What's Preventing The Hurricanes From Taking That Next Step?

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Last 3 games:


Shesterkin - .957 (OT game)
Kochetkov - .880

Shesterkin - .947 (2OT game)
Andersen - .897

Shesterkin - .880
Andersen - .826


Last 4 games vs Florida in 2023:

Bobrovsky - .923
Andersen - .823

Bobrovsky - 1.00
Andersen - .941

Bobrovsky - .974 (OT game)
Raanta - .923

Bobrovsky - 969 (4OT game)
Andersen - .950


Out-goalied in every game.

That's what happens when you fire pucks from everywhere and want quantity over quality.

 

[CaptTennille]

The Carolina Hurricanes: A Play in Four Parts


ACT 1: “The Hurricanes come out like a house on fire and score 1 goal on 20 shots!”

ACT 2: “Despite our possession dominance, it seems our opponent has also scored a goal”

ACT 3: “We have been skating around like lunatics for 40 minutes and seem to be running out of gas”

Act 4: “One of our Dmen made an unforced error and we lost in Overtime”

FIN

 

[WarriorofTime]

That's what happens when you fire pucks from everywhere and want quantity over quality.

Incorrect. It’s what happens when you face great goaltending. The canes are a great analytical team which is expected goals which you don’t get from bad shots alone. The math is on the canes side. For instance teams with more average goaltending like Colorado or Edmonton, they’d be dominating. The goaltending however doesn’t have to listen to math.

 

[T REX]

Coaching and lack of an elite C/F

And goaltending

And lack of a true #1 D

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Coaching and lack of an elite C/F

And goaltending

And lack of a true #1 D

So... everything then?

Like I don't disagree with you that those are all probably part of it but most teams don't have all of those things in spades.

Getting a Makar/Fox/Hughes/etc type #1 Defenseman in this league is almost impossible if you aren't lucky enough to draft them. Same with elite C/F... and goaltending.

Like it's incredibly rare to get those guys in a trade or in free agency. It happens but if it's via trade it's usually because the player forced their way out of town and are only willing to go to a specific destination. Florida is just about the only team that has gone out and spent an insane amount for an elite #1 G and much of that contract early on looked terrible.

So I think the coaching thing is likely due to the following...

1. Rod believes the game should be played a certain way and demands that of his team
2. He doesn't have the elite horses to NOT employ a super hard-nosed forecheck style strategy

I think they could probably loosen up on both of those points but not abandon them all together. You need to have flexibility to change things up and have a plan B or plan C if plan A isn't working. That's what the Canes lack and that is definitely on coaching, regardless of whether or not you have elite talent. You have to be able to adapt to the situation. Canes just do Canes things all the time no matter what. It works in the reg season again weaker competition and over a large sample size but the playoffs aren't that.

 

[NYRKing]

You look at the team on paper and it’s tough to say, honestly.

Maybe a two-way 2C to play with Jarvis/Necas?

There’s also something with the D, despite missing Pesce. Orlov, Burns and Chatfield haven’t really impressed in this series.

 

[bleedgreen]

Why would NHL/NFL be so fundamentally different here?

You asked "how", I told you "how" with relevant example. Your original point that it's not possible to cheap if spend to salary cap doesn't hold up.

This is a thread about what’s holding the canes back from higher levels of success, and you went with “they’re cheap” when they spend to the cap. How does a football team charging people to take food home make the Canes cheap with their hockey team, and how does that keep the Canss from being a better playoff team? Instead of trying to derail the conversion into dogging the Canes just because you don’t like them or the owner and feel like picking at perceived low hanging fruit why not be productive and actually talk about the roster? Because Rod wanting his asst’s signed before he signs is not what’s making us lose to the Rangers, or the Panthers….or the Bruins. There’s so many more clear and direct reasons than that to be seen from watching the games.

Its not because the Asst coaches don’t have nice enough suits and are rebelling.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This is a thread about what’s holding the canes back from higher levels of success, and you went with “they’re cheap”

Really? I said that? Source?

 

[T REX]

So... everything then?

Like I don't disagree with you that those are all probably part of it but most teams don't have all of those things in spades.

Getting a Makar/Fox/Hughes/etc type #1 Defenseman in this league is almost impossible if you aren't lucky enough to draft them. Same with elite C/F... and goaltending.

Like it's incredibly rare to get those guys in a trade or in free agency. It happens but if it's via trade it's usually because the player forced their way out of town and are only willing to go to a specific destination. Florida is just about the only team that has gone out and spent an insane amount for an elite #1 G and much of that contract early on looked terrible.

So I think the coaching thing is likely due to the following...

1. Rod believes the game should be played a certain way and demands that of his team
2. He doesn't have the elite horses to NOT employ a super hard-nosed forecheck style strategy

I think they could probably loosen up on both of those points but not abandon them all together. You need to have flexibility to change things up and have a plan B or plan C if plan A isn't working. That's what the Canes lack and that is definitely on coaching, regardless of whether or not you have elite talent. You have to be able to adapt to the situation. Canes just do Canes things all the time no matter what. It works in the reg season again weaker competition and over a large sample size but the playoffs aren't that.

It seems to me that when the Canes run into teams with most of what I put down, they lose.

I don't think a coaching change will change the lack of GT, a #1 D, an elite C/F.

You just don't have the right pieces to go all the way. JMHO

 

[bleedgreen]

Their year was 2021-2022.

The year they offesheeted Kotkaniemi, they still had Trocheck. That was IMO their best team in recent years.

They should've kept the 1st, 3rd they gave up for KK and get a good rental instead (and maybe try to sign him).

