What are the odds that McDavid becomes a member of the Big 5?

daver

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Hard to say right now. Basically we are talking about McDavid in 2021 and Crosby in 2011. Outside of the big 4 has anyone had a better start to their career (6 years) than McDavid other than perhaps Crosby? I'll say no even for Jagr from 1990-'96. Ray Bourque as well. Actually, come to think of it, did Gordie Howe have a better 6 year start to his career? Maybe not even. Granted, we all know how Howe's story ends and not even Gretzky was as consistently great for as many consecutive seasons, which is about 20. So my guess is McDavid doesn't have that sort of longevity, no one does, and even Howe in his 7th season did what McDavid did this year, if not better.

So this boils down to Crosby and McDavid. It all depends on what you figure was more valuable. Do the extra two Art Rosses make up for the Conn Smythe-like playoff runs Crosby had up until that point?

Up until Game 41 of this season, Crosby and McDavid were pretty much identical in offensive production through their first five and one half seasons. McDavid, has he has tended to do, went off at the end of this season as conditions for him to do so presented themselves.

Crosby adds a notably superior 2-way game, and a playoff resume that is perhaps unrivalled by any other player thru age 24 besides Wayne.
 

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Crosby adds a notably superior 2-way game...

Sidney Crosby has never been especially good at defense. The Canadian media invented that nonsense to compensate after his offense was no longer among the best players. Crosby has never shut anyone down, doesn't kill penalties, and takes more offensive zone draws than just about anyone.
 

Big Phil

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Up until Game 41 of this season, Crosby and McDavid were pretty much identical in offensive production through their first five and one half seasons. McDavid, has he has tended to do, went off at the end of this season as conditions for him to do so presented themselves.

Crosby adds a notably superior 2-way game, and a playoff resume that is perhaps unrivalled by any other player thru age 24 besides Wayne.

Good question to ask. Who has had a better playoff resume up until age 24 besides Gretzky other than Crosby? It definitely is a legitimate question. Malkin is just as good I guess you can say. Bossy? You might have to look at Roy and Sawchuk to figure this out. Just goes to show you how Crosby hit the ground running in his career so quickly, we forget this. And while he has had three lousy postseasons in a row, he still was 10th in scoring this year. So he is still adding to his resume and could be a legitimate #5 at the end of his career. McDavid could have plenty of work cut out for him.
 

danincanada

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Sidney Crosby has never been especially good at defense. The Canadian media invented that nonsense to compensate after his offense was no longer among the best players. Crosby has never shut anyone down, doesn't kill penalties, and takes more offensive zone draws than just about anyone.

Crosby has rounded out his game with age but I’m with you here overall. Seems like him being a 2-way force really became a thing to justify his first Conn Smythe.

Daver is trying to run with that narrative as far as he can now, as if Crosby was any more well rounded than McDavid is now when he was young. I seem to recall a certain Crosby fan not being interested in defensive play when Datsyuk was a superior defensive player to Crosby.

Putting up the points he did and being such a “two-way force”, you’d think he’d break the +20 mark more than once in his career.
 

daver

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Crosby has rounded out his game with age but I’m with you here overall. Seems like him being a 2-way force really became a thing to justify his first Conn Smythe.

Daver is trying to run with that narrative as far as he can now, as if Crosby was any more well rounded than McDavid is now when he was young. I seem to recall a certain Crosby fan not being interested in defensive play when Datsyuk was a superior defensive player to Crosby.

Putting up the points he did and being such a “two-way force”, you’d think he’d break the +20 mark more than once in his career.

I like how you quote "two-way force" in a way that presumes I actually stated it, complimented by other presumptions that you apparently were waiting to make re: Crosby's CS in 2016 and Crosby v. Datysuk.

To quote "Crosby adds a notably superior 2-way game" over McDavid thru their first six seasons. This can be viewed as simply not sacrificing defense for offense or even not playing the C role in your his own end but rather a hybrid C/W role. Like OV and Jagr, no issue with trying to max out McDavid's offense but when Crosby is producing at the same level while being defensively responsible, that, IMO, is "notably superior".
 

JackSlater

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Can't say that I see either Crosby or McDavid contributing enough defensively through their first six seasons to have it be a relevant point. Maybe a slight edge to Crosby, but so miniscule that again it doesn't move things either way. Crosby's defensive game has been overrated lately as some media members seem to want to vote for him for the Selke despite the existence of various superior options. He is definitely a better defensive player right now than McDavid is though.

