Where the Jets have changed since the deadline and where's the opportunity to improve

[JetsFan815]

In the GDT a question was posed as to why the Jets have stumbled in the last ~2 months compared to their great record earlier in the season.

The Jets have had for the most part very stable lines that essentially divide the season in broad strokes in to 3 roughly equal parts:

1. Iafallo top line era
2. Ehlers top line era
3. Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad)

Lets look at the Jets goal differential during each of these periods. For this I will simply focus on plain goals for/against without invoking any fancy stats as they rub some the wrong way.


Iafallo top line era: This essentially lasts from game 5 till the Nov 29th consisting of 17 games. The Jets record during this period:

Points %: 0.706

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	12	13	-1
5v5	36	24	+12
Top line	9	11	-2
2nd line	13	5	+8
3rd line	12	5	+7
4th line	2	2	+0

During this period the Jets are +12 at 5v5 while enjoying some great goaltending. Their top line is mediocre whereas the 2nd and 3rd lines are driving most of their impact. It is to be noted that the during this period the 2nd and 3rd lines are riding a 105 PDO indicating their results may not sustainable, you certainly don't expect Lowry line to keep up that sh%.. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 48.77.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ehlers top line era: On Nov 30th Rick Bowness makes a change demoting Iafallo and promoting Ehlers to the top line. This more or less lasts until January 11th when Scheifele is hurt and Connor comes back in the next 2 games. This period consists of 19 games


Points %: 0.842

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	9	11	-2
5v5	49	20	+29
Top line	20	5	+15
2nd line	13	4	+9
3rd line	7	6	+1
4th line	9	3	+6

Jets best stretch of the season, special teams stay mediocre, the 3rd line cools down as you would expect but now the top line with Ehlers on it is driving elite impact with some good contributions from the 4th line. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 54.29 right up there with the best in the league.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad): Coming back from All Star Break, 2 big changes are made to the Jets setup, Ehlers gets moved to the 2nd line with Connor taking his spot on the top line and Monahan taking over 2nd line duties with Vlad down to the 4th line. Jets play 24 games during this period.


Points %: 0.583

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	15	17	-2
5v5	46	42	+4
Top line	16	17	-1
2nd line	13	8	+5
3rd line	10	6	+4
4th line	8	9	-1

This is where the 5v5 numbers decline. Special teams continue to be mediocre. Top line which was driving elite impact in the previous period is now back under water. 2nd and 3rd lines continue to hold their head above water. One important note here is that while the 2nd line here is a + line, this line now has Ehlers on it, in Nov/Dec, it was delivering a positive and slightly better impact with Perfetti/Names/Iafallo freeing up Ehlers to help the top line. If you care the Jets exepected goals% is 51.08 primarily driven by the Lowry line and the 2nd line.


Conclusions:

So what are the conclusions? Nothing here is unexpected and pretty much tracks what we have been talking about on this board. Jets special teams are ordinary at every point with their best hope being breaking even, the Jets cannot rely on special teams to win games. To win games they have get their 5v5 play back to where it was... 3rd line is playing well and is pretty much maxed out, their production in this post-ASB period is what you can expect from them, 2nd line is OK, not as great as it was in the Vlad/Perfetti/Iafallo but still has held its own.

Where there is the most room for improvement is the top line. The Jets are so 5v5 dependent due to their subpar special teams that they simply cannot hope to contend with their top line being a -1 line at 5v5 as it has been since the ASB. Their underlying numbers are much worse and they could easily have a much worse differential. On the other hand even if they were a decent top line going at +5, if you keep the numbers of the other lines the same, that alone is the difference between a record of a team that is around 4th-5th in 5v5 goal differential to one that is 12-13th in the league... essentially the difference between fighting for the top of the division to being on the cusp of being a wildcard team.

Where this season goes is on the shoulders of the top line. The number 1 priority has to be to get them going to provide a positive impact at whatever the cost. Ehlers-Scheifele combo is the only one that has provided this unit with a positive impact but nothing can be off the table as this is the Jets biggest opportunity to make gains. It is almost to a point that they need to prioritize fixing that top line and then using whatever spare parts are left over for their 2nd line.

(I had posted a version of this yesterday but thought there was a mistake in it so I deleted it in case you think you are getting dejavu :p )

Click to read more...

 

[LowLefty]

In the GDT a question was posed as to why the Jets have stumbled in the last ~2 months compared to their great record earlier in the season.

The Jets have had for the most part very stable lines that essentially divide the season in broad strokes in to 3 roughly equal parts:

1. Iafallo top line era
2. Ehlers top line era
3. Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad)

Lets look at the Jets goal differential during each of these periods. For this I will simply focus on plain goals for/against without invoking any fancy stats as they rub some the wrong way.


