When to rebuild?

[Yammer]

Nucks fan coming in peace.

A number of comparisons are occasionally made between the Flames and the Canucks, specifically on whether the Flames are an example of a team waiting too long to rebuild.

I don't watch the Flames all that closely so I was wondering what you thought on this topic.

The Flames were in the Finals in 2004, and made the playoffs until 2009. The last few years, I have heard that the Flames should be rebuilding and whatever, which started to happen in earnest in 2013.

Here in Van, the Nucks are two years from a Finals appearance and are still a playoff team, but a first round exiting team that does not look particularly fast or dangerous.

What are the signs that a teardown is necessary?

Click to read more...

 

[InfinityIggy]

Nucks fan coming in peace.

A number of comparisons are occasionally made between the Flames and the Canucks, specifically on whether the Flames are an example of a team waiting too long to rebuild.

I don't watch the Flames all that closely so I was wondering what you thought on this topic.

The Flames were in the Finals in 2004, and made the playoffs until 2009. The last few years, I have heard that the Flames should be rebuilding and whatever, which started to happen in earnest in 2013.

Here in Van, the Nucks are two years from a Finals appearance and are still a playoff team, but a first round exiting team that does not look particularly fast or dangerous.

What are the signs that a teardown is necessary?

Insanity.

Doing the same thing over and over again and getting the same results. The Flames continued trying to improve the team after they had stopped making the playoffs and consistently played for 9, 10th. This is when the rebuild should have started.

So, the biggest sign is if the Canucks miss the playoffs next year. If they do, they should retool and ship out the Sedins for the future.

If they make the playoffs as a low seed and have another first round exit I would also say the same thing. The Canucks aren't in that position yet. They are still a team that can win division titles. Its not time to tear down yet.

 

[BurnEmUp]

The Nucks core is getting older, especially the main cogs of the core in the Sedins, and much like the Flames a few seasons ago they don't seem to have much (if any) elite young prospects in the pipeline.

However, and it pains me to say this, I don't think the Canucks are in nearly as bad as shape as the Flames were a few years ago when we should have torn it down.

1. The Flames were never an elite team like the Canucks were the past few years. Our peak was a division title in 2006, but we were the worst of the three division winners. On the flip side, the Canucks were a much better team at their peak than Calgary, winning multiple division titles and two Presidents trophies.

2. The Canucks do still have some key pieces in the right age range to either build around, or flip for other young rebuilding pieces. Kesler, Edler and Schneider, off the top of my head fit that criteria. The Flames had Phaneuf, and Sutter completely blew that trade which was a crushing blow to our chances of turning things around. We also had Cammalleri who was 26, and coming off a 39 goal season but Sutter elected to let him walk via UFA in order to sign Bouwmeester. That would have been OK, as Bouwmeetser was also of a good age at the time, but the signing ended up being a disaster because Bouwmeester was utilized improperly by our new coach (Brent Sutter), who was too set in his ways to adapt to players strengths/weaknesses and kept trying to stuff square pegs into round holes.

Those are the main differences I see between the Flames situation a few years ago, and the Canucks situation now. I will say though, that the cap dropping next year is happening at a real bad time for Vancouver, but at least they have a couple of compliance buy outs to help that situation out.

If I were a Canuck fan, I would still be quite worried though, as IMO major changes are needed with that team and I'm not really sure Gillis is the guy to successfully execute those changes. He inherited the core of that team, and although he did some decent tinkering with the depth of the roster, he has made some pretty large gaffs when it has come to making bigger changes to the roster. For instance:

1. The Ballard trade (Grabner + a 1st (Howden)
2. The Booth acquisition
3. The still pending Luongo trade

He did make a real nice trade to nab Ehrhoff, but other than that it's been pretty bad.

So in conclusion, is it time to tear it down completely? No, I don't think so.

Are some big changes needed though? Yes I believe some sizable changes are indeed needed. It's crucial however that the Canucks avoid making big mistakes while executing those changes or things will go south really quickly.

 

[Turrican*]

Oiler fan here.

Don't hire Tambellini to replace Gillis.
Unless you really want McDavid, he is good at getting those 1st overalls and nothing else.

Bye guys!

 

[Noori]

It's not time yet. The 'Nucks are still a top-10 regular season team with a lot of depth and talent. Considering there isn't a lot in their prospect pool, it wouldn't be a good idea to rebuild right now.

For now the moves the Canucks need to make:

The first thing is an attitude shift. I'm not sure where that comes from but it needs to be changed. The Canucks are an unbelievably arrogant organization and the finger always seems to be pointed everywhere except themselves. Always with the blaming of the referees, or something the other team did, blah, blah, blah. All it does is create a lack of accountability amongst the players.

That Arrogance shows up again with the unwillingness to trade Luongo. You signed him to a ****** deal; accept that the return will be ****** and stop committing so much money to goalies.

