TSN Radio when does the Leafs window open?

[4thline]

Nothing you can do about the system but work within it.

You can't change the fact that in years 1 and 2 virtually no rookies are able to carry a Cup champion and need the help that likely won't come until those players are elite themselves.

That's why it's even more important to stay on track and keep building organizational depth right now. The ELC's we with with are not Matthews and Marner...it's the ELC's that will surround them coming from the last 2 drafts and the next 2 drafts.

We don't get to play under the same system Chicago and Pittsburgh did when players were signing 12 year deals and trying to angle their way into being a UFA to get that kind of term. We need to do it our way under this system and unfortunately that means 18-24 more months of patience

No one is advocating for year 1, but both year 2 and 3 those rookies will be elite themselves. Whether it be by scooping up 1 of the excess top 4 d Vegas is likely to have on a shorter term deal or going after a big UFA fish on longer term adding a legitimate top 4 d (ideally more of a 2-3 type) absolutely puts in a position to push the limits and surprise people.

Again why not both?

 

[Jack Bauer]

No one is advocating for year 1, but both year 2 and 3 those rookies will be elite themselves. Whether it be by scooping up 1 of the excess top 4 d Vegas is likely to have on a shorter term deal or going after a big UFA fish on longer term adding a legitimate top 4 d (ideally more of a 2-3 type) absolutely puts in a position to push the limits and surprise people.

Again why not both?

Don't see it as being realistic as I don't see management as being willing to make the move necessary to put that kind of team on the ice next season.

Top 4 Vegas D likely wouldn't even fit into our top 6. They're very likely going to ice the worse team on paper in the history of the NHL.

We need a top pairing guy. We have 3 top 4. Ideally one of them becomes a #5 over time and we acquire a top guy and 1 other reliable veteran. I don't think we acquire that over the next 12 months. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Liminality]

Just for fun here's our potential cap hit for 2018-2019.

Hyman(2.75m)-Matthews(3.775m)-Brown(2.75m)
_____-Nylander(5m)-Marner(1.774m)
_____-Kadri(4.5m)-_____
Martin(2.5m)-Gauthier(1.25m)-Soshnikov(1.75m)

A lot of assuming I know. I think Hyman and Brown at 2.75m, Nylander at 5m, Gauthier at 1.25m and Soshnikov at 1.75m for all their RFA contracts is pretty reasonable imo.

26.049m but missing three wingers or two wingers and a center if Nylander stays on the wing.

Rielly(5m)-_____
Gardiner(4.05m)-Zaitsev(4.5m)
Marincin(2.5m)-Carrick(2m)

More assuming with Zaitsev, Carrick and Marincin's RFA contracts

18.05m needing one defender

Andersen(5m)
_____

5m without a backup

Other
Horton (5.3m)
Kessel salary retained(1.2m)

6.5m

Total 2018-2019 cap of 55.599m

If the cap doesn't change in two years we got 17.4m for 3 wingers(or two and a center), 1 defender, 1 backup. That doesn't even include the possible internal upgrades.

The year after in 2019-2020 is where Marner and Matthews ELC's are up. Horton's cap hit is done in 2020-2021.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Don't see it as being realistic as I don't see management as being willing to make the move necessary to put that kind of team on the ice next season.

Top 4 Vegas D likely wouldn't even fit into our top 6. They're very likely going to ice the worse team on paper in the history of the NHL.

We need a top pairing guy. We have 3 top 4. Ideally one of them becomes a #5 over time and we acquire a top guy and 1 other reliable veteran. I don't think we acquire that over the next 12 months. Hope I'm wrong.

You're right, that would be ideal. But even just one more Dman (ideally a top pairing guy) would be huge. That's the one big hole we have, fill that and depending on how the players we have now keep developing, it's quite possible that we're a strong contender as soon as next year.

Now on one hand, I agree with you in that we should be patient, there is no need to rush things. However, when we're just one piece away from being a serious contender, it's really hard to say that's it's incredibly unlikely that we do in fact acquire that one piece during the next 12 months. You never know when the right opportunity might come along be it through free agency or trade.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Just for fun here's our potential cap hit for 2018-2019.

