Confirmed Signing with Link: [VAN] Thatcher Demko signs extension with the Canucks (5 years, $5M AAV)

[jackjohnson]

Benning proving again that he is not a good GM

If you think this Demko deal proves Benning is a bad GM, then you should really not talk about any GMs lol

 

[Fatass]

When Benning let Marky walk this past off season, he had to sign Demko to term. Benning is hoping Demko continues to be Bubble Boy and be great, which makes this a great value deal. I’m just wondering if Ian Clark stays as goalie coach.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

You wont get him for 5 million for 5 years if he signs a 1 year deal plus I dont think he will agree to a 1 year deal. What message does that send Demko?

"Hey, you want $5 million per? Go out and play really well and earn it." Instead, you just sent a message to every other young player in the organization: "have some hype behind you, play well for a small stint and we'll open up the checkbook and fork out a massive wad of cash."

you are not sure that he is the number 1 goalie on this team??

I'm sure he's been the #1 goalie on this team for about 3 months. Shall I start rattling off the names of young, supposedly talented goalies throughout NHL history who were #1 goalies for 3 months and didn't go on to show off all their supposed talent?

Have you seen any goalies as young as Demko be signed to a 1 year deal after having a great season?

First, let's see him have a "great season" that's not solely based on some esoteric fancy statistic. I have seen goalies as young as Demko who've proven about as much as he has with as much hype as I'm being told he has get inked to big contracts - say, 4 years and $17.4 million - on the illusion that they'll go on to great things without ever having done great things to begin with, while they still have a year on their existing deals.

I leave it to you to research how those generally turned out.

Again that is the reason why people here would never be GMs.

I can think of dozens of reasons people here will never be GMs. What you claim wouldn't make my list if I spent a year doing nothing but putting a list of those reasons together.

Demko could very well refuse to sign another deal and move to a different team if he had to sign a 1 year low ball offer to prove himself to the organization after being with the Canucks for multiple years already.

He could. He could not. You don't know. I don't know. If you're that scared your guy is going to jump that you have to overpay to keep it from happening, perhaps you should find a safer line of work where there's less risk. Or - just work with me here - talk to him, explain your thinking, let him know he can earn a bigger paycheck down the road and you're totally fine with writing it ... if he earns it.

 

[generalshepherd141]

This dude's debut against Vegas was crazy last year. His excellence this season is no surprise to anyone who saw those games.

 

[TheNumber4]

Goalies are voodoo. Won’t be surprised to see the Nucks trying to get rid of this contract within 3 years. Still though much better than 6x6M for Markstrom lol.

 

[BCNate]

Decide how much you were willing to wager, let me know how you want to pay it.


I've said multiple times I didn't see a need to rush into 5/25 with 2 years left until he hit UFA. Why is that so freaking hard to understand? Why must it be the case that well Canucks fans think it's a great deal, so it's a great deal and everyone who disagrees is nuts? Is it freaking hard to think about it for 15 seconds and realize "hey, yeah, I'm thrilled with this contract but I can understand the logic behind waiting another 4 months and then signing him to a long-term contract?"

But do you honestly think that the 15-16 starts remaining for him this year were going to significantly swing the dollars/term? There was going to be the same element of risk either way. I get the small sample size, but the reality is that buying 4 UFA years for one of the top 25YO and under goalies was going to cost a fair amount. One side is going to say he doesn't even have 75 NHL starts, this is a huge risk and the other side is going to say that he has played his way into the Vezina conversation (top 5ish in votes) in his first season as a starter and has shown that he can get hot enough to single handedly keep us in a playoff series. Neither side is wrong.

I am pretty certain of a couple things
-There was an $ amount that Benning would be willing to sign Sutter and Pearson for next year. I think Demko's deal makes this impossible, and now they get dealt if there is a market for them.
-They 100% wanted to lock up Demko before getting into negotiations with Hughes/EP. I feel they will be the easier ones to sign, as there are much clearer comparables.
-This offseason is critical to the Canucks moving forward, but also will be very condensed, Benning wanted to get a jump on it. This was a very good start.