Iafallo top line era: This essentially lasts from game 5 till the Nov 29th consisting of 17 games. The Jets record during this period:

Points %: 0.706

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	12	13	-1
5v5	36	24	+12
Top line	9	11	-2
2nd line	13	5	+8
3rd line	12	5	+7
4th line	2	2	+0

During this period the Jets are +12 at 5v5 while enjoying some great goaltending. Their top line is mediocre whereas the 2nd and 3rd lines are driving most of their impact. It is to be noted that the during this period the 2nd and 3rd lines are riding a 105 PDO indicating their results may not sustainable, you certainly don't expect Lowry line to keep up that sh%.. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 48.77.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ehlers top line era: On Nov 30th Rick Bowness makes a change demoting Iafallo and promoting Ehlers to the top line. This more or less lasts until January 11th when Scheifele is hurt and Connor comes back in the next 2 games. This period consists of 19 games


Points %: 0.842

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	9	11	-2
5v5	49	20	+29
Top line	20	5	+15
2nd line	13	4	+9
3rd line	7	6	+1
4th line	9	3	+6

Jets best stretch of the season, special teams stay mediocre, the 3rd line cools down as you would expect but now the top line with Ehlers on it is driving elite impact with some good contributions from the 4th line. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 54.29 right up there with the best in the league.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad): Coming back from All Star Break, 2 big changes are made to the Jets setup, Ehlers gets moved to the 2nd line with Connor taking his spot on the top line and Monahan taking over 2nd line duties with Vlad down to the 4th line. Jets play 24 games during this period.


Points %: 0.583

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	15	17	-2
5v5	46	42	+4
Top line	16	17	-1
2nd line	13	8	+5
3rd line	10	6	+4
4th line	8	9	-1

This is where the 5v5 numbers decline. Special teams continue to be mediocre. Top line which was driving elite impact in the previous period is now back under water. 2nd and 3rd lines continue to hold their head above water. One important note here is that while the 2nd line here is a + line, this line now has Ehlers on it, in Nov/Dec, it was delivering a positive and slightly better impact with Perfetti/Names/Iafallo freeing up Ehlers to help the top line. If you care the Jets exepected goals% is 51.08 primarily driven by the Lowry line and the 2nd line.


Conclusions:

So what are the conclusions? Nothing here is unexpected and pretty much tracks what we have been talking about on this board. Jets special teams are ordinary at every point with their best hope being breaking even, the Jets cannot rely on special teams to win games. To win games they have get their 5v5 play back to where it was... 3rd line is playing well and is pretty much maxed out, their production in this post-ASB period is what you can expect from them, 2nd line is OK, not as great as it was in the Vlad/Perfetti/Iafallo but still has held its own.

Where there is the most room for improvement is the top line. The Jets are so 5v5 dependent due to their subpar special teams that they simply cannot hope to contend with their top line being a -1 line at 5v5 as it has been since the ASB. Their underlying numbers are much worse and they could easily have a much worse differential. On the other hand even if they were a decent top line going at +5, if you keep the numbers of the other lines the same, that alone is the difference between a record of a team that is around 4th-5th in 5v5 goal differential to one that is 12-13th in the league... essentially the difference between fighting for the top of the division to being on the cusp of being a wildcard team.

Where this season goes is on the shoulders of the top line. The number 1 priority has to be to get them going to provide a positive impact at whatever the cost. It is almost to a point that they need to prioritize fixing that top line and then using whatever spare parts are left over for their 2nd line.

(I had posted a version of this yesterday but thought there was a mistake in it so I deleted it in case you think you are getting dejavu :p )

Vilardi should be back soon - let's see where it goes from there . . . .

 

[ecolad]

In the GDT a question was posed as to why the Jets have stumbled in the last ~2 months compared to their great record earlier in the season.

The Jets have had for the most part very stable lines that essentially divide the season in broad strokes in to 3 roughly equal parts:

1. Iafallo top line era
2. Ehlers top line era
3. Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad)

Lets look at the Jets goal differential during each of these periods. For this I will simply focus on plain goals for/against without invoking any fancy stats as they rub some the wrong way.


Iafallo top line era: This essentially lasts from game 5 till the Nov 29th consisting of 17 games. The Jets record during this period:

Points %: 0.706

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	12	13	-1
5v5	36	24	+12
Top line	9	11	-2
2nd line	13	5	+8
3rd line	12	5	+7
4th line	2	2	+0

During this period the Jets are +12 at 5v5 while enjoying some great goaltending. Their top line is mediocre whereas the 2nd and 3rd lines are driving most of their impact. It is to be noted that the during this period the 2nd and 3rd lines are riding a 105 PDO indicating their results may not sustainable, you certainly don't expect Lowry line to keep up that sh%.. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 48.77.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ehlers top line era: On Nov 30th Rick Bowness makes a change demoting Iafallo and promoting Ehlers to the top line. This more or less lasts until January 11th when Scheifele is hurt and Connor comes back in the next 2 games. This period consists of 19 games


Points %: 0.842

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	9	11	-2
5v5	49	20	+29
Top line	20	5	+15
2nd line	13	4	+9
3rd line	7	6	+1
4th line	9	3	+6

Jets best stretch of the season, special teams stay mediocre, the 3rd line cools down as you would expect but now the top line with Ehlers on it is driving elite impact with some good contributions from the 4th line. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 54.29 right up there with the best in the league.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad): Coming back from All Star Break, 2 big changes are made to the Jets setup, Ehlers gets moved to the 2nd line with Connor taking his spot on the top line and Monahan taking over 2nd line duties with Vlad down to the 4th line. Jets play 24 games during this period.


