I love how 25 starts over one season and 59 for a career suddenly makes a goalie "arguably top-15 in his position" because the 25 this season were in aggregate pretty good, where the 34 prior to that were ... not as good. If he's more Jonathan Quick than Andrei Vasilevskiy next season, I look forward to seeing recency bias in action and hearing about how he's barely a top-30 goalie.
His 3 5th-place votes, his 16 votes for Lady Byng (including 3 1st's), his 3 3rd-place votes for NHL All-Star ... all in his 2nd year in the league. Oh, and his Calder Trophy win the year prior which he built on last season.
Tkachuk has one (1) season where he's been close to point-per game, and has never picked up votes for anything other than the Calder.
Svechnikov is still on his ELC, his best season still isn't as good as Pettersson's worst, and he's also never picked up votes for anything other than the Calder.
Heiskanen is still on his ELC, his best season is still 18 points shy of Hughes on arguably a better team with a better defense, the difference between him and Hughes in Norris Trophy voting is a 4th instead of a 5th, and Hughes is outproducing him this season.
Makar is also on his ELC; he's the only guy on the list who's better and no one knows what his next contract will be.
The 3 Russian RFA goalies, ... going to guess we're talking about Samsonov, Shesterkin and Sorokin since you didn't name any of them and these are the 3 closest that fit. Not the 3 young goalies I'd have picked on, but OK - let's roll with it.
-- Samsonov is on his ELC and was tabbed as the #1 guy in Washington; he's got 6 fewer wins in 26 fewer career starts, a better career GAA and SV% and was a 1st-round pick in 2015 which suggests "he's got a really high pedigree" - like, higher than Demko. Courtesy of the Demko contract, Samsonov is going to lick his chops this offseason.
-- Shesterkin is also on his ELC, seized the #1 spot when Lundqvist faltered last season, has been flat outstanding for the Rangers and by most accounts better than Demko this season, and again courtesy of Demko is going to make more this offseason should he elect for arbitration. He's sure as hell going to make more than Georgiev, the clear #2 who's making $2.4 million this year.
-- Why Sorokin would be here, I have no f***ing clue. He isn't supposed to be the #1 for the Islanders now, and he's certainly not going to have any kind of track record to log a big contract even in arbitration this summer unless something happens to Varlamov.
You're not very good at this.
Most people also realize after 2-3 years and 150+ games, you've got a pretty good read on what a guy is going to do and so lobbing a contract at that point at least gives you some kind of a decent track record to work with. Apparently highly-touted goalies are different.
You keep talking about the upside risk, like there's no downside risk or the downside risk is so remote it's negligible and the upside risk is practically certain.
The cap isn't going up for a couple years. By then, we'll all have an idea of what to expect ... and, in the meantime, you could try him out for another year and make sure he's a better shot to realize that upside, instead of just constantly he's got upside, he might really hit it, we gotta protect ourselves just in case.
There are no words to express how little sense this makes.