Speculation: Value of Cizikas and Martin this off season

[bluechipbonzo]

Is the link I provided not working? If not, the jist of it is that Chicago just signed 4th liner Marcus Kruger to a 3 year deal at just a bit over 3m per year. Ergo, Chicago disagrees that you don't ever pay 4th liners $3m.

Check this thread and see what chicago fans thik about that deal...holy overpayment batman

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2043607

Peace

 

[Seph]

Not working because it contradicts you...not to mention everyone knows Kruger is their third line centre.

Peace

I suppose you'll have to explain how Chicago signing a 4th liner to a 3m+ per deal contradicts that Chicago is willing to sign a 4th liner to a 3m+ per year deal.

Also, 1 point in 33 games makes a player a 3rd liner? OK then.

 

[Rhino1985]

If you take a second to think of them as our 3rd line, not our 4th line, you might change your opinion on how much we should pay them.

All three of these guys are playing better hockey than Kulimen, Grabovski (pre-Tavares line), Bailey, Strome, and Prince. Can we really call them the 4th line when they are playing better than almost half over forwards?

I'd rather overpay to keep this line together and dump Kule and/or Grabo in the offseason.

 

[BillD]

If you take a second to think of them as our 3rd line, not our 4th line, you might change your opinion on how much we should pay them.

All three of these guys are playing better hockey than Kulimen, Grabovski (pre-Tavares line), Bailey, Strome, and Prince. Can we really call them the 4th line when they are playing better than almost half over forwards?

I'd rather overpay to keep this line together and dump Kule and/or Grabo in the offseason.

I agree. Getting over the label "4th line" will allow us to view their value against their contribution and role. What makes Strome a 1st liner, or Kulemin 3rd liner?

 

[bluechipbonzo]

I suppose you'll have to explain how Chicago signing a 4th liner to a 3m+ per deal contradicts that Chicago is willing to sign a 4th liner to a 3m+ per year deal.

Also, 1 point in 33 games makes a player a 3rd liner? OK then.

So he'll be getting more money to play on the 4th line than their 3rd liners huh.

Makes sense.

 

[seabass45]

I could definitely see some desperate team pay Martin 3 mil. Is Brandon Prust a proper equivalent here? He signed a 4 year, 10 mil deal.

 

[ndgolden]

So he'll be getting more money to play on the 4th line than their 3rd liners huh.

Makes sense.

Casey has been nothing short of fantastic this year. Plays with passion every night and never takes a shift off. Deserves a solid contract.

 

[Seph]

So he'll be getting more money to play on the 4th line than their 3rd liners huh.

Makes sense.

So your belief is that one point in 33 games is enough production for a legit 3rd liner?

Also, my statement was not in reference to Chicago fans, but the team's management.

 

[Isles222]

Most important , consistent and effective line on our team. The term 4th line is inaccurate. Martin will probably not be as effective on another team, but I wouldnt be surprised if he gets 3. He will definitely ask for 3.

 

[crasherino]

I could definitely see some desperate team pay Martin 3 mil. Is Brandon Prust a proper equivalent here? He signed a 4 year, 10 mil deal.

I could deal with something along those lines. You have to think that Martin would take it too. Is it worth to uproot his life to chase a contract less than $500k more per year? If they keep it under $2.5m/yr, I'd do it.

 

[IslesNorway]

Doubt Snow will give an rfa like Cizikas a raise like that. He needs to keep a keen eye on the cap and will be given a nice raise but I see it more in the 2.2 - 2.5 million range. Perhaps a Snow special but he has no leverage

 

[WangMustGo]

I could deal with something along those lines. You have to think that Martin would take it too. Is it worth to uproot his life to chase a contract less than $500k more per year? If they keep it under $2.5m/yr, I'd do it.

Yep 2.5 and under is a good deal. I would give Zeeker 2.5-3m over 3-4 years. These guys are awesome together.

 

[Jester9881]

Our salary needs to be carefully handled with JT and Frans coming up. We still need to a top line winger.

If Martin wants anymore then 1.5-2 he can take a hike. Cizikas 3 is about right. Cal is at 2.75 and needs a new deal after after next year. Say he wants 3. $8 million 2 years from now is a lot to spend on your 4th line and even if they might be worth it we need to keep them as low as possible. We can't give MM $3M. Every player on our 4th line making $3M each is a lot.

