I agree with the bolded, except there wasn't any real argument (Lindros couldn't stay healthy enough to play full seasons, so none of this PPG B.S.).
Just based on his regular season exploits thus far, I think McDavid is going to end up being compared to Jagr & Crosby, the two best scorers since the NHL fully integrated non-Canadian talent (or since Wayne/Mario). So let's take a look at these 3 greats using the metrics I consider most when evaluating forwards, particularly elite scoring forwards.
PEAK/PRIME SCORING LEVEL
I believe there are better alternatives to VsX, but I will mostly use that as the best generally accepted scoring standard for now.
7 Year VsX: Jagr 114.2, Crosby 102.4
10 Year VsX: Jagr 105.9, Crosby 99.6
While the future is always uncertain to some extent, it's particularly true in McDavid's case. He's had five very good seasons in a row, but this past season was obviously extraordinary (both his performance and the conditions of playing 6 teams for a total of 56 games). We'll need at least a couple more seasons until we can determine whether he's hit a new level and what that level is. I don't consider a new level to be hit when it's a single shortened season. Crosby's 2013 & Jagr's 1995 seasons were during 48-game lockout schedules where they at least played the rest of the conference and much more importantly in each case it's their fifth best season (at least by my metrics). Their 7 & 10 year averages aren't reliant on those seasons, it's merely one of their typical better seasons. McDavid's four 2017-2020 seasons are clustered very close together, at least in my metrics, and would each be Crosby's 4th best (so 4th-7th) and Jagr 7th best (so 7th-10th). So while it seems likely he should end up at or above Crosby's level in peak/prime scoring, we're going to need at least a few more seasons until we can even guess how he might stack up with Jagr's preak/prime scoring.
ADJUSTED PLUS-MINUS & OTHER EVEN STRENGTH DATA
I can't find any "official" adjusted plus-minus data (I believe overpass was the original author of this metric), so I had to use my own. I am familiar with the original methodology used.
Crosby and particularly Jagr are also among the best in the adjusted plus-minus metric. Here's a look at each player's peak, prime and career (for McDavid, it's his career for each) data.
PEAK | | | | | Based | On | Totals | | | Weighted | By | GP |
| AGES | START | END | GP | ON | OFF | ON/OFF | ADJ +/- | APM/GP | ON | OFF | ON/OFF |
Crosby | 18-26 | 2005-06 | 2013-14 | 550 | 1.44 | 1.09 | 1.32 | +221 | +0.40 | 1.44 | 0.92 | 1.57 |
Jagr | 22-35 | 1994-95 | 2006-07 | 880 | 1.43 | 0.89 | 1.61 | +369 | +0.42 | 1.43 | 0.90 | 1.58 |
McDavid | 18-24 | 2015-16 | 2020-21 | 407 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 1.53 | +184 | +0.45 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 1.53 |
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Jagr & Crosby appear very close, but remember the spans chosen have 60% more games played for Jagr than Crosby. They both played at historically high levels, Jagr just did it for much longer.
McDavid is keeping pace so far, he will just need to sustain it for two (vs. Crosby) and increase it for six (vs. Jagr) more seasons to match these legends.
PRIME | | | | | Based | On | Totals | | | Weighted | By | GP |
| AGES | START | END | GP | ON | OFF | ON/OFF | ADJ +/- | APM/GP | ON | OFF | ON/OFF |
Crosby | 18-31 | 2005-06 | 2018-19 | 943 | 1.39 | 0.98 | 1.41 | +301 | +0.32 | 1.39 | 0.97 | 1.43 |
Jagr | 20-35 | 1992-93 | 2006-07 | 1,041 | 1.43 | 0.92 | 1.56 | +417 | +0.40 | 1.43 | 0.90 | 1.58 |
McDavid | 18-24 | 2015-16 | 2020-21 | 407 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 1.53 | +184 | +0.45 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 1.53 |
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As the gap in games played narrows, a substantial gap between Jagr and Crosby appears. The good news for MdDavid is that his on/off ratio could slip significantly over ~7 seasons and still be in Crosby's prime range. He'd need ~8 seasons of increased efficiency to match Jagr's prime though.
