Prospect Info: Who is the Blues #6 Prospect - 2023

[Brian39]

Voting Neighbours again, but we're in an area where I'd buy arguments for several guys. I still see a lot of guys who can become actual NHL contributors.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And as a Blues fan that tries not to be a homer, I'm really excited that we have at least 8 guys that I feel comfortable with saying they have top 9 or top 4 upside, and a couple top-line guys. And then a handful of others that I think will at least make some sort of impact in the league.

If we can get a top pair defenseman, I think we'll have a young core that can at least get us to the Backes caliber days, and then it's up to Army to make the moves at the pro level to fill the gaps.

 

[Reality Czech]

Dean got injured in Game 1 of the Quebec series. Was basically playing with 1 arm the rest of the way. So yeah, his effectiveness went way down in that series.

His equipment then didn’t arrive until the last day of Prospect Camp so of course he didn’t shine that week.

So while you’re correct in that he didn’t shine in those 2 scenarios, there’s 2 pretty darn good reasons why that you’re leaving out.

I’ve got no problem with people preferring others over Dean as there’s valid reasons to do so. But there’s also valid reasons for preferring Dean.

If we're factoring in "what ifs" into our judgments, I'd include the fact that Neighbours never really got going last year due to injuries. If he'd been healthy all year, I bet he would have impressed more than he did and wouldn't even be considered a prospect anymore due to NHL games played. He still became a regular roster member at age 20, something that Dean and Bolduc probably won't accomplish unless they really impress at camp this year. But I digress.

 

[stl76]

I disagree. I think whatever negatives that has caused is more than offset by the people saying he is NHL ready because he has already played in the NHL. He's been gifted opportunities he doesn't deserve every step of his Blues career, and people think that means he deserves them.




Dean's D+2 regular season was barely behind Neighbours. It gets ugly when you add the playoffs. Dean crushed Neighbours in scoring regular season + playoffs in their own D+2 seasons. 96 in 63 for 1.524 vs 62 in 49 for 1.265,

Here are their totals for their entire junior careers:

Neighbours
Regular season - 176 points in 171 games, for 1.029 ppg
Playoffs - 29 points in 39 games for .829 ppg

Dean
Regular Season - 188 points in 177 games for 1.062 ppg
Playoffs - 35 points in 24 games for 1.458 ppg

While close, Dean has better regular season point production than Neighbours overall, and and better total ppg with playoffs in every season but one. Neighbours did have a better D+1 season, but he only played 19 games so small sample size.

Dean's playoff production kills Neighbours. It is absolutely a good thing for a prospect to have a track record of raising his game when it matters most.

So I find it hard to find any genuine argument that Neighbours per game scoring in junior was better than Dean's. Then add the Center+defensive game argument, and its not even close.

Look at their stats year by year at the same age. Other than a single FANTASTIC recent playoff run, Neighbours has had the more impressive junior career IMO. I think folks are overweighting Dean’s recent playoff numbers.

And just looking at counting stats doesn’t capture my concerns about Dean or the intangibles that Neighbours brings. Looking at the broader scope of their work, I prefer Neighbours by a small but decisive margin.

 

[stl76]

I just don't like when people knock down others for weird reasons to prop others up. Implying that Neighbours didn't earn his spot is something I don't agree with. He earned a spot in camp, compare that to someone like Bolduc. He then earned a call up after really good production in the minors and his play was noticably better when he came back up.

Not saying, you can't critique them when deciding between 2 either. Perfectly fine with saying his upside is lower than others and that's why you prefer someone else, just how someone would prefer him over someone else because of NHL readiness.

He also made the WHL in his 15-16 year old season (turned 16 in March of that year). Kid’s got a great habit of being ready for bigger stages before most of his same age group…and I feel like this should be a positive but is somehow being held against his a bit in these rankings.

 

[STL fan in MN]

All this talk about who had the better Jr career or who made or will make the NHL sooner…to me, it comes down to this: When it’s all said and done, who do I think will have the better career? Who will be more valuable throughout their career? Between Dean and Neighbours, I’d go with Dean. We can debate the minimal differences in their Jr stats but in terms of actual skills in watching them both play, I see more NHL translatable skills from Dean. He also plays the more important position and I find him to be more reliable defensively.

