Confirmed with Link: Weekesbomb: Palat to NJ for five-year deal

[SempreMilan]

Is his nickname Dr. Drej? That one seems obvious.

Omfg

 

[FooteBahl]

This contract runs through 2026-27. Our only other current commitments past next year are Hamilton at $9 million, Hughes $8 million, Hischier $7.25, Mercer $900k, and Brendan Smith just signed at 1.1, as well as other ELCs. Let's say we sign Bratt to a max term deal. Let's estimate high and say he gets the Thomas contract - 8 years, $8 million. We also need to sign Boqvist, Wood, Vanecek, Thompson, and Zetterlund. I forget the exact parameters of what Wood can get in ARB, but that's a 1 year commitment so it's basically meaningless. Boqvist I can see getting $1.5x2 as a player with a decent number of games played at this point. Zetterlund probably more like $1x2, Thompson probably less than that. Let's say Vanecek gets $2.5x2. Let's jump ahead to next offseason.

2023-24
Using our projections from above, we have $39,250,000 committed. We can probably safely assume Foote and Holtz make the team. They will still be on ELCs this year making less than $900k. Other forwards we have to re-sign are Sharangovich, Bastian, McLeod, Tatar, Johnsson, Haula, Wood. Let's say we keep Haula of the 3 UFAs and he get's $2x2 or something. Sharangovich, let's say he plays mostly on Jack's wing again this year and hits 30 goals. We can sign him to a 5 year deal that takes him through 27-28, past when Palat's contract will be gone. Let's say he gets $5.5 million. McLeod and Bastian are probably either non-tendered or sign for around $1 million. Wood is probably gone either because he came back and performed well enough to earn a bigger contract than I want to give him, or he fizzles.

On D, We expect Nemec and Luke will both begin playing on their ELCs this year and expect both to play for NJ. We have Severson, Graves Seigenthaler, Ty smith, and Bahl on expiring contracts. I really don't see a world where Ty Smith fits with us long term so let's assume he's traded for futures or something. Graves walks, Let's say Seigs gets the same defensive D contract that everyone got this offseason of something like 4x$4.25. Let's say Bahl gets 2x$1.2. I think the right move is to keep Severson. Let's say he gets 6x$7.

Impossible to guess what goalie looks like, so I'm just going to budget $5 million each year for that moving forward.
Total commitments: $67,139,000

2024-25
Projections from above, we have about $64,289,000 committed. after B. Smith, Mercer, and Foote all expire. It's tough to project Mercer, but let's assume we sign him to a bridge deal at a $5 aav. Foote maybe costs $2 million unless he is much better than I think he is. ELC D-man +850k. Holtz, again tough to predict but let's say he is good and we want to sign him long-term for $8 million aav.
Total commitments: $72,139.00

2025-26
Using our projections and continuing to just lump goaltending as $5 million, Zetterlund, Boqvist, and Thompson all need to be reupped. We had their contracts pegged at about $3.25 million before, so we have just under $70 million committed. Holtz is also off his ELC going into this year and will likely cost a lot unless he's a bust. At this point I'm less interested in projecting specific contracts as who the hell knows what these guys will be 3 more seasons from now. Point being that this is the year the cap is projected to jump big time and we're still nowhere near it.

2026-27
Now things get dicey as Palat will certainly not be worth his contract, Holtz may be much, much more expensive, and Nemec and Luke are coming off their ELC. At this point we will probably need to dump Palat and one of Severson or Hamilton to re-sign the younger D. But again, the cap should be much higher by this point and the cost to move one year of a $6 million contract won't be a lot. Or LTIR, or whatever. It's not going to be an issue until his last year and then we can just get rid of it. Hamilton will probably be the more costly contract to move.

Again, this isn't a good contract and we can't go around signing more of them every year, but we can basically re-sign every significant piece in our organization and still carry it for 4 of the 5 years. It doesn't matter if you signed Gaudreau, Palat, or whoever, it was always going to be a breeze up until Luke and Nemec come off their ELCs. That's the point where keeping whoever we actually want to keep gets tricky. Before then, we can still add one or more significant players and still keep the ones that are worth it. We will have a number of expendable prospects to trade for additional depth or future picks to replenish as our roster ages and gets more expensive. this contract is a non issue for 4 of the 5 years it exists, and then the 5th year the cap could be over $90 million.