Points %: 0.583

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	15	17	-2
5v5	46	42	+4
Top line	16	17	-1
2nd line	13	8	+5
3rd line	10	6	+4
4th line	8	9	-1

This is where the 5v5 numbers decline. Special teams continue to be mediocre. Top line which was driving elite impact in the previous period is now back under water. 2nd and 3rd lines continue to hold their head above water. One important note here is that while the 2nd line here is a + line, this line now has Ehlers on it, in Nov/Dec, it was delivering a positive and slightly better impact with Perfetti/Names/Iafallo freeing up Ehlers to help the top line. If you care the Jets exepected goals% is 51.08 primarily driven by the Lowry line and the 2nd line.


Conclusions:

So what are the conclusions? Nothing here is unexpected and pretty much tracks what we have been talking about on this board. Jets special teams are ordinary at every point with their best hope being breaking even, the Jets cannot rely on special teams to win games. To win games they have get their 5v5 play back to where it was... 3rd line is playing well and is pretty much maxed out, their production in this post-ASB period is what you can expect from them, 2nd line is OK, not as great as it was in the Vlad/Perfetti/Iafallo but still has held its own.

Where there is the most room for improvement is the top line. The Jets are so 5v5 dependent due to their subpar special teams that they simply cannot hope to contend with their top line being a -1 line at 5v5 as it has been since the ASB. Their underlying numbers are much worse and they could easily have a much worse differential. On the other hand even if they were a decent top line going at +5, if you keep the numbers of the other lines the same, that alone is the difference between a record of a team that is around 4th-5th in 5v5 goal differential to one that is 12-13th in the league... essentially the difference between fighting for the top of the division to being on the cusp of being a wildcard team.

Where this season goes is on the shoulders of the top line. The number 1 priority has to be to get them going to provide a positive impact at whatever the cost. Ehlers-Scheifele combo is the only one that has provided this unit with a positive impact but nothing can be off the table as this is the Jets biggest opportunity to make gains. It is almost to a point that they need to prioritize fixing that top line and then using whatever spare parts are left over for their 2nd line.

(I had posted a version of this yesterday but thought there was a mistake in it so I deleted it in case you think you are getting dejavu :p )

An excellent way to look at our season to date and basis upon which to draw some conclusions. Just want to commend you for the work and thought in putting this out here.

While I certainly agree that it is critical to get the top line playing to where they make a much stronger positive net contribution, I`m not sure about the "whatever the cost" notion. Seems to me the greater challenge is to put together 4 lines that collectively result in the largest TEAM positive net contribution (even if the top line is slightly less than optimal),

As to how to accomplish this,my own view is that Bowness gives only passing consideration to how player attributes/ playstyle preferences might most optimally "fit together" and complement one another to best advantage. He is much more focussed on how each individual might fulfill a role in his predetermined team style of play and line style of play. My expectation is therefore that he is not likely to get good results when reconstructing lines or even trying to fit newcomers into established lines. But perhaps he will stumble into a strong lineup, the proof of the pudding is in the eating as they say.

 

[Flair Hay]

Thanks for sharing this. A lot of good detail in here without it being too much information. Well done.

Some things I took out of this:

1) Perfetti-Namestnikov-Iafallo seems like a pretty solid bet to contribute as a 4th line if it succeeded for a decent period of time as a 2nd line.

Barron instead of Perfetti can hopefully provide similar impact (doubt Barron is scratched for Cole, or Lowry line is broken up)

2) I don't want to paint it as black and white... There is a reason so many people believe Ehlers and Scheifele should be playing together and this highlights it.

3) 2nd line has continued to pull its weight with Monahan just enough, and he has helped on Special Teams. 5v5 there is basically zero drop-off to Namestnikov like the stats indicated may be the case pre-trade.

Look forward to diving a little deeper into it later!

 

[DRW204]

V nice summary and well articulated of what many have been saying through the year.

 

[SUX2BU]

In the GDT a question was posed as to why the Jets have stumbled in the last ~2 months compared to their great record earlier in the season.

The Jets have had for the most part very stable lines that essentially divide the season in broad strokes in to 3 roughly equal parts:

1. Iafallo top line era
2. Ehlers top line era
3. Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad)

Lets look at the Jets goal differential during each of these periods. For this I will simply focus on plain goals for/against without invoking any fancy stats as they rub some the wrong way.


Iafallo top line era: This essentially lasts from game 5 till the Nov 29th consisting of 17 games. The Jets record during this period:

Points %: 0.706

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	12	13	-1
5v5	36	24	+12
Top line	9	11	-2
2nd line	13	5	+8
3rd line	12	5	+7
4th line	2	2	+0

During this period the Jets are +12 at 5v5 while enjoying some great goaltending. Their top line is mediocre whereas the 2nd and 3rd lines are driving most of their impact. It is to be noted that the during this period the 2nd and 3rd lines are riding a 105 PDO indicating their results may not sustainable, you certainly don't expect Lowry line to keep up that sh%.. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 48.77.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ehlers top line era: On Nov 30th Rick Bowness makes a change demoting Iafallo and promoting Ehlers to the top line. This more or less lasts until January 11th when Scheifele is hurt and Connor comes back in the next 2 games. This period consists of 19 games


Points %: 0.842

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	9	11	-2
5v5	49	20	+29
Top line	20	5	+15
2nd line	13	4	+9
3rd line	7	6	+1
4th line	9	3	+6

Jets best stretch of the season, special teams stay mediocre, the 3rd line cools down as you would expect but now the top line with Ehlers on it is driving elite impact with some good contributions from the 4th line. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 54.29 right up there with the best in the league.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad): Coming back from All Star Break, 2 big changes are made to the Jets setup, Ehlers gets moved to the 2nd line with Connor taking his spot on the top line and Monahan taking over 2nd line duties with Vlad down to the 4th line. Jets play 24 games during this period.


