What is your expected trajectory for the Leafs over the next 7 years?

[Fogelhund]

So for next season we add Stamkos and bring up a bunch of kids and graduates.

Leivo, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Percy, Harrington(will play).

Likely we will have an import or two trying for the team.

UFAs likely wont be signed.

Tender may be had.
-----------
The years after next.

These years really won't consist of much more than drafting, developing, slotting new guys in and out but the primary goal being getting value for guys we develop and move on from (more like Chicago) we will settle on the core in year 3 from now and likely be somewhat competitive from this season forth. Contending starts to take shape in year 3 onward.

That's how I see it.

While I wouldn't count chickens before they hatch, I wouldn't be shocked to see Vesey added to this mix.

 

[Pookie]

Under Scorched Earth Rebuild

Years 1-3 - Bottom of the league
Years 4-6 - Progression to mid table
Years 6+ - Progression to Top 10

Under Stamkos Accelerated Rebuild

Years 1 - Bottom of the League
Years 2-5 - Lower mid table - playoffs in Year 3
Years 6-7 - Bottom half of the league

 

[Jacquestrapless]

The Blackhawks timeline (players in brackets are other useful players )

01-02: Finish 5th in W.C ; Draft Duncan Keith (also James Wisniewski but didn't play)
02-03: Finish 9th; Draft Seabrook, Byfuglien (also Crawford)
03-04: Finish last; Draft Brouwer, Bolland ( Bickell )
04-05: Lockout; Draft Hjalmarsson
05-06: Finish 14th; Draft Toews
06-07: Finish 13th; Draft Kane
07-08: Finish 10th; No one drafted played in first cup
08-09: Finish 4th; No one drafted played in first cup
09-10: Cup

Acquisitions
Sharp: Acquired in Trade 05-06
Versteeg: Acquired in Trade 06-07
Campbell: Acquired in UFA 08-09
Huet: Acquired in UFA 08-09
Niemi: Acquired in UFA 08-09
Ladd: Acquired in Trade 08-09
Quennville: Became coach in 08-09 season
Hossa: Acquired in UFA 09-10

*Left out many depth/lower tier players

Discussion Points
- A long arduous journey of collecting the right mix of players. Even after drafting Kane, they spent one more season out of contention
- As everyone knew, drafting was key component to success. From the 02-09 season, only 3/7 players drafted in the first round amounted to anything of significance (Kane, Toews, Seabrook). Everyone else (excluding traded players) was drafted outside of the 1st round
- Timely Trades were made regardless of standings. Some key players were acquired 4-5 years before the cup run.
- It took only two (consecutive) tries in the playoffs with the new core to win the cup. Quennville came on 2 years before the cup win.
- Playing behind this defense, goaltending only needed to be average. Niemi was there when he needed to be.
- 2010 Hawks were cap-crunched going into the season, knowing key role players wanted increases in salary. They won it all and auctioned off some players in the off-season. They kept the core intact and remained competitive in the years to come.
- Didn't shy away from giving that enormous(circumventing) contract to Hossa even with cap problems looming on horizon (MGMT may have thought they were close to winning)


What I learned: Nothing much. We all knew this before. Just needed some perspective. Maybe keep expectations low, since a rebuild is volatile, you never know what's going to happen (i.e 14-15 Flames and 15-16 Flames). I guess that's why I keep watching hockey.

Interestingly enough, if we were to say the rebuild for them began in 02-03 when they missed the playoffs, it took them 8 years to win the cup. Babcock signed on for 8 years. So ETA is 2023 or less?

 

[Mess]

In all seriousness.

I expect in the next 7 years for the Leafs to be in the conference finals and final 4 at the minimum expectations with the new management team we have now.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

No expectations.
As of today December 16, 2015 13:52 EST .... we have 0% shot at Lord Stanley.

 

[gabeliscious]

In all seriousness.

I expect in the next 7 years for the Leafs to be in the conference finals and final 4 at the minimum expectations with the new management team we have now.

i agree that with the new management team in place and our new approach to drafting/player development it isnt crazy to expect the team to be competitive within ~5 years.

i think it will also depend on if we get stamkos, zaitsev, and vessey and who we draft. if we get matthews but even if we get someone like laine.

 

[Menzinger]

Looking at management's comments over the past year (Hunters in particular) it seems as if they have a five year plan - so I expect the team to be in "contending status" 5+ years after Hunters hiring - so 2019/20.