I'd probably say that McDavid has been a bit better through six years, but I could understand someone going with Crosby depending on what they're looking for.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Sidney Crosby has never been especially good at defense. The Canadian media invented that nonsense to compensate after his offense was no longer among the best players. Crosby has never shut anyone down, doesn't kill penalties, and takes more offensive zone draws than just about anyone.

The narrative started 10 years ago when Malkin was the one sheltered with offensive zone starts, while Crosby took on a more two-way (different from defensive) role. This was about 5 or so years into Crosby's career IIRC.
 
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Staniowski

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The excitement over Connor McDavid this season - in the regular season - doesn't happen very often. I think the last time there was such giddiness in the hockey world, for a player, was for Mario Lemieux in his second season - '85-'86.

It was different, of course. Lemieux obviously didn't even lead the NHL in scoring. But....most hockey people recognized during this season, especially, that Lemieux was at least something close to Gretzky, and possibly with the potential to be as good or better.

Let's see what McDavid does next season. There's great anticipation.
 

daver

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Good question to ask. Who has had a better playoff resume up until age 24 besides Gretzky other than Crosby? It definitely is a legitimate question. Malkin is just as good I guess you can say. Bossy? You might have to look at Roy and Sawchuk to figure this out. Just goes to show you how Crosby hit the ground running in his career so quickly, we forget this. And while he has had three lousy postseasons in a row, he still was 10th in scoring this year. So he is still adding to his resume and could be a legitimate #5 at the end of his career. McDavid could have plenty of work cut out for him.

I think the idea of McDavid being the #5 player is much more realistic and interesting as he can be compared to a direct peer from his era (Crosby) season by season career-wise.

I simply don't see him coming close to his regular season domination in the playoffs where his ability to exploit looser checking/less defensive focused games is significantly hindered. MacKinnon is certainly putting the spotlight on himself as a playoff beast which should significantly take the shine off of McDavid's regular season accomplishments.

Like Jagr and Esposito, the # of Art Ross wins will not automatically place home among, let alone above players with notably less wins.
 
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bobholly39

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I think the idea of McDavid being the #5 player is much more realistic and interesting as he can be compared to a direct peer from his era (Crosby) season by season career-wise.

I simply don't see him coming close to his regular season domination in the playoffs where his ability to exploit looser checking/less defensive focused games is significantly hindered. MacKinnon is certainly putting the spotlight on himself as a playoff beast which should significantly take the shine off of McDavid's regular season accomplishments.

Like Jagr and Esposito, the # of Art Ross wins will not automatically place home among, let alone above players with notably less wins.

That's just silly. Clearly he hasn't yet - but why couldn't he? There's never been a played of his talent in the history of the game who hasn't figured it out and put together a great playoff resume. Maybe it won't be great enough to compete with Crosby or solidify at #5 - but I have no doubt he eventually figures it out and does well. Just how well is the question

And if you mean that literally - as good in regular season as in playoffs - well, Gretzky/Lemieux/Crosby never produced as much either compared to regular season best. So you have to put that in perspective a bit, scoring tends to go down
 

daver

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That's just silly. Clearly he hasn't yet - but why couldn't he? There's never been a played of his talent in the history of the game who hasn't figured it out and put together a great playoff resume. Maybe it won't be great enough to compete with Crosby or solidify at #5 - but I have no doubt he eventually figures it out and does well. Just how well is the question

And if you mean that literally - as good in regular season as in playoffs - well, Gretzky/Lemieux/Crosby never produced as much either compared to regular season best. So you have to put that in perspective a bit, scoring tends to go down

IMO, his speed game simply doesn't translate as well in the playoffs because the games are tighter.

Wayne/Mario/Crosby all dominated the playoffs in a similar way they dominated their peers in the regular season not necessarily by producing at their regular season clip.
 

daver

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FWIW, McDavid seems to have added a lot to his offensive resume by scoring a ton of points in scenarios where one can rack up points (i.e. end of season against teams out of the playoffs and/or your own team is out of the playoffs) and I think many have added a grain of salt to his regular season this year.

From 16/17 onwards, his PPG thru the first 3/4s of the season averages 1.39. His PPG in the last 1/4 of the season averages 1.74.

In 16/17, at the 3/4 mark, he was ahead by two points over Crosby in scoring but behind in PPG (1.25 to 1.12).