It’s close but I prefer Dean. But like I said in previous polls, I value the guys I have from 3-8 very very similarly, but someone has to be 7th and 8th. Neighbours is more physically developed so I’m not surprised he mostly made the Blues at age 20 and wouldn’t be surprised if Dean doesn’t get as many games with the Blues at the same age this season. But I still think Dean will have the better career in the long run, so I value him more. Doesn’t mean I don’t value Neighbours though as I see him as a longtime valuable 3LW that’ll bring valuable intangibles for a long time.

Remember back in the day when guys like Marty Reasoner or Maxim Bets was our best prospect? This is so so much better.

 

[Majorityof1]

What were Dean’s points per game against Quebec? Watching some of that series and then prospect camp I didn’t walk away seeing any potential in being a top six. He’s a good player, but I’m not so sure it will translate at a higher speed. I’m really curious what he does this year at the AHL level. It is kind of like Lindstein. My big concern with him is his I have a live grenade approach with the puck when he gets overpressured. It’s not natural for him and his reactions need to improve as a defense first guy, which I would like to see. I think he will be a very good player and I am a huge fan; but I want to see how he does this year and how he progresses before I move him up on my list anyway. Both are very good players, but so our neighbors and Buchinger.

@STL fan in IA answered you perfectly. Dean was injured in that series. And I wouldn't take prospect camp too seriously when looking at guys who will get their shot in training camp coming off of a long juniors playoff run. Add the lack of skates, and just don't read a ton into it.

We may all not have much information on Dean. But we have a ton on Neighbours. I have seen him play 50+ games. I've seen him in the NHL, AHL, and CHL. I've seen him injured and healthy. I've only seen one impressive thing about his game, his strength and playmaking on the boards. And that is very impressive. But that is it.

I just don't like when people knock down others for weird reasons to prop others up. Implying that Neighbours didn't earn his spot is something I don't agree with. He earned a spot in camp, compare that to someone like Bolduc. He then earned a call up after really good production in the minors and his play was noticably better when he came back up.

Not saying, you can't critique them when deciding between 2 either. Perfectly fine with saying his upside is lower than others and that's why you prefer someone else, just how someone would prefer him over someone else because of NHL readiness.

I'm not sure who you are referring to. But I am not knocking him down to prop others up. I've made these arguments any time we discuss Neighbours whether in a poll or just a thread about Neighbours alone. Neighbours got called up too early. Even his supporters admit it. @Blueston posted about how being called up before he is ready is hurting him in these polls.

Then they put him with top 6 players when he was dragging them down (look at the WoWy stats). Other than aciari who was playing 3rd line by that time, Neighburs played with all top 6 guys. he had barely any time with guys like Toropchenko. He played with Schenn and Kyrou a significant amount. His play did not earn that deployment. They were trying to shelter him cause he was not ready. And that's fine, but when people say "Oh he played like a 3rd liner last year"....no he didn't. He got drug to 4th line stats by playing with top line players.

Look at their stats year by year at the same age. Other than a single FANTASTIC recent playoff run, Neighbours has had the more impressive junior career IMO. I think folks are overweighting Dean’s recent playoff numbers.

And just looking at counting stats doesn’t capture my concerns about Dean or the intangibles that Neighbours brings. Looking at the broader scope of their work, I prefer Neighbours by a small but decisive margin.

	Jake RS	Zach RS	Jake PO	Zach PO	Jake Total	Zach Total
D-3	0.364​	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.364​	n/a
D-2	0.511​	0.807​	0.750​	n/a	0.571​	0.807​
D-1	1.094​	0.870​	N/A	0.500​	1.094​	0.815​
D+1	1.737​	1.106​	N/A	1.000​	1.737​	1.093​
D+2	1.500​	1.400​	0.895​	2.000​	1.265​	1.524​
Total	1.029​	1.056​	0.829​	1.458​	1.031​	1.109​

Jake had the better D-1, D+1 and D+2 regular seasons. But his D+1 was a very small sample size. Zack had the better D+2 and D-2 when you incorporate the playoffs and regular season. Dean had better overall numbers in all categories.

