Prospect Info: Update on Lukas Sutter

[Hank Chinaski]

Highly skilled guys taken outside of the very top-end of the draft have a greater chance of flaming out. Jets management were/are dealing with a dearth of legitimate prospects. Rather than swinging for the fences and perhaps getting a home run, in this case they may well have taken a player that they were fairly sure would eventually be a player for them - versus a player in another organization in a lower league, one that had flamed out. It is called building a war chest.

This probably is the best educated guess as to why Chevy took a lower-ceiling guy like Sutter over someone like Frk, Bozon, etc.

I understand the argument on the other side, namely that taking a guy who projects as a 3rd/4th liner in the 2nd round doesn't make sense, given that those players can be acquired with relative ease through free agency or waivers.

Hard to say, really. My own feeling is that if Sutter ends up being a Stephane Yelle type of player (I see lots of similarities between the two), it won't have been a bad pick in the 2nd round.

EDIT: Thanks garret. So truck's assessment was more accurate than mine, Sutter would probably best be described as a consensus 3rd rounder. All I know is that he went to Carolina in the 2nd round of the mock draft I was in.

 

[Flair Hay]

Does anyone have anything close to a player comparison for Lowry? He's so much bigger than most players in junior when I watch his highlights. I have a hard time pegging what type of guy he'll be.

Is a Ryan Cliwe type winger the ideal situation?

 

[Scheifele55]

I believe Cheveldayoff has drafted players who have a very high upside. Some people will argue that Forsberg has a higher upside than Trouba, but it seems that good defensemen are in higher demand compared with forwards. If Lukas Sutter can develop into a solid 3rd liner who can play with talented players I would be happy. If he develops into a 2nd liner or even 1st liner great. He seems to have all the intangibles to reach it. Its just a matter of skill development.

 

[ps241]

Does anyone have anything close to a player comparison for Lowry? He's so much bigger than most players in junior when I watch his highlights. I have a hard time pegging what type of guy he'll be.

Is a Ryan Cliwe type winger the ideal situation?

I assume you mean Ryane Clowe and that is a good comparison. According to Lowry in an article in our free press a while back I believe that is who he said he is modeling his game after (at least I think it was the Freep article)

 

[Flair Hay]

I assume you mean Ryane Clowe and that is a good comparison. According to Lowry in an article in our free press a while back I believe that is who he said he is modeling his game after (at least I think it was the Freep article)

Okay cool thanks. Thought I was in the general prospect thread btw...

 

[truck]

Highly skilled guys taken outside of the very top-end of the draft have a greater chance of flaming out. Jets management were/are dealing with a dearth of legitimate prospects. Rather than swinging for the fences and perhaps getting a home run, in this case they may well have taken a player that they were fairly sure would eventually be a player for them - versus a player in another organization in a lower league, one that had flamed out. It is called building a war chest.

Is their any evidence backing the "skilled guys don't make good bottom 6 players" thing? Lots of people say it, but I don't think it is actually true. Not in general and especially in the 2nd round.

Lots of bottom 6 players are failed skill players. Lots of what makes a player an offensive threat (awareness, skating, positioning, etc.) are assets in defensive hockey. Detroit built their franchise around late round skill players.

Not to mention the super skilled guys that slip because they are small but end up finding NHL gigs.

Can size be an asset in defensive hockey? Sure. It isn't the only factor though and being a scorer in junior doesn't mean a player can't be effective defensively.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Is their any evidence backing the "skilled guys don't make good bottom 6 players" thing? Lots of people say it, but I don't think it is actually true. Not in general and especially in the 2nd round.

Yeah, there is.

What I actually said was that highly skilled guys not taken at the top of the draft face a higher risk of flaming out. Many highly skilled guys are pigeonholed into a top 6 role or bust box that is not applied to energy/grinder-type forwards.

 

[truck]

Yeah, there is. Many highly skilled guys are pigeonholed into a top 6 role or bust box that is not applied to energy/grinder-type forwards.

Not sure how bottom 6 or bust is less limiting than top 6 or bust especially when you consider that most bottom 6 players were drafted early (usually with higher aspirations).

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Sutter is going to be interesting in how the Jets handle him next year.

