Confirmed with Link: [VAN/NYI] Canucks acquire F Anthony Beauvillier, F Aatu Raty, Conditional 1st in ‘23 or ‘24 for F Bo Horvat (25% Retention) - Part II

[4Twenty]

Then make it easy. Make a list of the top Centres, and put Bo on it.

See my reply's to the other poster who said he is getting the same money as a few centres. He just isn't as good, and that isn't to say he isn't good. Just that he isn't as good as the tier of those other guys. He only is when you base his performance entirely on this season.

Why? That still doesn’t explain anything. Comparing him to players who’s contracts are 75% RFA seasons is not a normal comparison. Also comparing him to Sidney Crosby’s decade old contract value isn’t telling you much either.


The other poster favouring different players doesn’t mean Jack shit to me. I’d prefer Horvat to Hertl. Easily.


I’ve already done all this work before in discussions with you. Just go back and look.

 

[Canucker]

I’m not arguing it would’ve been money well spent for the Canucks. I’m arguing this is the market rate for a quality C, who’s one of the top goal scorers in the league and is in his 27 year old season.

Yeah, I think the market has spoken and deemed Bo worthy of those figures...time will tell if he turns out to be money well spent or not.

 

[CanucksSayEh]

The fair market contract talk is moot if Bo wasn't willing to sign. Allvin doesn't have Luca Brasi with him to make a deal.

Well with FQ, maybe he does, but whatever.

 

[m9]

I’m using a 5 year sample. But sure recency bias lol.

Point is this is what players that perform like he has get paid. I get why folks don’t want it here but that’s just the market.

You guys will catch up sooner or later.

A 5-year sample size.. where the most recent year dramatically altered the results.

I agree that if he is a top-22 scoring center for the next handful of years he is paid appropriately. Do you think he will be that for the next 5 years?

No need to be condescending, lots of people are "caught up" and are just interested in alternate viewpoints.

 

[4Twenty]

A 5-year sample size.. where the most recent year dramatically altered the results.

I agree that if he is a top-22 scoring center for the next handful of years he is paid appropriately. Do you think he will be that for the next 5 years?

No need to be condescending, lots of people are "caught up" and are just interested in alternate viewpoints.

Why wouldn’t the most recent season be a bigger factor? It is for every free agent ever.

Contracts are going up. Top free agents get paid.

This isn’t new or abnormal.

 

[racerjoe]

Why? That still doesn’t explain anything. Comparing him to players who’s contracts are 75% RFA seasons is not a normal comparison. Also comparing him to Sidney Crosby’s decade old contract value isn’t telling you much either.


The other poster favouring different players doesn’t mean Jack shit to me. I’d prefer Horvat to Hertl. Easily.


I’ve already done all this work before in discussions with you. Just go back and look.

Because just like your top 22 goal scorer there goes your argument...

Its to find comparables. Its pretty simple. Yes RFA's are on a different scale.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Bo -still getting dissed, so happy for him to be out of this mess.
Pearson had a career year, points wise, with Bo as his center
Brock had a career year, goals wise, with Bo as his center.
Bo had a very good year last year, and then part way through this year, he finally got a top flight, offensive winger to play with.
Has a record pace, gets traded.

Too bad, his new deal likely would have been too much for the Nucks-even if they had done the smart thing and traded Miller.

A very good year..?...Bo had 52 points last year in 70 games (tied with Conor Garland for 4th and 5th in team scoring)...Thats not even close to being worthy of justifying $8.5M a season .

If there was ever a case of a player getting a whopping contract over a single outlier year..This has to be it...He's hit the jackpot in that regard..If he had hit free agency, he would have gotten the same money .

Very few people are dissing Horvat..An honest hockey player, and a genuine person.

 

[m9]

Why wouldn’t the most recent season be a bigger factor? It is for every free agent ever.

Contracts are going up. Top free agents get paid.

This isn’t new or abnormal.

Contracts go up, got it.

Like I said, I agree that his contract is fine if he can maintain being a top-22 scorer for the next 5 years. Do you think he will?

 

[Johnny Canucker]

Sure, But at least JT Miller had the numbers to back up his contract, Horvat is having 1 Career year.
JT Has been basically a PPG for 3 years

Pick your poison. They are both horrible contracts. Pretty telling sign of a terrible contract when they day after you sign it, if you can’t trade that player without having to attach a pick / prospect.

Both have the potential to be top 10 worst NHL contracts in a couple years.

OEL is a top 3 NHL worst contract. We didn’t even sign it …. We traded FOR it.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

It's going to take quite a few years to determine how this trade works out for the the Canucks..Where they draft, and who they draft with the Islanders 1st round pick will determine that.

