Which two draft slots would you prefer?

[Stand Witness]

Would you rather have pick 15-30 (2015) and give up pick 45-60 (2015) with it OR get pick 30-45 (2015) and pick 30-45 (2016)?

If I am not mistaken this would be the outcome if Pittsburgh misses the playoffs this year and next year vs them making the playoffs this year.

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[Menzinger]

2nds gives a team a higher chance at getting an impact NHLer than a mid to late 1st.

The team would be better off with multiple assts.

 

[Stand Witness]

2nds gives a team a higher chance at getting an impact NHLer than a mid to late 1st.

The team would be better off with multiple assts.

My thoughts as well which is why after looking over the conditions on the Kessel trade again I think it might be better if the Pens do miss the playoffs instead of making it.

 

[rdogg]

Wait if PIT misses the playoffs this year we get their 2nd?

 

[Ovate]

Would you rather have pick 15-30 (2015) and give up pick 45-60 (2015) with it OR get pick 30-45 (2015) and pick 30-45 (2016)?

If I am not mistaken this would be the outcome if Pittsburgh misses the playoffs this year and next year vs them making the playoffs this year.

You're double counting the 2nd for this year. Choosing the second option gets us another 2nd pick next year, it doesn't also prevent us from losing a 2nd pick this year.

It's "Would you rather have a pick 15-30 this year OR pick 30-45 this year and next year?"

 

[Kelly]

Wait if PIT misses the playoffs this year we get their 2nd?

If Pittsburgh makes the playoffs this year - Leafs get Pittsburgh's 1st, Pittsburgh gets their 2nd back which was originally traded for Winnik.

If Pittsburgh misses this year, but makes it in 2017 - Leafs retain the 2nd from the Winnik trade but give up their 2nd in 2017 while getting Pittsburgh's 1st in 2017.

If Pittsburgh misses both years leafs get Pittsburgh's 2017 2nd round pick.

 

[MJ65]

I believe a lot of these decisions are made on the floor, so it's not up to decide what we we do with ifs and but scenarios, I will leave that on Hunter to decide

 

[cupcrazyman]

Keep any 1st Round Picks.

 

[Leaf19]

Personally, I rank the three scenarios as: Pittsburgh makes playoffs this year >> Pittsburgh misses playoffs 2 years in a row > Pittsburgh misses this year and makes it next year

If Pittsburgh makes it this year they are most likely going to be eliminated early so I'd assume the pick is around 15-20. Wherever that pick is, the pick we are sending to them (their own 2nd) is going to be exactly 30 spots higher than that pick.

If they miss this year but make it next year, we get their pick (15-30) but have to give our own 2nd to them, which if we tank again next year could be between 30-45. The worst case scenario here would be Pittsburgh winning the cup (30th pick) and us coming dead last (31st pick) which would give us a 1 spot upgrade. Of course this is unlikely to happen but it would be the worst case.

The last scenario is if Pittsburgh misses the playoffs 2 years in a row. Then we get their 2017 2nd round pick and get to keep their 2016 2nd round pick. That would net us 2017 (30-60) and 2016 (30-45) which IMO is better than the 2nd scenario but worse than picking 15-20th.

 

[Sonny21]

Personally, I rank the three scenarios as: Pittsburgh makes playoffs this year >> Pittsburgh misses playoffs 2 years in a row > Pittsburgh misses this year and makes it next year

If Pittsburgh makes it this year they are most likely going to be eliminated early so I'd assume the pick is around 15-20. Wherever that pick is, the pick we are sending to them (their own 2nd) is going to be exactly 30 spots higher than that pick.

If they miss this year but make it next year, we get their pick (15-30) but have to give our own 2nd to them, which if we tank again next year could be between 30-45. The worst case scenario here would be Pittsburgh winning the cup (30th pick) and us coming dead last (31st pick) which would give us a 1 spot upgrade. Of course this is unlikely to happen but it would be the worst case.

