What is your expected trajectory for the Leafs over the next 7 years?

[AppsSyl]

I find it interesting that everyone has their own interpretations of what the rebuild is and the timeline for this to occur. It has really become extremely apparent that there are drastically different viewpoints on this since the Stamkos debate began. I thought it would be interesting to see other people's expectations for the Leafs over the next 7 years. I am using 7 years, because that is the length of Babcock's contract and obviously a point where he would expect to be successful by.

The expectations I have is this trajectory:

2015-16 25th-30th in the League
2016-17 18th-25th in the League (8th to 10th in the East)
2017-18 13th-18th in the League (6th to 9th in the East, either just in or on the cusp of a playoff spot, 1st rd if we make the playoffs)
2018-19 7th-13th in the League (in the playoffs as one of the three teams in our division or 1st wildcard spot, 1st-2nd round of the playoffs)
2019-20 4th-10th in the League (one of the top teams in our division and conference, 2nd rd or Conference finals in the playoffs)
2020-21 1st-7th in the League (one of the top teams in the League, Conference finals or Stanley Cup finals in the playoffs)
2021-22 1st-7th in the League (one of the top teams in the League,Cconference finals or Stanley Cup finals in the playoffs)

Click to read more...

 

[Dustin]

I find it interesting that everyone has their own interpretations of what the rebuild is and the timeline for this to occur. It has really become extremely apparent that there are drastically different viewpoints on this since the Stamkos debate began. I thought it would be interesting to see other people's expectations for the Leafs over the next 7 years. I am using 7 years, because that is the length of Babcock's contract and obviously a point where he would expect to be successful by.

The expectations I have is this trajectory:

2015-16 25th-30th in the League
2016-17 18th-25th in the League (8th to 10th in the East)
2017-18 13th-18th in the League (6th to 9th in the East, either just in or on the cusp of a playoff spot, 1st rd if we make the playoffs)
2018-19 7th-13th in the League (in the playoffs as one of the three teams in our division or 1st wildcard spot, 1st-2nd round of the playoffs)
2019-20 4th-10th in the League (one of the top teams in our division and conference, 2nd rd or Conference finals in the playoffs)
2020-21 1st-7th in the League (one of the top teams in the League, Conference finals or Stanley Cup finals in the playoffs)
2021-22 1st-7th in the League (one of the top teams in the League,Cconference finals or Stanley Cup finals in the playoffs)

Awesome idea for a thread.

I won't break it down by year as I feel teams these days can have up and down years in the middle of a rebuild but by year 3 I expect the Leafs to be a competitive team for playoffs and by year 5 more of a playoff threat.

 

[AppsSyl]

Awesome idea for a thread.

I won't break it down by year as I feel teams these days can have up and down years in the middle of a rebuild but by year 3 I expect the Leafs to be a competitive team for playoffs and by year 5 more of a playoff threat.

Thanks for the thread compliment.

It is near impossible to pinpoint an exact spot each year, that why chose a range of spots for each season that I thought they would fall within. We have a nice group of prospects already and as they graduate into the NHL I think this club can make some real progress under Babcock.

 

[King Mapes]

I expect at least one playoff appearance!

In all seriousness I think we suck for 2-3 years, become a bubble team for a couple then become very good.

 

[thewave]

So for next season we add Stamkos and bring up a bunch of kids and graduates.

Leivo, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Percy, Harrington(will play).

Likely we will have an import or two trying for the team.

UFAs likely wont be signed.

Tender may be had.
-----------
The years after next.

These years really won't consist of much more than drafting, developing, slotting new guys in and out but the primary goal being getting value for guys we develop and move on from (more like Chicago) we will settle on the core in year 3 from now and likely be somewhat competitive from this season forth. Contending starts to take shape in year 3 onward.

That's how I see it.

 

[AppsSyl]

So for next season we add Stamkos and bring up a bunch of kids and graduates.

Leivo, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Percy, Harrington(will play).

Likely we will have an import or two trying for the team.

UFAs likely wont be signed.

Tender may be had.
-----------
The years after next.

These years really won't consist of much more than drafting, developing, slotting new guys in and out but the primary goal being getting value for guys we develop and move on from (more like Chicago) we will settle on the core in year 3 from now and likely be somewhat competitive from this season forth. Contending starts to take shape in year 3 onward.

That's how I see it.

Agreed. I have them on the cusp or just in year 3 and am of the same mindset as you about when the core will be in place.

 

[ACC1224]

Provided they find a Goalie, 2017-2018 is the year the make some noise.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I think next year we'll be in a Calgary sort of situation last year/Buffalo situation this year, a lot of the plugs will be gone, and we'll start seeing young talent make their way on the team, at which point you want to see improvement and not a losing environment.

Not playoffs next year like Calgary managed to squeeze into, but an improvement.

Playoffs maybe the year after but likely 2018-2019

 

[SprDaVE]

Probably a lot of ups and downs. I don't think you can realistically expect a rise in the standings every year.

It will largely depend on the development of the young players and the additions made by management.

