What's Preventing The Hurricanes From Taking That Next Step?

[saintunspecified]

Ask Philadelphia Flyers fans the difference between having a Parent, and not.

(I'll see myself out.)

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

A cup winning team doesn't necessarily need top elite scorers (like some posters mentioned in this thread), but it sure helps. Usually a cup winner has some studs that carry the offence, but not always. But a rock solid goalie is I think always mandatory. When was the last time a team won the cup with a crap goalie? LA Kings way back has Kopitar as their best forward and he got maybe 80 pts. STL and Vegas won cups and their best player might be 80 pts too. Carolina is similar where Aho gets around 80.

But I think their goaltending gets a bit shaky. And their style of play which is shoots tons of shots on net and eventually something goes in or there's some good bounces or rebounds that happen dry up as other teams play better or they run into stud goalies who dont let in shitty goals (like Varlamov letting in some doozies off bad bounces).

They are like Capitals of 80s and early 90s. Well balanced team top to bottom. Can demolish regular season teams, but come playoff time you dont get star players stepping up like other teams.

Plenty of average-at-best goalies have won in recent years.
Niemi
Kumeper
Binnington
Hill
Murray

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Poor hygiene probably

 

[AslanRH]

I think they went the right direction bringing in a scorer like Guentzel, but they still seem to lack enough pure scorers.
Their 2way depth and effort is phenomenal though which makes them always rise to the top every year but you need that scoring talent when the games get tighter.

 

[saintunspecified]

Seriously, tons of text, and the answer is 'make a big save'.

The Hurricanes have everything it takes. Scoring 3, 3, and 2 goals even when facing a goaltender playing at the top of his game (Shesterkin) should get that team at least 1 win, and it's gotten them none. But it hasn't, because.

You could see this in the Islanders series. NYI got way too close to regularly despite getting poor goaltending (which of course they could never overcome). The Rangers are better (particularly on special teams), and are getting great goaltending,.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I mean, according to many Canes fans the Rangers were going to get waxed by this team. So I guess the answer is... yes?

I mean it was two OT games that could have gone either way

 

[saintunspecified]

Plenty of average-at-best goalies have won in recent years.
Niemi
Kumeper
Binnington
Hill
Murray

Teams either are so much better than their opponents that they get lucky, they get lucky when their meh goalie gets hot, or their opponents also don't have good enough goalies. But if not having that goalie didn't significantly decrease your chances, the Flyers would have won at least one more cup.

Also Murray wasn't average-at-best before his injuries. He looked like a star.

 

[Bruce Granville]

It's no shame to lose to Rangers. It's not like the series hasn't been close. I'm willing to bet Rangers win the Stanley Cup this year. They have great special teams and the hottest goalie. All the teams from West have more or less suspect goaltending.

If it‘s not the Panthers who will stop them, it for sure is not the Bruins.
And like you mentioned, the goaltending in the West ist mediocre at best.
Avs and Stars can only hope to get average goaltending.
Edmonton cannot expect even that.
And Canucks with Demko might stand a chance, without him only Skinner can help them.

 

[Svechhammer]

Goalie is not the issue

Our single biggest issue every year in the playoffs is scoring. We can't buy a goal, and our depth scoring sucks. Our PP is an absolute train wreck every year in the postseason and even more worryingly the defense just forgets how to play at times leaving opponents wide open chances that very few goalies will stop. And on top of all of this, the team tends to melt down mentally taking some of the dumbest f***ing penalties I've ever seen.

A lot of our issues are on the coaches. I know it's sacrilege to speak I'll of Brindy, but we make the same mistakes every year and we've yet to adjust at all. This is the deepest team we've ever had with legitimate top end talent and they are struggling the same way as they did last year without some of our best players. You can't keep doing the same thing over and over and see it fail without adjusting. Going balls deep in defensive hockey only works if you can score, and the Canes have yet to prove they can.

