Beacon
Embrace the tank
- May 28, 2007
- 13,676
- 1,454
You always hear that rebuilding by tanking does not work. Look at the Oilers, they had 3 first overall picks and still sucked until they got McDavid. Still, it is only because rebuilding never happens at the right time.
Inevitably, teams wait until the house has completely burned down and nothing remains. It was obvious to even a casual Rangers fan in 1998 that the team is going down, it was old and had only a few prospects, not enough to replace the aging vets. But the team still had some assets, so the Rangers doubled up and ran after free agents like Kamensky and Quintal who did little except cash their checks. Even older guys who worked out (LaFontaine) still did little to lift the team. Bure was just a shell of himself, with both knees broken and his legendary speed nothing but a memory by the time he made it to New York. The Rangers payroll skyrockets to $72 million in the late 1990s when most teams paid less than half of that.
They could've traded the 30-year-old Leetch and Graves, as well as Richter, 31, Beukeboom, 32, Kevin Stevens, 32, Driver, 35. Instead, they dealt Skrudland and Keane for Todd Harvey, a young role player, and declared that this is all the rebuilding that is required.
By the time the Rangers were ready to start rebuilding half a dozen years later, all their valuable assets either retired, left or were on their last legs. The farm was empty and the only pimped prospect was Tyutin. (Though some of us on the AOL Prospects Board discussed Lundqvist, he was not yet viewed as a future star.) With Messier weeks from retirement and the lockout looming, the Rangers dumped their roster for a bunch of second rounders, a mid-first and some marginal prospects.
The result was as expected: the mid-first became a middling NHLer (Korpikoski) and the 4 second rounders produced 1 NHLer (Dubinsky), which is actually a little better than the average of 1 in 5 second rounders becoming NHLers. However, a pair of middle-6 forwards does not rebuild a team from scratch.
Even two top-3 overall picks, if they don't become Kane/Toews or Crosby/Malkin won't rebuild the team. There are 19 guys who play every game. Adding a few average NHLers won't fix anything, so unless you get really lucky - really lucky even by top-3 draft pick standards - you won't succeed and will continue to draft early until you hit a generational talent or finally draft 15 "interchangeable parts" (90s Devils with four second lines and 6 top-4 defensemen). Either way, it is likely to take a long time unless you get lucky the first year your team collapses with a generational talent available that particular year.
To save his job, the GM of the awful team will inevitably pimp the top draftees as saviors. Just wait a year or two until Taylor Hall or RNH will save us... but of course, most early picks will not become saviors who can make up for the disaster down the lineup. After a few years, the fans will catch on and demand that the GM do something because drafting early has not (yet) worked, so therefore, it can never work and we need a new plan. The desperate GM starts to make youth-for-age moves that prevent him from having a shot to land more good (even if not great) players drafted early and instead trades away assets: e.g., Isles trading for Vanek, Moulson, Boychuk, Visnovsky. This won't work because it cannot work because the team is not an asset or two away from contention, but it temporarily pacifies the fans who view it as the turning of the corner. But rather than the light at the end of the tunnel, it is the oncoming train that destroys the team's future. The Isles needed several more years of dumping vets for prospects and draft picks, but instead traded away their future in a desperate attempt to change their luck.
In the Rangers case, it worked out a little better because of two incredible strokes of luck. First, a little-known 7th rounder, a guy who wasn't even the best talent in his family, wasn't the first goalie drafted by the Rangers that year, not even the best prospect named Lundqvist that the Rangers had, he somehow becomes a Hall of Famer, arguably the best player the Rangers ever had. If that was not enough, Slats pulls off an incredible heist and acquires our future captain and #1 defenseman in return for an overpaid, underperforming UFA. For both of these events to happen during the same rebuild by a team is a once-in-a-lifetime luck. And yet, the Rangers never won the Cup. They had a Cinderella run to the SCF, but few gave them a realistic shot to win the Cup, and they were bounced out in 5 games, OT or not.
Without Lundqvist and McDonagh, the Rangers would find themselves out of the playoffs the vast majority of the years since they attempted their 2004 rebuild. Getting a couple of middle-6 forwards just won't do the trick. Of course, it could've been different. The 30-year-old Leetch and Graves had terrific value, as did Richter, LaFontaine and Beuk, and even Stevens, Berg, Driver, Ulf Samuelsson and Tim Sweeney could've brought back similar values to what Rucinsky, de Vries, Malakhov, Nedved, Kovalev, Barnaby, Simon brought us in 2004.
Sure, Stevens and Driver weren't going to get you top picks, but sometimes quantity creates quality. In 2003, the Rangers made a little-known transaction sending Messier's rights to San Jose for a 4th round pick, which also allowed the Sharks to get some compensation. Nobody remembers this trade, but we sure remember the guy the Rangers drafted with this pick - captain Ryan Callahan. Not a superstar, not a savior, but a very useful "interchangeable part" which in enough quantity can create a good team.