If it takes management more than 6 years to show significant improvement then they will have failed. It will have also meant that their drafting has been awful. I'm not expecting this to happen.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think it depends on how the young guns will play and how much more guys like Reilly, Jake, Holland and JVR can improve as team players. Most importantly, Goaltending. The other thing is FA signings. Stamkos will speed it up a yr or two.

Think it will be up and down but I think the team will be a bubbling playoffs team starting next yr, due to the weaker East.

 

[thewave]

Under Scorched Earth Rebuild

Years 1-3 - Bottom of the league
Years 4-6 - Progression to mid table
Years 6+ - Progression to Top 10

Under Stamkos Accelerated Rebuild

Years 1 - Bottom of the League
Years 2-5 - Lower mid table - playoffs in Year 3
Years 6-7 - Bottom half of the league

Do you not read this back to yourself and think it extreme?

 

[Gabriel426]

The Blackhawks timeline (players in brackets are other useful players )

01-02: Finish 5th in W.C ; Draft Duncan Keith (also James Wisniewski but didn't play)
02-03: Finish 9th; Draft Seabrook, Byfuglien (also Crawford)
03-04: Finish last; Draft Brouwer, Bolland ( Bickell )
04-05: Lockout; Draft Hjalmarsson
05-06: Finish 14th; Draft Toews
06-07: Finish 13th; Draft Kane
07-08: Finish 10th; No one drafted played in first cup
08-09: Finish 4th; No one drafted played in first cup
09-10: Cup

Acquisitions
Sharp: Acquired in Trade 05-06
Versteeg: Acquired in Trade 06-07
Campbell: Acquired in UFA 08-09
Huet: Acquired in UFA 08-09
Niemi: Acquired in UFA 08-09
Ladd: Acquired in Trade 08-09
Quennville: Became coach in 08-09 season
Hossa: Acquired in UFA 09-10

*Left out many depth/lower tier players

Discussion Points
- A long arduous journey of collecting the right mix of players. Even after drafting Kane, they spent one more season out of contention
- As everyone knew, drafting was key component to success. From the 02-09 season, only 3/7 players drafted in the first round amounted to anything of significance (Kane, Toews, Seabrook). Everyone else (excluding traded players) was drafted outside of the 1st round
- Timely Trades were made regardless of standings. Some key players were acquired 4-5 years before the cup run.
- It took only two (consecutive) tries in the playoffs with the new core to win the cup. Quennville came on 2 years before the cup win.
- Playing behind this defense, goaltending only needed to be average. Niemi was there when he needed to be.
- 2010 Hawks were cap-crunched going into the season, knowing key role players wanted increases in salary. They won it all and auctioned off some players in the off-season. They kept the core intact and remained competitive in the years to come.
- Didn't shy away from giving that enormous(circumventing) contract to Hossa even with cap problems looming on horizon (MGMT may have thought they were close to winning)


What I learned: Nothing much. We all knew this before. Just needed some perspective. Maybe keep expectations low, since a rebuild is volatile, you never know what's going to happen (i.e 14-15 Flames and 15-16 Flames). I guess that's why I keep watching hockey.

Interestingly enough, if we were to say the rebuild for them began in 02-03 when they missed the playoffs, it took them 8 years to win the cup. Babcock signed on for 8 years. So ETA is 2023 or less?

Good stuff, mate.

But if we are going to recap, should we do that with the Kadri draft or at the very least Reilly Draft yr?
I am not sure when or will the Leafs ever win the Cup, but say they win it with Reilly, Brown, Goat, Leo, Willie, Marner, JVR....then it is only fair to start recapping at Earlier than say 2014-15(Babs hiring).

 

[HockeyAndWings]

If the Leafs can stay committed to rebuilding this season and next, with an addition of a big FA, the Leafs could become competitive sooner rather than later. The rebuild could arguably take an extra year than planned.The key is patience, though.

 

[AppsSyl]

When the fact that we were rebuilding was revealed, I think Shanahan envisioned it taking about 7 or 8 years to be in contention, but with the hiring of Hunter, and then Babcock, and then Lamiorello, and the impact they can have on the key elements in a rebuild (drafting well, developing talent, appropriate roster moves, and creating structure and culture to succeed) the vision for contention became more like 5 years as mentioned in an earlier post.

 

[Go4soda]

For the first time ever, i can say, I just trust this management group.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'd like to see a heavy focus on collecting high-value assets through the draft over the next 3 years.

Results should come in years 4-7 with surgical adjustments to the roster taking place all-throughout.

After year 7, there's no reason we shouldn't a Cup contending team.