Its interesting to see that the Canucks management didnt move heaven and earth to retain Horvat..Could they have been somewhat dissatisfied that the captain wasnt holding his team 'accountable' enough..?..

Having Horvat have a big season this year was likely a plus for the Canucks management ..enabling them to be able to sell high on him (even though I'm currently underwhelmed by the return, that could change if they hit a home run at the draft).

 

[iceburg]

Just because it has to be said....again....just because you don't like a contract doesn't mean you don't like the player. It is not disrespectful to have an opinion that Bo Horvat is getting paid too much for too long. Even his current boss agrees.

 

[4Twenty]

Contracts go up, got it.

Like I said, I agree that his contract is fine if he can maintain being a top-22 scorer for the next 5 years. Do you think he will?

That’s not the discussion. At least for me.

These contracts to UFA’s are almost always for what they’ve done not what they’re expected to do.

 

[m9]

That’s not the discussion. At least for me.

These contracts to UFA’s are almost always for what they’ve done not what they’re expected to do.

But you think the team should have signed this contract, correct?

So, I think it's a worthy question. If he's getting paid based on being the 22nd best goal-scorer but can't do that in the future then why would we want to pay that contract?

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Just because it has to be said....again....just because you don't like a contract doesn't mean you don't like the player. It is not disrespectful to have an opinion that Bo Horvat is getting paid too much for too long. Even his current boss agrees.

I'm starting to think that Lam was forced into this trade/signing by someone (above Lams pay grade) in the Islander organization ....Judging by some of his post trade comments.

 

[4Twenty]

Because just like your top 22 goal scorer there goes your argument...

Its to find comparables. Its pretty simple. Yes RFA's are on a different scale.

What do you mean there goes my argument? When you look at the last 5 seasons it’s a fact he’s 22nd.

He’s a top goal scorer. Plays a premium position. Is utilized like a top 15-20 player at his position. That’s what this type gets paid.


If RFA’s are on a different scale then how does it make sense to list the top 32 centres? Why does listing Crosby at $8.7m when it was 15% of the cap when signed (and obviously less than his impact).

I’ve regularly listed the same comparables for months.

 

[4Twenty]

But you think the team should have signed this contract, correct?

So, I think it's a worthy question. If he's getting paid based on being the 22nd best goal-scorer but can't do that in the future then why would we want to pay that contract?

I’m not discussing this in terms of what this shit show organization should’ve done. I’m discussing the going rate for this player or players like him.


I think he’ll continue to score goals while playing a premium position. I think he’ll play a ton Of minutes against quality lines and break even.


With regards to the Canucks, I’ve been vocal for a year that 6, 9 and 53 needed to be traded. But when they chose to sign 9, given the 2 years to cup contention goal they identified…signing one and keeping one is the worst possible outcome.

But for the sake of this conversation I’m mostly discussing the player types value.


I point out his goal scoring because people like yourself keep shouting down his offensive ability while he’s one of the most prolific at the hardest thing to do in the sport.

 

[MS]

I’m not discussing this in terms of what this shit show organization should’ve done. I’m discussing the going rate for this player or players like him.


I think he’ll continue to score goals while playing a premium position. I think he’ll play a ton Of minutes against quality lines and break even.


With regards to the Canucks, I’ve been vocal for a year that 6, 9 and 53 needed to be traded. But when they chose to sign 9, given the 2 years to cup contention goal they identified…signing one and keeping one is the worst possible outcome.

But for the sake of this conversation I’m mostly discussing the player types value.


I point out his goal scoring because people like yourself keep shouting down his offensive ability while he’s one of the most prolific at the hardest thing to do in the sport.

… and his goal scoring isn’t a one-season thing. He was tracking for 37 goals last year which would have put him top-20 in the league if he didn’t get hurt late.

This insistence that Bo Horvat is still the 2018 version 55-point 2nd line C reminds me of how like half this board was still pegging Chris Tanev as a #5 tops with a bad shot when he was in like his 2nd or 3rd year of playing top-pairing shutdown minutes.

Bo Horvat is a better player than Tomas Hertl and got the same contract.

 

[iceburg]

I'm actually having a hard time even comprehending that this is debatable. There are 52 centres that make $5M or more in the league. 19 of those signed in 2021 or later. In that group, the only players who make more than the contract that Horvat just signed are Aleksander Barkov and Braydon Point. 11 of the 19 would have been UFAs with only Barkov making more than Horvat among those 11.