Had the Rangers traded their stars when they were still 30-32 years old, they would've gotten massive value. A 1998-99 tank along with acquiring early draft picks would mean no need to trade away assets to acquire Brendl and Lundmark. Maybe we'd still get stuck with those two busts (or maybe not), but at least we'd probably still have Marc Savard, who after we dealt him away developed into a 100-point NHLer, one of the premier playmakers in the league with 63-74 assists per season for 4 straight years.
We'd also have kept our 2000 first rounder (traded along with Savard for Lundmark) and our 2002 first (Bure). We don't know how these picks would turn out, nor what would happen to the prospects and picks that came for the relatively young Leetch, Richter, Graves, etc. But statistically, we probably would've gotten something very significant. With the large number of picks, some of them very early, maybe we would've drafted Kovalchuk, Spezza, Eric Staal, Bouwmeester. Sure, I'm just guessing here, but unless you're just totally incompetent, a few very early picks along with a ton of late firsts and seconds will means you will sooner or later stumble upon both quality and quantity.
Add to the draftees the guys we already had in Savard, Kovalev, Sundstrom, Harvey, and maybe a little bit of luck in Lundqvist, and it's a whole different ball game. By the second lockout, the team would be ready to roll and the addition of Lundqvist at that point would propel it to immediate Cup contention with a very young roster.
So yes, rebuilding doesn't work. Unless you do it early enough when you still have some young assets for the future and some veteran assets still young enough to bring in a massive haul back.
Today is 1998. Just like then we have a few good prospects and some promising youth. Just as we could've gotten a massive haul for our not-yet-ancient vets in 1998, we can get a lot for McDonagh, MZA, Nash, Grabner. We could make some painful moves and sit on a half a dozen first round picks in the next 2 drafts, including 2 early ones we'd "earn" ourselves. In fact, we probably have a little more young players and prospects right now than we did in 1998, so we're starting a bit ahead and could do some great things if we truly rebuild.
But, of course, we won't. We'll trade Skrudland and Keane for Harvey, then Mike Eastwood for Harry York, and call it a rebuild on the fly. After all, it worked out so well last time that we must do it again. Except I highly doubt that in the coming years we'll get a Hall of Famer out of our 7th rounders plus 1D in a trade for an overpaid scrub. As our prospects will join the Rangers in the coming years, our young vets (McDonagh, Shatty, MZA) will start to slow down on the wrong side of the big 3-0, and our older vets (Nash, Lundqvist) will become nothing but memories. Our current crop of prospects will NOT be good enough to replace our vets as they retire or at least slow down.
Today is 1998. Prepare for the Dark Ages.
Inevitably, teams wait until the house has completely burned down and nothing remains. It was obvious to even a casual Rangers fan in 1998 that the team is going down, it was old and had only a few prospects, not enough to replace the aging vets. But the team still had some assets, so the Rangers doubled up and ran after free agents like Kamensky and Quintal who did little except cash their checks. Even older guys who worked out (LaFontaine) still did little to lift the team. Bure was just a shell of himself, with both knees broken and his legendary speed nothing but a memory by the time he made it to New York. The Rangers payroll skyrockets to $72 million in the late 1990s when most teams paid less than half of that.
They could've traded the 30-year-old Leetch and Graves, as well as Richter, 31, Beukeboom, 32, Kevin Stevens, 32, Driver, 35. Instead, they dealt Skrudland and Keane for Todd Harvey, a young role player, and declared that this is all the rebuilding that is required.
By the time the Rangers were ready to start rebuilding half a dozen years later, all their valuable assets either retired, left or were on their last legs. The farm was empty and the only pimped prospect was Tyutin. (Though some of us on the AOL Prospects Board discussed Lundqvist, he was not yet viewed as a future star.) With Messier weeks from retirement and the lockout looming, the Rangers dumped their roster for a bunch of second rounders, a mid-first and some marginal prospects.
The result was as expected: the mid-first became a middling NHLer (Korpikoski) and the 4 second rounders produced 1 NHLer (Dubinsky), which is actually a little better than the average of 1 in 5 second rounders becoming NHLers. However, a pair of middle-6 forwards does not rebuild a team from scratch.
Even two top-3 overall picks, if they don't become Kane/Toews or Crosby/Malkin won't rebuild the team. There are 19 guys who play every game. Adding a few average NHLers won't fix anything, so unless you get really lucky - really lucky even by top-3 draft pick standards - you won't succeed and will continue to draft early until you hit a generational talent or finally draft 15 "interchangeable parts" (90s Devils with four second lines and 6 top-4 defensemen). Either way, it is likely to take a long time unless you get lucky the first year your team collapses with a generational talent available that particular year.