What are your concerns about Dean that aren't captured by counting numbers? Especially when you are the one who brought up counting numbers (iirc).

 

[STL fan in MN]

As an aside, I’d like to plug Theo Lindstein for future polls. He absolutely has top-4 potential and as others have pointed out, a #4 d-man is generally worth more than 3rd liners. But with so much runway ahead of him, it’s understandable he’d be behind Dean, Neighbours and others for now.

He’s not ever going to be flashy but he’s very smart and a safe bet to make it as he’s very advanced defensively.

And actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if his offense pops a little. He’s been playing such high level hockey above his peers, that he’s undoubtedly been focusing on the defensive game and not making mistakes as opposed to generating offense.

He played 12 games in the SHL as a 16 year old. He then played 32 this past season at age 17. Going back several years, the only d-man I could find playing that many games at those ages is Rasmus Dahlin. Obviously Lindstein doesn’t bring the full package like Dahlin but it should be noted how much he was trusted at such young ages.

He’ll actually go down a level this next season as his SHL team got demoted to the Allsvenskan. I go back and forth on if that’ll be a positive or negative for him, or maybe just neutral, but he should get a ton of quality minutes and the Allsvenskan is still a good league. It’s much closer to the level of play of the SHL than the AHL is to the NHL. I expect him to make Sweden’s WJC team.

Buchinger would be right behind him IMO. Sort of a similar ceiling but way different strengths and weaknesses. He brings the offensive but will need to shore up a lot of things to be NHL level defensively. He’s a lot like Dunn IMO. I think he also has a shot of making the WJC for Canada.

 

[STL fan in MN]

He also made the WHL in his 15-16 year old season (turned 16 in March of that year). Kid’s got a great habit of being ready for bigger stages before most of his same age group…and I feel like this should be a positive but is somehow being held against his a bit in these rankings.

While I’d agree Neighbours has consistently been more physically developed in his young career, I don’t think we can read anything into him playing 11 games in the WHL at age 15-16 while Dean didn’t do the same in the Q. Why? Because Dean quite literally couldn’t. The WHL does a Bantam draft. They draft 1 year sooner than the OHL or QMJHL. Neighbours was the 4th overall pick of the 2017 WHL draft and Dean was the 4th overall pick of the 2019 QMJHL draft, yet they’re only 1 birth year apart. Dean couldn’t have played in the Q at 15-16 as he hadn’t been drafted by a Q team yet.

 

[Blueston]

@STL fan in IA answered you perfectly. Dean was injured in that series. And I wouldn't take prospect camp too seriously when looking at guys who will get their shot in training camp coming off of a long juniors playoff run. Add the lack of skates, and just don't read a ton into it.

We may all not have much information on Dean. But we have a ton on Neighbours. I have seen him play 50+ games. I've seen him in the NHL, AHL, and CHL. I've seen him injured and healthy. I've only seen one impressive thing about his game, his strength and playmaking on the boards. And that is very impressive. But that is it.



I'm not sure who you are referring to. But I am not knocking him down to prop others up. I've made these arguments any time we discuss Neighbours whether in a poll or just a thread about Neighbours alone. Neighbours got called up too early. Even his supporters admit it. @Blueston posted about how being called up before he is ready is hurting him in these polls.

Then they put him with top 6 players when he was dragging them down (look at the WoWy stats). Other than aciari who was playing 3rd line by that time, Neighburs played with all top 6 guys. he had barely any time with guys like Toropchenko. He played with Schenn and Kyrou a significant amount. His play did not earn that deployment. They were trying to shelter him cause he was not ready. And that's fine, but when people say "Oh he played like a 3rd liner last year"....no he didn't. He got drug to 4th line stats by playing with top line players.

