Confirmed with Link: [VAN/NYI] Canucks acquire F Anthony Beauvillier, F Aatu Raty, Conditional 1st in ‘23 or ‘24 for F Bo Horvat (25% Retention) - Part II

[iceburg]

Yes obviously. The more new information the better.

Arguing deals signed during peak pandemic are the norm seem foolish. The nhl has released cap projections. It’s going up.

~10% is pretty lock step with what this type of player is worth on the market.

Duchene, Ryan Johansen, Hertl….

Florida based ….ie Brayden Point!!!!!

already edited the post. Yeah both FLA players make more than Horvat...the only two. That kinda seems to undermine your argument.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Saw this tweet not sure how accurate it is haven't checked it, but if true very interesting....

 

[racerjoe]

Yes obviously. The more new information the better.

Arguing deals signed during peak pandemic are the norm seem foolish. The nhl has released cap projections. It’s going up.

~10% is pretty lock step with what this type of player is worth on the market.

Duchene, Ryan Johansen, Hertl….

Florida based ….ie Brayden Point!!!!!

And horvat makes more than Duchene, and Hertl on cap % at time of signing.

I also think Duchesne and Johansen were better players.

 

[4Twenty]

already edited the post. Yeah both FLA players make more than Horvat...the only two. That kinda seems to undermine your argument.

Really?

My argument is those two numbers should be closer to Mackinnon’s $12.6m than Horvat’s $8.5m.

If they were $8.5m would not be providing this “sticker” shock.


People wanting a bargain liked the Trochek comparable. I don’t think any nhl team would favour Trochek over Horvat. Not Copp either.

What do you folks think Dylan Larkin is signing for?

 

[Gurn]

A very good year..?...Bo had 52 points last year in 70 games (tied with Conor Garland for 4th and 5th in team scoring)...Thats not even close to being worthy of justifying $8.5M a season .

If there was ever a case of a player getting a whopping contract over a single outlier year..This has to be it...He's hit the jackpot in that regard..If he had hit free agency, he would have gotten the same money .

Very few people are dissing Horvat..An honest hockey player, and a genuine person.

On this team, that is a good year.

 

[4Twenty]

And horvat makes more than Duchene, and Hertl on cap % at time of signing.

I also think Duchesne and Johansen were better players.

You’re going to hate this….since Bo entered the league 18….only 18 players have more goals than him.


Do you think it’s at all possible you underrated this because you’re over exposed to it?

Ryan Johansen was scoring 7-15 goals a season at the time of his extension. I guess you don’t value goals?

Duchene shifted to wing.


In and around 10% of the cap is normal for this kind of player.

Edit* I’ll correct this. I had it set to sort centres. He’s 19th for centre’s and 34th for forwards.

 

[vancityluongo]

… and his goal scoring isn’t a one-season thing. He was tracking for 37 goals last year which would have put him top-20 in the league if he didn’t get hurt late.

This insistence that Bo Horvat is still the 2018 version 55-point 2nd line C reminds me of how like half this board was still pegging Chris Tanev as a #5 tops with a bad shot when he was in like his 2nd or 3rd year of playing top-pairing shutdown minutes.

Bo Horvat is a better player than Tomas Hertl and got the same contract.

Are you factoring in point/scoring inflation - ie. there were 12 centers in 2018 above a PPG and there were 20 last season? At 0.74 P/GP last season, Bo was tied for 46th amongst centers with Ryan Strome and Andrew Copp. He was 42nd in 2018, sandwiched between Ryan Spooner (lol) and Nazem Kadri.

Not sure where you're getting top-20 scorer from either - he was 17th in goals per game amongst centers with more than 25 games played, and 42nd in the league, behind Adrian Kempe and tied with Dylan Larkin. Guys like Troy Terry and Brock Nelson scored 37 goals without playing a full season.

31 players were pacing to score more than 40 goals last season, and 17 of them did. 13 were on pace and 8 actually did in 2018.

Bo might have increased his absolute totals, but that was only with pace with the rest of the league.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

On this team, that is a good year.

The last 3 years , he's been 3rd or 4th in scoring on the team...With Boudreau's run and gun system Horvat has had a real spike in his offence...

 

[CherryToke]

Saw this tweet not sure how accurate it is haven't checked it, but if true very interesting....

Except Palffy actually did it playing for the Islanders. What a ridiculous tweet..

They're in for a real shock if they expect Palffy.. that dude was a phenom. Scoring 90 points with bums like Travis Green as his support

 

[racerjoe]

You’re going to hate this….since Bo entered the league 18….only 18 players have more goals than him.


Do you think it’s at all possible you underrated this because you’re over exposed to it?

Ryan Johansen was scoring 7-15 goals a season at the time of his extension. I guess you don’t value goals?

Duchene shifted to wing.


In and around 10% of the cap is normal for this kind of player.

Edit* I’ll correct this. I had it set to sort centres. He’s 19th for centre’s and 34th for forwards.

That bad Ryan Johansen season you are talking about he still scored the same points as Bo's career high.