Points %: 0.583

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	15	17	-2
5v5	46	42	+4
Top line	16	17	-1
2nd line	13	8	+5
3rd line	10	6	+4
4th line	8	9	-1

This is where the 5v5 numbers decline. Special teams continue to be mediocre. Top line which was driving elite impact in the previous period is now back under water. 2nd and 3rd lines continue to hold their head above water. One important note here is that while the 2nd line here is a + line, this line now has Ehlers on it, in Nov/Dec, it was delivering a positive and slightly better impact with Perfetti/Names/Iafallo freeing up Ehlers to help the top line. If you care the Jets exepected goals% is 51.08 primarily driven by the Lowry line and the 2nd line.


Conclusions:

So what are the conclusions? Nothing here is unexpected and pretty much tracks what we have been talking about on this board. Jets special teams are ordinary at every point with their best hope being breaking even, the Jets cannot rely on special teams to win games. To win games they have get their 5v5 play back to where it was... 3rd line is playing well and is pretty much maxed out, their production in this post-ASB period is what you can expect from them, 2nd line is OK, not as great as it was in the Vlad/Perfetti/Iafallo but still has held its own.

Where there is the most room for improvement is the top line. The Jets are so 5v5 dependent due to their subpar special teams that they simply cannot hope to contend with their top line being a -1 line at 5v5 as it has been since the ASB. Their underlying numbers are much worse and they could easily have a much worse differential. On the other hand even if they were a decent top line going at +5, if you keep the numbers of the other lines the same, that alone is the difference between a record of a team that is around 4th-5th in 5v5 goal differential to one that is 12-13th in the league... essentially the difference between fighting for the top of the division to being on the cusp of being a wildcard team.

Where this season goes is on the shoulders of the top line. The number 1 priority has to be to get them going to provide a positive impact at whatever the cost. Ehlers-Scheifele combo is the only one that has provided this unit with a positive impact but nothing can be off the table as this is the Jets biggest opportunity to make gains. It is almost to a point that they need to prioritize fixing that top line and then using whatever spare parts are left over for their 2nd line.

(I had posted a version of this yesterday but thought there was a mistake in it so I deleted it in case you think you are getting dejavu :p )

Bring back Stempiak .......................

 

[ecolad]

Oh yeah, as unlikely as it probably is that they will do an entire team reassessment at this juncture, they will have to at least consider remodelling the 3rd line (which seems to be unthinkable to date). Imo Neidereitter is far too valuable a player and should be considered to balance either of the top lines. Can we not build a "checking line" with Lowry centering others, even if they do little but maintain a net zero scoring.

 

[kanadalainen]

In the GDT a question was posed as to why the Jets have stumbled in the last ~2 months compared to their great record earlier in the season.

The Jets have had for the most part very stable lines that essentially divide the season in broad strokes in to 3 roughly equal parts:

1. Iafallo top line era
2. Ehlers top line era
3. Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad)

Lets look at the Jets goal differential during each of these periods. For this I will simply focus on plain goals for/against without invoking any fancy stats as they rub some the wrong way.


Iafallo top line era: This essentially lasts from game 5 till the Nov 29th consisting of 17 games. The Jets record during this period:

Points %: 0.706

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	12	13	-1
5v5	36	24	+12
Top line	9	11	-2
2nd line	13	5	+8
3rd line	12	5	+7
4th line	2	2	+0

During this period the Jets are +12 at 5v5 while enjoying some great goaltending. Their top line is mediocre whereas the 2nd and 3rd lines are driving most of their impact. It is to be noted that the during this period the 2nd and 3rd lines are riding a 105 PDO indicating their results may not sustainable, you certainly don't expect Lowry line to keep up that sh%.. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 48.77.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ehlers top line era: On Nov 30th Rick Bowness makes a change demoting Iafallo and promoting Ehlers to the top line. This more or less lasts until January 11th when Scheifele is hurt and Connor comes back in the next 2 games. This period consists of 19 games


Points %: 0.842

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	9	11	-2
5v5	49	20	+29
Top line	20	5	+15
2nd line	13	4	+9
3rd line	7	6	+1
4th line	9	3	+6

Jets best stretch of the season, special teams stay mediocre, the 3rd line cools down as you would expect but now the top line with Ehlers on it is driving elite impact with some good contributions from the 4th line. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 54.29 right up there with the best in the league.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad): Coming back from All Star Break, 2 big changes are made to the Jets setup, Ehlers gets moved to the 2nd line with Connor taking his spot on the top line and Monahan taking over 2nd line duties with Vlad down to the 4th line. Jets play 24 games during this period.