 

[WillNytheSwedishGuy]

Under Scorched Earth Rebuild

Years 1-3 - Bottom of the league
Years 4-6 - Progression to mid table
Years 6+ - Progression to Top 10

Under Stamkos Accelerated Rebuild

Years 1 - Bottom of the League
Years 2-5 - Lower mid table - playoffs in Year 3
Years 6-7 - Bottom half of the league

What year do think we are currently in here? I ask because if you think we are going to be bottom dwellers for this year and the next two (even without Stammer) you are kidding yourself. Everyone acts like it takes forever to build a competent team but it doesn't. Especially when you have a competent management and coaching staff, which I'm beginning to think we do. Give Babcock an above average and consistent goaltender and we are climbing the standings quickly.

One more draft (with a ton of extra picks) and we are going to have the premier prospect pool in the league. Focus should then shift to building the right environment for them to develop in, and that may be helped by Stammer.

Also funny that you think a Stamkos contract relegates us to the bottom half of the league somehow in Year 6 (32) and 7 (33). Is the league going to start penalizing teams in the standings because they overpay a player or two? I've been beating the drum for an exit strategy with the Stamkos contract, but even if we can't move him, his contract alone does not sentence us to the bottom half of the league by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Leaf Lander]

I find it interesting that everyone has their own interpretations of what the rebuild is and the timeline for this to occur. It has really become extremely apparent that there are drastically different viewpoints on this since the Stamkos debate began. I thought it would be interesting to see other people's expectations for the Leafs over the next 7 years. I am using 7 years, because that is the length of Babcock's contract and obviously a point where he would expect to be successful by.

The expectations I have is this trajectory:

2015-16 25th-30th in the League
2016-17 18th-25th in the League (8th to 10th in the East)
2017-18 13th-18th in the League (6th to 9th in the East, either just in or on the cusp of a playoff spot, 1st rd if we make the playoffs)
2018-19 7th-13th in the League (in the playoffs as one of the three teams in our division or 1st wildcard spot, 1st-2nd round of the playoffs)
2019-20 4th-10th in the League (one of the top teams in our division and conference, 2nd rd or Conference finals in the playoffs)
2020-21 1st-7th in the League (one of the top teams in the League, Conference finals or Stanley Cup finals in the playoffs)
2021-22 1st-7th in the League (one of the top teams in the League,Cconference finals or Stanley Cup finals in the playoffs)

Ridiculous

I suspect that the Leafs. Will finish between 7 th
last and 12 th best with first rnd exits every yr that they squeak in in playoffs

 

[Maplebeasts]

I think some people are way off base when they think it's going to take 7+ years to contend. We already have some great pieces that are developing well and should make an impact very soon like Rielly,Marner. and Nylander, and look poised to add to that core with more elite talent in the next draft or 2. We have some nice pieces on contending teams already like JVR and Kadri. I see us making the playoffs in 2017-2018, making it to round 2 the next season, then being a serious cup threat every season afterward. Try 4-5 years until we're contenders, not 7+.

 

[gabeliscious]

I think some people are way off base when they think it's going to take 7+ years to contend. We already have some great pieces that are developing well and should make an impact very soon like Rielly,Marner. and Nylander, and look poised to add to that core with more elite talent in the next draft or 2. We have some nice pieces on contending teams already like JVR and Kadri. I see us making the playoffs in 2017-2018, making it to round 2 the next season, then being a serious cup threat every season afterward. Try 4-5 years until we're contenders, not 7+.

i think the 7 years are from when nylander was drafted so 2 years ago. i think that puts it at 3-5 years from today.

obviously adding stamkos would be huge. adding matthews as well but even just someone like laine would really make a difference. he has nhl size so might be able to make the jump. if we add laine, stamkos, and zaitsev as well as nylander and marner next season that is a **** ton of top end talent.

jvr stamkos marner
laine nylander lupul
komorov kadri holland
winnik bozak leivo

gardiner phaneuf
rielly zeitsev
hunwick percy/ corrado

 

[So Truculent]

we'll be in the playoffs in 3 years imo

top 10 team in 5

 

[Man Bear Pig]

For the first time ever, i can say, I just trust this management group.

In my head, I read this in Britney Spears' voice.

 

[Pookie]

What year do think we are currently in here? I ask because if you think we are going to be bottom dwellers for this year and the next two (even without Stammer) you are kidding yourself. Everyone acts like it takes forever to build a competent team but it doesn't. Especially when you have a competent management and coaching staff, which I'm beginning to think we do. Give Babcock an above average and consistent goaltender and we are climbing the standings quickly.