You know why that ends up being a bad skewed stat right? It takes out all the players who either were ending the career in that time, or the players who were just starting and isn't accurate for where he really ranks... now. Just like I asked do you think he finishes top 10 in goals this season.

 

[iceburg]

Really?

My argument is those two numbers should be closer to Mackinnon’s $12.6m than Horvat’s $8.5m.

If they were $8.5m would not be providing this “sticker” shock.


People wanting a bargain liked the Trochek comparable. I don’t think any nhl team would favour Trochek over Horvat. Not Copp either.

What do you folks think Dylan Larkin is signing for?

You're not getting an argument from me. Braydon Point should get paid more, a lot more, than Horvat. He has about the same number of goals and assists in 156 fewer games. Should he get closer to MacKinnon? Possibly. But, as I've said previously, these players are in a different tier as the following career numbers nicely demonstrate.

Career g-a-pt/g

Horvat 0.32-0.35-0.68

Point 0.42-0.47-0.91

MacKinnon 0.38-0.66-1.04


As an aside, arguing that a player (Horvat) is getting paid appropriately because you don't think you're comp (Point) is getting paid enough isn't a strong argument. You kinda have to use the number he gets paid or argue that he's not a good comp.

 

[4Twenty]

That bad Ryan Johansen season you are talking about he still scored the same points as Bo's career high.

You know why that ends up being a bad skewed stat right? It takes out all the players who either were ending the career in that time, or the players who were just starting and isn't accurate for where he really ranks... now. Just like I asked do you think he finishes top 10 in goals this season.

Ryan Johansen went 5 consecutive seasons in his prime with 15 goals or less.

You're not getting an argument from me. Braydon Point should get paid more, a lot more, than Horvat. He has about the same number of goals and assists in 156 fewer games. Should he get closer to MacKinnon? Possibly. But, as I've said previously, these players are in a different tier as the following career numbers nicely demonstrate.

Career g-a-pt/g

Horvat 0.32-0.35-0.68

Point 0.42-0.47-0.91

MacKinnon 0.38-0.66-1.04


As an aside, arguing that a player (Horvat) is getting paid appropriately because you don't think you're comp (Point) is getting paid enough isn't a strong argument. You kinda have to use the number he gets paid or argue that he's not a good comp.

My argument is out there. You can disagree or not.

10% of the cap or thereabouts is his value.

What do you think Larkin gets?

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Except Palffy actually did it playing for the Islanders. What a ridiculous tweet..

They're in for a real shock if they expect Palffy.. that dude was a phenom. Scoring 90 points with bums like Travis Green as his support

Bo did it playing on the Canucks

But I agree Palffy was a better scorer overall, but still an interesting stat just maybe not expect the same probably, but Bo is still a good player just not that explosive.

 

[drax0s]

You’re going to hate this….since Bo entered the league 18….only 18 players have more goals than him.

What a weirdly limited subsection of stats. Like clearly superior players like Point, Eichel, Rantanen, Tkachuk, etc are beneath Horvat if you look at things based on "number of goals since he entered the league" while they've all played much fewer games and are better players.

Would be more interested in seeing his points per game than whether or not he was rushed into the league as a 19 year old.

 

[iceburg]

You’re going to hate this….since Bo entered the league 18….only 18 players have more goals than him.


Do you think it’s at all possible you underrated this because you’re over exposed to it?

Ryan Johansen was scoring 7-15 goals a season at the time of his extension. I guess you don’t value goals?

Duchene shifted to wing.


In and around 10% of the cap is normal for this kind of player.

Edit* I’ll correct this. I had it set to sort centres. He’s 19th for centre’s and 34th for forwards.

What a strange stat to choose. It's like me saying 70 active players have more career goals than him and 106 have more career points...it's meaningless. Are you saying he's a better player than Jack Hughes? Because that's what it implies.

Ryan Johansen went 5 consecutive seasons in his prime with 15 goals or less.





My argument is out there. You can disagree or not.

10% of the cap or thereabouts is his value.

What do you think Larkin gets?

Larkin's agent will argue he should get Horvat money. We'll see. Make no doubt about it, every agent will be pointing to Horvat's deal because it's higher$$/value than most other contracts.

 

[racerjoe]

Ryan Johansen went 5 consecutive seasons in his prime with 15 goals or less.





My argument is out there. You can disagree or not.

10% of the cap or thereabouts is his value.

What do you think Larkin gets?

And how many season did Johansen have better pts? Where was he ranked in pts in each season?

Larkin also has 3 season of more points than Horvats best season. You could easily also argue he has been played on a team with less firepower, and less chance to score.

 

[4Twenty]

And how many season did Johansen have better pts? Where was he ranked in pts in each season?

Larkin also has 3 season of more points than Horvats best season. You could easily also argue he has been played on a team with less firepower, and less chance to score.

I value goals more than assists.

I don’t know the answer to your questions about Johansen. You prefer him as a player I’d expect you to know.

Horvat the better goal scorer. RyJo the better assister.

Can you answer the Larkin question? Or no?