To save his job, the GM of the awful team will inevitably pimp the top draftees as saviors. Just wait a year or two until Taylor Hall or RNH will save us... but of course, most early picks will not become saviors who can make up for the disaster down the lineup. After a few years, the fans will catch on and demand that the GM do something because drafting early has not (yet) worked, so therefore, it can never work and we need a new plan. The desperate GM starts to make youth-for-age moves that prevent him from having a shot to land more good (even if not great) players drafted early and instead trades away assets: e.g., Isles trading for Vanek, Moulson, Boychuk, Visnovsky. This won't work because it cannot work because the team is not an asset or two away from contention, but it temporarily pacifies the fans who view it as the turning of the corner. But rather than the light at the end of the tunnel, it is the oncoming train that destroys the team's future. The Isles needed several more years of dumping vets for prospects and draft picks, but instead traded away their future in a desperate attempt to change their luck.
In the Rangers case, it worked out a little better because of two incredible strokes of luck. First, a little-known 7th rounder, a guy who wasn't even the best talent in his family, wasn't the first goalie drafted by the Rangers that year, not even the best prospect named Lundqvist that the Rangers had, he somehow becomes a Hall of Famer, arguably the best player the Rangers ever had. If that was not enough, Slats pulls off an incredible heist and acquires our future captain and #1 defenseman in return for an overpaid, underperforming UFA. For both of these events to happen during the same rebuild by a team is a once-in-a-lifetime luck. And yet, the Rangers never won the Cup. They had a Cinderella run to the SCF, but few gave them a realistic shot to win the Cup, and they were bounced out in 5 games, OT or not.
Without Lundqvist and McDonagh, the Rangers would find themselves out of the playoffs the vast majority of the years since they attempted their 2004 rebuild. Getting a couple of middle-6 forwards just won't do the trick. Of course, it could've been different. The 30-year-old Leetch and Graves had terrific value, as did Richter, LaFontaine and Beuk, and even Stevens, Berg, Driver, Ulf Samuelsson and Tim Sweeney could've brought back similar values to what Rucinsky, de Vries, Malakhov, Nedved, Kovalev, Barnaby, Simon brought us in 2004.
Sure, Stevens and Driver weren't going to get you top picks, but sometimes quantity creates quality. In 2003, the Rangers made a little-known transaction sending Messier's rights to San Jose for a 4th round pick, which also allowed the Sharks to get some compensation. Nobody remembers this trade, but we sure remember the guy the Rangers drafted with this pick - captain Ryan Callahan. Not a superstar, not a savior, but a very useful "interchangeable part" which in enough quantity can create a good team.
Had the Rangers traded their stars when they were still 30-32 years old, they would've gotten massive value. A 1998-99 tank along with acquiring early draft picks would mean no need to trade away assets to acquire Brendl and Lundmark. Maybe we'd still get stuck with those two busts (or maybe not), but at least we'd probably still have Marc Savard, who after we dealt him away developed into a 100-point NHLer, one of the premier playmakers in the league with 63-74 assists per season for 4 straight years.
We'd also have kept our 2000 first rounder (traded along with Savard for Lundmark) and our 2002 first (Bure). We don't know how these picks would turn out, nor what would happen to the prospects and picks that came for the relatively young Leetch, Richter, Graves, etc. But statistically, we probably would've gotten something very significant. With the large number of picks, some of them very early, maybe we would've drafted Kovalchuk, Spezza, Eric Staal, Bouwmeester. Sure, I'm just guessing here, but unless you're just totally incompetent, a few very early picks along with a ton of late firsts and seconds will means you will sooner or later stumble upon both quality and quantity.
Add to the draftees the guys we already had in Savard, Kovalev, Sundstrom, Harvey, and maybe a little bit of luck in Lundqvist, and it's a whole different ball game. By the second lockout, the team would be ready to roll and the addition of Lundqvist at that point would propel it to immediate Cup contention with a very young roster.
So yes, rebuilding doesn't work. Unless you do it early enough when you still have some young assets for the future and some veteran assets still young enough to bring in a massive haul back.
Today is 1998. Just like then we have a few good prospects and some promising youth. Just as we could've gotten a massive haul for our not-yet-ancient vets in 1998, we can get a lot for McDonagh, MZA, Nash, Grabner. We could make some painful moves and sit on a half a dozen first round picks in the next 2 drafts, including 2 early ones we'd "earn" ourselves. In fact, we probably have a little more young players and prospects right now than we did in 1998, so we're starting a bit ahead and could do some great things if we truly rebuild.
But, of course, we won't. We'll trade Skrudland and Keane for Harvey, then Mike Eastwood for Harry York, and call it a rebuild on the fly. After all, it worked out so well last time that we must do it again. Except I highly doubt that in the coming years we'll get a Hall of Famer out of our 7th rounders plus 1D in a trade for an overpaid scrub. As our prospects will join the Rangers in the coming years, our young vets (McDonagh, Shatty, MZA) will start to slow down on the wrong side of the big 3-0, and our older vets (Nash, Lundqvist) will become nothing but memories. Our current crop of prospects will NOT be good enough to replace our vets as they retire or at least slow down.
Today is 1998. Prepare for the Dark Ages.
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