One more draft (with a ton of extra picks) and we are going to have the premier prospect pool in the league. Focus should then shift to building the right environment for them to develop in, and that may be helped by Stammer.

Really?

Buffalo is an interesting example. They have Eichel playing in the NHL right now... whereas our pick isn't even in the "A".

They traded for Kane and Bogosian in the offseason. NHL players in their peak.

They are 27th overall right now after a season of being dead last. Even with those pieces, it will take time.

We don't even have those pieces.

The terms and conditions of Scorched Earth highlighted that this would take a long time. Sooner we realize that and stop pretending there is another reality, the better.

I won't touch on the Stamkos shortcut that would mark an accelerated rebuild.

 

[Bomber0104]

I think some people are way off base when they think it's going to take 7+ years to contend. We already have some great pieces that are developing well and should make an impact very soon like Rielly,Marner. and Nylander, and look poised to add to that core with more elite talent in the next draft or 2. We have some nice pieces on contending teams already like JVR and Kadri. I see us making the playoffs in 2017-2018, making it to round 2 the next season, then being a serious cup threat every season afterward. Try 4-5 years until we're contenders, not 7+.

I guess some people have ambitions to "contend", and others have ambitions to "compete".

Nylander, Rielly, and Marner are great...

But you need to take a good, hard look around the league and tell me there's no other teams that have comparable prospects or NHL-ready players with their projected upsides already in their organization.

Doesn't that simply negate the position we're in?

Where is our competitive advantage going to come from?

 

[WillNytheSwedishGuy]

Really?

Buffalo is an interesting example. They have Eichel playing in the NHL right now... whereas our pick isn't even in the "A".

They traded for Kane and Bogosian in the offseason. NHL players in their peak.

They are 27th overall right now after a season of being dead last. Even with those pieces, it will take time.

We don't even have those pieces.

The terms and conditions of Scorched Earth highlighted that this would take a long time. Sooner we realize that and stop pretending there is another reality, the better.

I won't touch on the Stamkos shortcut that would mark an accelerated rebuild.

Think you are fixating a little too much on rhetoric with the 'scorched earth' stuff. You are basing your whole understanding of what this team's personnel development plan is on a phrase Shanny might (depending on your perception of the media's credibility) have used in a boardroom once.

Having said that, Buffalo's last season, with the exception of the Kane acquisition maybe, was really a case of stripping a team down to the studs with an eye toward draft position, so that may have been 'scorched earth'. I'm not convinced that is what the Leafs management group intends to do, at least not in the short duration that Buffalo did it. The Sabres' last season was an intentionally manufactured tire fire. I don't doubt their early struggles this year are a partial product of trying to recover from that (for the players left who had to live through it). You can't intentionally undermine your pro team and not expect it to have at least some temporary negative impact on the development of your group. To this you can add the influx of new players, a new coaching staff, and an early injury to your supposed number one goaltender, and you get Buffalo's season so far.

The parallel between both Buffalo and the Leafs at the moment is the absence of solid goaltending. As I mentioned, if that is found, the team's position in the standings will improve quickly.

The other possible parallel between the two teams ties in to your Stamkos 'shortcut' remark. With acquisitions like Kane and O'Reilly, the Sabres are clearly taking steps to insulate their young players with reasonably high end proven NHL talent. If the Leafs were to sign Stamkos, they would be doing something similar. Signing Stamkos isn't a 'shortcut' if you think the plan all along was to build a great prospect pool and a quality NHL team simultaneously. Its not as simple as sucking for a period, forming a young core around the same age and waiting. Its far more nuanced than that.

Buffalo is a decent comparison, given that I also think Buffalo is not far away from a leap in the standings either. Certainly going about rebuilding their team more smartly than Edmonton has.

 

[sxvnert]

All depends on the core assembled.

Key pieces for playoff contention:

1C - Stamkos
2C - Nylander
1W - Marner
2W - ?
1D - Rielly
2D - ?
1G - ?

A legitimate top pairing partner for Rielly and a solid/top goaltender are crucial pieces. Depth is easily attainable.

 

[Morgs]

I see us taking a similar path as the Blackhawks. Suck, Draft high twice in a row, and miss the playoffs rookie season. Instead of Toews & Kane it's Marner, Nylander & potentially who we draft this year(People do compare Matthews to Toews...). Sophmore season for the three, as well as having our established #1 in Rielly is where we make the playoffs.