They also made a mistake by trading Hodgson for Kassian and totally rung Hodgson in the media. Hodgson meanwhile, was always courteous with the media. Kassian is an inconsistent goofball whereas Hodgson is now a bonafide top-6 player.

Vigneault and Gillis need to go before they do more damage. Remember Sutter when he got desperate? If they had kept that core but made different moves their is a chance they could have made the playoffs, but there would be a certainty they would be a better team going forward (Trading Phaneuf for good young players, not trading for Kotalik, etc).

Vigneault and Gillis have to go. The players still probably have two more solid attempts at the cup. It's not time to tear it down yet. As bad as it sucks to get swept in the first round, rebuilding sucks far worse.

 

[Anglesmith]

The Sharks have managed to constantly keep retooling around the veteran presence of Thornton and Marleau. They've always been looking to sell off their secondary players at peak value, and thus have found success consistently injecting youth into their roster, and even now, when they're looking to make a really strong run, their future looks quite stable.

So I don't envision the Canucks needing to tear down completely ever, really. I think that their superstar players in the Sedins and Kesler have the ability to carry the team to the playoffs regardless of their supporting cast, and if the Canucks are concerned about their future, they should look at the Sharks' model: sell off players like Bieksa, one of the goalies (obviously), Hansen, etc., for a return of prospects and picks, and fill the empty roster spots with kids hungry to make an impression.

The reason why this didn't really work for the Flames is because their core consisted of exactly one superstar skater (Iginla), and alone, he was not capable of carrying the team to the playoffs once he passed his prime.

 

[Calculon]

There's no deadline to rebuild, but if the Canucks wanted to make one as short as possible, the time to do it would over the next year, utilizing this off season and draft to make significant changes, while recognizing they might take a step back in the 13-14 season but could be ready to make by the season after.

The Sedins are entering the final year of their contracts and are no longer the Art Ross or Hart winners they were a few years ago. Kesler, while the heart of the roster, is wholly unreliable given his injury history. Their defence is solid, but lacks a true number one; Edler doesn't appear to be taking that next step but has seemingly regressed with regards to his defensive ability.

Moreover, the roster simply isn't built to go deep into the playoffs anymore now that Kesler is injured more oft than not, the Sedins are no longer the threat they were, and the depth isn't there - Booth has been a failure while Higgins and Kassian don't bring enough offense consistently. And with the new division format, the Canucks can no longer rely on feasting on the leagues worst division to bolster their record. Realistically, they're not going to be competing for division titles in the near future.

But changes have to be made with management and coaching now regardless if they rebuild or retool. Vigneault's wore out his shelf life and needs to go; a new voice and perspective in the locker room might get more out of the current core.

Gillis also has to be removed. He's done some big things for that franchise in a pretty short time frame but his mistakes and as mentioned above, arrogance, are catching up to him. His drafting is questionable, if not almost Sutter-esque bad. The best prospect he drafted he traded to the Sabres for a long term project. A very peculiar move for a contending team and it's set them back in the short term. His next best draft pick in Schroeder doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a regular top-six player.

He's tied up a lot of cap in Ballard and Booth, neither of whom have managed to make an impact on the team and have instead hindered his ability to add much needed offense. But the biggest waste has to be in keeping a 5.3M backup through the season. Frankly, the way in which Gillis has handled the Luongo situation is reason enough to fire him. The time to move him was last summer, but because Gillis wouldn't accept market realities but instead demanded out of this world returns, the Nucks are now looking at making a trade where they have either retain salary or take back significant salary in return, or even just buying out the contract.

The Canucks at the moment are in a pretty bad spot. They have virtually no cap space and will need to utilize amnesty buyouts just to get to under the max. But even if they free up some cap space, the free agent market is poor, and they can't realistically expect to find much help there. Finally, they're very resource poor in terms of prospects and picks and can't hope to find much salvation through trades. If they keeping gunning for it without making significant changes to the core, they can only expecting diminishing returns in the upcoming seasons.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Nucks fan coming in peace.

A number of comparisons are occasionally made between the Flames and the Canucks, specifically on whether the Flames are an example of a team waiting too long to rebuild.

I don't watch the Flames all that closely so I was wondering what you thought on this topic.

The Flames were in the Finals in 2004, and made the playoffs until 2009. The last few years, I have heard that the Flames should be rebuilding and whatever, which started to happen in earnest in 2013.

Here in Van, the Nucks are two years from a Finals appearance and are still a playoff team, but a first round exiting team that does not look particularly fast or dangerous.

What are the signs that a teardown is necessary?

Now, if possible. If I were a Vancouver fan I'd be hoping that the Sedins, Bieksa, and maybe a couple of other guys get shipped out for picks or prospects. You'd still maintain a reasonably good team with guys like Kesler, Burrows, Edler, and Hamuis, so the transition into the next set of players wouldn't be as painful.

