Speculation: When do you think the Leafs go "ALL IN"

[Tak7]

The best thing the Leafs could do at this deadline, is not buy - stay the course, be patient, and know what you have.

If the past few weeks have shown anything, it's that there's some really good youthful depth within this organization, and the time to try and flip that depth into big pieces for the roster is not now. You have to know what you have, before you start moving these pieces out.

 

[Menzinger]

I think the Leafs management group is already in full blown “win now” mode (well at least some of thrm - ie Babcock and Lou for sure).

They’ve shown they’re prepared to flip 1st and 2nd round picks for impact players, signed high priced vet free agent in a Marleau and tried to sign other high profile jet in big Joe Thornton.

I’m expecting at this point there’s a Fairly high chance the Leafs flip their 1st and-or prospects for more impact players between now and the draft.

Personally I’d hope they take a more “long/medium term” view of building a contending team once Matthews starts to hit his prime, but I’m not sure if they’ll go down that path.

 

[Razz]

The best thing the Leafs could do at this deadline, is not buy - stay the course, be patient, and know what you have.

If the past few weeks have shown anything, it's that there's some really good youthful depth within this organization, and the time to try and flip that depth into big pieces for the roster is not now. You have to know what you have, before you start moving these pieces out.

I don't think anyone would disagree, buying always comes at the expense of the future, but I think this ultimately is decided by the players on the ice, not Lou necessarily. If the team does come together and goes on an epic run, any competent GM will invest in the team and go for it. That's their job. If the Leafs win most of their games running up to the deadline, I can't see how we're not buyers. Especially considering the easy schedule we have coming up. 23 of 26 remaining games in the East? Opportunity knocks.

 

[Tak7]

I don't think anyone would disagree, buying always comes at the expense of the future, but I think this ultimately is decided by the players on the ice, not Lou necessarily. If the team does come together and goes on an epic run, any competent GM will invest in the team and go for it. That's their job. If the Leafs win most of their games running up to the deadline, I can't see how we're not buyers. Especially considering the easy schedule we have coming up. 23 of 26 remaining games in the East? Opportunity knocks.

What opportunity, though? To run into Boston and Tampa?

This isn't the team's window right now - they are ahead of schedule. A lack of patience is what hurt this team for decades. Can't fall into that same trap now

 

[7even]

Two years from now, when the cap is solidified and Matthews, Nylander, and Marner are in those prime 22-24 years.

 

[Razz]

Well, if I try to look at this through Lou's lens, the team is about to enter the softest part of their schedule all year with 23 of the last 26 games against Eastern teams with 4 more home games than away and 60% of those games against the Atlantic. On top of that, they are on a run and they were successful in holding through the tough part of the schedule in Nov-Dec.

Also, we have to keep in mind a trade is going to occur in the next 24-48 hours due to the roster crunch. The Leafs can send some combination of Leivo/Soshnikov/Carrick/Martin/2nd rounder to a team for an upgrade somewhere.

So, the Leafs are solidly in the playoffs with an easy schedule and are on a run. They have made their case to Lou that they've earned a shot. I don't think Lou is going to invest in a huge asset, but at this point probably he will upgrade somewhere. Whether we agree or not, that's the situation.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I think the 2020~21 season is the year they will be "all in"

 

[slozo]

My answer is . . . never. Not "ALL IN" in the traditional sense that I think you are using the term.

This "process" is termed as a continual process for a reason - Shanahan wants this to be a continual, self perpetuating contending team, one that never has to go "all in" which in essence indicates a short term window of sorts. All in generally indicates sacrificing the future, for the present - and it indicates that at some point past that window, a rebuild of sorts would have to take place.

Shanahan doesn't want that, hasn't planned for that need, and has consistently shown that he's putting his money where his mouth is. His stated philosophy has been echoed over and over again by Lou, by Babcock, by everyone . . . it's all a process.

In a year or two, when possibly the Leafs are a top contender - I don't expect that process to be shelved for an "all in" play. I expect little nips and tucks continually . . . maybe a hockey trade here or there . . . but never an "all in" move.

They are building a team to last, and one that continually regenerate.

 

[al secord]

I don't think they need to go "all in." Keep developing our young players, who make up a pretty darn good core, and a few tweaks here and there should suffice.

 

[thewave]

Two years from now, when the cap is solidified and Matthews, Nylander, and Marner are in those prime 22-24 years.