Points %: 0.583

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	15	17	-2
5v5	46	42	+4
Top line	16	17	-1
2nd line	13	8	+5
3rd line	10	6	+4
4th line	8	9	-1

This is where the 5v5 numbers decline. Special teams continue to be mediocre. Top line which was driving elite impact in the previous period is now back under water. 2nd and 3rd lines continue to hold their head above water. One important note here is that while the 2nd line here is a + line, this line now has Ehlers on it, in Nov/Dec, it was delivering a positive and slightly better impact with Perfetti/Names/Iafallo freeing up Ehlers to help the top line. If you care the Jets exepected goals% is 51.08 primarily driven by the Lowry line and the 2nd line.


Conclusions:

So what are the conclusions? Nothing here is unexpected and pretty much tracks what we have been talking about on this board. Jets special teams are ordinary at every point with their best hope being breaking even, the Jets cannot rely on special teams to win games. To win games they have get their 5v5 play back to where it was... 3rd line is playing well and is pretty much maxed out, their production in this post-ASB period is what you can expect from them, 2nd line is OK, not as great as it was in the Vlad/Perfetti/Iafallo but still has held its own.

Where there is the most room for improvement is the top line. The Jets are so 5v5 dependent due to their subpar special teams that they simply cannot hope to contend with their top line being a -1 line at 5v5 as it has been since the ASB. Their underlying numbers are much worse and they could easily have a much worse differential. On the other hand even if they were a decent top line going at +5, if you keep the numbers of the other lines the same, that alone is the difference between a record of a team that is around 4th-5th in 5v5 goal differential to one that is 12-13th in the league... essentially the difference between fighting for the top of the division to being on the cusp of being a wildcard team.

Where this season goes is on the shoulders of the top line. The number 1 priority has to be to get them going to provide a positive impact at whatever the cost. Ehlers-Scheifele combo is the only one that has provided this unit with a positive impact but nothing can be off the table as this is the Jets biggest opportunity to make gains. It is almost to a point that they need to prioritize fixing that top line and then using whatever spare parts are left over for their 2nd line.

(I had posted a version of this yesterday but thought there was a mistake in it so I deleted it in case you think you are getting dejavu :p )

Thanks for reposting this. Your stuff is appreciated, old horse.

 

[Buffdog]

In the GDT a question was posed as to why the Jets have stumbled in the last ~2 months compared to their great record earlier in the season.

The Jets have had for the most part very stable lines that essentially divide the season in broad strokes in to 3 roughly equal parts:

1. Iafallo top line era
2. Ehlers top line era
3. Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad)

Lets look at the Jets goal differential during each of these periods. For this I will simply focus on plain goals for/against without invoking any fancy stats as they rub some the wrong way.


Iafallo top line era: This essentially lasts from game 5 till the Nov 29th consisting of 17 games. The Jets record during this period:

Points %: 0.706

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	12	13	-1
5v5	36	24	+12
Top line	9	11	-2
2nd line	13	5	+8
3rd line	12	5	+7
4th line	2	2	+0

During this period the Jets are +12 at 5v5 while enjoying some great goaltending. Their top line is mediocre whereas the 2nd and 3rd lines are driving most of their impact. It is to be noted that the during this period the 2nd and 3rd lines are riding a 105 PDO indicating their results may not sustainable, you certainly don't expect Lowry line to keep up that sh%.. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 48.77.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ehlers top line era: On Nov 30th Rick Bowness makes a change demoting Iafallo and promoting Ehlers to the top line. This more or less lasts until January 11th when Scheifele is hurt and Connor comes back in the next 2 games. This period consists of 19 games


Points %: 0.842

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	9	11	-2
5v5	49	20	+29
Top line	20	5	+15
2nd line	13	4	+9
3rd line	7	6	+1
4th line	9	3	+6

Jets best stretch of the season, special teams stay mediocre, the 3rd line cools down as you would expect but now the top line with Ehlers on it is driving elite impact with some good contributions from the 4th line. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 54.29 right up there with the best in the league.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad): Coming back from All Star Break, 2 big changes are made to the Jets setup, Ehlers gets moved to the 2nd line with Connor taking his spot on the top line and Monahan taking over 2nd line duties with Vlad down to the 4th line. Jets play 24 games during this period.


Points %: 0.583

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	15	17	-2
5v5	46	42	+4
Top line	16	17	-1
2nd line	13	8	+5
3rd line	10	6	+4
4th line	8	9	-1

This is where the 5v5 numbers decline. Special teams continue to be mediocre. Top line which was driving elite impact in the previous period is now back under water. 2nd and 3rd lines continue to hold their head above water. One important note here is that while the 2nd line here is a + line, this line now has Ehlers on it, in Nov/Dec, it was delivering a positive and slightly better impact with Perfetti/Names/Iafallo freeing up Ehlers to help the top line. If you care the Jets exepected goals% is 51.08 primarily driven by the Lowry line and the 2nd line.