Hyman(2.75m)-Matthews(3.775m)-Brown(2.75m)
_____-Nylander(5m)-Marner(1.774m)
_____-Kadri(4.5m)-_____
Martin(2.5m)-Gauthier(1.25m)-Soshnikov(1.75m)

A lot of assuming I know. I think Hyman and Brown at 2.75m, Nylander at 5m, Gauthier at 1.25m and Soshnikov at 1.75m for all their RFA contracts is pretty reasonable imo.

26.049m but missing three wingers or two wingers and a center if Nylander stays on the wing.

Rielly(5m)-_____
Gardiner(4.05m)-Zaitsev(4.5m)
Marincin(2.5m)-Carrick(2m)

More assuming with Zaitsev, Carrick and Marincin's RFA contracts

18.05m needing one defender

Andersen(5m)
_____

5m without a backup

Other
Horton (5.3m)
Kessel salary retained(1.2m)

6.5m

Total 2018-2019 cap of 55.599m

If the cap doesn't change in two years we got 17.4m for 3 wingers(or two and a center), 1 defender, 1 backup. That doesn't even include the possible internal upgrades.

The year after in 2019-2020 is where Marner and Matthews ELC's are up. Horton's cap hit is done in 2020-2021.

That's good work, thanks!

I've never completely understood all the nuances re. Horton but isn't the general idea that we are able to spend that money as long as he isn't playing - wasn't that the whole point of the trade? If true, than we have all that money to spend as well.

 

[Jack Bauer]

You're right, that would be ideal. But even just one more Dman (ideally a top pairing guy) would be huge. That's the one big hole we have, fill that and depending on how the players we have now keep developing, it's quite possible that we're a strong contender as soon as next year.

Now on one hand, I agree with you in that we should be patient, there is no need to rush things. However, when we're just one piece away from being a serious contender, it's really hard to say that's it's incredibly unlikely that we do in fact acquire that one piece during the next 12 months. You never know when the right opportunity might come along be it through free agency or trade.

Very true.

Are you willing to give up on a Nylander yet? That's why I say we're not likely to do anything in the next 12 months. I don't think we're ready to give up on anyone of that value until that point. I could be wrong. But to get the kind of piece we want, that's the kind of piece we will have to give up. Maybe not him specifically, but something comparable. No reason to even think about it for most teams until after the season before the expansion draft.

An expansion exempt Nylander might be one of the most valuable trade assets in June.

 

[Jack Bauer]

That's good work, thanks!

I've never completely understood all the nuances re. Horton but isn't the general idea that we are able to spend that money as long as he isn't playing - wasn't that the whole point of the trade? If true, than we have all that money to spend as well.

Not exactly.

We need to fit him under the cap to start the season. But then we can LTIR him and spend that cap space on someone else.

The key part is being under the cap on day 1 with Horton as a counted salary against the cap.

 

[Menzinger]

Don't see it as being realistic as I don't see management as being willing to make the move necessary to put that kind of team on the ice next season.

Top 4 Vegas D likely wouldn't even fit into our top 6. They're very likely going to ice the worse team on paper in the history of the NHL.

We need a top pairing guy. We have 3 top 4. Ideally one of them becomes a #5 over time and we acquire a top guy and 1 other reliable veteran. I don't think we acquire that over the next 12 months. Hope I'm wrong.

Actually given the limited amount of protection slots for teams available for D men - Vegas will likely have a surplus of good ones. Ie just loook at teams like the Ducks or the Wild - both essentially guaranteed to lose a young top four guy

They'll easily have a lot better D core than forward one too

 

[4thline]

Top 4 Vegas D likely wouldn't even fit into our top 6. They're very likely going to ice the worse team on paper in the history of the NHL.

We need a top pairing guy. We have 3 top 4. Ideally one of them becomes a #5 over time and we acquire a top guy and 1 other reliable veteran. I don't think we acquire that over the next 12 months. Hope I'm wrong.

Very true.