6.1M$ was paid to KK that year so they had space for a very good rental at the deadline.

Imagine using 6.1M$ of cap space + 1st + 3rd and only get Kotkaniemi. Instead they could've got a Giroux, H. Lindholm, Toffoli, Hagel, etc. for a playoff run.

KK move is biting them in the ass and they downgraded their team since then. I also think they should've kept Trocheck.

If you take all the ridiculous crap about why the Canes did this and the arguments between the bases I completely agree with you. This version of the Canes was at its best with Trocheck and Hamilton. They had to let Hamilton go (I get why, though they could’ve signed him for cheaper early in the season), but they didn’t have to with Trocheck. I think the transition to TDA and then Burns put them sideways when they wanted to go forward, and then the move from Tro to KK was a big step back and the overall effect stalled this team from taking that next step. Trocheck would like great with an improving Svech or Jarvis….whichever wing you’d want on there. Canes fans that talk against Tro use his last season with the Canes as their reason why he wasn’t that good. He dropped in pts because they changed up the pp and he became less of a focal point which causes a point drop. He also had inconsistent wingers. He was great the year before.

They are hyper vigilant of their cap space which makes a ton of sense and generally works for them. Their fancy stats showed KK as a good bet as a replacement over paying a guy approaching 30 who was a great fit. It backfired and I do believe it hurt the team. They’ve finally been acknowledging this with giving Drury shots at the 2C and picking up Kuzy. KK might be a great 3C but he’s not going to get that job over Staal.

The 6.1 didn’t matter then and it doesn’t matter now. The overall effect was a fail, but the money spent to make it happen is irrelevant. The Canes tried to pry KK away in trade and MB obviously wanted at least what they would get back from the offer sheet…and presumably the Canes offered less than what they would get for the offer sheet. When MB wouldn’t bite they gave him the offer sheet price.

 

[seafoam]

Investing in Kotkaniemi and letting Trochek walk sure didn't help.

Also, no Pesce is exposing Burns who is really a PP specialist doesn't help.

 

[patnyrnyg]

Incorrect. It’s what happens when you face great goaltending. The canes are a great analytical team which is expected goals which you don’t get from bad shots alone. The math is on the canes side. For instance teams with more average goaltending like Colorado or Edmonton, they’d be dominating. The goaltending however doesn’t have to listen to math.

Great goaltending has not been required to stop 90% of the shots the Canes are getting through.

 

[The don godfather]

Powerplay.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Great goaltending has not been required to stop 90% of the shots the Canes are getting through.

And the other 10 % is the difference between winning and losing.

 

[patnyrnyg]

And the other 10 % is the difference between winning and losing.

That doesnt mean all 10% will go in. We are talking about NHL goalies here.

 

[elmaco]

Goalie play

 

[newsportsfan123]

Draft a generational goalie that’s the only way!!! - HFBoards

 

[LionsHeart]

Style of defense. When they face a better team and miss an assignment they get burned. I actually think the team is constructed really well.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Incorrect. It’s what happens when you face great goaltending. The canes are a great analytical team which is expected goals which you don’t get from bad shots alone. The math is on the canes side. For instance teams with more average goaltending like Colorado or Edmonton, they’d be dominating. The goaltending however doesn’t have to listen to math.

OK, their shots from far out with no one in front is totally not hampering them.

Their scoring slightly better than the capitals, who's main weapon is an aging Ovechkin who looked terrible for most of the year, had a nice hot streak and then looked terrible again.

Carolina loves to fire shots and that's not entirely a bad idea, except a lot of goalies prefer more shots than none.

They're getting their chances, but they're not getting those high end chances.

They're also missing a high end player, but Vegas won with very similar setup just last year.

 

[CTHabsfan]

I mean yes they're down 3-0, but they've lost 2 games in OT and the other one only by a goal.. With a little more luck the serie could be 2-1 Carolina right now and this thread would have never been created. There's a lot of luck involved in NHL playoffs.

The Hurricanes would have defeated the Panthers last season with a little more luck- remember RBA saying they weren't really swept, even though they lost all four games? I'm not saying a team needs a generational goalie to win, but when you don't even have a definite top-20 goalie you'll have problems.

 

[WarriorofTime]

OK, their shots from far out with no one in front is totally not hampering them.

Their scoring slightly better than the capitals, who's main weapon is an aging Ovechkin who looked terrible for most of the year, had a nice hot streak and then looked terrible again.

Carolina loves to fire shots and that's not entirely a bad idea, except a lot of goalies prefer more shots than none.

They're getting their chances, but they're not getting those high end chances.

They're also missing a high end player, but Vegas won with very similar setup just last year.

They were 7th in league in goals scored.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

same as the Leafs, they dont get dirty and fight for playoff goals.

regular season goals are easy, playoff goals take effort and going to the dirty areas of the ice

 

[Turin]

Their system spends too much time outside the slot and their special teams are never dominant.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

They were 7th in league in goals scored.

That's regular season. Toronto was 2nd in goals for. Toronto doesn't want to work for the goals and they're out, they've been eliminated so many times because of that. This high octane offense goes quiet.

Canes prefer to fire shots from far out and anywhere and then react. That's not everytime, but in the playoffs you're firing muffins at a goalie and building their confidence.

Jaroslav Halak got better the more shots he faced and mentioned that himself.

The canes need to hold on for an extra second and try to get things to open up, goalies to move.

 

[PensPlz]

same as the Leafs, they dont get dirty and fight for playoff goals.

regular season goals are easy, playoff goals take effort and going to the dirty areas of the ice

Pretty much. It was the Penguins' problem from 2010-2015, too.

Same thing with the Oilers and McRegularSeason.