In 17/18, at the 3/4 mark, he was T4 in scoring and T5 in PPG

In 18/19, at the 3/4 mark, he was 3rd in PPG and 3rd in scoring

In 19/20, at the 3/4 mark, he was 4th in scoring and 2nd in PPG

I think this reiterates the point that he will need to show he will need back up his regular season numbers with his playoff ones to be considered among the very best all-time.





 

Professor What

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The excitement over Connor McDavid this season - in the regular season - doesn't happen very often. I think the last time there was such giddiness in the hockey world, for a player, was for Mario Lemieux in his second season - '85-'86.

It was different, of course. Lemieux obviously didn't even lead the NHL in scoring. But....most hockey people recognized during this season, especially, that Lemieux was at least something close to Gretzky, and possibly with the potential to be as good or better.

Let's see what McDavid does next season. There's great anticipation.

My earliest hockey exposure was in the early 90s, so I obviously don't remember that season by Lemieux. I guess the closest things I personally can remember to the excitement over McDavid this season would be Mario's 1992-93, with the incredible comeback from cancer treatment, which I really only vaguely remember, and I remember a lot of people going nuts when Ovechkin scored 65, a season I obviously remember far better. There was obvious reason for excitement for both, but I agree that they're not quite at the same level. My guess is that the difference here is that there's a real feeling that it's probably going to happen again. Lemieux's 1992-93 was a one-off on circumstances that no one wanted to see come around again, and it was already very well known what he could do. By 2008, Ovechkin had already established himself as an all-time elite goalscorer, but I think it was always a stretch that he'd but up another season that was among the best goalscoring seasons in history. Even the best of the best don't tend to have seasons that insanely good twice in a career. But with McDavid, I really feel that this is just the beginning of something. The two biggest questions I have going forward are, will it continue to grow, and how long will it last?
 

vadim sharifijanov

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FWIW, McDavid seems to have added a lot to his offensive resume by scoring a ton of points in scenarios where one can rack up points (i.e. end of season against teams out of the playoffs and/or your own team is out of the playoffs) and I think many have added a grain of salt to his regular season this year.

From 16/17 onwards, his PPG thru the first 3/4s of the season averages 1.39. His PPG in the last 1/4 of the season averages 1.74.

In 16/17, at the 3/4 mark, he was ahead by two points over Crosby in scoring but behind in PPG (1.25 to 1.12).

In 17/18, at the 3/4 mark, he was T4 in scoring and T5 in PPG

In 18/19, at the 3/4 mark, he was 3rd in PPG and 3rd in scoring

In 19/20, at the 3/4 mark, he was 4th in scoring and 2nd in PPG

I think this reiterates the point that he will need to show he will need back up his regular season numbers with his playoff ones to be considered among the very best all-time.

a couple of years ago, with his 2018 art ross and him having that insane march and *almost* challenging kucherov toward the end of 2019, i wondered if mcdavid's second half production were just garbage time points. but after what we saw this spring, i'm looking back at his monster stretch runs and what you see is he goes off whether he's in a playoff race or not.

i think the more likely explanation is that he's just flat out a superior athlete, which is pretty undeniable, and at points in the season where fatigue and nagging injuries are slowing other people down, he stands out even more because he's still going at october speed.

if you look at the stretch run of this season, when he scored three points a game for two weeks and averaged two points/game over two months, sure he destroyed post-COVID vancouver (14 points/5 games). but he destroyed the jets just as badly, 13 points/5 games.

if you look at his first MVP year, on march 12, he's two points ahead of kane in the scoring race, just three points ahead of crosby and four over malkin (and well behind both in points/game). the oilers are 35-24-9, and while i don't know where they are in the standings (is there a way to look that up? i don't know how) that's a 95 point pace. 95 points would have squeaked them into the playoffs with a one point cushion over the 9th place team.

after that game, mcdavid wins all the trophies with a 25 point in 14 game run. more importantly, the oilers go 12-2-0. they finish with 103 points and come within a win of catching anaheim for first in the division (whom they lost to 4-3 during that stretch run, three point game by mcdavid). the team they played and had home ice advantage over in the first round, san jose, was 41-20-7 on march 12.

all to say, there were real stakes in those stretch run games where mcdavid went off. i mean, this is the time of year when the games get *more* competitive right?
 
