Which is most important for the Canes, chasing a Cup short term or long term success?

[sheriff bart]

This is an issue that has intrigued me for a while and has been tiptoed around in the Hamiltion thread quite a bit. Some seem to think that the team has a real Cup window for a few years and the team needs to strike now and worry about later when later gets here. Only one team in 32 gets to raise the Cup, so it's a real crap shoot to put all those eggs in that basket.

I get that the ultimate goal is to win the championship, but is that the only metric to gauge success? Teams like Toronto have made moves with no long term vision, and have gone nowhere. Teams like Tampa (in my opinion) have built by sticking with a process. Colorado has done the same, but has not had the level of success that Tampa has. There is no guarantee either way.

I think Canes need a period of being a consistent playoff team with the long term being more important than putting all the eggs in the Cup basket. Build the team with depth and be able to make trade deadline moves when it seems like there is an opportunity.

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[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'm in the long-term window. This likely explains why I'm still open to cap dumps for picks even with our current success. I see at least a ten-year period where continually good drafting and development will keep the club a powerhouse long-term.

 

[Svechhammer]

Slow build to a cup that legitimately keeps momentum within the growing fan base.

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

After a decade of suck I'm in for the longterm. Playoffs every year means more enjoyable regular seasons, more steady revenue and hopefully a more stable org (or BORG if you wish).

 

[SoupNazi]

Long-term success. It isn't fun to win one year and then suck immediately afterward.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

It's a false choice.

The way to position yourself for a shot at the cup is to get into the playoffs. Once you're there, literally anyone can win.

Therefore, I want the chance every single year.

The math of "building to win a cup this year" is almost always bad math, based on misjudgment of assets and a misunderstanding of statistics.

 

[sheriff bart]

The responses so far make me wonder about all the doom and gloom in the Hamilton thread

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Post-lockout regular season finishes by Stanley Cup Winners: 4, 4, 1, 8, 3, 7, 13, 1, 10, 7, 4, 2, 6, 12, 4, 8

 

[MinJaBen]

It's a false choice.

The way to position yourself for a shot at the cup is to get into the playoffs. Once you're there, literally anyone can win.

Therefore, I want the chance every single year.

The math of "building to win a cup this year" is almost always bad math, based on misjudgment of assets and a misunderstanding of statistics.

I agree with the false choice. You have to be ready to do either. There are periods of the franchise's existence where long term building is the only choice, for example, where Detroit and Ottawa are now. But then there are times where you have built well enough and you get lucky on a couple of guys out performing what you think they were capable of that pushes you into a window of opportunity. At those times, you have to spend some of the future to maximize your chances. I think we are in one of those times.

 

[ndp]

Hard for me to vote one or the other. I think some of the most recent successful teams live somewhere between the two choices. It's a constant up and down cycle. You pay the price for a few seasons of going all in and hopefully it pays off. If not you've got to be willing to cut ties, cash out while the value is still there and start over. I have a feeling we'll find out how accurate the Borg's player valuation system in in the next 3-4 seasons. As a team front office I think being able to recognize the right time to go all in is also very important.

The flip side of paying the price to win now, is selling off those aging vets, having a few down seasons where you restock the prospect pool and hope to get right back into the mix asap.

Building for long term success is obviously a goal because you can't win anything if you're not invited to the big dance. But you've got to be able and willing to go all in when you feel it's time to take a shot at the thing.

I know the Hurricanes FO values things differently, and I used to as a fan myself. But I'm personally coming around to the idea that we need a franchise caliber goalie. What was the last team to win a SC without a top 5 Vezina goalie? Like, I'm seriously asking? Not only can they steal a few game's when you most need it but I think it provides a level of confidence to the players that's needed to win Lord Stanley's Cup.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

As a team front office I think being able to recognize the right time to go all in is also very important.

I kinda think the time to go "all in" is... never.

Adding one or two good pieces for assets at a trade deadline is one thing, and it's worth doing something like that most years, especially if you're good at getting value. But "all in" implies selling a lot of assets for one run, and I think that's a mistake.

In 2006, the Canes basically traded a second round pick and some odds and ends (Boulerice, Zigomanis being the only memorable names) to get Weight and Recchi. That's as close to going "all in" as I hope we ever do. And that wasn't what cost the team in the following years -- it was handing out NMCs and being cheap that hamstrung us, and having to get rid of good assets to get rid of bad assets.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

On the topic of Hamilton, the concern I have more broadly is what they will do with the cap space created by squeezing all their good players to sub-market value, which will result in the exit of some.

When you look at all of the ELCs and cap efficient contracts on the books this past season, the savings were used on an old buyout, rolled over performance bonuses in part because of a trade that saw them take on a cap dump for a draft pick the prior year, a semi-healthy $4 mil 7th defenseman, and multiple $2 mil (+) wingers on a 4th line when at full health.

Depth is really important, but don't swing too far in that direction.

