The more I think about it, the more I think it will be the Leafs:
1. Boston are pretty hot lately, smashing Tampa Bay with ruthless efficiency on Tuesday. They should dispatch Ottawa, and then probably beat us as we will be looking to rest/protect our players. So they end up with 98 points.
2. Can't see Ottawa beating Boston on the road tonight, but then they get a Rangers team with nothing to play for at home, and an anemic Islanders team for their final game. They win their last two, so they also finish with 98 points.
3. Tonights game is probably Toronto's biggest of the season. Tampa still has an outside chance, so Toronto needs to smash them, and they will. But next they get Pittsburgh and Columbus. Pittsburgh will still be fighting for seeding, so Toronto loses that game. Columbus will probably have nothing to play for, as they will be locked into the #3 seed. That game could go both ways, but lets take worse case scenario and Toronto wins it. They then finish with 97 points, behind both Ottawa and Boston.
Pretty much the way I see it. All 3 of those teams win two of their remaining final games, leaving Toronto in the WC2.