JT is not a worry, as both Kuli and Grabo come off freeing over 10m

 

[bluechipbonzo]

So your belief is that one point in 33 games is enough production for a legit 3rd liner?

Also, my statement was not in reference to Chicago fans, but the team's management.

So other than Kruger, who is clearly being overpaid for that kind of production, as most hawks fans would agree...can you offer any other examples?

Because the one you did offer up doesn't make sense...it's clearly an aberration- or a sign that they like Kruger centering the third line as I've suggested. Rassmussen is the fourth line centre- unless you know something I don't know.

As I said before, teams just don't pay their fourth liners $3 mil a season.

Case closed!

 

[Jester9881]

I think we're going to have to come to grip woth the fact that these guys really aren't our 4th line. The only thing that makes it our 4th line is thei current combined salary. Eventually, probably as early as next season they will be getting paid like our 3rd line which is more in line with how they are used. If Snow is smart and gets CC and MM to sign longer term deals in lieu of higher money, eventually their salary will be back in line with a typical top notch 4th line.

 

[Jester9881]

I could definitely see some desperate team pay Martin 3 mil. Is Brandon Prust a proper equivalent here? He signed a 4 year, 10 mil deal.

Matt Martin was drafted here, and has set some serious roots down. That was also at a time when the cap was going up up up every year. Different situations in many ways.

 

[bluechipbonzo]

I think we're going to have to come to grip woth the fact that these guys really aren't our 4th line. The only thing that makes it our 4th line is thei current combined salary. Eventually, probably as early as next season they will be getting paid like our 3rd line which is more in line with how they are used. If Snow is smart and gets CC and MM to sign longer term deals in lieu of higher money, eventually their salary will be back in line with a typical top notch 4th line.

I was thinking the same- just move out the stragglers, bump CC, CC, and Martin up to the third line, and go out and grab ANOTHER awesome fourth line to replace their hard-hitting 8-12 mins a night, and poof, we'll be even better! That shouldn't be too hard (!)


Now, there is a chance that they are succeeding precisely because of their limited minutes, and that the toll on their bodies will slow them in the next two to three seasons...ah what the heck, let's throw $3 mil at each of them! They are AWESOME!

 

[Seph]

So other than Kruger, who is clearly being overpaid for that kind of production, as most hawks fans would agree...can you offer any other examples?

Because the one you did offer up doesn't make sense...it's clearly an aberration- or a sign that they like Kruger centering the third line as I've suggested. Rassmussen is the fourth line centre- unless you know something I don't know.

As I said before, teams just don't pay their fourth liners $3 mil a season.

Case closed!

Ah, the no true Scotsman fallacy. It never happens as long as we ignore when it does happen.

 

[kmo429]

Don't get me wrong, I love Martin and what he brings to the Isles. Toughness, hitting, forechecking, and so on. He is without a doubt one of the best "12th best forward" in the league, if you know what I mean. With that, he is a UFA, and our priority should be Nielsen, Cizikas, Strome, Okposo, etc. Martin is the kind of player who, on the open market, will get paid because others around the league have a love affair with our fourth line (for good reason.)

I can't for some reason remember the player I am thinking of, but there was a 4th line guy 2 or 3 offseason ago who got somewhere like 2.5-3 million per year. Not to say martin would get that, but I could easily see him getting 3 years 6 million or something, potentially even a higher dollar figure, on the open market. Obviously that isn't breaking the bank, but with the cap situation the Isles are in, they're going to need every dollar to maintain the core of the roster for the next several years. So unless Martin really wants to stay here and is willing to take a team-friendly deal, I think he, as our 12th best forward, is replaceable.


On the other end of the spectrum, Cizikas needs to get locked up. Anyone with eyes can see that Cizikas is one of the bet "4th liners" in all of the NHL. He just does everything well. The most underrated aspect of his game though is his offense. I genuinely believe Casey could thrive in a 3rd line role. He is the prototypical "3rd line center," who can check, excel in a 2-way style of play, and create offense. I remember when Cizikas was still a prospect, people had him pegged as a "future 3rd line C, with the upside to even be complementary 2nd liner." Now that he has been cemented on the 4th line, we forget those days because it is hard to imagine not only breaking up the 4th line in the NHL, but because Cizikas has excelled so much in his role, why change it up? Regardless, Cizikas is proving this year that he is capable of contributing greatly on offense. Although Clutterbuck and Martin have been good at putting the puck in the net as well, Cizikas is the one on that line most consistently responsible for the offensive production of the 4th line. No one on our team besides maybe Kulemin is better at creating opportunities by forcing turnovers behind the red line. Casey is already going to be a 30 point player this year. Imagine we had him centering our 3rd line with some combination of Lee, Kulemin, Grabovski. I have little doubt he could be a 40 point center next year, and he needs to be paid like one.