Conclusions:

So what are the conclusions? Nothing here is unexpected and pretty much tracks what we have been talking about on this board. Jets special teams are ordinary at every point with their best hope being breaking even, the Jets cannot rely on special teams to win games. To win games they have get their 5v5 play back to where it was... 3rd line is playing well and is pretty much maxed out, their production in this post-ASB period is what you can expect from them, 2nd line is OK, not as great as it was in the Vlad/Perfetti/Iafallo but still has held its own.

Where there is the most room for improvement is the top line. The Jets are so 5v5 dependent due to their subpar special teams that they simply cannot hope to contend with their top line being a -1 line at 5v5 as it has been since the ASB. Their underlying numbers are much worse and they could easily have a much worse differential. On the other hand even if they were a decent top line going at +5, if you keep the numbers of the other lines the same, that alone is the difference between a record of a team that is around 4th-5th in 5v5 goal differential to one that is 12-13th in the league... essentially the difference between fighting for the top of the division to being on the cusp of being a wildcard team.

Where this season goes is on the shoulders of the top line. The number 1 priority has to be to get them going to provide a positive impact at whatever the cost. Ehlers-Scheifele combo is the only one that has provided this unit with a positive impact but nothing can be off the table as this is the Jets biggest opportunity to make gains. It is almost to a point that they need to prioritize fixing that top line and then using whatever spare parts are left over for their 2nd line.

(I had posted a version of this yesterday but thought there was a mistake in it so I deleted it in case you think you are getting dejavu :p )

While I appreciate the time and effort you put into the line combo factor, I think that you place more importance on it than it deserves. You'll notice that all the lines were their best when the top line was crushing. That to me means that the problems the Jets have had when they've struggled have been team-wide (unless you're going to somehow argue that Ehlers on the top line made the 4th line better, etc)

These are lots of factors that are more important to the Jets success than who is on what line. I'm not sure why you're so myopic about that one thing

 

[JetsFan815]

You'll notice that all the lines were their best when the top line was crushing.

That is not the case at all and that's not what the data shows.

On the contrary the 3rd line has had their best numbers when the top line has struggled (in era 1 and era 3 of the season and in fact right now they are posting some of their best numbers both traditional and advanced while the top line is nuked)

The 2nd line has had pretty much the same differential regardless of whether the top line is doing well or not (and has their best run was in the first segment of the season when the top line struggled). In fact there appears to be no correlation between the +/- of top line vs the rest of the lineup combined.

 

[Buffdog]

That is not the case at all and that's not what the data shows.

On the contrary the 3rd line has had their best numbers when the top line has struggled (in era 1 and era 3 of the season and in fact right now they are posting some of their best numbers both traditional and advanced while the top line is nuked)

The 2nd line has had pretty much the same differential regardless of whether the top line is doing well or not (and has their best run was in the first segment of the season when the top line struggled). In fact there appears to be no correlation between the +/- of top line vs the rest of the lineup combined.

There's just no reasoning with you. You're so sure you're right about something that you won't even acknowledge other explanations. We've been through it with the rationale for Bones having Schief and Ehlers on different lines. Someone will bring up a point and you'll ignore it altogether and go off on some cognitive dissonance/confirmation bias rant

 

[scelaton]

There's just no reasoning with you. You're so sure you're right about something that you won't even acknowledge other explanations. We've been through it with the rationale for Bones having Schief and Ehlers on different lines. Someone will bring up a point and you'll ignore it altogether and go off on some cognitive dissonance/confirmation bias rant

JetsFan815 does get hyper-focused on certain subjects and players (hence the never-get-old jokes about Stempniak), but he is usually well-reasoned and the research is always appreciated.

OTOH, drive by insults to posters you disagree with ("myopic", "blissfully close minded", countless others) add nothing to the discussion.

 

[raideralex99]

Don't get me wrong ... I'm not bashing the numbers but a lot more has to be taken into account.
The schedule is very important like a loaded or light schedule are they good/bad teams do those teams had major injuries, do the Jets have injuries and of course the refs ... are they calling everything or are they letting them play?
Too many variables so I always go with the coaches decisions since they have the inside track.
Use the Kings for example their last 17 games of the season they only play 4 top teams they never played the Hawks until March 15 so they have 3 games with them ... oh look the Kings are 7-3 and have good stats and they only play 14 games in March.
How about Tampa only 11 games in March and they are 7-1-1 ... rest at this time of year is much needed so yes schedule makes a big difference on team stats.

 

[Atoyot]

Vilardi should be back soon - let's see where it goes from there . . . .

Vilardi and Ehlers were dynamite together. I'd be surprised if they were reunited when the team's healthy though.

 

[jiho]

I am feeling the problem is not only what has changed since this years deadline but this has also been a problem of play declining after the deadline in this season as well as 2019 and 2023 and I dont think that is a coincidence. I would say the style of play changes a little bit in the second half of the season and then another step up in the playoffs as well. It is my hunch not what has changed and more that the Jets do not have the right mix of players to win. You can call it what you want: discipline to play a system or type of system, enough grit, too many of the same type of players but it just seems something is missing. On paper the Jets look like they could win the Cup this year. If they come up flat again this season I would say this team needs to make a major change in the lineup as it appears they just do not have the right mix.

