Why do President Trophy winning teams almost never win the cup?

[Varan]

Nashville can lock up the trophy tonight, and they are one of the cup favourites. But when I checked its history, since it was established in 85-86', only 8/31 teams that won the PT, won the cup. That is a 26% winning rate; 2 in the last 12 years as a comparison.

Going even further, only 11 teams that have won the PT have actually reached the cup final (8 winners, 3 losses), a winning % of 35.

Why is that? They are usually the best team in hockey, so you would expect a better winning %.

Will Nashville fall into the trap?

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[TOGuy14]

Well 16 teams make the playoffs meaning that each has a 6.25% chance of winning the Cup.

You just told us that PT winners have a 26% win rate, 4x that of any other team going in. I would say that is pretty damn impressive given the randomness of the POs

 

[rent free]

do the usually go cold heading into the playoffs?

 

[StrangeVision]

Winning the Cup is a pretty brutal and difficult endeavor.

 

[Church Hill]

Because hockey has a ton of luck and the level of parity is insane. I would say that the better team wins the series maybe about 65% of the time. So if you're the better team in all 4 series, you still only have a ~18% chance of winning it all. And that 65% figure is probably generous. Not sure what the home win rate is in the playoffs but I'd be surprised if it was higher than that number I just pulled out of my ass.

 

[TheMule93]

They win the cup more often than the next 15 teams

 

[Hint1k]

President Trophy winners win SC practically every 5th year.
Exactly every 5th since the season 2001-2002.
BTW this year is the 5th since the last PT winner did it.
Basically Nashville can plan the parade.

 

[george14]

It's a flawed question because 16 teams make it, while the President Trophy winner wins the Cup more than anyone else.

Hockey is a brutal sport and people get injured. Not to mention, it's usually the team with a hot goalie that wins. You are playing a team anywhere from 4-7 straight games. If your team has an elite sniper like Ovechkin or Laine, it's a lot easier to eliminate them opposed to teams with playmakers that are multi-faceted. You force the guys who are not used to scoring, score more goals.

Same goes for teams with meh goaltending. They will be exposed come playoff time.

 

[ViktorBaeArvidsson]

Worked too hard during the season and have no energy for the playoffs? Regular season and playoffs are two completely different beasts.

 

[LAKings88]

I think teams fighting to get in are already going in playoff mode.

No other real explanation tho.

 

[Firsov99]

They simply don't peak at the right time. Energy is wasted to getting a lot of points early in the season.

 

[Canes]

82 games vs 28 games in the playoffs at most. It's a sample size thing more than anything else, IMO. Also the way the playoffs are set up. Good team that runs into a slightly less good team but one that can outplay you over 4-7 games? You're done regardless of how well you would play against the other playoff teams.

 

[Mikeshane]

They win the Cup a lot, please explain how you think winning the cup 8 out of 31 times against a 15 team field of other playoff teams is somehow a bad thing.

 

[DJJones]

26% out of 16 teams seems like a very good record.

This isn't basketball​

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Because every game is a new game. Past success does not guarantee future success.

 

[Ocoee]

Pretty much every team has a weakness. To win the cup you have to play 4 different teams. All it takes is for a team to match up against the wrong team Or if injuries happen that will completely change everything. For instance (Neither team was a presidents trophy winner, this is just an example), Tampa and Pittsburgh have met two times in the playoffs. The first meeting, Crosby and Malkin were out and Tampa won in 7. The second meeting, Bishop and Stamkos were out and Pittsburgh won in 7. Match ups, luck, and injuries play a huge role in who wins.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

They win the cup more often than any other seed.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I mean look at Nashville. It's a solid team. But is it really dominant compared to everyone else? Other teams have elite players and good depth too. Like half of the teams in the playoffs are going to be 100+ point teams in the regular season. So that at most ends up being like a 15 point differential to Nashville. It's not that much when you consider it's over 82 games and some teams might have started slower than others.

This is true most years with the presidents trophy winners. You could say it's the best team in the league, but they might not be the best team in the playoffs. That's how close the top teams in the NHL are.

But like ppl have mentioned they have the best odds still.

 

[BonMorrison]

This is why I don’t want my Preds to win it.

 

[aufheben]

I'm curious what sort of answer you were expecting?

 

[Rec T]

Because regular season & playoff games are two completely different things. If you win the PT do you have a good team, absolutely. What you may not have though is a good enough team to beat someone playing them back to back to back to back (& maybe 3 more times). What you can get away with only facing one team a couple of times per season you won't if they find a weakness & can exploit it. Two completely different ways to play hockey.

And like others have mentioned repeatedly, the PT winner tends to have the best odds of actually winning the SC...shrug

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

But a 26% win rate is really good???

 

[Walter Sobchak]

Winning the Cup is a pretty brutal and difficult endeavor.

This.

Also, it's about health and chemistry heading into the playoffs. Some teams peak mid year. Then there is the hot goalie factor, that can tip any series heavily in a teams favor regardless of regular season success.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

1) There is no shootout or 3v3(/4v4) OT in the playoffs, but those two things affect the President's Trophy

2) The President's Trophy is mostly just luck. PDO dominates NHL results.

 

[Evincar]

People put too much emphasis on who wins it. Not much difference from the PT winner than the #1 seed in the other conference.