I’m really intrigued to hear from you how much and why?

Cheers.

 

[theguardianII]

Horvat is gone.

He got a very very good contract with a WINNING team.

Even if he signed for 6.5 mil a year here how would that change the team? They are still a bottom feeder.

There is no magic pill that would turn back time or make every player have a career year every year.

IMO forget everything about the group on the ice now. From Horvat's trade forward there should be more changes, big ones yet to come and there will always be regrets of some sort.

Could you imagine if/when Hughes dealt! Catastrophe, Disaster, DOOM.
Even if they got 3 players back, 3 young defencemen that are all better than any on the team now. Plus a 1rst. Why would it matter if that came back? The team is losing with him, not just a little bit but miles behind a lot of teams.

Both these players/assets can be packaged for even better players/assets especially now that there is cap space.

 

[Jyrki]

The contract isn't bad when you consider the Isles should get prime years for most of the deal. It's a big gamble for sure but not a desperate one like Miller's.

Even if Bo's prime is just a 50-60 points player that's still a 30/30 center who's amazing at faceoffs and impactful without the puck offensively. His two-way play is overrated and he can be a laborious skater, but he's not a turnover machine and he'll be supported by a much stronger defense in the Isles. As long as he sticks to his role he'll be a great addition for years even if slightly overpaid, and if they get more of 2022-23 Bo he might just be what the team needed to keep their competitive window open for longer.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Again he is a great goal scorer, but he still isn't a top 32 pt guy, isn't a top end defender. He isn't top 32 NHL centre.

We have seen Petey do it, the question is can he continue to do it.

I filtered the stats for the last 3 seasons by centers and, excluding players with less than 100 games played over that span, Horvat is tied for 32nd in terms of P/GP; 29th in terms of raw points scored. In terms of goalscoring, he's tied for 9th in G/GP and tied for 6th in terms of actual goals scored. He logs big minutes and wins faceoffs as well. It feels dishonest to say that he doesn't score enough to be a 1st line center.

 

[racerjoe]

And how many season did Johansen have better pts? Where was he ranked in pts in each season?

Larkin also has 3 season of more points than Horvats best season. You could easily also argue he has been played on a team with less firepower, and less chance to score.

I think on merit Larkin should get more, neither should be in that 10% range, Larkin will absolutely use Horvat as a comparable.

If I had to guess I would say if he stays in Detroit he signs for 8, if he goes to market it is more.

The main key being Horvat just set the market. Larkin being a better player should get more.

 

[racerjoe]

I filtered the stats for the last 3 seasons by centers and, excluding players with less than 100 games played over that span, Horvat is tied for 32nd in terms of P/GP; 29th in terms of raw points scored. In terms of goalscoring, he's tied for 9th in G/GP and tied for 6th in terms of actual goals scored. He logs big minutes and wins faceoffs as well. It feels dishonest to say that he doesn't score enough to be a 1st line center.

And again you don't think that will drop now that his SH % is starting to normalize? I doubt he stays in the top 32/29.

Fisrt line centres are not always goal scorers. Most end up being distributors. Thats why I like pts better. For instance would you not call Hank a first line centre when he played for us? Thorton?

 

[Tables of Stats]

And again you don't think that will drop now that his SH % is starting to normalize? I doubt he stays in the top 32/29.

Fisrt line centres are not always goal scorers. Most end up being distributors. Thats why I like pts better. For instance would you not call Hank a first line centre when he played for us? Thorton?

If you look at his numbers from the three seasons before this one, he's still full value as a goalscoring center even if he reverts to his prior rate. He's tied for 22nd in G/GP and is tied for 17th in raw scoring output in that same span. For points, he's tied for 39th in P/GP while being 31st for raw output. That's a 1st line center though not the typical pass-first version we're used to seeing.

I'm looking at both points per game and goals so I don't see where your argument is coming from here. Horvat's just outside of the top-32 in terms of pure points but I feel his goals offset that.

If we expand to looking at the top 96-forwards in the league it's not like his stats get less impressive. From 19-20 to 21-22, with the same filters as above, he's T35th in raw goals, T48th in goals per game, T67th in raw points, and T81st in points per game. He's full value as a first-line forward even excluding this season.

 

[Gstank]

Not saying I don't believe you, but do you have a source for that?

Friedman has said it a couple of times over the years.

 

[4Twenty]

I think on merit Larkin should get more, neither should be in that 10% range, Larkin will absolutely use Horvat as a comparable.

If I had to guess I would say if he stays in Detroit he signs for 8, if he goes to market it is more.

The main key being Horvat just set the market. Larkin being a better player should get more.

Larkin will get more because he’s a full year younger.

I don’t believe Horvat has set a market. 10% ish for this type of player is normal. Especially a C.

I won’t ask what 10% cap players are to you but whats the most cap you’d pay a player?

Project Pettersson to maintain his current production what’s that worth? Matthews in a couple years? McDavid?

I think you’re being very rigid and idealistic in your cap. That’s fair. I just think it’s undervaluing the players.