 

[herashak]

you think the sedins would bring in turris and a first from the sens next year at the deadline. the sedins could be on the second line if ottawa is looking for a deep playoff run.

 

[HighLifeMan]

you think the sedins would bring in turris and a first from the sens next year at the deadline. the sedins could be on the second line if ottawa is looking for a deep playoff run.

Absolutely not, and that is not a shot at the Sedins either.

The Senators made it a distinct point to get much younger throughout their lineup after they bottomed out in 2011 (Traded Kovalev, Fisher, Kelly, Ruuttu etc..). After experiencing a large amount of success with a younger roster in place why would they all of the sudden revert back having an ageing core with a closing window to win? It just does not make any sense.

In addition to that the Senators would also be taking on nearly 10M dollars in salary in such a trade which is simply not feasible with today's cap constraints.

Vancouver makes that trade in a second if that is the route they decided to go down.

 

[Lunatik]

Teams do not rebuild until hey have no choice, it's the nature of sport.

Fans that want rebuilds before then will always be disappointed, because it just doesn't happen.

 

[herashak]

Absolutely not, and that is not a shot at the Sedins either.

The Senators made it a distinct point to get much younger throughout their lineup after they bottomed out in 2011 (Traded Kovalev, Fisher, Kelly, Ruuttu etc..). After experiencing a large amount of success with a younger roster in place why would they all of the sudden revert back having an ageing core with a closing window to win? It just does not make any sense.

In addition to that the Senators would also be taking on nearly 10M dollars in salary in such a trade which is simply not feasible with today's cap constraints.

Vancouver makes that trade in a second if that is the route they decided to go down.

the thing is tho they arent bringing the sedins in to be there core for the future. they are taking a run at the cup.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

The Nucks can't trade the Sedins, there a package deal and there no longer elite players (still very good though) and they provide almost zero physical presence. They should not trade Kesler as he is the very player that they need, but he may be their only top asset to bring back a marque return.

Their in a tough spot, they need to draft extremely well and make smart trades and signings. There is no easy solution there.

 

[Mike Jones]

Teams do not rebuild until hey have no choice, it's the nature of sport.

Fans that want rebuilds before then will always be disappointed, because it just doesn't happen.

You're right about teams waiting too long before rebuilding.

From what I've seen the best time to start rebuilding is before you have to. I know that sounds weird but starting a rebuild when the decline begins (Which is where the Canucks seem to be now) allows you to trade players before their value hits rock bottom. And trading players before they lose a lot of their value may actually shorten the rebuild period because the return may provide a lot more high picks, players and prospects needed for a quick turnaround.

One example of this is the Sedin twins. Would the Canucks be better off trading them now or just before, or when it's too late? My hunch is that the return would be better now rather than when the team bottoms out and rival GMs start offering crap packages (Like the ones Uncle Feaster seems to be getting for Flames players - IE: return for Iginla, etc).

 

[Anglesmith]

Teams do not rebuild until hey have no choice, it's the nature of sport.

Fans that want rebuilds before then will always be disappointed, because it just doesn't happen.

Some teams make a conscious effort to sell assets for the future even while they're still a contending team, though. At the trade deadline, the Sharks traded away two key pieces to their team in Clowe and Murray, even while their team is capable of making a run in the playoffs.

That team and their fans should be very proud of their management. That's how you get the most out of your 'window.' You make sure that while the high points aren't exactly Pittsburgh, the lows aren't Edmonton. If you know what I mean.

 

[Lunatik]

Some teams make a conscious effort to sell assets for the future even while they're still a contending team, though. At the trade deadline, the Sharks traded away two key pieces to their team in Clowe and Murray, even while their team is capable of making a run in the playoffs.

That team and their fans should be very proud of their management. That's how you get the most out of your 'window.' You make sure that while the high points aren't exactly Pittsburgh, the lows aren't Edmonton. If you know what I mean.

they traded away 2 pending UFAs, they also acquired Torres. That is not rebuilding, that is a slight re-shuffle.

 

[King In The North]

Clowe was being scratched as well

 

[Anglesmith]

they traded away 2 pending UFAs, they also acquired Torres. That is not rebuilding, that is a slight re-shuffle.

That's kind of my point. It's not rebuilding. But it is setting up their future while not abandoning hopes of present success:

OUT:
Douglas Murray
Ryane Clowe
Michael Handzus
2013 3rd round pick
Conditional 2013 7th round pick

IN:
Scott Hannan
Raffi Torres
2013 2nd round pick
2013 2nd round pick
2013 3rd round pick
2014 2nd round pick
Conditional 2014 2nd round pick (if Clowe resigns)
2013 4th round pick

(I think that's all)

If it's a re-shuffling, it's in a decidedly younger direction.