 

[Fatass]

Plenty of average-at-best goalies have won in recent years.
Niemi
Kumeper
Binnington
Hill
Murray

Yup. Goalie isn’t their issue. It’s lack of elite game breakers. Or even just having one.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

One of the most overrated franchises in the NHL. Aside from Oha, team is full of chokers. I would rather watch paint dry than have to watch them play.

 

[bleedgreen]

No, it's not, you asked how it's possible to still be considered "cheap" if you spend to the salary cap, I have a prime example that everyone agrees is "cheap" and you just dismiss it because it goes against your worldview, all while moving the goalposts.

You compared them to a team in a different league that charges people for taking food home. There is no such comparison to the Canes. They don’t do that. Try harder when trying to spread the agenda.

 

[BHD]

Not saying RBA is a bad coach, but... it does seem like they are at the point of diminishing returns with his system. I would take a step back on the shot chart if it meant more goals.

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

Teams either are so much better than their opponents that they get lucky, they get lucky when their meh goalie gets hot, or their opponents also don't have good enough goalies. But if not having that goalie didn't significantly decrease your chances, the Flyers would have won at least one more cup.

Also Murray wasn't average-at-best before his injuries. He looked like a star.

A lot of it has to do with timing and luck during the playoffs. Like you said, anyone can get lucky or hot. I will concede that Murray was a star in the playoffs and had one good half-season before he fell apart though.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You compared them to a team in a different league that charges people for taking food home. There is no such comparison to the Canes. They don’t do that. Try harder when trying to spread the agenda.

Why would NHL/NFL be so fundamentally different here?

You asked "how", I told you "how" with relevant example. Your original point that it's not possible to cheap if spend to salary cap doesn't hold up.

 

[dalewood12]

Not a dig at Jordan, but is Staal a good captain?

 

[Svechhammer]

You compared them to a team in a different league that charges people for taking food home. There is no such comparison to the Canes. They don’t do that. Try harder when trying to spread the agenda.

Yeah the team and org isn't cheap. They're willing to spend a lot of money and they do it every year.

They're just spending that money on a team that is good for 82 games but sucks when the stakes get ramped up.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Last 3 games:


Shesterkin - .957 (OT game)
Kochetkov - .880

Shesterkin - .947 (2OT game)
Andersen - .897

Shesterkin - .880
Andersen - .826


Last 4 games vs Florida in 2023:

Bobrovsky - .923
Andersen - .823

Bobrovsky - 1.00
Andersen - .941

Bobrovsky - .974 (OT game)
Raanta - .923

Bobrovsky - 969 (4OT game)
Andersen - .950


Out-goalied in every game.

 

[PocketNines]

Plenty of average-at-best goalies have won in recent years.
Niemi
Kumeper
Binnington
Hill
Murray

Binnington's advanced stats this year were Vezina worthy and he is about to take over the Blues all time goaltending wins lead. I get that he has to be talked about as average because he is hated by many and thus begrudged, but he is the best player on the Blues, and if you don't believe me ask Blues fans who the MVP was this year

edit: I would go even further as someone who watched a very Canes-like series of decades having a very good team that always made the playoffs but never won, and also someone who has watched all the Canes playoff games in recent years, to say that it was actually Binnington who dragged the team more than the team dragged him. There is no Cup in 2019 without Binnington no how no way. And his Game 7 was one of the greatest goaltending performances in a pressure situation in the history of the NHL.

 

[HabsQC]

Their year was 2021-2022.

The year they offesheeted Kotkaniemi, they still had Trocheck. That was IMO their best team in recent years.

They should've kept the 1st, 3rd they gave up for KK and get a good rental instead (and maybe try to sign him).

6.1M$ was paid to KK that year so they had space for a very good rental at the deadline.

Imagine using 6.1M$ of cap space + 1st + 3rd and only get Kotkaniemi. Instead they could've got a Giroux, H. Lindholm, Toffoli, Hagel, etc. for a playoff run.

KK move is biting them in the ass and they downgraded their team since then. I also think they should've kept Trocheck.