	Jake RS	Zach RS	Jake PO	Zach PO	Jake Total	Zach Total
D-3	0.364​	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.364​	n/a
D-2	0.511​	0.807​	0.750​	n/a	0.571​	0.807​
D-1	1.094​	0.870​	N/A	0.500​	1.094​	0.815​
D+1	1.737​	1.106​	N/A	1.000​	1.737​	1.093​
D+2	1.500​	1.400​	0.895​	2.000​	1.265​	1.524​
Total	1.029​	1.056​	0.829​	1.458​	1.031​	1.109​

Jake had the better D-1, D+1 and D+2 regular seasons. But his D+1 was a very small sample size. Zack had the better D+2 and D-2 when you incorporate the playoffs and regular season. Dean had better overall numbers in all categories.

What are your concerns about Dean that aren't captured by counting numbers? Especially when you are the one who brought up counting numbers (iirc).

To be clear, I don’t think I am any lower on Dean (or stenberg) than you and many others on here. I am just higher on neighbours. And while his numbers last year weren’t good, he was fairly awful in beginning of season and much better when he got recalled later on.

 

[Frenzy31]

I went with Neighbors over Dean. To me neither is a play driver. Both project to be middle six players. I think that both have offense that is going to be grind type goals and don't have massive offensive upside, unlike the players ahead of them.

Neighbors is 1 year ahead in his development and played reasonable well 16 points in 23 game. Dean plays center so that is in his favor, but Neighbors is further in his development. I doubt Dean sees the ice this season, unless we do a trade deadline sale.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

As an aside, I’d like to plug Theo Lindstein for future polls. He absolutely has top-4 potential and as others have pointed out, a #4 d-man is generally worth more than 3rd liners. But with so much runway ahead of him, it’s understandable he’d be behind Dean, Neighbours and others for now.

He’s not ever going to be flashy but he’s very smart and a safe bet to make it as he’s very advanced defensively.

And actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if his offense pops a little. He’s been playing such high level hockey above his peers, that he’s undoubtedly been focusing on the defensive game and not making mistakes as opposed to generating offense.

He played 12 games in the SHL as a 16 year old. He then played 32 this past season at age 17. Going back several years, the only d-man I could find playing that many games at those ages is Rasmus Dahlin. Obviously Lindstein doesn’t bring the full package like Dahlin but it should be noted how much he was trusted at such young ages.

He’ll actually go down a level this next season as his SHL team got demoted to the Allsvenskan. I go back and forth on if that’ll be a positive or negative for him, or maybe just neutral, but he should get a ton of quality minutes and the Allsvenskan is still a good league. It’s much closer to the level of play of the SHL than the AHL is to the NHL. I expect him to make Sweden’s WJC team.

Buchinger would be right behind him IMO. Sort of a similar ceiling but way different strengths and weaknesses. He brings the offensive but will need to shore up a lot of things to be NHL level defensively. He’s a lot like Dunn IMO. I think he also has a shot of making the WJC for Canada.

I agree. I have him next after Dean, but a couple players got picked before them I would have put after.

I think it’s obvious who the next 3 will be (but not the order), then it opens wide again.

 

[stl76]

What are your concerns about Dean that aren't captured by counting numbers? Especially when you are the one who brought up counting numbers (iirc).

If you go back to my original post, it was really about ceiling and floor. I only brought up scoring/counting numbers to point out that I think Dean's ceiling is being overrated in comparison to Neighbours. I think both have similar ceilings, yet it seems like a lot of people are rating Dean as having a higher ceiling while Neighbours has a lower ceiling and higher floor. I think Neighbours does have a higher floor given he's more developed and has more than proven his ability to handle the physicality of the NHL. But I'm not sold that Dean has a significantly higher ceiling, not enough to make up for Neighbour's having a higher floor anyway.

My "concern" with Dean really comes down to his physicality and playstyle holding up in the NHL. Dean isn't small, but at 6'0 190 lbs, he's not exactly a big guy. In my viewings, he plays a physical game with a high motor and loves to stick handle, particularly in the corners and down low. I'm curious to see how he adapts to a league where he is smaller than a lot of guys he'll be lining up against. His skating and compete level will translate, no question. Will his physical play and stick handling along the boards/low in the zone? He won 50.9% of his draws last year - what happens when the average C he lines up against is several inches taller and a lot heavier?