Are you willing to give up on a Nylander yet? That's why I say we're not likely to do anything in the next 12 months. I don't think we're ready to give up on anyone of that value until that point. I could be wrong. But to get the kind of piece we want, that's the kind of piece we will have to give up. Maybe not him specifically, but something comparable. No reason to even think about it for most teams until after the season before the expansion draft.

An expansion exempt Nylander might be one of the most valuable trade assets in June.

Disagree on a couple points. Firstly I think Vegas is going to surprise you. Unless teams do some serious juggling (which the league has stated will be punished if it's too overt) or a lot use the 8 skater route to protect 4 or more d Vegas is going to come out of the draft with a surplus of 4-5 d.

Quick fly through the expansion tool and came out with

J.Johnson- Ceci
Emelin- Pysyk
De-Haan- Klein
McNabb-Dumba
Davidson






And secondly I don;t think we need a true top pairing guy. An upgrade on Carrick yes but Rielly is still only 22 and Zaitsev in his first year in NA. I think that the right guy could round that out into a very capable top 4 that gets the job done by committee.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Very true.

Are you willing to give up on a Nylander yet? That's why I say we're not likely to do anything in the next 12 months. I don't think we're ready to give up on anyone of that value until that point. I could be wrong. But to get the kind of piece we want, that's the kind of piece we will have to give up. Maybe not him specifically, but something comparable. No reason to even think about it for most teams until after the season before the expansion draft.

An expansion exempt Nylander might be one of the most valuable trade assets in June.

No I'm not willing to give up on Nylander, I would be willing to trade him (or anyone else for that matter) if it improved our team though. That said, players like him don't get traded until it becomes a bit more clear what they're potential ceiling is so I don't see that happening. I would however be willing to trade JVR, Kapanen, prospects picks etc. if the right guy became available. It would have to really be the right guy though. I don't know what the odds of that happening are in the next 12 months, probably not great but you never know.

Not exactly.

We need to fit him under the cap to start the season. But then we can LTIR him and spend that cap space on someone else.

The key part is being under the cap on day 1 with Horton as a counted salary against the cap.

OK thanks, that's what I thought but wasn't 100% sure. That cap space doesn't seem to be as valuable as it would be if we could use it any time but still, it must have a fair bit of value and I'm confident that our management team will find a way to make the most of it.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Actually given the limited amount of protection slots for teams available for D men - Vegas will likely have a surplus of good ones. Ie just loook at teams like the Ducks or the Wild - both essentially guaranteed to lose a young top four guy

They'll easily have a lot better D core than forward one too

If you're the GM of either team why do you let yourself lose a player that you can get an asset for and allow you to protect someone else?

I think you'll be surprised by the amount of movement before the draft and what teams have left to offer them by the time the draft takes place.

 

[Barilko14]

If you're the GM of either team why do you let yourself lose a player that you can get an asset for and allow you to protect someone else?

I think you'll be surprised by the amount of movement before the draft and what teams have left to offer them by the time the draft takes place.

Both teams would have to move out multiple Dmen in order to not lose a good one, effectively hurting their Dcore more than just allowing one to be grabbed by LV.

For example if Minn trades Brodin pre X draft for picks prospects, they will very likely lose Scandella to LV anyways.

There biggest strength of having a great dcore, becomes a weakness going forward.

IMO Vegas will have a decent group of dmen to choose from, there is just no way every Top 4 dman can be protected league wide.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If you're the GM of either team why do you let yourself lose a player that you can get an asset for and allow you to protect someone else?

I think you'll be surprised by the amount of movement before the draft and what teams have left to offer them by the time the draft takes place.

It works both ways though - we may able to acquire a top 4Dman for much less than it would normally cost for that very reason.

 

[Jack Bauer]

It works both ways though - we may able to acquire a top 4Dman for much less than it would normally cost for that very reason.

Yes, but after this season. Those teams are not going to make moves like that until the off-season.

We will be better come October thanks to the flexibility we will have this upcoming off-season, just not sure we will be able to get the big piece we need on the blueline right away. That is what might take a while. Guys like Fowler and Vatanen are good, but I think we will need someone better to really make our D elite.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Both teams would have to move out multiple Dmen in order to not lose a good one, effectively hurting their Dcore more than just allowing one to be grabbed by LV.