Jesus H. Christ this post is a thing of beauty. Do I have your permission to frame it and put it on my wall?

 

[Nubmer6]

By the time the contract gets to where it could be a problem there is at least some ability to trade him. I'm not really worried about the full NMC years.

Frankly, I expect him to be LTIRed if it comes to that. You can ALWAYS find an excuse for that.

 

[hidek91]

Step 1: Sign FA
Step 2: 2 days later discuss buyout options

Never change people… never change

Most of the long-term UFA signings end up being buyout candidates though, don't they?

 

[MadDevil]

He submits 10 team trade list in season 4 and 5 so he can just pick teams that have no cap space and then he basically can't be traded.

I didn't say it would necessarily be easy, but there is at least an option, unlike the first 3 years. Regardless, how about we wait until we get to that part of the contract before wringing our hands about it?

 

[hidek91]

I didn't say it would necessarily be easy, but there is at least an option, unlike the first 3 years. Regardless, how about we wait until we get to that part of the contract before wringing our hands about it?

Yes, I just said that while this option exists in theory, in practice this could be eliminated by Palat quite easily. Regarding your question, we are just analyzing this signing and in my opinion, the clauses that are included in his contract are important.

 

[HoliksGhost]

I love this move. Worry about years 4&5 when the time comes. What team wouldn’t want Palat on their roster ? Did you nay sayers even watch the playoffs ?

Great addition.

You think players with kids just uproot their family for 3-year deals ?

 

[MachoDiablo]

Man, I go to Chicago for two days and the Devils news flies all hot and heavy. I was sitting around Newark airport Thursday morning and reading through the thread on this signing and watching the collective freakout.

Will say this: it's not a great contract. Signing a dude in his 30s for five years and at a pretty high cap hit isn't exactly "good process", and I'm not usually one to place a ton of value on playoff experience/"intangibles"/some concept of clutch when giving out big money deals...not that they don't matter, but they should not be the priority, overall talent is.

However, despite the process involved I don't think it's a bad signing, either, so long as Fitz doesn't turn it into a habit. Palat is a damn good player, he's brings talents and skills this team could absolutely use, he fills a position of need, those "intangibles" I slightly pooh-poohed do count for something, and I think the whole "he won't be worth the deal!" talk is hyperbolic. Like, will 36 year old Palat be great? Probably not, but if we get three good years out of the guy, put up with a declining fourth year, then cut bait in year five, it's really not a big problem. Beyond that as outlined above I don't really see how having Palat creates a scenario where the Devils can't keep their best young talent moving forward, especially if the cap rises by the amounts many are projecting it will, so yeah, worst case scenario he'll get bought out in year five and it is what it is.

It's honestly just a big part of the territory with free agency, especially if you're not a "destination" team; you want someone for more than a couple of years, be prepared to pony up a bit extra and likely deal with a year or two of the deal that don't really meet the overall value. It'd be great if teams could just sign guys for their prime, but it's not how free agency works, and again it's not like this guy is likely to hamstring us, barring a situation where his body just completely falls apart this year or something.

More than that, between this signing and the additional moves Fitz is making I think it's becoming clear the organization wants to be competitive this year; even if this is not the season where they become a full-on playoff team they pretty clearly wants the young guns getting a taste of what it's like to play important games later in the year and have them prepared and hungry to take the next step. Between that and the fact that teams like Washington, Boston, and maybe Pittsburgh (I'll believe it when I see it) might be on the downswing over the next couple of years, feels safe to say playoffs by '23-'24 seems the goal, and Palat should still be a productive player who'll provide both good play and good leadership as the team's window opens.

 

[FooteBahl]

This contract runs through 2026-27. Our only other current commitments past next year are Hamilton at $9 million, Hughes $8 million, Hischier $7.25, Mercer $900k, and Brendan Smith just signed at 1.1, as well as other ELCs. Let's say we sign Bratt to a max term deal. Let's estimate high and say he gets the Thomas contract - 8 years, $8 million. We also need to sign Boqvist, Wood, Vanecek, Thompson, and Zetterlund. I forget the exact parameters of what Wood can get in ARB, but that's a 1 year commitment so it's basically meaningless. Boqvist I can see getting $1.5x2 as a player with a decent number of games played at this point. Zetterlund probably more like $1x2, Thompson probably less than that. Let's say Vanecek gets $2.5x2. Let's jump ahead to next offseason.