I want to say, there is a LOT to like about Dean as a prospect, but I think there is some recency bias happening in relation to his Q playoffs as well as some "shiny new toy" syndrome.

While I’d agree Neighbours has consistently been more physically developed in his young career, I don’t think we can read anything into him playing 11 games in the WHL at age 15-16 while Dean didn’t do the same in the Q. Why? Because Dean quite literally couldn’t. The WHL does a Bantam draft. They draft 1 year sooner than the OHL or QMJHL. Neighbours was the 4th overall pick of the 2017 WHL draft and Dean was the 4th overall pick of the 2019 QMJHL draft, yet they’re only 1 birth year apart. Dean couldn’t have played in the Q at 15-16 as he hadn’t been drafted by a Q team yet.

Interesting point - I didn't mean to bring up Neighbours making the WHL at 15 as a slight to Dean but rather as a feather in Neighbours' cap. There are not a lot of 15 year olds who play in the WHL. And since Mo1 was comparing their scoring numbers including that 15 year old season (11gp 0g 4a) in an overall pts/game calculation, it seemed like that was being counted against Neighbours, rather than as a positive.

I agree. I have him next after Dean, but a couple players got picked before them I would have put after.

I think it’s obvious who the next 3 will be (but not the order), then it opens wide again.

You made an interesting point in the last poll about the impact of drafting vs trading for a player on the poll results.

If Dean had played for a worse team and missed the Q playoffs last season, I don't think nearly as many would be ranking him above Neighbours.

 

[LGB]

If you go back to my original post, it was really about ceiling and floor. I only brought up scoring/counting numbers to point out that I think Dean's ceiling is being overrated in comparison to Neighbours. I think both have similar ceilings, yet it seems like a lot of people are rating Dean as having a higher ceiling while Neighbours has a lower ceiling and higher floor. I think Neighbours does have a higher floor given he's more developed and has more than proven his ability to handle the physicality of the NHL. But I'm not sold that Dean has a significantly higher ceiling, not enough to make up for Neighbour's having a higher floor anyway.

I think Dean's tools are just superior to Neighbours. Most notably skating, but I also think he is a better puck handler, and the comination of these two things make him significantly more dynamic with the puck on his stick. I'm excited to see what Dean can do with some higher end talent on his line.

 

[Reality Czech]

If you go back to my original post, it was really about ceiling and floor. I only brought up scoring/counting numbers to point out that I think Dean's ceiling is being overrated in comparison to Neighbours. I think both have similar ceilings, yet it seems like a lot of people are rating Dean as having a higher ceiling while Neighbours has a lower ceiling and higher floor. I think Neighbours does have a higher floor given he's more developed and has more than proven his ability to handle the physicality of the NHL. But I'm not sold that Dean has a significantly higher ceiling, not enough to make up for Neighbour's having a higher floor anyway.

My "concern" with Dean really comes down to his physicality and playstyle holding up in the NHL. Dean isn't small, but at 6'0 190 lbs, he's not exactly a big guy. In my viewings, he plays a physical game with a high motor and loves to stick handle, particularly in the corners and down low. I'm curious to see how he adapts to a league where he is smaller than a lot of guys he'll be lining up against. His skating and compete level will translate, no question. Will his physical play and stick handling along the boards/low in the zone? He won 50.9% of his draws last year - what happens when the average C he lines up against is several inches taller and a lot heavier?

I want to say, there is a LOT to like about Dean as a prospect, but I think there is some recency bias happening in relation to his Q playoffs as well as some "shiny new toy" syndrome.



Interesting point - I didn't mean to bring up Neighbours making the WHL at 15 as a slight to Dean but rather as a feather in Neighbours' cap. There are not a lot of 15 year olds who play in the WHL. And since Mo1 was comparing their scoring numbers including that 15 year old season (11gp 0g 4a) in an overall pts/game calculation, it seemed like that was being counted against Neighbours, rather than as a positive.


You made an interesting point in the last poll about the impact of drafting vs trading for a player on the poll results.

If Dean had played for a worse team and missed the Q playoffs last season, I don't think nearly as many would be ranking him above Neighbours.