 

[GOilers88]

To be fair if there's one area the Canucks have been really solid in for the last 15 years it's recognizing goaltender talent.

I think this will work out just fine.

 

[CpatainCanuck]

I like the deal; but goaltenders are hard to predict. Demko could potentially become a perennial Vezina candidate or fall off for some reason at a young age ala Matt Murray or Carter Hart.

It's a gamble, but one I'm ok with the Canucks making.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

But do you honestly think that the 15-16 starts remaining for him this year were going to significantly swing the dollars/term? There was going to be the same element of risk either way. I get the small sample size, but the reality is that buying 4 UFA years for one of the top 25YO and under goalies was going to cost a fair amount.

(sigh) If you're going to buy 3 years of UFA [not 4; he's 25 now and would be RFA; 21-22 would be one year and he'd be 26 and still RFA; 22-23 would be the second year and then he would be UFA], then yes - that has a cost. For the 117th time: did the Canucks really need to do that right now? Could Benning really not wait a year and see if Demko is as outstanding as everyone thinks and then commit money - even if it cost a little more to do so? That question is really kind of important if, as you mention, it ends up costing them Sutter or Pearson.

I don't know how many times I have to keep saying this: I don't care if the Canucks want to lob 5/25 at their goalie of the future because of all his alleged talent, potential, hype, pedigree, ancestry, whatever else. Their decision, great - they're happy about it, I'm happy for them. I wouldn't have done it, I think it's premature, I would have asked for more results before lobbing $5 million at anyone, but if someone else wants to do it on more than a feeling I say if it feels good, just do it.

One side is going to say he doesn't even have 75 NHL starts, this is a huge risk and the other side is going to say that he has played his way into the Vezina conversation (top 5ish in votes) in his first season as a starter and has shown that he can get hot enough to single handedly keep us in a playoff series. Neither side is wrong.

1. Whoa, let's see that top-5 finish in Vezina voting first. Right now, he's got a career 0 total votes for anything.
2. He's been hot enough to "single handedly keep us in a playoff series" once. A whopping total of 3 games, for 0 playoff series wins. Jordan Binnington has been hot enough to win 4 playoff series as part of winning a Stanley Cup once. One of those two is getting lauded for a 25-game sample this season for single-handedly keeping his team from getting buried in the basement of the Scotia North as reason for why he should get 5/25, the other is getting trashed for a 25-game sample this season for struggling on a team that's been wildly inconsistent, injury-plagued and defensively poor as reason for why he shouldn't have gotten 6/36.

HFBoards, 200X - present: where unknown, untapped potential is always more important than actual results.

-They 100% wanted to lock up Demko before getting into negotiations with Hughes/EP. I feel they will be the easier ones to sign, as there are much clearer comparables.

There were comparables for Demko. Benning ignored every last one of them when he doled out this contract. Hughes is already quite arguably a top-15 defender in the league with (considerable?) upside yet to realize. Pettersson has been a nearly point-per-game player and already had Hart votes last season. Both of them are going to ask why they should get indexed to "much clearer comparables" seeing as how they've got as much or more potential and have done significantly more in their time in the league.

 

[vanarchy]

No problems with this whatsoever. Hopefully Jimbo's parting gift.

 

[lawrence]

I say take the risk
He'll have what? The 13th highest Cap Hit next year.
so average price for a starter.

he had a strong negotiating leverage considering the Canucks defense is, not good.
Here he is right now

His leverage includes him becoming a ufa in 2022 where he would have gotten more then 5 million per. How ?

outside offers bro. It’s so easy to dump on other teams transactions without thinking what both sides had to deal with.

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

Great deal all around. Goaltending for Vancouver will be the least of the worries going forward and they are poised after next season to really make a play if handled correctly.

 

[Lenerdosy]

Now if we can sign Ian Clarke....

