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GDT: WCQF - Game #2 : Oilers host Kings on May the Fourth be with us @8pm MT | ESPN2, CBC, SN, TVAS, BSSC

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CornKicker

CornKicker

Holland is wrong..except all of the good things
Feb 18, 2005
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the oilers need to score first then keep their foot on the gas. they couldnt have been any more sloppy in the 1st period last game and they still should have won that game. take out all the doubt and get up by 2 or 3 early
 
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CantHaveTkachev

CantHaveTkachev

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Drivesaitl said:
Just to note tickets seem to be on sale today (resales) relative to what they were before series started. Spotted tickets as low as 176bucks today. Some devaluation seems to have occurred. For those inclined to go the asking prices are much lower for game 2. Hopefully people get to see a much better result.
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Kings game haven't sold out yet

 
bone

bone

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Perfect_Drug said:
Right now, I think our chance to win this series is 25%.
If we win tonight, it goes back up to 50%.
If we lose tonight, it's likely 0%.




You know, we outplayed the Jets last year too. Infact we LEAD most of those games.
We mostly outplayed the Hawks too.

The problem (just like the last 2 times) is they have the better goalie, and we lack the ability to 'lock it down'.


Even if we win this series, this is likely the only series we have a chance at winning (and its a slim chance at best). We are FAR FAR away from being a cup contender by virtue of having the worst goalie in the playoffs.
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Based on historical data with us being the home team we're 42.4% right now, ignoring home team bias, currently 31.4%. If we win tonight 55.4% with home team bias, lose tonight, 18.9%.

Lose tonight, but win Friday 38.0%, lose both 1.8%.

Granted historical data suggest the home team is better and sometimes by a large margin, so actual odds probably drop a little since these teams are a bit closer.


So tonight's tonight's pretty important.
 
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Drivesaitl

Drivesaitl

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bone said:
Based on historical data with us being the home team we're 42.4% right now. If we win tonight 55.4%, lose tonight, 18.9%.

Lose tonight, but win Friday 38.0%, lose both 1.8%.

Granted historical data suggest the home team is better and sometimes by a large margin, so actual odds probably drop a little since these teams are a bit closer.

So tonight's tonight's pretty important.
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Whats the data on teams that struggle in the playoffs losing game 1 at home in a first round? heh. At the moment the odds probably aren't great, but if the Oilers win tonight I could see people saying 50/50. I wouldn't bet on it.
 
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Perfect_Drug

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bone said:
Based on historical data with us being the home team we're 42.4% right now. If we win tonight 55.4%, lose tonight, 18.9%.

Lose tonight, but win Friday 38.0%, lose both 1.8%.

Granted historical data suggest the home team is better and sometimes by a large margin, so actual odds probably drop a little since these teams are a bit closer.

So tonight's tonight's pretty important.
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There's all kinds of data.
But we know what we have in Smith, and they know what they have in Quick.

Quick is a better goalie than Smith. Even if the stats don't back it, we know what Quick is and what he can do. We know what Smith isn't and what he can't do.


This isn't based on historical data, or eye-test nonsense.


Quick can win this series for LA. Smith can NOT win this series for us.
 
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destro909

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bone

bone

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Drivesaitl said:
Whats the data on teams that struggle in the playoffs losing game 1 at home in a first round? heh. At the moment the odds probably aren't great, but if the Oilers win tonight I could see people saying 50/50. I wouldn't bet on it.
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I doubt there's any way to find that data. I believe the odds right now are less, but if they win tonight, I'd go with long term history instead of short term as I think it's in their heads right now. Getting even a single win could flick that switch which would allow them to play to their potential. Especially if they win the right way tonight and not rely on something flukey themselves.
 
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Drivesaitl

Drivesaitl

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McSpecial DraiBlend said:
Nice work.
I'm not too worried. We outplayed them first game and deserved to win. Smith needs to dumb it down a bit.
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One could call it mostly even at best. Kings had a slight edge in play. By no means did we outplay the Kings or deserve to W. We never lead, we trailed most of the game, and by as many as the first 2 goals. It isn't a recipe for success and teams going down 2-0 at home, in a playoff game certainly do not deserve to win. jmo

Game wasn't like Winnipeg. In game one we got the benefit of 3 questionable penalty calls, we got McD cross checking and Drai slashing Durzi legs while going to the bench. No calls on either, and the shot count was even despite the Oilers having a better PP

The EV scoreline was 4-1 Kings btw. Which in playoffs is usually more of a barometer of how things go. The Oilers benefit from a lot of calls. They hope the whistles keep blowing. In playoffs, sometimes they don't. Kings carved us 5 on 5.
 
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