The last scenario is if Pittsburgh misses the playoffs 2 years in a row. Then we get their 2017 2nd round pick and get to keep their 2016 2nd round pick. That would net us 2017 (30-60) and 2016 (30-45) which IMO is better than the 2nd scenario but worse than picking 15-20th.

Agree with this.

 

[jjjshab]

the years in your OP should be 2016 and 2017

i think everyone is hoping that pitt makes it in this year and gets swept as Leaf19 explains, though i don't necessarily agree with never getting a first as the 2nd best outcome.

 

[champs*]

i get the feeling kessel will have the last ****you toronto, no 1st rounder

 

[4thline]

Imo as a general rule 2x31-44 > 1x20-30, but would prefer a 15-19.

But that's just general, all depends on the players on the board. Last year you could argue that 17 was the cut off. This year?

 

[Grandrift145]

I think the worst scenario is when the Pens miss the playoffs this year and have a deep playoff run next year.

We are either trading a 2nd for a 1st or receiving a 2nd

Penguins missing the playoffs both seasons is my absolute favorite scenario

 

[Canada4Gold]

we're giving up our 2017 2nd in the 2nd scenario which is likely better than Pit's 2016 2nd we'd be keeping in this one

all the picks involved are 2016 PIT 1st(15-30), 2016 PIT 2nd(31-44), 2017 PIT 1st(15-30), 2017 TOR 2nd(31-60), 2017 PIT 2nd(31-44)

and the options are

2016 PIT 1st(15-30) and 2017 TOR 2nd(31-60) - If Pit makes the playoffs this year we have these 2 picks

2017 PIT 1st(15-30) and 2016 PIT 2nd(31-44) - If Pit misses this year and makes next year we have these 2 picks

2016 PIT 2nd(31-44), 2017 TOR 2nd(31-60), and 2017 PIT 2nd(31-44) - If Pit misses 2 years in a row we have these 3 picks

The 2nd looks better because the 2nd doesn't include the range 45-60 in the Pit 2nd, but there's a very good chance our 2nd in 2017 is better than Pit's 2nd this year in the 31-44 range if they miss.

So I'd take door 1. I want Pittsburgh to play the playoffs

also if you include a time value of money thing, there's no interest on picks obviously, but the sooner you get them the sooner they're ready.

 

[keon]

Personally, I rank the three scenarios as: Pittsburgh makes playoffs this year >> Pittsburgh misses playoffs 2 years in a row > Pittsburgh misses this year and makes it next year

If Pittsburgh makes it this year they are most likely going to be eliminated early so I'd assume the pick is around 15-20. Wherever that pick is, the pick we are sending to them (their own 2nd) is going to be exactly 30 spots higher than that pick.

If they miss this year but make it next year, we get their pick (15-30) but have to give our own 2nd to them, which if we tank again next year could be between 30-45. The worst case scenario here would be Pittsburgh winning the cup (30th pick) and us coming dead last (31st pick) which would give us a 1 spot upgrade. Of course this is unlikely to happen but it would be the worst case.

The last scenario is if Pittsburgh misses the playoffs 2 years in a row. Then we get their 2017 2nd round pick and get to keep their 2016 2nd round pick. That would net us 2017 (30-60) and 2016 (31-44) which IMO is better than the 2nd scenario but worse than picking 15-20th.

You are one of the few people that has a very good understanding of the trade options. One small mistake. In "The last scenario..." the Pittsburg 2017 2nd round pick would be 31 - 44 by virtue of them missing the playoffs. (Discounting picks for unsigned previous 1st rounders).

Personally I like the first scenario where Pittsburg makes the playoffs this year (looking like a long-shot).

A great post nonetheless.

 

[TheKingSlayer]

Obviously the scenario where we get a 1st round pick is the best one here. Don't forget what the Leafs like to do on draft day - trade down and acquire more picks. If we start out with the 1st rounder, we can easily recoup that 2nd we traded and then some more, whereas if we only get the 2nd rounders, then we lose leverage in trade talks, and at best we get a few more 3-5 rounds instead of 1sts/2nds.