 

[Sinistril]

(sigh) If you're going to buy 3 years of UFA [not 4; he's 25 now and would be RFA; 21-22 would be one year and he'd be 26 and still RFA; 22-23 would be the second year and then he would be UFA], then yes - that has a cost. For the 117th time: did the Canucks really need to do that right now? Could Benning really not wait a year and see if Demko is as outstanding as everyone thinks and then commit money - even if it cost a little more to do so? That question is really kind of important if, as you mention, it ends up costing them Sutter or Pearson.

I don't know how many times I have to keep saying this: I don't care if the Canucks want to lob 5/25 at their goalie of the future because of all his alleged talent, potential, hype, pedigree, ancestry, whatever else. Their decision, great - they're happy about it, I'm happy for them. I wouldn't have done it, I think it's premature, I would have asked for more results before lobbing $5 million at anyone, but if someone else wants to do it on more than a feeling I say if it feels good, just do it.


1. Whoa, let's see that top-5 finish in Vezina voting first. Right now, he's got a career 0 total votes for anything.
2. He's been hot enough to "single handedly keep us in a playoff series" once. A whopping total of 3 games, for 0 playoff series wins. Jordan Binnington has been hot enough to win 4 playoff series as part of winning a Stanley Cup once. One of those two is getting lauded for a 25-game sample this season for single-handedly keeping his team from getting buried in the basement of the Scotia North as reason for why he should get 5/25, the other is getting trashed for a 25-game sample this season for struggling on a team that's been wildly inconsistent, injury-plagued and defensively poor as reason for why he shouldn't have gotten 6/36.

HFBoards, 200X - present: where unknown, untapped potential is always more important than actual results.


There were comparables for Demko. Benning ignored every last one of them when he doled out this contract. Hughes is already quite arguably a top-15 defender in the league with (considerable?) upside yet to realize. Pettersson has been a nearly point-per-game player and already had Hart votes last season. Both of them are going to ask why they should get indexed to "much clearer comparables" seeing as how they've got as much or more potential and have done significantly more in their time in the league.

Why would he need a top-5 finish in Vezina voting to be offered a 5/25 contract again? It's an average contract suggesting he just needs to be an average NHL starter, which he appears to be with enough upside in his game that he could eventually develop into an elite goaltender. Hughes and Pettersson's contracts are not going to be impacted by paying Demko. If the negotiations were to revolve around contracts previously signed by Benning, then Myers or Eriksson's contracts would be bigger gotcha's for Hughes and Pettersson come negotiation time.

 

[thadd]

Yeah but he is better than Markstrom at 6×6 who is on a decline.

Not only that, but really under a flat cap... I'm not sure there are 5 goalies I'd want to sign to over 6M. Maybe Markstrom turns things around this year or next to make that contract look solid. He ain't no fluke. He came into the NHL and improved gradually every year. Not only that, but before he came to North America he had a huge hype train behind him. Not like he's someone who came out of nowhere and just had 1 solid season in the NHL before landing that huge contract.

That's just an uninformed take.

He's been incredible for a large percentage of the last 30 games he has played, has pedigree, and is flat out a good goalie. Listen to the way that players talk about him. This isn't an Andrew Hammond lightening strike.

This is also how teams become great. By investing in a player at a relatively low number right as he hits his big ascension.

I'm not comparing them at all, but Nate Mackinnon is on the best contract in the league because of a decision like this.

Something could go wrong, and the contract could not end up working out, but I don't see that happening.

And as someone who has watched every NHL game he has played, this is a good gamble knowing what we know now.

With a flat cap, it really isn't. Until the economy recovers, the owners get their $$$ back and the cap goes back up; this is going to be a hard contract to swallow unless Demko is contending for the Vesina.

Yeah. As it stands right now, he'll go into next season T-12 among goalies on cap hit and salary. On 59 career starts, and 3 career playoff starts which has as much long-term meaning as Andrew Hammond's first 23 regular season starts of his career.