 

[NotOpie]

I kinda think the time to go "all in" is... never.

Adding one or two good pieces for assets at a trade deadline is one thing, and it's worth doing something like that most years, especially if you're good at getting value. But "all in" implies selling a lot of assets for one run, and I think that's a mistake.

In 2006, the Canes basically traded a second round pick and some odds and ends (Boulerice, Zigomanis being the only memorable names) to get Weight and Recchi. That's as close to going "all in" as I hope we ever do. And that wasn't what cost the team in the following years -- it was handing out NMCs and being cheap that hamstrung us, and having to get rid of good assets to get rid of bad assets.

Not to nit pick but the Weight trade involved players and multiple picks, including the 2006 1st.

 

[ndp]

I kinda think the time to go "all in" is... never.

Adding one or two good pieces for assets at a trade deadline is one thing, and it's worth doing something like that most years, especially if you're good at getting value. But "all in" implies selling a lot of assets for one run, and I think that's a mistake.

In 2006, the Canes basically traded a second round pick and some odds and ends (Boulerice, Zigomanis being the only memorable names) to get Weight and Recchi. That's as close to going "all in" as I hope we ever do. And that wasn't what cost the team in the following years -- it was handing out NMCs and being cheap that hamstrung us, and having to get rid of good assets to get rid of bad assets.

I basically agree with all of this. I guess I should clarify what I mean by going all in. It's definitely not mortgaging the future on one run. I don't mind them moving future assets for players with term, I don't think the Borg will ever be UFA big name deadline hunters, and I'm fine with that. I think they're going to have to use assets and dollars to create a good core and then potentially pay a longer term price to keep that core together.

It's definitely a fine line, a true balancing act and there's a reason guys get paid the big bucks to make these decisions and I'm just a poor ol NC farmboy trying to make sure the bills are paid.

 

[ndp]

On the topic of Hamilton, the concern I have more broadly is what they will do with the cap space created by squeezing all their good players to sub-market value, which will result in the exit of some.

When you look at all of the ELCs and cap efficient contracts on the books this past season, the savings were used on an old buyout, rolled over performance bonuses in part because of a trade that saw them take on a cap dump for a draft pick the prior year, a semi-healthy $4 mil 7th defenseman, and multiple $2 mil (+) wingers on a 4th line when at full health.

Depth is really important, but don't swing too far in that direction.

This is one of my fears of having RBA too involved in player decisions. Guy loves his grinders, and they're players that every successful team needs and has. But the glue guys need top end talent to make them productive. It's a matter of funding, aquiring, and retaining that top end talent so they can grow together, and become the heat and soul, the core of a good team.

Not to harp on it again and again, but when was the last SC winner, or finalists, that didn't have a top 5-10 Norris voting defenseman, and or a top 5-10 Vezina goalie? Currently the Hurricanes have neither of those pieces under contract for next season...

 

[Chrispy]

I know the Hurricanes FO values things differently, and I used to as a fan myself. But I'm personally coming around to the idea that we need a franchise caliber goalie. What was the last team to win a SC without a top 5 Vezina goalie? Like, I'm seriously asking? Not only can they steal a few game's when you most need it but I think it provides a level of confidence to the players that's needed to win Lord Stanley's Cup.

2018, Washington. Neither Holtby nor Grubauer was in the top 9 that year.

Pittsburgh B2B in 16 and 17. No votes for any PIT goalie either year.

Chicago in 15, Crawford was just outside the top 5.

Binnington came out of nowhere in 2019 and finished tied for 5th in the Vezina.

If anything, Vasilevsky is bucking recent history.

 

[Wolfpuck]

I want us to suck every year.

 

[SoupNazi]

I want us to suck every year.

That's one way to always have the off-season to look forward to.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I want us to suck every year.

You had a good decade, then.

 

[Wolfpuck]

You had a good decade, then.

These last 3 years have been bullshit.

 

[Highest Boss]

whatever makes Dundon money. Because reality.

 

[mikeyfan]

I think you have to look at our core players and when their contracts expire.

next year we lose Trocheck
2022-2023 is the last season for Jordon Staal
2023-2024 is the last season for Aho, Teuvo, Skjei, and Pesce

So with this core group we have 3 seasons left to win the Cup. Understanding that we can resign Teuvo and Aho, hopefully Pesce but as it stands right now our window is not really that great. IMO

 

[Discipline Daddy]

I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect the Hurricanes to win the cup every even-numbered year, and in turn to miss the playoffs every odd-numbered year. I will give up my fandom if this happens, including if we win the cup next year, but then make the playoffs again the year following.

 

[VAcaniac]

Long term consistency would be cool.

Are the Canes allowed to make the playoffs every year? Still hard to believe we’ve done it 3 years in a row now…

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not to nit pick but the Weight trade involved players and multiple picks, including the 2006 1st.

But you did nit pick.