Why do President Trophy winning teams almost never win the cup?

[Not So Mighty]

Yeah this so called curse is fake news. The President's Trophy winner has won the Cup more than any other seed (2-16). It's not a curse. If anything statistics are on your side.

 

[johnnybbadd]

The odds are just random percentages. The true answer is that playoff hockey becomes a game of matchups because it is the first time all season that a team will play another team more than 2 consecutive times. From that come many factors like health, goaltending, power play, penalty killing and the usual hot and cold streaks that players have get magnified tremendously.Finally when you get it right and win in the opening round. You start again and repeat 3 more times. Hardest trophy to win in sports for sure.

 

[acor]

People put too much emphasis on who wins it. Not much difference from the PT winner than the #1 seed in the other conference.

Its funny, but since estabilishing of President Trophy, #1 seed in opposite conference won total ONE Stanley Cup (Lightning in 2004...). BTW- this is something I find really weird...

 

[Rorschach]

One take no one has made...

...the trade deadline.

If your team is doing ok but not great, that's when most GM go shopping for a significant piece that was missing. If it works out, and it often doesn't but sometime it does, that team begins to perform much better than the first half record.

That's certainly a huge factor in 2012 for the Kings. The team they were at the beginning of the season that couldn't score was very different when they acquired a scorer in Carter, unloaded a poor possession defenseman in Johnson and swapped in Slava Voynov. Basically in one deal, Kings improved two key positions.

Kings began to win a lot of games and squeaked in to the playoffs competing with several hot teams. But they lost so many games earlier so adding that first half plus the second half only equaled an 8th seed ranking.

 

[Tomas W]

Its the parity. There is several teams that is just as good as Nashville.

 

[Fogelhund]

They win the cup more often than any other seed.

I wonder, is that actually true?

How often over that period has each seed actually won? It would be interesting to see the numbers.

 

[Shockmaster]

26% is not "almost never". That's over a quarter of the time! Much, much more than the average 1/16 odds.

I'd stay that stat begs the question, "why does the President's Trophy winner go on to win the Cup at such a high rate?".

Historically that may be true, but I'm assuming this thread was created with a scope limited to more recent history.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Its fun to knock off the top seed. Teams put in a little bit more for the presidents trophy winners.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

another factor is some of the Presidents Trophy winners the last decade or so have had inflated point totals from beating up on a bad division.

Like the Canucks and the Caps in the old southeast division.

but really, this is what you get with parity. more teams pushed towards a middle means more teams can be another in a series

 

[BiolaRunner]

Because the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy in sports to win. An already physical game rises in intensity.

 

[JETZZZ]

Attrition is a part of it. Some of the best players are worn out or just playing injured by the time the playoffs roll around.
Also, the referees seem to tilt the game as much as they can to keep a series close, giving the underdog more chances to upset. Im expecting the vast majority of each playoff series to go to 6-7 games. It makes sense though, trying to force as many game 7s as possible means more playoff game tickets the league can sell. Tickets that can cost wayyyy more than any regular season game.

 

[dr robbie]

People are silly if they think winning the PT reduces their team's chance at a Cup. The number 1 seed (PT winner) is the most likely of all 16 teams in the playoffs to win the Cup. No, it doesn't guarantee it and the field of 15 teams is obviously more likely to win than the best individual team. But the point still remains that, of the teams in the playoffs, the PT winner is the most likely individual team to win it all. What more would you want?

 

[KingsFan7824]

From 86-94, pre-free agency being a huge deal, the average finish of a Cup winner was 4th overall. From 95-04, the wild no cap days where money ruled, it was 3rd overall. From 06-17, it's been 5th overall.

So, I guess Vegas it is then.

 

[fsanford]

People look at the point totals, too much, should just look at wins, Nashville is not the best team if you go by ROW.

You get nothing for ties at the end of regulation the Cup Playoff, those 1 pointers you got during the season don't mean anything.

 

[SavageSteve]

I guess it depends on the importance an organization puts on winning it. As a fan, I've had angst because I want it to be a given and not have uncertainty because of how incredible it was in Nashville last spring during the Pred's run to the Finals.

What I've heard repeatedly ad nauseam here in NashVegas is that they were mainly playing for home ice to be able to determine the match-ups for the majority of the games. They have a ton of depth and have been able to rotate players out for maintenance and built chemistry in a tough division playing teams in or near playoff contention the last couple of weeks. The only hitches have been the Buffalo and Florida games where they played down to the competition; but against teams with structure they've played against them very well and at elite levels for stretches. I feel like our coaches and players have their heads on right, have depth, and can make adjustments in a series to counter and overcome new wrinkles teams throw at them.

However, at this point, anything less than a parade down Lower Broadway with the team toting a big shiny Cup will be a disappointment. That's the only danger I see in this fan base that's ballooned up in the last few years; but hanging banners like the Preds earned last night that has never been done before in the 20 years the franchise has existed, might placate them a bit... but we as a City/fanbase all have a bloodlust for the banner we really want to raise after watching Crosby hoist it on our own ice left a bad taste in our mouths.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Its the parity. There is several teams that is just as good as Nashville.

I think these teams can beat Nashville in a 7 game series Winnipeg Vegas San Jose Anaheim L.A. Minnesota st Louis Colorado. My point is any team can get hot and any goalie can get hot. One of the main reasons I love hockey. The parity is awesome. You just never know. Yea there are favorites but the favorites lose all the time. That's why I tell people, I love football basketball and baseball, but there is nothing like some playoff hockey

 

[KingsFan7824]

People look at the point totals, too much, should just look at wins, Nashville is not the best team if you go by ROW.