Most liekly, given his "role," Garth will give him a 2 or 3 year bridge deal and then we'll need to deal with his unrestricted free agency in a few years. But if I was the GM, I am offering Casey 4+ years easily. Do everything you can to make sure Casey is wearing an Isles Uniform for a long time.

 

[crasherino]

If we lost Martin to FA and moved Kulemin to our 4th line, would we still have the best 4th line in hockey? We wouldn't have quite the thunderous hits that we have with Martin (and what's gotten that line the most attention) but it would probably be a more effective line on both ends of the ice. Our lines could look as follows:

Nelson - JT - Strome
Prince - Nielsen - Bailey
Lee - Barzal - Grabovski
Kulemin - CC - CC

And if we replaced Okposo with a top-6 ready RW, Prince could get bumped. Ditto with Barzal if he's not ready.

 

[blitzkriegs]

I can't for some reason remember the player I am thinking of, but there was a 4th line guy 2 or 3 offseason ago who got somewhere like 2.5-3 million per year. Not to say martin would get that, but I could easily see him getting 3 years 6 million or something, potentially even a higher dollar figure, on the open market. Obviously that isn't breaking the bank, but with the cap situation the Isles are in, they're going to need every dollar to maintain the core of the roster for the next several years. So unless Martin really wants to stay here and is willing to take a team-friendly deal, I think he, as our 12th best forward, is replaceable.

I like you are referring to Prust or Boyle.

There's no reason to not pay MM unless his demands are just stupid. However, do Isles have someone similar in the system to replace him? Nope. If the '4th' line is working for you (like 2yrs in a row), then that's reason enough to keep it intact.

There are funds tied up in other players that are underperforming. MM should be rewarded, but not grossly overpaid or tips the cap structure of the team. MM at 3/$6 or 4/$8 is just fine and palatable.

 

[SI90]

Having the best 4th line is like have the best Prius that shares a garage with a BMW, Mercedes, and Mustang.

 

[crasherino]

I like you are referring to Prust or Boyle.

There's no reason to not pay MM unless his demands are just stupid. However, do Isles have someone similar in the system to replace him? Nope. If the '4th' line is working for you (like 2yrs in a row), then that's reason enough to keep it intact.

There are funds tied up in other players that are underperforming. MM should be rewarded, but not grossly overpaid or tips the cap structure of the team. MM at 3/$6 or 4/$8 is just fine and palatable.

Well, of course it is. I don't think anyone will object to those numbers. That's the two foot putt here. But, what if his demand is $3m/yr? That starts to get a little harder. I don't think we can pay him in the 3s. At that point, you need to walk away.

 

[frankieboy]

I could deal with something along those lines. You have to think that Martin would take it too. Is it worth to uproot his life to chase a contract less than $500k more per year? If they keep it under $2.5m/yr, I'd do it.

If we pay everyone what they are worth, we are going to get jammed up down the line. At some point, Garth will have to part company with some players who get pricey and replace them with cheaper options. Will there be a drop off? Probably, but hopefully not much. I am NOT comparing Halmo to Martin...BUT...could Halmo fill Martin's role or most of it? Maybe. If not Halmo, what about Bernier? Possibly. I don't know. I am only throwing that out for there for discussion. Some may immediately slam that idea. That is fine. I am only trying to say that some of our core guys may get replaced as their salaries increase to keep things manageable. It will happen. Look around the league. Could Martin be the start of it? Possibly. With all this said, I hope we can retain Martin on a reasonable deal. Personally, I think $3M/year is too much when you consider Clutterbuck is making close to that and Casey is going to need a raise soon. I consider each of them more important than Martin. Are we going to pay $9M/year for our 4th line? If the powers that be feel we can do that given our internal and external (salary cap) budgets, I am fine with it. Just something to consider.

 

[frankieboy]

CRASHERINO, I am not suggesting that you said that Martin should be paid $3M/year...I only responded to your post because you were discussing what he should be paid.