 

[Buffdog]

Vilardi and Ehlers were dynamite together. I'd be surprised if they were reunited when the team's healthy though.

I think at some point, after presenting dozens of well reasoned arguments only to entirely ignored, frustration kicks in. So I am partially capable of disagreeing with someone without insulting them, but only up to a point (as is the case with most of us). In other words, it's not a "disagreement" issue, it's a "patience" issue

But when someone starts chucking rocks at me from their glass house, maybe it's time I take a look at how I handle some posters

 

[WolfHouse]

I would frame this season as:
1. Bottom six production/System buy-in
2. Winning streak/cracks appear
3. Connor's return/winning streak ego
4. Allstar break - Monahan PP carries the team
5. Post trade deadline tinkering/flushing games - Colin Miller who?

That being said, I'm afraid to look at our total season record vs. playoff teams and vs. non playoff teams... It may point to one basic trend through the whole season with a few blips

The last three blocks of the season are a lot shorter than the first two - because the team is in a bit of chaos.

These players need the same rope to succeed as Connor/Scheif get...
- Ehlers on top line
- Dillon/Samberg - yes put Samberg on his off-side, we do it to help Stan so why not
- Nino in top six - Barron would THRIVE in his spot on 3rd line
- Pray Vilardi is fully healthy
- Get Pionk OFF the fkn PK

The team has so much 'depth' that we don't fit the structure we set up early in the season while we had injuries - now our depth doesn't fit the roles we have established for the lines - so something has to give...

At this point in the season.. run with
Ehlers-Scheif-Nino/Vilardi (top line - balance but all play drivers)
Connor-Monahan-Toffoli (shooters - two drive the net)
AJF/Nino-Lowry-Apples (shutdown with AJF speed forecheck)
Barron-Gus-Perfetti (energy line - two fast forecheckers and a playmaker)
Iafallo-Names

Its not going to be popular with fans... but we are missing AJF speed and Apples doesn't have the top end he had earlier in the season.

PK is not working now so who gives AF - always have someone out there to win the face-off
Monahan-Gus
Barron-Lowry
Nino-Connor (Get him back on PK)

PP
Vilardi-Monahan-Connor
Scheif-Morrissey
Nino-Gus-Toffoli (Gus wins face-offs - Stenlund style...)
Samberg-Ehlers

D
Jomo-DM
Dillon-Samberg
Schmidt-Miller
Pionk

I'd even play Stan-Miller and bench both of our 'offensive' D men that never score

If you think this is drastic, wait until we hit wildcard...

 

[Buffdog]

JetsFan815 does get hyper-focused on certain subjects and players (hence the never-get-old jokes about Stempniak), but he is usually well-reasoned and the research is always appreciated.

OTOH, drive by insults to posters you disagree with ("myopic", "blissfully close minded", countless others) add nothing to the discussion.

Based on the posts that @JetsFan815 has made on this board when someone disagrees with them, would you call them "open-minded"? Can you show me just ONE example of them saying "I was wrong about that" or EVEN "I didn't realize that, I'll have to rethink my position"?

As for the myopia... what percentage of his posts are about line combos?

Why is me calling their posting patterns what they are "insulting"? They're close minded and myopic.

And I'm a bit of a dick. My posting pattern shows that too. But I don't give a f*** when someone points it out to me, because I own it

 

[LowLefty]

Vilardi and Ehlers were dynamite together. I'd be surprised if they were reunited when the team's healthy though.

I think the top 6 will be going through a fast and furious blender once Vilardi is back - and hopefully they find combo's that they can take into the PO's -
I think our top 6, when healthy, is good enough to create 2 lines that can score - and hopefully everyone is happy - but they won't be.
And with our top 6 winger strength, it shouldn't matter who lines up with who - at least on paper - thus the need for the blender, again.

 

[Atoyot]

You're right man, everyone else is the problem.

 

[raideralex99]

That being said, I'm afraid to look at our total season record vs. playoff teams and vs. non playoff teams... It may point to one basic trend through the whole season with a few blips

I'll help you.
Top 7 teams
1. NY Rangers !-0-1
2. Canucks 1-1
3. Panthers 2-0
4. Avs 2-0
5. Canes 2-0
6. Stars 0-2
7. Bruins 1-1
8. Jets record vs top 7 team is 9-4-1
Remember HF wanted the Jets to be rebuild .. they signed Hellebuyck and Scheifele ... Jets are a wild card team.
Instead Jets are top 8 and people complaining because they want a player on a top line and Jets are losing some games.
Newsflash ... even with this losing streak the Jets have the most regular wins in the NHL with 39.

 

[ps241]

In the GDT a question was posed as to why the Jets have stumbled in the last ~2 months compared to their great record earlier in the season.

The Jets have had for the most part very stable lines that essentially divide the season in broad strokes in to 3 roughly equal parts:

1. Iafallo top line era
2. Ehlers top line era
3. Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad)

Lets look at the Jets goal differential during each of these periods. For this I will simply focus on plain goals for/against without invoking any fancy stats as they rub some the wrong way.