I rest my case your honor. Great analysis!

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Really it is just a matter of preference. It looks like however the chips fall you have both your #6 and #7 prospect and move on to #8

 

[Blueston]

Really it is just a matter of preference. It looks like however the chips fall you have both your #6 and #7 prospect and move on to #8

isnt the point if these polls to have the polls? We knew snuggy would be 2 but voted anyway.

 

[stl76]

I think Dean's tools are just superior to Neighbours. Most notably skating, but I also think he is a better puck handler, and the comination of these two things make him significantly more dynamic with the puck on his stick. I'm excited to see what Dean can do with some higher end talent on his line.

That’s a totally valid take. Agreed that Dean's puck handling and in particular his skating are better than Neighbours'. He does also play a more premium position and is a tenacious player in a lot of ways - there are plenty of good reasons to pick Dean over Neighbours here.

I just also really like Neighbours' ceiling and think he has a very high floor. I Like Neighbours' hockey IQ and passing skills a bit more than Dean and I'm hopeful those two skills in particular will allow him to be excel as a complementary player on a 2nd or maybe even 1st line depending on roster construction. Neighbours' physicality is a big plus for me as well and I think could also lead to him meshing well on a line with more skilled players (creating space for them with his hitting and dropping the gloves if other teams are taking liberties with our more skilled guys).

I can really see a clear path for Jake to make an impact in the top 6, moreso than Dean right now. I could very well be wrong but I see a more clear path to Dean on the 3rd line...maybe that's just due to my relative lack of familiarity with Dean tho. Regardless, really excited to see how Dean handles the transition to pro hockey and if Neighbours can take the next step in his development this year.

 

[Robb_K]

I can really see a clear path for Jake to make an impact in the top 6, moreso than Dean right now. I could very well be wrong but I see a more clear path to Dean on the 3rd line...maybe that's just due to my relative lack of familiarity with Dean tho. Regardless, really excited to see how Dean handles the transition to pro hockey and if Neighbours can take the next step in his development this year.

Clearly, BOTH Neighbours and Dean have a clearer path to become middle 6 forwards in The NHL, than they do to be more likely to spend the bulk of their careers as Top 6ers, due to the difficulty of being a solid Top 6er in tha World's top league. Given that their chances seem fairly similar, I pick Dean ever-so-slightly over Neighbours because of his skating, stickhandling, and mostly because the centre position is more valuable to an NHL team than is a winger. Having a solid 2-way #3 or #2 centre is certainly worth more to a team (especially in the long run), than having a power-game based Line 2 or Line 3 winger, whose career prime, playing at a high level, is likely to be signifcantly shorter. We saw that with David Backes, taking longer to reach his high-level peak than the highly-skilled wingers, and having an abrupt, EARLY fall-off downslide to his career, based on his body having taken such a beating over the years from his crashing-style game.

Although they have different higher and lower-level skills and attributes, they are pretty close in overall expected value, and making this is a difficult choice. Some choices in polls like this are basically pick-em toss-ups, while others are very clear. That's the nature of random chance. But if we're going to rank them all through to the last prospect with the chance of becoming an NHL regular for at least a handful of seasons, then we have to live with this situation.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I'll be late with the next poll. Worst case scenario I'll start it a day late.

Well, WORST case scenario I'll get hit by a bus today and then someone else can start it.

 

[stl76]

I'll be late with the next poll. Worst case scenario I'll start it a day late.

Well, WORST case scenario I'll get hit by a bus today and then someone else can start it.

Please look both ways.

 

[LogosBlue]

I personally don't still consider Neighbors a prospect

 

[Mike Liut]

Neighbors is a Backes clone. He’s going to get better and better. Unfortunately, Backes was a 2C thrown into a 1C role. Thankfully Neighbors won’t be forced into that role.

 

[BlueBleeder]

Gotta go with Lindstein. I think there might be more offense to his game. Been my pick for a few rounds now.

 

[joe galiba]

I'll be late with the next poll. Worst case scenario I'll start it a day late.

Well, WORST case scenario I'll get hit by a bus today and then someone else can start it.

look both ways