We have a double window but you have to juggle to make the next 2 years work. Basically you need to trade those UFAs we have now for say a player of equal ability to JVR signed for 2 or so years. ADD: If we don't trade out some UFA then next year will likely not be at all a contending year, it will actually be a worse year unless we look to UFA.

Basically put...

Sell: JVR Bozak Komarov Martin Soshnikov Leivo Moore Carric Polak (Whatever you can out of this pool)

Buy: Someone like Domi, Skinner with whatever you get back from the above. Then see what you can accommodate for a D.

It's the only way to shuffle for contending now and in the future. That or some huge UFA signing but that risks Cap issues in 2-3 years.

 

[Mickey Marner]

You don't go all-in with FA's. You keep your picks and keep a constant stream of cost-effective youth that you then trade for more picks when they price themselves out of your budget.

 

[thewave]

You don't go all-in with FA's. You keep your picks and keep a constant stream of cost-effective youth that you then trade for more picks when they price themselves out of your budget.

Yes this is the logical approach. We are just waiting to see how logical Lou is pretty much at this point. Personally I think Lou tried to ask for too much for JVR and being stubborn he refused. Now we have a log jam of LW players on the market which means Values will be down. Bozak should fetch well though and the same with someone like Komarov probably.

 

[-DeMo-]

with us probably signing Matthews to an 8 year deal this summer that would give us probably a minimum of 10 years to contend including this year, why would you go "All In" in year 1? imo you do that when your window is about 2-3 years from closing. I'm not saying you cant make small tweaks at the deadline for cheaper trades but trading first and 2nd round picks aswell as our top prospects should be off the table as of now and probably the next couple of years still.

 

[Macallan18]

Next year

 

[7even]

We have a double window but you have to juggle to make the next 2 years work. Basically you need to trade those UFAs we have now for say a player of equal ability to JVR signed for 2 or so years. ADD: If we don't trade out some UFA then next year will likely not be at all a contending year, it will actually be a worse year unless we look to UFA.

Basically put...

Sell: JVR Bozak Komarov Martin Soshnikov Leivo Moore Carric Polak (Whatever you can out of this pool)

Buy: Someone like Domi, Skinner with whatever you get back from the above. Then see what you can accommodate for a D.

It's the only way to shuffle for contending now and in the future. That or some huge UFA signing but that risks Cap issues in 2-3 years.

I think the playoff experience the team can hopefully get (I'm hoping 2nd round this year) will be worth more than selling off JvR and Bozak (aka 2/3rds of a good scoring line) at the deadline. This denies you the return on what those two can bring in, but I think the Leafs will take that bet and gamble on in-house talent replacing a large portion of that scoring with Kapenen, Johnsson, Leivo all looking NHL ready. This also keeps the cap low and gives us substantial wiggle room to negotiate the Big 3's extensions, especially with Komarov likely moving on as well. Gives us more time to evaluate and the flexibility to address the defence as well.

 

[thewave]

I think the playoff experience the team can hopefully get (I'm hoping 2nd round this year) will be worth more than selling off JvR and Bozak (aka 2/3rds of a good scoring line) at the deadline. This denies you the return on what those two can bring in, but I think the Leafs will take that bet and gamble on in-house talent replacing a large portion of that scoring with Kapenen, Johnsson, Leivo all looking NHL ready. This also keeps the cap low and gives us substantial wiggle room to negotiate the Big 3's extensions, especially with Komarov likely moving on as well. Gives us more time to evaluate and the flexibility to address the defence as well.

Again the risk is... Does taking a step back next year hurt more than a possible step back this year? Either way this year we have the security of making the PO. Next year it's harder to say and we don't know if Boston will be even stronger or TB for that matter.

I really think trading out JVR Bozak is the pragmatic approach. That is, if we deal to get a couple equal or better players in return. Ideally better.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Things look pretty damn good for this year. I'd just look internally for upgrades unless a can't miss player becomes available for cheap

 

[Razz]

Things look pretty damn good for this year. I'd just look internally for upgrades unless a can't miss player becomes available for cheap

A good controllable asset to replace Moore as the #4C seems to be the most logical move to make here. We can drop 1 or 2 forwards and a 2nd rounder and not greatly impact the future. That extra 2nd is going to come in handy.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Again the risk is... Does taking a step back next year hurt more than a possible step back this year? Either way this year we have the security of making the PO. Next year it's harder to say and we don't know if Boston will be even stronger or TB for that matter.

I really think trading out JVR Bozak is the pragmatic approach. That is, if we deal to get a couple equal or better players in return. Ideally better.