He is eligible to go to St. John's. However the Jets do not need to sign him to maintain his rights until June 2014. It'll be interesting if they let him return to WHL for his overage season in Junior where he should be absolutely dominant playing all situations and 25 minutes a game for Saskatoon or if they sign him to a St. John's only contract and have him battling for icetime in AHL while learning the pro game. Very VERY few players who play their overage season in Junior ever make NHL, but if Sutter cannot crack the top two lines for a WHL team it seems unlikely he can make an AHL roster.

Almost all guys who play bottom 6 in NHL were key contributors (top 3 in points) on their respective junior teams. Even Peluso put up more points as a 19 year than Sutter did this season. For example, at 19...

Year - Player - League - Team - GP - G - A - PTS
02-03 - Chris Thorburn - OHL - SAG/PLY - 64 - 30 - 41 - 71
09-10 - James Wright - WHL - VAN - 21 - 6 - 13 - 19
08-09 - Eric Tangradi - OHL - BEL - 55 - 38 - 50 - 88
09-10 - Jordan Nolan - OHL - STM - 49 - 23 - 25 - 48
06-07 - Trevor Lewis - OHL - OSA - 62 - 29 - 44 - 73
07-08 - Dustin Jeffrey - OHL - SSM - 56 - 38 - 59 - 97
07-08 - Brandon Sutter - WHL - RDR - 59 - 26 - 23 - 49
05-06 - Tyler Kennedy - OHL - SSM - 64 - 22 - 48 - 70

To see a player that cannot be a key player on a junior team at 19 usually screams no NHL potential. The only example of a guy who became a real solid player without being a solid junior contributor at both ends that I can think of off the top of my head is Travis Moen (71-10-17-27), so it's not impossible but really unlikely.

 

[Flair Hay]

Sutter is going to be interesting in how the Jets handle him next year.

He is eligible to go to St. John's. However the Jets do not need to sign him to maintain his rights until June 2014. It'll be interesting if they let him return to WHL for his overage season in Junior where he should be absolutely dominant playing all situations and 25 minutes a game for Saskatoon or if they sign him to a St. John's only contract and have him battling for icetime in AHL while learning the pro game. Very VERY few players who play their overage season in Junior ever make NHL, but if Sutter cannot crack the top two lines for a WHL team it seems unlikely he can make an AHL roster.

Almost all guys who play bottom 6 in NHL were key contributors (top 3 in points) on their respective junior teams. Even Peluso put up more points as a 19 year than Sutter did this season. For example, at 19...

Year - Player - League - Team - GP - G - A - PTS
02-03 - Chris Thorburn - OHL - SAG/PLY - 64 - 30 - 41 - 71
09-10 - James Wright - WHL - VAN - 21 - 6 - 13 - 19
08-09 - Eric Tangradi - OHL - BEL - 55 - 38 - 50 - 88
09-10 - Jordan Nolan - OHL - STM - 49 - 23 - 25 - 48
06-07 - Trevor Lewis - OHL - OSA - 62 - 29 - 44 - 73
07-08 - Dustin Jeffrey - OHL - SSM - 56 - 38 - 59 - 97
07-08 - Brandon Sutter - WHL - RDR - 59 - 26 - 23 - 49
05-06 - Tyler Kennedy - OHL - SSM - 64 - 22 - 48 - 70

To see a player that cannot be a key player on a junior team at 19 usually screams no NHL potential. The only example of a guy who became a real solid player without being a solid junior contributor at both ends that I can think of off the top of my head is Travis Moen (71-10-17-27), so it's not impossible but really unlikely.

Super informative post, thanks. Hopefully he can break the trend.

 

[garret9]

Sutter is going to be interesting in how the Jets handle him next year.

He is eligible to go to St. John's. However the Jets do not need to sign him to maintain his rights until June 2014. It'll be interesting if they let him return to WHL for his overage season in Junior where he should be absolutely dominant playing all situations and 25 minutes a game for Saskatoon or if they sign him to a St. John's only contract and have him battling for icetime in AHL while learning the pro game. Very VERY few players who play their overage season in Junior ever make NHL, but if Sutter cannot crack the top two lines for a WHL team it seems unlikely he can make an AHL roster.

Almost all guys who play bottom 6 in NHL were key contributors (top 3 in points) on their respective junior teams. Even Peluso put up more points as a 19 year than Sutter did this season. For example, at 19...