You get nothing for ties at the end of regulation the Cup Playoff, those 1 pointers you got during the season don't mean anything.

Shouldn't even go by ROW. 3v3 OT is chaos.

If you by regulation wins, it's:
Winnipeg, 42
Nashville, 41
Tampa Bay, 41
Boston, 40
Vegas, 39

 

[fsanford]

I think these teams can beat Nashville in a 7 game series Winnipeg Vegas San Jose Anaheim L.A. Minnesota st Louis Colorado. My point is any team can get hot and any goalie can get hot. One of the main reasons I love hockey. The parity is awesome. You just never know. Yea there are favorites but the favorites lose all the time. That's why I tell people, I love football basketball and baseball, but there is nothing like some playoff hockey

A Hot Goalie can stop the best teams, a guy like Gibson, Flower, Quick, Jones, Dubnyk, if they are on can shut down any team.

Nashville was the hunter last year this year they are the hunted, they could win it all or they could get knocked out in the first round, though I don't think either Avs or Blues have a goalie that can steal a series, but stranger things have happened.

Also match ups, Ducks/Kings are gonna beat the crap out of you, so you may survive, but lots of ice will be needed.

This is why I think Winnipeg is my favorite, they are a pretty big physical top 10 in hits I believe, and they have lots of high skill offense as well.

A Preds/Jets series, would be pretty fun to watch.

 

[SavageSteve]

I think these teams can beat Nashville in a 7 game series Winnipeg Vegas San Jose Anaheim L.A. Minnesota st Louis Colorado. My point is any team can get hot and any goalie can get hot. One of the main reasons I love hockey. The parity is awesome. You just never know. Yea there are favorites but the favorites lose all the time. That's why I tell people, I love football basketball and baseball, but there is nothing like some playoff hockey

I learned the hot goalie thing the hard way in '91 when Jon Casey took the sub-.500 Minnesota NorthStars past Keenan's Blackhawks, a Blues team with Brett Hull and the blueline anchored by Scott Stevens, and Messier's Edmonton Oilers before falling to the Penguins.

I will say that Winnipeg has my attention as a potential series for the Preds that both teams may have nothing left after playing 6-7 games with the winner limping damaged into the next round. I really felt that Minnesota before Suter went down had it in them to take out the Jets fast though; but Dubnyk is a wild card still for making it a 6-7 game series...

 

[IamNotADancer]

I feel like this thread pops up every year.

The real question is, why do runner-up teams not win the Cup more than Presidents Trophy winners?

 

[goonybird]

I mean, you can point to any of the other 15 slots and ask the same question and it'd be more valid

 

[dubgeek]

So, I did the math.

In the Presidents Cup era (that's 31 Stanley Cup playoffs) the winning percentages by regular season finishing rank are:

By League rank

Rank	First	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh	Eighth	Ninth	Tenth	Eleventh	Twelvth	Thirteenth	Fourteent	Fifteenth	Sixteenth
Cup Wins	8	3	3	5	2	2	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Percentage	25.81%	9.68%	9.68%	16.13%	6.45%	6.45%	12.90%	3.23%	3.23%	3.23%	0	0	3.23%	0	0	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

By Conference rank

Rank	First	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh	Eighth
Cup Wins	9	10	3	4	3	1	0	1
Percentage	29.03%	32.26%	9.68%	12.90%	9.68%	3.23%	0.00%	3.23%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Sure, if you add ALL 15 of the other rankings you have more Cup winners, but the League first seed still has the highest individual winning percentage by almost ten percentage points over the next closest - 4th. I think what this shows is you REALLY want to end the season in top 4 in the league.

I think it comes down to how a team gets to the Presidents Trophy in any given year. I haven't done the research, but my gut tells me that the earlier in the season a team clinches the President's trophy the less likely they are to win the Cup as they may end the regular season on cruise control, so to speak, rather than playing for something, and find it difficult to ramp up to playoff intensity.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

another factor is some of the Presidents Trophy winners the last decade or so have had inflated point totals from beating up on a bad division.

Like the Canucks and the Caps in the old southeast division.

This is off topic, but it's not true for the Canucks, particularly for the 2010/11 team. They actually had a similar (higher?) rate of point accrual OUTSIDE of their division.

 

[TropicalFruitGirl2]

IMO, President's trophy winners who don't win could simply be a product of mental letdowns.

Think about it:
The number one rated team, unless they have been in a dogfight to keep their position all year long, has likely had minimal resistance throughout the 82 game schedule, and as human nature would have it, some complacency can set in, and many of those wins gained against non contenders, via shoot outs, or against teams resting players due to grinding 3 games in 4 nights parts of their schedules, all of a sudden, in the playoffs, don't come as easily because now they are dealing with teams focused ENTIRELY on them and with match ups being drawn up and gone over ad nausem.

Obviously, the President's Cup winning team is very good, but again, if they aren't consistently tested, they may fall into that mental trap come playoff time, and by then, it may be too late to simply 'turn it on' against a very hungry team whose sole purpose is to defeat the number one team at any cost.

 

[Leafs87]

Maybe burnt out from season? I really don’t know but always wondered the same thing