I don't see this team taking a step back next year, because I think they can replace Komarov with Kapenan who I think is actually an upgrade, at least offensively. and I think we can find a UFA replacement for Bozak

JVR will be tough to replace, but this team does have a strong prospect pool so if need be a trade can be made for a scoring winger, although I do wish they could find a way to keep JVR.

 

[7even]

Again the risk is... Does taking a step back next year hurt more than a possible step back this year? Either way this year we have the security of making the PO. Next year it's harder to say and we don't know if Boston will be even stronger or TB for that matter.

I really think trading out JVR Bozak is the pragmatic approach. That is, if we deal to get a couple equal or better players in return. Ideally better.

I see where you're coming from and think it just comes down to your philosophy. We're almost guaranteed to make the playoffs this year (read: 99%) and once you're in anything can happen, so I definitely see where you can get away with recouping longer term assets for JvR and/or Bozak without it really having a determinant role on how the season ends.

I'm just skeptical of what that does to the room and team psyche. I feel like our team attitude has been so crappy for so long now what we have a more focused "winning culture" I'm hesitant to send that message. The team has been pointed sharply at winning since the Big 3 came up and I want them laser focused on that.

 

[Razz]

We have a double window but you have to juggle to make the next 2 years work. Basically you need to trade those UFAs we have now for say a player of equal ability to JVR signed for 2 or so years. ADD: If we don't trade out some UFA then next year will likely not be at all a contending year, it will actually be a worse year unless we look to UFA.

Basically put...

Sell: JVR Bozak Komarov Martin Soshnikov Leivo Moore Carric Polak (Whatever you can out of this pool)

Buy: Someone like Domi, Skinner with whatever you get back from the above. Then see what you can accommodate for a D.

It's the only way to shuffle for contending now and in the future. That or some huge UFA signing but that risks Cap issues in 2-3 years.

I'm right there with you, moving those guys is the best long term move however, I do not believe that will happen anymore. If they were limping into the deadline and playoffs, yes absolutely but now? I think they will keep the team intact and see how far they can go. This recent run of 6 wins in 7 and a soft schedule to close out the year convinces me that they are keeping the crew together.

 

[7even]

I think the Leafs management group is already in full blown “win now” mode (well at least some of thrm - ie Babcock and Lou for sure).

They’ve shown they’re prepared to flip 1st and 2nd round picks for impact players, signed high priced vet free agent in a Marleau and tried to sign other high profile jet in big Joe Thornton.

I’m expecting at this point there’s a Fairly high chance the Leafs flip their 1st and-or prospects for more impact players between now and the draft.

Personally I’d hope they take a more “long/medium term” view of building a contending team once Matthews starts to hit his prime, but I’m not sure if they’ll go down that path.

I think we have to look at their moves with more nuance. They moved out a 1st and a 2nd for Andersen, which wasn't so much mortgaging the future as obtaining it. They traded a 2nd to land Boyle, but last year's squad really came into their own down the stretch to make the playoffs when people were projecting them to be a lottery team. I think bringing in Boyle sent a non-trivial message to the room and it likely helped having a guy who's been a relatively important piece on a lot of successful teams around a team that had more rookies than any competitive team in recent memory. Worth the second? Up for debate but I like the philosophy behind it. The Marleau signing was a splurge but a manageable one. Only other high pick I can remember them moving was the 24th in 2015 but that was just converting one pick into several.

I think management's attitude is compete now more than win now, and I think there's a distinction there.

 

[ITM]

The debate as to weather or not the Leafs are a cup contender has been going on all season, I have been on the side that they are and have felt that they see themselves as being close to that status as well, becausw if they didn't I don't think they would have signed Marleau, nor do I think they would have went after Thornton and Condon, to me those are things you try to do when you think you can win. Others do not believe the Leafs are a true contender yet. But even if you don't think the team is a cup contender yet, you have to admit that they are getting really really close. The team has a trio of young stars up front all 21 or younger, Morgan Rielly at 23 is playing like a #1 D man, Freddie is a borderline elite goalie and the depth up front can compete with any team in this league and all while keeping a relatively strong prospect pool.

I think the question needs to be asked, at what point do you think the Leafs go all in? I don't think it will be this year but come the summer time I think you might see them do it. The team needs a d man and come the summer time the market filled with D men, guys like Ryan Mcdonagh if he doesn't move this year, OEL, Erik Karlsson, possibly Drew doughty if the kings miss the playoffs because he has been very open about his respect for Babacock and possibly wanting to test UFA, Johh Carlson, Mike Green, possibly Tyson Barrie, the market could be flooded with quality d men.