 

[deletethis]

I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think that the integration of young talent into the lineup won't be more painful than this year's team sprinkled with experienced vets. No matter how prepared they are, a lineup containing several 19-22 year olds will be in over their heads many nights to start their NHL careers without high quality veteran talent to shelter them. I'm fully expecting the 2016-2017 and 2017-18 teams to struggle more than we've seen this team struggle this season.

 

[Dustin]

Thanks for the thread compliment.

It is near impossible to pinpoint an exact spot each year, that why chose a range of spots for each season that I thought they would fall within. We have a nice group of prospects already and as they graduate into the NHL I think this club can make some real progress under Babcock.

Oh I agree but every once in a while you will see a team play well above their level and the next year come down to reality. I can see the Leafs doing that. It could even be next year. If the Leafs get Stamkos, Nylander and or Marner have decent seasons and players on the Leafs have an average season, you may see them fighting for a playoff spot next year. Largely due to the Easts bottom 4 playoff spots being open.

It's a lot of ifs but none of them are unrealistic.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think that the integration of young talent into the lineup won't be more painful than this year's team sprinkled with experienced vets. No matter how prepared they are, a lineup containing several 19-22 year olds will be in over their heads many nights to start their NHL careers without high quality veteran talent to shelter them. I'm fully expecting the 2016-2017 and 2017-18 teams to struggle more than we've seen this team struggle this season.

They can't struggle more than this team it's impossible

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

They can't struggle more than this team it's impossible

I agree with that poster.

This team is primarily comprised of veterans who have been through it all. Imagine next years team with a bunch of youngsters who have very little NHL experience. It will be extremely frustrating, we are going to see alot of lopsided contests for and against us.

 

[hockeyes]

I feel like these threads are just about setting yourself up for disappointment, no matter how perfect you think the rebuild is going to go, a lot of luck will be required and it's totally unrealistic to make any sort of predictions for next year let alone 7 years from now. Chances that they are better? Pretty good, hard to get worse but that's about as far as I'd go today.

 

[Diatomic]

Until marner and Nylander and other young guys are a fixture in the team, we won't be very good.

 

[ACC1224]

I agree with that poster.

This team is primarily comprised of veterans who have been through it all. Imagine next years team with a bunch of youngsters who have very little NHL experience. It will be extremely frustrating, we are going to see alot of lopsided contests for and against us.

This Team would be much better with Nylander and Marner in the lineup. They will still have vets in the lineup after this year, why would you think they won't?

 

[Suntouchable13]

The thing is that development of teams is very rarely linear. Leafs might be up for a couple of seasons, then down again. Or stay down for a while like Edmonton.

 

[Mess]

2015-16 = Auston Matthews
2016-17 = Cup
2017-18 = Cup
2018-19 = Cup
etc.

 

[AppsSyl]

The thing is that development of teams is very rarely linear. Leafs might be up for a couple of seasons, then down again. Or stay down for a while like Edmonton.

Hence the reason for providing ranges, rather than exact position. Each year I would expect them to fall in a certain range. Where in that range depends upon whether they slightly overachieved or underachieved the previous year and whether or not other teams are on the rise or decline. There may be a season or two that is an outlier, but in general there should be a trend over that period. I think as we add new young pieces into the roster we will try and offset that with experience, leadership in structure to ensure we don't have an Edmonton on our hands.

 

[Warden of the North]

A Cup, or at least a very serious contender

 

[TheRexman]

2015-16 = Auston Matthews
2016-17 = Cup
2017-18 = Cup
2018-19 = Cup
etc.

They better

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I agree with that poster.

This team is primarily comprised of veterans who have been through it all. Imagine next years team with a bunch of youngsters who have very little NHL experience. It will be extremely frustrating, we are going to see alot of lopsided contests for and against us.

It can't get worse they 1 point out of DEAD LAST and that's OK THIS year but this is it, this is rock bottom there is nowhere to go but up.

Hence it can't get worse

 

[AustonMitchWilly]

2015-16 25th-30th in the League
2016-17 4th-10th in the League (one of the top teams in our division and conference, 2nd rd or Conference finals in the playoffs)
2017-18 1st-7th in the League (one of the top teams in the League, Conference finals or Stanley Cup finals in the playoffs)


beyond

 

[AppsSyl]

I feel like these threads are just about setting yourself up for disappointment, no matter how perfect you think the rebuild is going to go, a lot of luck will be required and it's totally unrealistic to make any sort of predictions for next year let alone 7 years from now. Chances that they are better? Pretty good, hard to get worse but that's about as far as I'd go today.

Whether things go exactly to how I or anyone else predicts is not necessarily the point of the thread. The point is what are your expectations for this team over that period. If we aren't prepared to actually think about what our expectations are for the rebuild and the team's progression, then should we really be entitled to make statements about whether or not certain actions would be premature, just right or too late for the rebuild. An example that comes to mind, because it is a current discussion point is whether or not we should sign Stamkos or not if he is available. If people haven't defined their expectations in their own minds at least, than how can you actually comment in an informed and objective way about what is right and wrong.

 

[champs*]

i expect playoffs if we can get the goalie thing worked out next year