 

[MarkGio]

I think rebuilding should never be an option unless you've hit rock bottom.

 

[Noori]

Looking at wflames's post.... just wow. Sharks look like bosses in the first round AND they get to restock their relatively barren prospect pool with lots of top-90 draft selections. That is how you manage a hockey team.

 

[Lunatik]

That's kind of my point. It's not rebuilding. But it is setting up their future while not abandoning hopes of present success:

OUT:
Douglas Murray
Ryane Clowe
Michael Handzus
2013 3rd round pick
Conditional 2013 7th round pick

IN:
Scott Hannan
Raffi Torres
2013 2nd round pick
2013 2nd round pick
2013 3rd round pick
2014 2nd round pick
Conditional 2014 2nd round pick (if Clowe resigns)
2013 4th round pick

(I think that's all)

If it's a re-shuffling, it's in a decidedly younger direction.

rebuilding is selling assets because you have hit rock bottom.

Them moved out 1 older defenseman for another. They were able to downgrade because of depth so they gained a couple picks. Clowe was struggling and teams were dumb enough to bid on him and Torres wasn't much of a downgrade. They made some smart trades, but that is certainly not a rebuild.

I think rebuilding should never be an option unless you've hit rock bottom.

and it almost never is. rebuilds happen for 2 reasons. rock bottom product or rock bottom finances

 

[Soundwave]

I think Vancouver is in a different situation as they're still pretty easily a playoff team most likely next year.

I don't know of any franchise that's "blown it up" after winning the division and making the playoffs with ease.

The fact is Rogers Place is sold out every night too with sky high ticket prices and I'm guessing the Aquillini's make a tidy profit every year. So if they're crying .... they're crying all the way to the bank.

The Sedins may not be the types of players that can lift a franchise to a Cup, but the Penguins have had both Crosby and Malkin for like 6 years and have 1 Cup to show for it, so there's no guarantee even if you have the very best talent.

 

[Lunatik]

I think Vancouver is in a different situation as they're still pretty easily a playoff team most likely next year.

I don't know of any franchise that's "blown it up" after winning the division and making the playoffs with ease.

The fact is Rogers Place is sold out every night too with sky high ticket prices and I'm guessing the Aquillini's make a tidy profit every year. So if they're crying .... they're crying all the way to the bank.

The Sedins may not be the types of players that can lift a franchise to a Cup, but the Penguins have had both Crosby and Malkin for like 6 years and have 1 Cup to show for it, so there's no guarantee even if you have the very best talent.

excellent post.

I can see the Canucks trying a Philly style re-tool at the draft by trying to land a top pick and maybe a good young prospect. And IMO if there is character in the room a team can bring on the Sedin's and have them be an asset. I just do not feel like they should be looked upon for leadership, at least not more than they would naturally offer.

 

[Anglesmith]

rebuilding is selling assets because you have hit rock bottom.

Them moved out 1 older defenseman for another. They were able to downgrade because of depth so they gained a couple picks. Clowe was struggling and teams were dumb enough to bid on him and Torres wasn't much of a downgrade. They made some smart trades, but that is certainly not a rebuild.

I don't know why you think that I'm arguing otherwise. I agree. You don't need to rebuild if you can make moves like that consistently, combined with good drafting and development.

From the Canucks' perspective, they could move similar types of players- secondary players who have good value, but aren't game-breakers, in exchange for youth. I think that the Sharks were in a good position to do that this season with the expiring contracts, though. I don't know if the Canucks have expiring contracts any time soon.

 

[TheHudlinator]

That's kind of my point. It's not rebuilding. But it is setting up their future while not abandoning hopes of present success:

OUT:
Douglas Murray
Ryane Clowe
Michael Handzus
2013 3rd round pick
Conditional 2013 7th round pick

IN:
Scott Hannan
Raffi Torres
2013 2nd round pick
2013 2nd round pick
2013 3rd round pick
2014 2nd round pick
Conditional 2014 2nd round pick (if Clowe resigns)
2013 4th round pick

(I think that's all)

If it's a re-shuffling, it's in a decidedly younger direction.

They traded a 3rd line winger and a 6th defenseman for crazy overpayments it isn't rebuilding. Rebuilding is when you move away from an old core and "build" a new one clearly they haven't done that all they did was stock up on picks to fix the worst prospect pool in the nhl.

The problem that we ran into was to much tinkering hoping for a magical cure all to be found. Sutter got desperate and clearly panicked. Much like the Flames the Canucks have made some desperate moves (Hodgson, Grabner trades and re-signing Bieksa over Erhoff) but unlike the Flames they still have some good youngish pieces to retool/rebuild around (Kesler, Edler, Garrison, Hamhuis Schneider). What needs to happen is the Twins will have to take more of a back seat role Luo will have to be moved (obviously) and Ballard will have to be bought out. The Canucks need to build their offense around Kesler.