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daver

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a couple of years ago, with his 2018 art ross and him having that insane march and *almost* challenging kucherov toward the end of 2019, i wondered if mcdavid's second half production were just garbage time points. but after what we saw this spring, i'm looking back at his monster stretch runs and what you see is he goes off whether he's in a playoff race or not.

i think the more likely explanation is that he's just flat out a superior athlete, which is pretty undeniable, and at points in the season where fatigue and nagging injuries are slowing other people down, he stands out even more because he's still going at october speed.

if you look at the stretch run of this season, when he scored three points a game for two weeks and averaged two points/game over two months, sure he destroyed post-COVID vancouver (14 points/5 games). but he destroyed the jets just as badly, 13 points/5 games.

if you look at his first MVP year, on march 12, he's two points ahead of kane in the scoring race, just three points ahead of crosby and four over malkin (and well behind both in points/game). the oilers are 35-24-9, and while i don't know where they are in the standings (is there a way to look that up? i don't know how) that's a 95 point pace. 95 points would have squeaked them into the playoffs with a one point cushion over the 9th place team.

after that game, mcdavid wins all the trophies with a 25 point in 14 game run. more importantly, the oilers go 12-2-0. they finish with 103 points and come within a win of catching anaheim for first in the division (whom they lost to 4-3 during that stretch run, three point game by mcdavid). the team they played and had home ice advantage over in the first round, san jose, was 41-20-7 on march 12.

all to say, there were real stakes in those stretch run games where mcdavid went off. i mean, this is the time of year when the games get *more* competitive right?

Fair assessment. I had no issue with is 2016/17 Art Ross win, full marks there.
 

vadim sharifijanov

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The excitement over Connor McDavid this season - in the regular season - doesn't happen very often. I think the last time there was such giddiness in the hockey world, for a player, was for Mario Lemieux in his second season - '85-'86.

It was different, of course. Lemieux obviously didn't even lead the NHL in scoring. But....most hockey people recognized during this season, especially, that Lemieux was at least something close to Gretzky, and possibly with the potential to be as good or better.

Let's see what McDavid does next season. There's great anticipation.

imo the last time we saw this kind of excitement was 1993 mario

through the first month, he had 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 pts in 11 games — over the full 84, on pace for 122 goals, 153 assists, 275 points

there was serious discussion that this guy we just saw win back to back cups had hit a new level and now also had his own superteam and could actually break gretzky's records and sweep the next decade of cups

mcdavid hasn't entered that stratosphere of everybody drooling though (yet?)
 
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ContrarianGoaltender

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if you look at his first MVP year, on march 12, he's two points ahead of kane in the scoring race, just three points ahead of crosby and four over malkin (and well behind both in points/game). the oilers are 35-24-9, and while i don't know where they are in the standings (is there a way to look that up? i don't know how) that's a 95 point pace. 95 points would have squeaked them into the playoffs with a one point cushion over the 9th place team.

Yes, there is: NHL Standings.
 
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The Panther

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And if you mean that literally - as good in regular season as in playoffs - well, Gretzky/Lemieux/Crosby never produced as much either compared to regular season best. So you have to put that in perspective a bit, scoring tends to go down
Well, as a whole, elite scorers rarely produce quite as much in playoffs as regular season, but I wouldn't say "never":

Regular season PPG / Playoff PPG
Gretzky 1982-83

2.45 / 2.38 (this has been 2.83 before the Final)
Gretzky 1984-85
2.60 / 2.61
Gretzky 1987-88
2.33 / 2.26
Gretzky 1992-93
1.44 / 1.67
Lemieux 1991-92
2.05 / 2.27
Crosby 2007-08
1.36 / 1.35

So, it does happen, and these are all in runs to the Cup Finals. where obviously it's harder to maintain the same scoring pace.

McDavid will have his day, and will do this soon. We just have to give him (and Ken Holland) time.
 

Big Phil

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I think the idea of McDavid being the #5 player is much more realistic and interesting as he can be compared to a direct peer from his era (Crosby) season by season career-wise.

I simply don't see him coming close to his regular season domination in the playoffs where his ability to exploit looser checking/less defensive focused games is significantly hindered. MacKinnon is certainly putting the spotlight on himself as a playoff beast which should significantly take the shine off of McDavid's regular season accomplishments.

Like Jagr and Esposito, the # of Art Ross wins will not automatically place home among, let alone above players with notably less wins.