2023-24
Using our projections from above, we have $39,250,000 committed. We can probably safely assume Foote and Holtz make the team. They will still be on ELCs this year making less than $900k. Other forwards we have to re-sign are Sharangovich, Bastian, McLeod, Tatar, Johnsson, Haula, Wood. Let's say we keep Haula of the 3 UFAs and he get's $2x2 or something. Sharangovich, let's say he plays mostly on Jack's wing again this year and hits 30 goals. We can sign him to a 5 year deal that takes him through 27-28, past when Palat's contract will be gone. Let's say he gets $5.5 million. McLeod and Bastian are probably either non-tendered or sign for around $1 million. Wood is probably gone either because he came back and performed well enough to earn a bigger contract than I want to give him, or he fizzles.

On D, We expect Nemec and Luke will both begin playing on their ELCs this year and expect both to play for NJ. We have Severson, Graves Seigenthaler, Ty smith, and Bahl on expiring contracts. I really don't see a world where Ty Smith fits with us long term so let's assume he's traded for futures or something. Graves walks, Let's say Seigs gets the same defensive D contract that everyone got this offseason of something like 4x$4.25. Let's say Bahl gets 2x$1.2. I think the right move is to keep Severson. Let's say he gets 6x$7.

Impossible to guess what goalie looks like, so I'm just going to budget $5 million each year for that moving forward.
Total commitments: $67,139,000

2024-25
Projections from above, we have about $64,289,000 committed. after B. Smith, Mercer, and Foote all expire. It's tough to project Mercer, but let's assume we sign him to a bridge deal at a $5 aav. Foote maybe costs $2 million unless he is much better than I think he is. ELC D-man +850k. Holtz, again tough to predict but let's say he is good and we want to sign him long-term for $8 million aav.
Total commitments: $72,139.00

2025-26
Using our projections and continuing to just lump goaltending as $5 million, Zetterlund, Boqvist, and Thompson all need to be reupped. We had their contracts pegged at about $3.25 million before, so we have just under $70 million committed. Holtz is also off his ELC going into this year and will likely cost a lot unless he's a bust. At this point I'm less interested in projecting specific contracts as who the hell knows what these guys will be 3 more seasons from now. Point being that this is the year the cap is projected to jump big time and we're still nowhere near it.

2026-27
Now things get dicey as Palat will certainly not be worth his contract, Holtz may be much, much more expensive, and Nemec and Luke are coming off their ELC. At this point we will probably need to dump Palat and one of Severson or Hamilton to re-sign the younger D. But again, the cap should be much higher by this point and the cost to move one year of a $6 million contract won't be a lot. Or LTIR, or whatever. It's not going to be an issue until his last year and then we can just get rid of it. Hamilton will probably be the more costly contract to move.

Again, this isn't a good contract and we can't go around signing more of them every year, but we can basically re-sign every significant piece in our organization and still carry it for 4 of the 5 years. It doesn't matter if you signed Gaudreau, Palat, or whoever, it was always going to be a breeze up until Luke and Nemec come off their ELCs. That's the point where keeping whoever we actually want to keep gets tricky. Before then, we can still add one or more significant players and still keep the ones that are worth it. We will have a number of expendable prospects to trade for additional depth or future picks to replenish as our roster ages and gets more expensive. this contract is a non issue for 4 of the 5 years it exists, and then the 5th year the cap could be over $90 million.

You know you’re going to have to completely redo this right? I expect it posted by Monday morning 9am.

 

[glenwo2]

You know you’re going to have to completely redo this right? I expect it posted by Monday morning 9am.

He's aware :

Confirmed with Link: - Devils Acquire John Marino for Ty Smith & a 2023 3rd Round Pick

Why does this mean Severson is going? I know he is UFA next year, but the team clearly want to compete next year. They need three good pairs. I think this was more about cutting bait on Smith and getting value for him. That’s not to say they are going to re-sign Sevs. But I could see them...

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