Year - Player - League - Team - GP - G - A - PTS
02-03 - Chris Thorburn - OHL - SAG/PLY - 64 - 30 - 41 - 71
09-10 - James Wright - WHL - VAN - 21 - 6 - 13 - 19
08-09 - Eric Tangradi - OHL - BEL - 55 - 38 - 50 - 88
09-10 - Jordan Nolan - OHL - STM - 49 - 23 - 25 - 48
06-07 - Trevor Lewis - OHL - OSA - 62 - 29 - 44 - 73
07-08 - Dustin Jeffrey - OHL - SSM - 56 - 38 - 59 - 97
07-08 - Brandon Sutter - WHL - RDR - 59 - 26 - 23 - 49
05-06 - Tyler Kennedy - OHL - SSM - 64 - 22 - 48 - 70

To see a player that cannot be a key player on a junior team at 19 usually screams no NHL potential. The only example of a guy who became a real solid player without being a solid junior contributor at both ends that I can think of off the top of my head is Travis Moen (71-10-17-27), so it's not impossible but really unlikely.

It's really interesting in Sutter's case because the more I've delved into it and watched him, the more I'm not sure if it's really all due to him...

*When I checked less than a week ago, he had more even strength points than any player on the team's 2nd, 3rd or 4th line.
*He's done a lot of this scoring while having a very low TOI with being mostly on the 3rd line and also spending probably a good bit of his minutes in the box (PS I'm not a fan of him taking so many PIM, especially since a lot are hooking, holding, tripping, etc).
*He wasn't given 2nd line or PP when he was on the longest active goal streak in the WHL.

We all know how usage (TOI, matchups and OZS) can have dramatic affects on a players production. Look how last season Glass, Thorburn and Slater all hit highs even though they actually regressed, just got more TOI/GP.

To put in perspective, Brassard, Sutter and Olsen all have similar even strength points.
Brassard plays on the top line and shifts between PP1/2 depending on the game. He has very few PP points.
Sutter plays mostly on the third line and gets no PP points.
Olsen plays on the second line and is on PP1. He has a lot of PP points.

I wasn't a fan of the Sutter pick when it happened, but personally I won't judge him by his stat line quite yet...
Too bad we don't have TOI and shot reports in the WHL then I could do advance stats on him to clear up some of that information haha

 

[Holden Caulfield]

It's really interesting in Sutter's case because the more I've delved into it and watched him, the more I'm not sure if it's really all due to him...

*When I checked less than a week ago, he had more even strength points than any player on the team's 2nd, 3rd or 4th line.
*He's done a lot of this scoring while having a very low TOI with being mostly on the 3rd line and also spending probably a good bit of his minutes in the box (PS I'm not a fan of him taking so many PIM, especially since a lot are hooking, holding, tripping, etc).
*He wasn't given 2nd line or PP when he was on the longest active goal streak in the WHL.

We all know how usage (TOI, matchups and OZS) can have dramatic affects on a players production. Look how last season Glass, Thorburn and Slater all hit highs even though they actually regressed, just got more TOI/GP.

To put in perspective, Brassard, Sutter and Olsen all have similar even strength points.
Brassard plays on the top line and shifts between PP1/2 depending on the game. He has very few PP points.
Sutter plays mostly on the third line and gets no PP points.
Olsen plays on the second line and is on PP1. He has a lot of PP points.

I wasn't a fan of the Sutter pick when it happened, but personally I won't judge him by his stat line quite yet...
Too bad we don't have TOI and shot reports in the WHL then I could do advance stats on him to clear up some of that information haha

You state these things like they are positives. They are not. In fact it is hugely concerning that he has been unable to carve out a bigger role for himself on a mere junior team. A player like him should be playing huge minutes in junior, not being relegated down to 3rd line...

 

[garret9]

You state these things like they are positives. They are not. In fact it is hugely concerning that he has been unable to carve out a bigger role for himself on a mere junior team. A player like him should be playing huge minutes in junior, not being relegated down to 3rd line...

Not as positives, but not as negatives...
More inquisitive really. I'm more interested than anything.

Can we honestly say even NHL level coaches relegate or promote players when appropriate?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Sutter busts, but I'm very curious on what the next two years look like for him.