I was going to do a scatter plot of salary vs 5 year point/year total but it occurred to me the "obvious" rule applies so I didn't bother taking the time.

 

[4Twenty]

… and his goal scoring isn’t a one-season thing. He was tracking for 37 goals last year which would have put him top-20 in the league if he didn’t get hurt late.

This insistence that Bo Horvat is still the 2018 version 55-point 2nd line C reminds me of how like half this board was still pegging Chris Tanev as a #5 tops with a bad shot when he was in like his 2nd or 3rd year of playing top-pairing shutdown minutes.

Bo Horvat is a better player than Tomas Hertl and got the same contract.

The interesting part with Hertl is his best year was early (with Thornton and Pavelski) and has basically been worse every season whereas Horvat is improving year over year over year.

 

[m9]

I point out his goal scoring because people like yourself keep shouting down his offensive ability while he’s one of the most prolific at the hardest thing to do in the sport.

It's strange that you say I would be "shouting down his offensive ability" when I am generally just giving his season-by-season goal scoring totals which is the information you wanted to use which is the last 5 years. But you don't like how am presenting the information (which is simply more detail) because it doesn't favour what you are trying to say.

… and his goal scoring isn’t a one-season thing. He was tracking for 37 goals last year which would have put him top-20 in the league if he didn’t get hurt late.

This insistence that Bo Horvat is still the 2018 version 55-point 2nd line C reminds me of how like half this board was still pegging Chris Tanev as a #5 tops with a bad shot when he was in like his 2nd or 3rd year of playing top-pairing shutdown minutes.

No need to go back to 2018 - the last 4 years before this one he has scored at a rate of 61, 63, 57, and 61.

Not sure why you are using some "2018 version 55-point" thing when the actual truth is he's basically been around a 60pt guy the last half-decade until this season.

 

[4Twenty]

I'm actually having a hard time even comprehending that this is debatable. There are 52 centres that make $5M or more in the league. 19 of those signed in 2021 or later. In that group, the only players who make more than the contract that Horvat just signed are Aleksander Barkov and Braydon Point. 11 of the 19 would have been UFAs with only Barkov making more than Horvat among those 11.

I was going to do a scatter plot of salary vs 5 year point/goal total but it occurred to me the "obvious" rule applies so I didn't bother taking the time.

View attachment 646448

A) a bunch Signed during peak pandemic.

B) Also the Florida based players players completely blow up the sample. Both are at minimum 15% under market.

C) a fair number of your list were RFA deals.

 

[racerjoe]

What do you mean there goes my argument? When you look at the last 5 seasons it’s a fact he’s 22nd.

He’s a top goal scorer. Plays a premium position. Is utilized like a top 15-20 player at his position. That’s what this type gets paid.


If RFA’s are on a different scale then how does it make sense to list the top 32 centres? Why does listing Crosby at $8.7m when it was 15% of the cap when signed (and obviously less than his impact).

I’ve regularly listed the same comparables for months.

He is only top 22 if you include 41 game sample size where he was scoring with a 25% shooting percentage. Do you think he will end this season top 10 in goeals? If not then you know exactly why I am saying this.

He isn't a top 15-20 player at his position. He should be paid what he is.


You are now mixing like 3 or four points together to try and have an argument. Place him where you think he should be then find the comparables that signed. Yes Again take Crosby as a 15% of the cap guy... like you keep jumping between % and dollar amount, when it helps you. Try to stay consistence on this.

You have listed players most have said are better than Bo. Hertl signed for less than Bo by the way, both by cap dollar and cap%.

 

[iceburg]

nvm

 

[iceburg]

A) a bunch Signed during peak pandemic.

B) Also the Florida based players players completely blow up the sample. Both are at minimum 15% under market.

C) a fair number of your list were RFA deals.

OK. So first you argue that the cited contracts were too old. Now you're arguing that the recent contracts are because of the pandemic...

And there are two FLA contracts on the list...they are literally the only two that make more than Horvat.

I said 11 of the 19 were UFAs...you can do the filtering. Message stays the same.

 

[4Twenty]

OK. So first you argue that the cited contracts were too old. Now you're arguing that the recent contracts are because of the pandemic...

And there is one FLA contract on the list...he makes more than Horvat.

I said 11 of the 19 were UFAs...you can do the filtering. Message stays the same.

Yes obviously. The more new information the better.

Arguing deals signed during peak pandemic are the norm seem foolish. The nhl has released cap projections. It’s going up.

~10% is pretty lock step with what this type of player is worth on the market.

Duchene, Ryan Johansen, Hertl….

Florida based ….ie Brayden Point!!!!!