For example if Minn trades Brodin pre X draft for picks prospects, they will very likely lose Scandella to LV anyways.

There biggest strength of having a great dcore, becomes a weakness going forward.

IMO Vegas will have a decent group of dmen to choose from, there is just no way every Top 4 dman can be protected league wide.

In some cases Vegas might choose to get some picks out of teams rather then take a top 4 guy.

Going to be a lot of side deals and the result will be an underwhelming team with a few extra draft picks and prospects.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes, but after this season. Those teams are not going to make moves like that until the off-season.

We will be better come October thanks to the flexibility we will have this upcoming off-season, just not sure we will be able to get the big piece we need on the blueline right away. That is what might take a while. Guys like Fowler and Vatanen are good, but I think we will need someone better to really make our D elite.

If it's the off-season that's fine, we're in no rush.

Ideally, like you said, we add 2 Dmen, a top pairing guy and another top 4 guy (maybe someone in our system today is the other top 4 guy) and then our D would be elite. Keep in mind though, that that's not mandatory for us to win the cup. If Andersen continues playing the way he has been and we add even one top 4 guy, upgrade the bottom pair (which shouldn't be hard) that just might be enough considering how good our forwards might be a year from now.

We don't need to be elite at every position. Elite forwards, near elite goaltending and solid D by committee could do the trick.

 

[Barilko14]

In some cases Vegas might choose to get some picks out of teams rather then take a top 4 guy.

Going to be a lot of side deals and the result will be an underwhelming team with a few extra draft picks and prospects.

Protection rules are a lot different then they were last time expansion rolled around. I think their forward core is going to look rough, but still think they'll have a solid Top 6 on the backend.

Minny would have to offer up a heck of a package to make Vegas pass on Brodin for example. He is the exact type of guy Vegas can use, don't think they would to grab a Folin for payment of a mid round pick.

Edit: Addtionally, Vegas has to draft a certain amount of $$, so it's not like they can pass on every decent player that gets exposed, and bad contracts are useless to them at X draft as they will wait till to take advantage of teams with cap problems.

 

[IBeL34f]

Am I one of the only people who is not overly concerned with our D situation?

I see Rielly as at least a good 1B guy, with the potential to still evolved into that 1A guy. He's still ONLY 22 - and history has proven time and time again that D do not fully develop / find their game until around 24.

Gardiner and Zaitsev are both quality 2nd pairing, top 4 guys, and between them, I'm confident that we have at least 3 core pieces to work with for the long haul.

We need to upgrade Hunlack, and if possible, Carrick (I've given up on Frankie) - but otherwise Marincin is one of those very useful bottom pairing guys who can step into the top 4 when needed.

As far as filling out the group - I'm comfortable waiting for the development of kids like Neilsen, Dermott, Greenway, and Valiev. I'm sure we'll add to that stable this June.

Defensively - I believe that a solid group and a good system is what you need. I believe we'll have that over the next couple of years, but are potentially good enough offensively to do some damage before we get there.

Offensively, we're in pretty good shape, as all of Rielly, Zaitsev, and Gardiner can produce when the leash is off or given sufficient opportunity.

Everyone is calling for a top pairing, young D to round out the group - and while I'd love one thank you - just not at the expense of our depth or a guy like Nylander. I think our smart management will be able to augment our group and upgrade Hunlack to find great success without selling the farm, as sometimes a stabilizing presence can be far more effective than shooting for the moon.

We're not (most likely) winning the cup this year. Our D is very young, and will be much better naturally a year from now, and even better the year after that. We'll be fine, and it'll happen naturally as part of the process.

I agree, I think with Andersen in net, a really solid 3/4 of a top-4, and Babcock's systems demanding support from a group of increasingly-aware forwards, we can get by as we are for now. Especially in the Atlantic.

I also believe we're ready to add a guy like Shattenkirk in the off-season (if available), and would love to try and build our team that way, without having to ship out the assets we've worked so hard to build up.

Making the kind of addition that people are talking about here would, in my opinion, put us in the conversation of being one of the elite teams in the League. However, I don't think a team has to be in that class for their window to be considered 'open'.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Protection rules are a lot different then they were last time expansion rolled around. I think their forward core is going to look rough, but still think they'll have a solid Top 6 on the backend.