Let Hunter and Dubas do their thing at the draft by giving them the best trade bait possible, i.e. the first round picks.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

If Pittsburgh makes the playoffs this year - Leafs get Pittsburgh's 1st, Pittsburgh gets their 2nd back which was originally traded for Winnik.

If Pittsburgh misses this year, but makes it in 2017 - Leafs retain the 2nd from the Winnik trade but give up their 2nd in 2017 while getting Pittsburgh's 1st in 2017.

If Pittsburgh misses both years leafs get Pittsburgh's 2017 2nd round pick.

Ya, if Pittsburgh does NOT make the playoffs this year and next, the return is significantly diminished. They haven't exactly been on fire this years so far .....

 

[A1LeafNation]

Pens make it this year:

We have:
1st 2016 (TOR)
1st 2017 (TOR)
1st 2016 (PIT)
2nd 2016 (TOR)
2nd 2017 (TOR)

Pens miss this year make it next:

We have:
1st 2016 (TOR)
1st 2017 (TOR)
1st 2017(PIT)
2nd 2016 (TOR)
2nd 2016 (PIT)


Pens miss both years:

1st 2016 (TOR)
1st 2017 (TOR)
2nd 2016 (TOR)
2nd 2017 (TOR)
2nd 2016 (PIT)
2nd 2017 (PIT)


Scenario 1:
3 firsts, 2 seconds


Scenario 2:
3 firsts, 2 seconds


Scenario 3:
2 firsts, 4 seconds

 

[A1LeafNation]

2 early 2nds better than late 1st?

 

[taurine330]

2 early 2nds better than late 1st?

That has been the consensus.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Ya, if Pittsburgh does NOT make the playoffs this year and next, the return is significantly diminished. They haven't exactly been on fire this years so far .....

wrong. dubas actually made a smart clause so we retain their 2nds

 

[Drew75]

Personally, I rank the three scenarios as: Pittsburgh makes playoffs this year >> Pittsburgh misses playoffs 2 years in a row > Pittsburgh misses this year and makes it next year

If Pittsburgh makes it this year they are most likely going to be eliminated early so I'd assume the pick is around 15-20. Wherever that pick is, the pick we are sending to them (their own 2nd) is going to be exactly 30 spots higher than that pick.

If they miss this year but make it next year, we get their pick (15-30) but have to give our own 2nd to them, which if we tank again next year could be between 30-45. The worst case scenario here would be Pittsburgh winning the cup (30th pick) and us coming dead last (31st pick) which would give us a 1 spot upgrade. Of course this is unlikely to happen but it would be the worst case.

The last scenario is if Pittsburgh misses the playoffs 2 years in a row. Then we get their 2017 2nd round pick and get to keep their 2016 2nd round pick. That would net us 2017 (30-60) and 2016 (30-45) which IMO is better than the 2nd scenario but worse than picking 15-20th.

There is also another complication for your second scenario - apparently if they miss this year, we get NJ's 3rd round pick as well - but not sure which year (acquired by Pitts as compensation).

Edit: Not sure if it's only if they miss both years we get it, or if it's just this year. I'm having trouble finding a consistent listing of the conditions.

 

[A1LeafNation]

3rd is ours with no stipulations

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Pens make it this year:

We have:
1st 2016 (TOR)
1st 2017 (TOR)
1st 2016 (PIT)
2nd 2016 (TOR)
2nd 2017 (TOR)

Pens miss this year make it next:

We have:
1st 2016 (TOR)
1st 2017 (TOR)
1st 2017(PIT)
2nd 2016 (TOR)
2nd 2016 (PIT)


Pens miss both years:

1st 2016 (TOR)
1st 2017 (TOR)
2nd 2016 (TOR)
2nd 2017 (TOR)
2nd 2016 (PIT)
2nd 2017 (PIT)


Scenario 1:
3 firsts, 2 seconds


Scenario 2:
3 firsts, 2 seconds


Scenario 3:
2 firsts, 4 seconds

In scenario 3, the leafs also get Pittsburgh's 2nd in 2018.