What's Preventing The Hurricanes From Taking That Next Step?

[Levitate]

Incorrect. It’s what happens when you face great goaltending. The canes are a great analytical team which is expected goals which you don’t get from bad shots alone. The math is on the canes side. For instance teams with more average goaltending like Colorado or Edmonton, they’d be dominating. The goaltending however doesn’t have to listen to math.

There's no award for "should have"

There's no award for having the math on your side.

It's not as simple as "they're great analytically they're only beaten by great goaltending!"

Their gameplan leaves something to be desired. With the right matchups maybe they could win a cup but that can be said for most teams that make the playoffs.

So... everything then?

Like I don't disagree with you that those are all probably part of it but most teams don't have all of those things in spades.

Getting a Makar/Fox/Hughes/etc type #1 Defenseman in this league is almost impossible if you aren't lucky enough to draft them.

I mean not to be a jerk but Carolina did trade for Fox.

Why they did, who knows, since it seemed like he wasn't going to sign with them from the beginning.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Carolina doesn't have elite talent.
This is about as far as a "hard working team" can get.

That said, last night they were clearly "Goalie'd".

 

[WarriorofTime]

There's no award for "should have"

There's no award for having the math on your side.

It's not as simple as "they're great analytically they're only beaten by great goaltending!"

Their gameplan leaves something to be desired. With the right matchups maybe they could win a cup but that can be said for most teams that make the playoffs.

I didn’t say they should have an award. Rangers deserve the award for getting such a great goaltender.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Great teams lose in the playoffs every year.

St Louis and Vegas are two recent teams who won without, let's say, "elite" talent. They both got very very good goaltending.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

simple, lack of a game breaker

 

[CaptTennille]

You HAVE to get inside in the playoffs.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

You HAVE to get inside in the playoffs.
View attachment 868359

Yep, the deeper you go into the playoffs, the more outside shooting dries up.

 

[StreetHawk]

simple, lack of a game breaker

I would agree. Very good all around team. Just lack a little bit in each facet. Or one top level guy in any of them would give them a big boost.
Goaltending is middle of the pack in the teens ranking.
D, rock solid, but lack a big point getter/puck mover. Slavin is a notch below an Alex Petroangelo. If he had that offense, it might be enough.
Forwards, solid group, as Aho is very strong 2 way C. Need Svech or Necas to be a more impactful player. If one of them took their game up a level, that would be huge for Carolina. Like a Sam Reinhart type jump from his Buffalo production to his FLA production.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

In a lot of ways right now, it's just bad luck.


If you look at the series against Florida last year and now this year against the Rangers, they're 0-7 in 1 goal/OT games. That's like flipping a coin 7 times and having it come up heads every time. Just really unlucky.

That being said, they don't move the puck to the middle of the ice nearly enough, and they don't have a true gamebreaking superstar talent on the team which has hurt them against Florida(Who has Barkov and Tkachuk) and now NYR(Who has Fox/Panarin).


Elite team and elite depth, but really terrible luck with some driving factors to make them prone to bad luck essentially.

Great teams lose in the playoffs every year.

St Louis and Vegas are two recent teams who won without, let's say, "elite" talent. They both got very very good goaltending.

Vegas most certainly had elite talent lol

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Great teams lose in the playoffs every year.

St Louis and Vegas are two recent teams who won without, let's say, "elite" talent. They both got very very good goaltending.

Both had Alex Pietrangelo. Say what you want about him, he is/was one of the top d-men in the NHL for years.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

In a lot of ways right now, it's just bad luck.

If you look at the series against Florida last year and now this year against the Rangers, they're 0-7 in 1 goal/OT games. That's like flipping a coin 7 times and having it come up heads every time. Just really unlucky.


Vegas most certainly had elite talent lol

Yeah, what most people don't like to hear is a lot of stuff does come down to luck. That balances out over an 82-game season, but in the playoffs, you gotta be good AND lucky to go the distance.


Re: Vegas. Is PPG production what passes for "elite" nowadays?

Both had Alex Pietrangelo. Say what you want about him, he is/was one of the top d-men in the NHL for years.