If he performs well, sure - then he's worth that kind of money and it's perhaps a steal. After 59 career regular season starts, in a season where you might not make the playoffs? Send him to arbitration this summer, let him argue what he wants there, take a 1-year deal, see how it goes. If he plays great, sure - you can do 5/25 then.

Otherwise, you know who loves seeing this? Ilya Samsonov, Vitek Vanecek, Kevin Lankinen, Kaapo Kahkonen and any other goalie who's kind of taken over as their team's #1 and who wins a playoff round or two. They do that, they'll walk into arbitration with their record and point to Demko's contract and career marks and say that's what the Canucks gave to someone who's done less, I'm worth at least that. It might be good potential value for the Canucks; it's a nightmare for every other GM who'll have a young, also talented goalie who'll do as much or more and elect arbitration.

I'm really curious whether the team could convince an arbiter that a player is worth less when there's a flat cap.

The opposite is doing what your team has done for years, how well has that worked again?

Oh you mean when we make decisions that instantly blow up in our faces? LOL It's going great!
Incoming: Hopkins 7M = 6 years when he isn't worth a penny over 5 regardless of whether the cap his flat.

lol cause all the experienced goalie contracts work out great

Holy CoW!

Yeah at the same time I'm not suggesting that going out and overpaying free agents is worth it.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Nothing wrong with $5m for a really good young goalie.

Nice signing.

 

[JTmillerForA1stLOL]

I'm good with this. Benning is a hack but I'm ok with the risk vs reward here.

 

[sting101]

Goalies are voodoo. Won’t be surprised to see the Nucks trying to get rid of this contract within 3 years. Still though much better than 6x6M for Markstrom lol.

what are some examples of good ones?

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Decide how much you were willing to wager, let me know how you want to pay it.


I've said multiple times I didn't see a need to rush into 5/25 with 2 years left until he hit UFA. Why is that so freaking hard to understand? Why must it be the case that well Canucks fans think it's a great deal, so it's a great deal and everyone who disagrees is nuts? Is it freaking hard to think about it for 15 seconds and realize "hey, yeah, I'm thrilled with this contract but I can understand the logic behind waiting another 4 months and then signing him to a long-term contract?"

How many games of his have you watched? I'm not baiting, I'm honestly asking.

And to the latter, I can see your perspective, I just don't think it fits here.

1. We need cost certainty. We have Hughes and Petey up for new contracts at the end of this year. Demko is coming off of a contract that paid him just over a million dollars. His play this year has moved the conversation from, "Oh man, we have to figure out how to sign Hughes and Petey...oh, and Demko", and into, "A core player at every position is RFA at the end of this year. We need to figure this out".

2. Demko is arbitration eligible. He could just sign contracts short term (For cheaper) that walk him directly into UFA status. Or he could sign here long term, but if we wait, it will be for more.

So in your scenario we, what wait an extra couple of months and hope he shits the bed so that we can eke out a 500k lower cap hit per year?

Or, we build good will by negotiating earnestly and betting on him. Signing him to a contract that allows us to pay Demko and Horvat the same amount that Bobrovsky makes?

Again, I'm a measure twice cut once type of person in many ways. But there are times when opportunity knocks and if you don't answer, you are remiss.

I'm not saying it's impossible that you end up being correct and this blows up in our face. I'm saying, given what we have seen and what we know, this is a good gamble. If it goes poorly, I will sink with that ship.

 

[Oddbob]

I think that's a great deal. He proved he could win the playoffs, he's proving it again this year.

Goalies are kinda voodoo but if he turns into a strong #1, this is a good contract right through his prime.

He proved he can win in the playoffs with all of 4 (3 starts) games under his belt?

 

[Oddbob]

Anyone thinks Demko is just on a hot steak, they don't watch him.

He had one of the best playoff performances in history and is an extremely technical goaltender. The fact Canucks have him locked up while he's young is a major win at this cap hit.

3 starts does not make one of the best playoff performances in playoff history and not even close to that.

