The Jackets are an average, borderline-playoff squad who had a hot streak led by unsustainable power-play numbers and Atkinson heating up. Wennberg excites me as a #1C, and the likes of Saad, Atkinson, Foligno and Jenner are also top-line guys, combined with an above average defense, gives them hope to improve. Especially when Carlsson, PLD make the NHL.
Mediocure team overall (meaning right at/below the playoff line) - average to me would be a team that is usually a playoff team with more than half the teams qualifying each year. They have the ability to have some incredible hot streaks, which is somewhat due to goaltending (when Bob is on he is one of the best) and streaky forwards.
The defense was much better earlier this year but Savard getting hurt and Wereneski wearing down makes them pretty average right now.
This is close to how I feel.
I try my hardest, during the good and the bad, to maintain an even keel. Not to be too excited or down. Last year I was a fool and thought we would rebound and still make the playoffs after a 0-5-0 start, and I got burned hard. I'm not making that mistake again. I said during this losing skid that they are an average team with an excellent streak. I still maintain that opinion.
This team was left for dead when the season started, even by their own fans. This was similar to the 2014 post lockout Blue Jackets where we were supposed to finish last by a mile, but we came one point from the playoffs. This team is better than that team, probably substantially better, but that team played more consistent and as a team than this one does. The team aspect is also what made us make it 2 years ago against Pittsburgh.
Anyway, back to my original point of them being left for dead, they were influenced and eager to prove they didn't suck. That last year was just a fluke of horrible luck, and a bunch of horrible seasons for individuals colliding together. Prior to the streak the CBJ started out pretty good, around the playoff bubble IIRC, while managing to string together strong wins and play well. However, teams were clearly looking by them, and the CBJ treated every game like a playoff game in the desperation factor. Not that they played like it was a playoff game, but just the desperation the playoffs provide. We jumped on some teams, noteworthy being Montreal and STL with tons of goals, and we started feeling ourselves and playing as a team. They were in the thick of the race when nobody thought they would be, and honestly the talent level on the team says they shouldn't be (Still to this day.)
Then obviously the streak happened. They treated those games like playoff games, with intensity and level of play. They got bailed out by Bob and McElhinney numerous times during the streak, but they still played a team game. Now I am going to steal an Aaron Portzline line here, and they became the hunted instead of hunters. Columbus had no business beating Montreal or Boston in late December/early January (I forget) of that win streak. They got dominated in both games. Cracks were beginning to show.
The first shock to them was the absolute domination by Washington to end their streak. I feel like this hurt their psyche a little bit, and the cracks were starting to really show, but they were fine. However, the next game is where the cracks really become noticeable.
I am a big believer in confidence. As a team, and as an individual. I feel the entire teams confidence was taken away from them in ONE PERIOD in GAME ONE last year. When we played the Rangers and had them on the ropes in game 1, after Saad scored to give us the lead late in the 3rd. You know how this story ends. We lose that game, and then get blasted the very next night against the same team. The season was over from that point forward. The teams mental stability was very fragile.
Anyway, to this year. We played the Rangers (funny right?) and we were playing our game. We were playing like our old selves during the streak. Post streak problems? Nah, not a chance. We were playing excellent hockey.....and then Curtis McElhinney turns into Curtis McElhinney and we blow that game in the 3rd. The team was playing tight as hell, nervous, and just choked that game away. It reminded me of last years team, except in one period rather than all 3. I haven't seen our game return completely since that game. I am worried since this team retains most of that same team last year that our mental stability is fragile still, and this is going to be the turning point of the season, as last years choke job against the NYR was.
Long story short, I don't believe in this team. I trust Jones. I trust Foligno, Dubinsky, Jenner, and Atkinson to at minimum provide effort and energy. I trust Bob to make some big saves, but I also concede he can be very streaky. That's about it, as far as positives. Werenski and Wennberg's games have fallen off cliffs, which is to be expected by young players, but still who are they? Saad is inconsistent as hell, is he a trustworthy top line guy? JJ isn't the same without Savard. Nuti is a rookie and plays like one. Harrington and Murray aren't special. Gagner has turned back into the player he's been during the last few years of his career.
I still THINK we will make the playoffs off that win streak, however, I don't think it will be a pretty end.
I never really understand analysis that disregards the good, but not the bad.
You can't apply the low points to the entire season any more than you can apply the high points to the entire season. There are ebbs and flows. They're never as good as when things are going well and never as bad as when things are going poorly. This is how it works for every team in every sport over a long season.
Fans apply this to players all of the time as well and it drives me nuts. Every player has stretches where they struggle or don't score that balance out the stretches where they are on fire. The best players minimize this, but every.single.one. of them goes through it, yet we want to trade them away whenever struggles occur or sign them long term when they're hot...it's just nonsensical.
The "unsustainable" argument is equally nonsense, IMO. Literally everything is unsustainable for long periods. Consistency certainly is more easily sustainable, but do people really think that most teams are consistent? Few teams have power play or penalty kill percentages that don't fluctuate, sometimes wildly, over the course of a season. Certainly the CBJ could be more consistent and that would be better for them and us, but the only consistent thing about youth is inconsistency. Of course no one thought they'd keep up with their levels of November and December and go 73-5-4 by the end of the season..., but why is it so easy to believe they'll maintain the lower numbers? Same guys. They could just as easily get hot again as we go through this roller coaster with them.
They are no more "below average" than they are the top team in the league. Probably a solid 3/4 in the Metro - which is right where they are.
I hope you're right. But I just don't see it that way. I see them as more of a 5-6 in the metro based on talent (the only team I can absolutely 100% say we're better than is New Jersey. Philly is close, but NJ is the only for sure.) rather than top 4.
Maybe I'm just a glass half empty person.