Iafallo top line era: This essentially lasts from game 5 till the Nov 29th consisting of 17 games. The Jets record during this period:

Points %: 0.706

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	12	13	-1
5v5	36	24	+12
Top line	9	11	-2
2nd line	13	5	+8
3rd line	12	5	+7
4th line	2	2	+0

During this period the Jets are +12 at 5v5 while enjoying some great goaltending. Their top line is mediocre whereas the 2nd and 3rd lines are driving most of their impact. It is to be noted that the during this period the 2nd and 3rd lines are riding a 105 PDO indicating their results may not sustainable, you certainly don't expect Lowry line to keep up that sh%.. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 48.77.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ehlers top line era: On Nov 30th Rick Bowness makes a change demoting Iafallo and promoting Ehlers to the top line. This more or less lasts until January 11th when Scheifele is hurt and Connor comes back in the next 2 games. This period consists of 19 games


Points %: 0.842

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	9	11	-2
5v5	49	20	+29
Top line	20	5	+15
2nd line	13	4	+9
3rd line	7	6	+1
4th line	9	3	+6

Jets best stretch of the season, special teams stay mediocre, the 3rd line cools down as you would expect but now the top line with Ehlers on it is driving elite impact with some good contributions from the 4th line. If you care, the expected goal % for the Jets is 54.29 right up there with the best in the league.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post All Star Break Era (Ehlers to 2nd line, Monahan now 2C instead of Vlad): Coming back from All Star Break, 2 big changes are made to the Jets setup, Ehlers gets moved to the 2nd line with Connor taking his spot on the top line and Monahan taking over 2nd line duties with Vlad down to the 4th line. Jets play 24 games during this period.


Points %: 0.583

	GF	GA	G+/-
Special Teams	15	17	-2
5v5	46	42	+4
Top line	16	17	-1
2nd line	13	8	+5
3rd line	10	6	+4
4th line	8	9	-1

This is where the 5v5 numbers decline. Special teams continue to be mediocre. Top line which was driving elite impact in the previous period is now back under water. 2nd and 3rd lines continue to hold their head above water. One important note here is that while the 2nd line here is a + line, this line now has Ehlers on it, in Nov/Dec, it was delivering a positive and slightly better impact with Perfetti/Names/Iafallo freeing up Ehlers to help the top line. If you care the Jets exepected goals% is 51.08 primarily driven by the Lowry line and the 2nd line.


Conclusions:

So what are the conclusions? Nothing here is unexpected and pretty much tracks what we have been talking about on this board. Jets special teams are ordinary at every point with their best hope being breaking even, the Jets cannot rely on special teams to win games. To win games they have get their 5v5 play back to where it was... 3rd line is playing well and is pretty much maxed out, their production in this post-ASB period is what you can expect from them, 2nd line is OK, not as great as it was in the Vlad/Perfetti/Iafallo but still has held its own.

Where there is the most room for improvement is the top line. The Jets are so 5v5 dependent due to their subpar special teams that they simply cannot hope to contend with their top line being a -1 line at 5v5 as it has been since the ASB. Their underlying numbers are much worse and they could easily have a much worse differential. On the other hand even if they were a decent top line going at +5, if you keep the numbers of the other lines the same, that alone is the difference between a record of a team that is around 4th-5th in 5v5 goal differential to one that is 12-13th in the league... essentially the difference between fighting for the top of the division to being on the cusp of being a wildcard team.

Where this season goes is on the shoulders of the top line. The number 1 priority has to be to get them going to provide a positive impact at whatever the cost. Ehlers-Scheifele combo is the only one that has provided this unit with a positive impact but nothing can be off the table as this is the Jets biggest opportunity to make gains. It is almost to a point that they need to prioritize fixing that top line and then using whatever spare parts are left over for their 2nd line.

(I had posted a version of this yesterday but thought there was a mistake in it so I deleted it in case you think you are getting dejavu :p )

Notice we quit playing team defense effectively after the all star break. Double the 5v5 goals against once we strayed away from being the best defensive team in the league.

 

[Jack7222]

You're right man, everyone else is the problem.

Closed-minded people are everywhere in this guy's world.

 

[WolfHouse]

I'll help you.
Top 7 teams
1. NY Rangers !-0-1
2. Canucks 1-1
3. Panthers 2-0
4. Avs 2-0
5. Canes 2-0
6. Stars 0-2
7. Bruins 1-1
8. Jets record vs top 7 team is 9-4-1
Remember HF wanted the Jets to be rebuild .. they signed Hellebuyck and Scheifele ... Jets are a wild card team.
Instead Jets are top 8 and people complaining because they want a player on a top line and Jets are losing some games.
Newsflash ... even with this losing streak the Jets have the most regular wins in the NHL with 39.

Sorry I acknowledge I was not clear... against our actual playoff opponents

It's not .500

 

[Flair Hay]

I think the top 6 will be going through a fast and furious blender once Vilardi is back - and hopefully they find combo's that they can take into the PO's -
I think our top 6, when healthy, is good enough to create 2 lines that can score - and hopefully everyone is happy - but they won't be.
And with our top 6 winger strength, it shouldn't matter who lines up with who - at least on paper - thus the need for the blender, again.

On paper is basically where this discussion comes from. Maybe it shouldn't matter who plays with who. But looking at the results over time... the data is painting a very strong picture to say it does matter who plays with who.