 

[BruinsBtn]

He proved he can win in the playoffs with all of 4 (3 starts) games under his belt?

Did he have a 48-save shutout?

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Why would he need a top-5 finish in Vezina voting to be offered a 5/25 contract again? It's an average contract suggesting he just needs to be an average NHL starter, which he appears to be with enough upside in his game that he could eventually develop into an elite goaltender. Hughes and Pettersson's contracts are not going to be impacted by paying Demko. If the negotiations were to revolve around contracts previously signed by Benning, then Myers or Eriksson's contracts would be bigger gotcha's for Hughes and Pettersson come negotiation time.

He doesn't need a Vezina for 5/25, but ... look, try reading the 2 posts that led up to yours and see if you can understand the point I was making. 5/25 is a median price for an NHL starter. With all that pedigree, you should aspire for more.

If you don't think Hughes and Pettersson just watched a teammate get handed a rich contract for comparatively little and aren't going to ask for their similar pound of flesh in negotiations, you haven't paid attention to NHL contract negotiations over the ... ever.

 

[Big Empty]

I love this contract for the Canucks. Demko is a beast and to get him at 5M long term is great.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

How many games of his have you watched? I'm not baiting, I'm honestly asking.

Are we going back to college? Probably 3 dozen. [Thanks, past employers for letting me go to conferences back in the Northeast.] Post-college? Probably a dozen.

1. We need cost certainty. We have Hughes and Petey up for new contracts at the end of this year. Demko is coming off of a contract that paid him just over a million dollars. His play this year has moved the conversation from, "Oh man, we have to figure out how to sign Hughes and Petey...oh, and Demko", and into, "A core player at every position is RFA at the end of this year. We need to figure this out".

You want cost certainty, and for that you wrote a $5 million per check for a goalie on top of what you'll have to write for Hughes and Pettersson, which is probably going to price out a few supplemental pieces on that roster. OK.

2. Demko is arbitration eligible. He could just sign contracts short term (For cheaper) that walk him directly into UFA status. Or he could sign here long term, but if we wait, it will be for more.

He could. Might. Maybe. Perhaps. But, you don't know. You didn't try to find out. You panicked over maybe he'll ____ and forked over a wad of dough to guard against it.

So in your scenario we, what wait an extra couple of months and hope he shits the bed so that we can eke out a 500k lower cap hit per year?

In my scenario, you wait a couple of extra months and see how he does, then decide what you want to do. He's RFA for 2 more years. You couldn't say "hey, let's do a 1-year deal at $2.5 million, show us you're worth more and we'll cut the check?" You don't see a pretty girl who's supposedly really nice, she kisses you on the lips, and you run to Jared's and drop $7500 on a ring for her and rush to the altar without knowing if she's really as nice as you've been told or if she's really a psychotic bitch. At least date her longer than it was love at first sight at the hors d'oeuvres bar, and she ate an olive I had in my drink.

Or, we build good will by negotiating earnestly and betting on him. Signing him to a contract that allows us to pay Demko and Horvat the same amount that Bobrovsky makes?

Bobrovsky got $10 million per on the backs of a pair of Vezina wins + 3 other top-10 finishes. Yes, it was an asinine contract, but one can at least connect some dots and see how a track record of high-level performance on a mid-level might be valued by some team around the league. It's not like he was 28-13-8, 2.59, .915 and 7th in Calder Trophy voting and someone decided that looks fantastic - let's drop 7/45 on him in case he thinks about ever walking away.

Again, I'm a measure twice cut once type of person in many ways. But there are times when opportunity knocks and if you don't answer, you are remiss.

This is kind of funny given the situation you're arguing about.

I'm not saying it's impossible that you end up being correct and this blows up in our face. I'm saying, given what we have seen and what we know, this is a good gamble. If it goes poorly, I will sink with that ship.

You think it's a good gamble. Great! I'm happy for you! Hope it works out too! I don't get why you're so agitated that I'm disagreeing with you, to the point you've fired off I don't know how many responses complaining about my disagreeing.