CAREER | | | | | Based | On | Totals | | | Weighted | By | GP |
| AGES | START | END | GP | ON | OFF | ON/OFF | ADJ +/- | APM/GP | ON | OFF | ON/OFF |
Crosby | 18-33 | 2005-06 | 2020-21 | 1,039 | 1.35 | 1.01 | 1.34 | +288 | +0.28 | 1.35 | 1.00 | 1.36 |
Jagr | 20-45 | 1990-91 | 2017-18 | 1,733 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.56 | +530 | +0.31 | 1.36 | 0.95 | 1.43 |
McDavid | 18-24 | 2015-16 | 2020-21 | 407 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 1.53 | +184 | +0.45 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 1.53 |
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Jagr's career adjusted plus-minus per game, on ratio & on/off ratio are each around Crosby's prime level, except in over 80% more games. Given how strong Crosby is in ES data, this is very telling.
The key for McDavid will be sustaining and perhaps bettering his ES numbers, and if/when his team improves (and therefore the off ratio increases), will he be able to increase his on ratio in a proportional manner.
PLAYOFF SCORING
It's too early to say much, but McDavid has a lot of work to do. Here's the peak/prime data:
PEAK | | | | | | | | | | Series |
| AGES | START | END | GP | G | A | PTS | PPG | +/- | Won |
Crosby | 19-26 | 2007 | 2013 | 82 | 40 | 65 | 105 | 1.28 | +16 | 10 |
Jagr | 23-36 | 1995 | 2008 | 105 | 56 | 73 | 129 | 1.23 | +31 | 9 |
McDavid | 19-24 | 2017 | 2021 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 1.05 | +2 | 1 |
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PRIME | | | | | | | | | | Series |
| AGES | START | END | GP | G | A | PTS | PPG | +/- | Won |
Crosby | 19-30 | 2007 | 2018 | 154 | 63 | 144 | 177 | 1.15 | +22 | 19 |
Jagr | 20-36 | 1992 | 2008 | 144 | 74 | 94 | 168 | 1.17 | +35 | 15 |
McDavid | 19-24 | 2017 | 2021 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 1.05 | +2 | 1 |
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PLAYOFF PLUS-MINUS DATA
I know there is more detailed playoff ES data, but I was unable to find it with searches.
I used a quick & dirty method for playoff adjusted plus-minus (APM), since I don't have detailed playoff on/off data:
Off PM = (Team PM - Player PM*5)/5 [Here we're deducting the player's effect by multiplying it by 5, the typical number of skaters at ES, then subtracting from team's PM. We now have a total team +/- which we must divide by 5, since again there are typically 5 skaters at ES.]
Adjusted PM = Player PM - (Off PM/2) [We divide that result by 2, because we expect top liners to have ~1/3 of ES ice time or 1/3 of ES scoring events, although that of course is a rough estimate. This gives us an expected PM for the player's ES ice time if that time was replaced/absorbed by the rest of the team. This is how much the player exceeded the expected PM, calculated above as Off PM.]
Since there's many fewer playoff games per season and plus-minus data fluctuates more than does scoring, so I'm just using prime data to get a more reliable sample size that still encompasses the prime years of each player's career.
PRIME | AGES | START | END | GP | +/- | Team +/- | Off +/- | APM | APM/GP | PM/GP |
Crosby | 19-30 | 2007 | 2018 | 160 | +21 | +193 | +18 | +12 | +0.08 | +0.13 |
Jagr | 20-36 | 1992 | 2008 | 145 | +36 | +8 | -34 | +53 | +0.37 | +0.25 |
McDavid | 19-24 | 2017 | 2021 | 21 | +2 | -42 | -10 | +7 | +0.34 | +0.10 |
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Again, these are just very rough, ballpark numbers, but the fundamental data tells you all you need to know: Crosby was +21 on teams that were +193 (+15 on teams that were +105 for his career), while Jagr was +36 on teams what were +8 (+30 on teams that were +52 for his career). Think about that for a few seconds and it's rather obvious the player with a much higher +/- on teams that were dramatically worse was the much more effective ES player. McDavid is off to a pretty good start, being plus on a weak playoff team, but again it's too early for any meaningful comparison.
Conclusion: I don't see any area where McDavid shouldn't be at least competitive with Crosby over time, and there's a very good chance he surpasses him in at least some areas. It's much too early to tell how he will stack up against Jagr's record, but there's not an area where he's hopelessly behind him. It's mostly the playoffs where his data is sparse and relatively unimpressive that is a slight cause for concern at this point.