 

[tfwnogf]

they need someone with the dawg in him, like a tkachuk or a mackinnon or an eichel

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Out-goalied in every game.

Yeah, when the sample-size needed for success in the playoffs is as small as it is, this is the deciding factor.

 

[Prettyisland]

I feel like there isn’t anybody who wants to be THE GUY. I ironically think they maybe need to bring in a jerk that can play

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Last 3 games:


Shesterkin - .957 (OT game)
Kochetkov - .880

Shesterkin - .947 (2OT game)
Andersen - .897

Shesterkin - .880
Andersen - .826


Last 4 games vs Florida in 2023:

Bobrovsky - .923
Andersen - .823

Bobrovsky - 1.00
Andersen - .941

Bobrovsky - .974 (OT game)
Raanta - .923

Bobrovsky - 969 (4OT game)
Andersen - .950


Out-goalied in every game.

This is true... but being outgoalied doesn't mean your goalie played poorly. Obviously those save percentages on a bunch of those games don't look great but you have to actually look at the goals scored and say to yourself 'was this goal on the goalie or the team around them'?

I think that's what general stat watchers don't get about the Canes. Yes, they limit overall shot attempts but they do give up a ton of high danger ones and while it would be nice for your goalie to make outrageous Bobrovsky style SOTY's on those, that's just not reasonable or realistic.

When the other goalies across the ice are putting up SV% of .950+ you're going to have a hard time winning any of those games.

Like take the game last night.... are we going to say Kochetkov was bad when you break down the goals scored?

Goal 1 - SH 2 on 1 where Burns got absolutely dusted in a foot race by Kreider. Mika has great patience and makes a perfect pass to hit Kreider as he is streaking in towards the net and he has a clean redirection with no one to stop him. While you'd love your goalie to stop it, that's just a great play and the Rangers are an excellent team with top offensive talent. They are going to score goals if you give them clean open looks right in front of the net.

Goal 2 - Laser quick shot by Laf... it's from the top of the circles right down the middle. He caught Skjei flat footed trying to turn around from skating forwards to backwards to defend and by then the shot was already gone. It probably caught Pyotr off guard a bit. It's one that I'm sure he'd like to have back as it was stoppable but it's great shot, quick release and good placement on a clean look.

Goal 3 - Kind of similar to goal 1 but it's a bit more scrambly and off of an Orlov miss on the puck in the defensive zone. Trochek grabs it and sends a hard backhand to the net, Panarin is in the perfect spot to tip it (through his legs?) and finds a hole just through Pyotr's arm. It's a bang bang play off of a turnover. Not much to be done on that.

No one is disagreeing that the Canes goaltending hasn't been as good as the opposition, but if you're relying on Andersen/Koch/Raanta/Whoever to be better than guys like Igor and Bob in the playoffs in order to win then you're just not going to win and that's what has happened.

The Canes need to NOT ALLOW these plays to develop because the top end talent of the Rangers/Panthers/whoever are going to get their cookies if you give them enough chances. So you either need to figure out a way of creating more offense and/or shutting down these opportunities. Relying on superhuman goalie performances isn't a game plan especially if you don't have a super human goalie. There are very few of them out there and the teams that have them don't tend to give them up. And also, look at likely vezina winner Helly in Winnipeg this playoffs. He got absolutely torched against Colorado so it's not like it's a guaranteed recipe for winning.

I feel like there isn’t anybody who wants to be THE GUY. I ironically think they maybe need to bring in a jerk that can play

Getting Tkachuk from Calgary instead of him going to the Panthers would have been an absolute game changer. I mean obviously because he's an elite power forward so just in general but he also would have been the exact type of player the Canes need.

 

[clmetsfan]

Because "throw everything at the net and hope for the best" works a lot better in the regular season than it does in the playoffs against a top-tier opponent who knows exactly what you're going to do and doesn't have to worry about your Plan B, because they know you don't have one.