He's an awesome player indeed, but people are saying a lack of gamebreaking talent to fill the net is what the Canes lack the most. Pietro is many things, but "gamebreaking offensive talent" certainly isn't the first that comes to mind when we're considering his main contributions to a team.

 

[Bounces R Way]

You lose the goaltending and special teams battle and more often than not you're going to lose the series.

I think they need another top line forward generally. Maybe Guentzel would be him but I dunno I would go bigger.

 

[LokiDog]

They remind me of the Lundqvist era Rangers in some ways. They’re deep and can get contributions up and down the lineup. They have a hard working identity. They have some moderate star power up front but lack the game breaker to get them on the blaer when they most need it.

 

[Osakahaus]

Mentally soft team who can't handle when a team hits them for once. They flop around like fishes once they get hit and cry when someone dares lay a good hit. They talk so much trash yet they can't back it up

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Incorrect. It’s what happens when you face great goaltending. The canes are a great analytical team which is expected goals which you don’t get from bad shots alone. The math is on the canes side. For instance teams with more average goaltending like Colorado or Edmonton, they’d be dominating. The goaltending however doesn’t have to listen to math.

Which demonstrates that analytics will only get you so far. You can't corsi your way to a Cup.

 

[647Hockey]

Plenty of average-at-best goalies have won in recent years.
Niemi
Kumeper
Binnington
Hill
Murray

Avg as a whole career, but during those years or playoff runs they pretty good or better.

I dont think it's too often (if ever) a team has won the past 30 years with a goalie with bad playoffs stats where the team scores 5+ goals a game carrying the team.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Mentally soft team who can't handle when a team hits them for once. They flop around like fishes once they get hit and cry when someone dares lay a good hit. They talk so much trash yet they can't back it up

They’ve been more physical than the rangers

 

[WarriorofTime]

Which demonstrates that analytics will only get you so far. You can't corsi your way to a Cup.

Analytics is more probability based in a very high variance activity, mostly really only 5 on 5, and doesn't really account for goaltending.

It doesn't mean analytics is bad/flawed. It just means it's not gonna pick up everything.

 

[Osakahaus]

They’ve been more physical than the rangers

and yet

the RANGERS have been the better team

 

[Los Capitales]

Ese vato Orlov es caka. He no good operator.

 

[Riseonfire]

All their diving doesn't help.

 

[MS]

You HAVE to get inside in the playoffs.
View attachment 868359

This is basically it in a nutshell.

Controlling possession and taking all kinds of shots from everywhere will win you a bunch of games in the regular season when you're facing bad teams and bad goaltending.

However, it's inevitable in the playoffs that you're going to run up against excellent teams with great goaltending and if you can't penetrate for high-danger chances and don't have gamebreaking talent ... you are going to struggle to score goals.

Low percentage shots aren't going to go in on Shesterkin. Didn't go in on a red-hot Bobrovsky either in 2023 when they scored 6 goals in 4 games. Or in 2022 against Shesterkin when they scored 13 goals in 7 games. Or against Vasilevskiy in 2021 when they scored 9 goals in 5 games.

It's the same story every year. What they do works until they actually have to beat an elite goalie 4 times in the playoffs, and at that point everything falls apart.

 

[newsportsfan123]

and yet

the RANGERS have been the better team

Okay? That wasn’t your point though.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Analytics is more probability based in a very high variance activity, mostly really only 5 on 5, and doesn't really account for goaltending.

It doesn't mean analytics is bad/flawed. It just means it's not gonna pick up everything.

I didn't say it was bad, but there are so many variables in hockey that you can't control for proper analysis. So it only takes you so far. And its limitations are more than just goaltending.

 

[Goose]

The more hockey I watch, the more I think puck luck is the #1 determiner in who wins the cup, as there are so many relatively even matchups that come down to who gets the bounce.

I think if you replay these past three NYR/CAR games 100 times there's as many times when Carolina's up 3-0 as there is New York. They've all been one goal games, with two overtime games, where absolutely anything can happen.

Money Puck's Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter (which I think is in an interesting calculation) had Carolina as the better team for Games 1 and 3 for what that's worth.