Jagr and Esposito, I find, are still wonderful playoff performers. If there is any knock on them, it is that the "other" guy on those championships was better and was the Conn Smythe winner. Rightfully so, although especially Esposito I think he was more than capable of carrying the mail (eg. see Summit Series). I mean, the guy led the playoffs in scoring three times, and one other time took a less than ideal team to the Cup final near the end of his career. That seems to make up for the fact that they both have lots of hardware but stopped at a certain age from winning them again.
 

Czech Your Math

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I think the idea of McDavid being the #5 player is much more realistic and interesting as he can be compared to a direct peer from his era (Crosby) season by season career-wise.

I simply don't see him coming close to his regular season domination in the playoffs where his ability to exploit looser checking/less defensive focused games is significantly hindered. MacKinnon is certainly putting the spotlight on himself as a playoff beast which should significantly take the shine off of McDavid's regular season accomplishments.

Like Jagr and Esposito, the # of Art Ross wins will not automatically place home among, let alone above players with notably less wins.

Jagr and Espo performed much better in the playoffs than McDavid has so far. He has a lot of work to do in the next several years.
 
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The Panther

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Jagr and Espo performed much better in the playoffs than McDavid has so far.
Not really seeing it, with regards to Jagr (or Esposito, at Connor's age, obviously).

McDavid's playoff resume, on a club with no depth, is 22 points in 21 games (+2).

By age 24, Jagr, on the League's highest-scoring club with historically stacked line-ups in a higher scoring era, had scored 90 points in 93 games (+13).

Of course, Jagr by that age had achieved far more in the post-season, since he had appeared in the Finals twice and won the Cup twice, in his first two years. But on an individual play level? I don't see it.

Esposito, by McDavid's age, had 8 points in 29 playoff games (-1). Not sure he was getting the big minutes, though.

Remember, this thread isn't arguing McDavid in the Top-5 right now. It's about his potential. He's doing better than Esposito by far and as well as Jagr by the same age.
 

Czech Your Math

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Not really seeing it, with regards to Jagr (or Esposito, at Connor's age, obviously).

McDavid's playoff resume, on a club with no depth, is 22 points in 21 games (+2).

By age 24, Jagr, on the League's highest-scoring club with historically stacked line-ups in a higher scoring era, had scored 90 points in 93 games (+13).

Of course, Jagr by that age had achieved far more in the post-season, since he had appeared in the Finals twice and won the Cup twice, in his first two years. But on an individual play level? I don't see it.

Esposito, by McDavid's age, had 8 points in 29 playoff games (-1). Not sure he was getting the big minutes, though.

Remember, this thread isn't arguing McDavid in the Top-5 right now. It's about his potential. He's doing better than Esposito by far and as well as Jagr by the same age.

Daver wasn't talking about by age 24, he was talking in general, so that's how we were responding.

And while you previously mentioned McDavid getting a pass for being young, he won the Ross that year at age 20.
At age 20, Jagr was a second liner that led the playoffs in ES goals/points during a Cup-winning run, including 3 consecutive GWG vs. Rangers & Bruins while Lemieux was injured, and a famous game-tying goal with 5 minutes left in game 1 of SCF vs. Chicago team that had won 11 in a row. The year before he scored an impressive OT goal to avoid going down to Devils 0-2 heading back to Jersey for 3 games (they won in 7)... while playing on a line with Jiri Hrdina & Phil Bourque. I woul give him a pass for '91, when he turned 19 in the middle of the year, and was in his first year in U.S./NHL while knowing almost zero English and playing on third line. From age 20-24 he was 69-39-38-77 +14 (with a Cup + ECF and won 8 series).

Although it's too early to judge McDavid's playoff record, it's not been particularly impressive so far. He's had one very good series (a play-in series vs. team that wouldn't normally be in playoffs) and three mediocre to weak ones. It's not that concerning if you're just expecting him to compete with the several others with a claim to #5, but to make it a Big 5 he will have to dramatically improve his playoff performance soon.
 

The Panther

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Daver wasn't talking about by age 24, he was talking in general, so that's how we were responding.
Er... okay (I don't see Daver's posts), but isn't it a bit silly to compare playoff legacies of guys with 130 and 208 playoff games to a guy with 21? This topic, of necessity, requires some projection into the future...

Anyway, it'll all come out in the wash. Just wait 15 years.
 
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