compare this time period to any, I'd say 2010 is a bit closer. We still had the Callahan, Dubinsky, Staal and Girardi, with guys like Kreider, Del Zotto, McD, and others coming up on the horizon.
 

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