Up front you have guys like John Tavares, who Leaf fans will say they don't need, but lets be honest they will be in on him, because all teams will be in on him because if you can get John Tavares you do it if there is ANY chance of having a 1-2 center combo of Matthews and Tavares down the middle you explore it because not doing so would be stupid. You also have Joe Thornton who Toronto went after last summer and I believe they will go after again to replace Bozak. You have Statsny who could be another Bozak replacement, and you have Backlund.

I do not believe Nylander will be a center next year, I do not know who it will be but I do think they will replace Bozak via trade or UFA. At wing your only Key loss is JVR, Komarov you can replace with Kapenan, who actually might be an upgrade.

Anyway I am getting off topic the point is that while I don't think the Leafs go all in this year, I don't think we are far from the point where they do, I think it is possible we reach that point this coming summer.

What do you think when do you see Toronto doing what the Jays did in 2015 and going all in? that day is coming, we all know it and I think it is coming fast.

From the top (highlighted)...

The recent poll asking if Toronto was a legitimate contender was a good one because it predicated what it means to be a contender in the context of other contenders. I'm on record saying that we're not legitimate contenders however competitive the club certainly will be having made the playoffs. It's a different question that asks, how does the club see itself in proximity to other teams. And the answer every organization should give (and we would be no different) is, that once in the playoffs, anything can happen and that the mindset and motivation of every club making the playoffs is to go as far as possible and control the things they can control, mindful that an undesirable outcome is sometimes left out of their control. But I don't think signing Marleau (and going after others) is only a move based on the club believing that they are legitimate contenders this early in our rebuild.

I think the primary reason they signed Marleau was firstly to continue cultivating an environment of competition within the organization. If you look at clubs like Boston or Pittsburgh, or even to a lesser degree, The San Jose Sharks, you see a built-in shelter of veteran leadership that can lead it's younger players through the necessary education that only experience can provide. With all due respect to Bozak and JVR and Komarov, there's only so much they can provide in their dearth of experience and expertise. Moreover, increased depth increases competition. Our past has yielded an environment of entitlement, which typically arises from a make-do need that pushes prospects into the NHL sooner than their ability can truly convey in. To a lesser extent, the likes of Polak, Hainsey and Zaitsev (whose play merited his extension) are key pieces that provide time for necessary development for players like Travis Dermott...and the effect of that depth coupled with development speaks for itself.

Now that ability within an organization, to develop it's own talent and have said talent truly impact playoffs success isn't so much a green light to signal, now is the moment to go all in! But rather, it's an indicator that the club's foundational (previous) steps to build an environment of competitive development and the decision to do so, was in fact that moment when the organization committed to the necessary, plodding process it typically takes legitimate contenders to become a legitimate contender. It's not overly sensational in terms of our experience, but that's the "all-in" moment. Not the signing of a free agent as though a magic wand was suddenly found. It's the pouring of the foundation that defines the "all-in" moment, not the new deck.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

I think we have to look at their moves with more nuance. They moved out a 1st and a 2nd for Andersen, which wasn't so much mortgaging the future as obtaining it. They traded a 2nd to land Boyle, but last year's squad really came into their own down the stretch to make the playoffs when people were projecting them to be a lottery team. I think bringing in Boyle sent a non-trivial message to the room and it likely helped having a guy who's been a relatively important piece on a lot of successful teams around a team that had more rookies than any competitive team in recent memory. Worth the second? Up for debate but I like the philosophy behind it. The Marleau signing was a splurge but a manageable one. Only other high pick I can remember them moving was the 24th in 2015 but that was just converting one pick into several.

I think management's attitude is compete now more than win now, and I think there's a distinction there.

This is a pretty solid assessment.

 

[Northernguy10]

I'm not sure what "all-in" means. If it means trading one or more of our core then I'm not in favour of that. If it means trading first round draft picks I'm not in favour of that either. We've been there, done that. We don't have the organizational depth to do that anyway.I want a long term 'sustainable' team that can compete year after year. How long that would be possible would be dependent on whether or not our core can get replaced internally as they get older. Luckily we won't have to worry about that for close to a decade. The salary cap will determine how the team continues to develop and I believe you'll see less and less big trades as the league continues to get younger. I don't even like trading second round picks til we get to that point but I can live with the odd one to get a decent depth player for a playoff run. In short, I think the league will continue to get younger, long term contracts will become scarcer and the teams that compete every year will do so from within for the most part.