Minny would have to offer up a heck of a package to make Vegas pass on Brodin for example. He is the exact type of guy Vegas can use, don't think they would to grab a Folin for payment of a mid round pick.

Rules are different but the teams mindset as an expansion team won't be that radically different. They're still going to be after picks and kids.

A couple teams might lose decent players. For the most part nobody is really going to miss what they lose. But they might miss some of what they trade to make that a reality.

 

[Jack Bauer]

I agree, I think with Andersen in net, a really solid 3/4 of a top-4, and Babcock's systems demanding support from a group of increasingly-aware forwards, we can get by as we are for now. Especially in the Atlantic.

I also believe we're ready to add a guy like Shattenkirk in the off-season (if available), and would love to try and build our team that way, without having to ship out the assets we've worked so hard to build up.

Making the kind of addition that people are talking about here would, in my opinion, put us in the conversation of being one of the elite teams in the League. However, I don't think a team has to be in that class for their window to be considered 'open'.

Who has an open window if it's not elite teams?

In terms of the assets it's use or lose that value over time. We don't have room for 15 forwards even if we end up with 15 NHL caliber forwards so it's move 3 for other assets or over time lose those assets for nothing.

 

[Barilko14]

Rules are different but the teams mindset as an expansion team won't be that radically different. They're still going to be after picks and kids.

A couple teams might lose decent players. For the most part nobody is really going to miss what they lose. But they might miss some of what they trade to make that a reality.

Vegas would be way further ahead if they avoid side deals and loaded up a Dmen at the X draft.

Dmen are the top trade currency right now.

Not sure why Vegas would take the we'll take a 4th not to pick Brodin path just because it's happened that way in the past. Doubt they want to be garbage for 5+ years.

 

[4thline]

Rules are different but the teams mindset as an expansion team won't be that radically different. They're still going to be after picks and kids.

A couple teams might lose decent players. For the most part nobody is really going to miss what they lose. But they might miss some of what they trade to make that a reality.

Don't be so sure. There's been a lot of public emphasis on this being a better team out of the gate. Have to believe that there's been not so public discussion about squandering these advantages to ice a sub nhl team.

And even the objective is picks and kids they'll likely come out ahead picking the best possible players and dealing the surplus in the off-season at par or better instead of taking scraps with midround picks attached.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This is absolutely ridiculous. Did you watch either of the games that he played in?? First star of both games. Should have gotten **** kicked by the Flyers the other night and the only reason the buds didn't was because of the back-up. I can guarantee that Babcock is more than thrilled with the way he's played, it's up to the front to take the game at that point.

it's not though because Enroth was so bad and dug such a hole as the backup that 500 won't cut it now not if we want to be a playoff team

he needs to be better than that and that's not his fault it's Enroth's

 

[IBeL34f]

Who has an open window if it's not elite teams?

In terms of the assets it's use or lose that value over time. We don't have room for 15 forwards even if we end up with 15 NHL caliber forwards so it's move 3 for other assets or over time lose those assets for nothing.

I think any team that looks to perennially make the Playoffs has their window open.

We've been spoiled lately with the fact that Chicago, Pittsburgh and LA have made up 7 of the last 8 Stanley Cup winners, but teams like San Jose, St. Louis, Vancouver, Detroit, New York Rangers, Boston, Washington, Tampa Bay, Anaheim have all had pretty long windows of contention within the past 15 years or so, and while they've certainly had some elite runs between them (including a couple of Cups) I don't see any reason why what we have right now can't be the start of what those teams had/have.

 

[Menzinger]

If you're the GM of either team why do you let yourself lose a player that you can get an asset for and allow you to protect someone else?

I think you'll be surprised by the amount of movement before the draft and what teams have left to offer them by the time the draft takes place.

Pre expansion trades could be an opportunity for the Leafs to get a D man too....

And maybe - but those trades will only happen if the teams who are at risk losing a top 4 guy in expansion get back assets they aont need to protect.

Either way - the Leafs are in a good spot here