 

[Bob E]

Sutter is going to be interesting in how the Jets handle him next year.

He is eligible to go to St. John's. However the Jets do not need to sign him to maintain his rights until June 2014. It'll be interesting if they let him return to WHL for his overage season in Junior where he should be absolutely dominant playing all situations and 25 minutes a game for Saskatoon or if they sign him to a St. John's only contract and have him battling for icetime in AHL while learning the pro game. Very VERY few players who play their overage season in Junior ever make NHL, but if Sutter cannot crack the top two lines for a WHL team it seems unlikely he can make an AHL roster.

Almost all guys who play bottom 6 in NHL were key contributors (top 3 in points) on their respective junior teams. Even Peluso put up more points as a 19 year than Sutter did this season. For example, at 19...

Year - Player - League - Team - GP - G - A - PTS
02-03 - Chris Thorburn - OHL - SAG/PLY - 64 - 30 - 41 - 71
09-10 - James Wright - WHL - VAN - 21 - 6 - 13 - 19
08-09 - Eric Tangradi - OHL - BEL - 55 - 38 - 50 - 88
09-10 - Jordan Nolan - OHL - STM - 49 - 23 - 25 - 48
06-07 - Trevor Lewis - OHL - OSA - 62 - 29 - 44 - 73
07-08 - Dustin Jeffrey - OHL - SSM - 56 - 38 - 59 - 97
07-08 - Brandon Sutter - WHL - RDR - 59 - 26 - 23 - 49
05-06 - Tyler Kennedy - OHL - SSM - 64 - 22 - 48 - 70

To see a player that cannot be a key player on a junior team at 19 usually screams no NHL potential. The only example of a guy who became a real solid player without being a solid junior contributor at both ends that I can think of off the top of my head is Travis Moen (71-10-17-27), so it's not impossible but really unlikely.

When the Jets took him, he was coming 70 gp/28 g/31 a/59 pt season. With 165 PIMs and was a plus 15.

One would assume, with his blood lines and gritty game, he would continue to develop his offensive game and have a 30+ g/30+ a/60++ season this year and be used in all situations. Growth would come from added experiences over the summer - his prospects/development camp with the Jets, the Russia/Canada Challenge - and his game would reach a new level.

But, his international play this summer started the 'red flags'. He took undisciplined, poor timed penalties. His play back with the Blades in the fall was dreadful. He wasn't asked to the WJC camp, which you would think his summer experience would have made that almost automatic. And, the fact that he has less points (23) than he had goals last year, has to be concerning to Jets brass.

At this point, he has a long, long way to go, imo, and a relatively short time to get there. Another year in WHL seems inevitable, and that has to be concerning to the Jets, as well. His road to the NHL may have to be a few years in ECHL, then AHL with significant improvement along the way.

 

[truck]

When the Jets took him, he was coming 70 gp/28 g/31 a/59 pt season. With 165 PIMs and was a plus 15.

One would assume, with his blood lines and gritty game, he would continue to develop his offensive game and have a 30+ g/30+ a/60++ season this year and be used in all situations. Growth would come from added experiences over the summer - his prospects/development camp with the Jets, the Russia/Canada Challenge - and his game would reach a new level.

But, his international play this summer started the 'red flags'. He took undisciplined, poor timed penalties. His play back with the Blades in the fall was dreadful. He wasn't asked to the WJC camp, which you would think his summer experience would have made that almost automatic. And, the fact that he has less points (23) than he had goals last year, has to be concerning to Jets brass.

At this point, he has a long, long way to go, imo, and a relatively short time to get there. Another year in WHL seems inevitable, and that has to be concerning to the Jets, as well. His road to the NHL may have to be a few years in ECHL, then AHL with significant improvement along the way.

I don't like that blood lines always come into play. I would hope he earned it on his own merit. Bloodlines don't mean anything IMO.

Not a fan of the focus on his intangibles either as I've heard suggestions that he really isn't great in that department either.

 

[Grind]

You state these things like they are positives. They are not. In fact it is hugely concerning that he has been unable to carve out a bigger role for himself on a mere junior team. A player like him should be playing huge minutes in junior, not being relegated down to 3rd line...

I"d tend to think they are positives.

It may be that he "has been unable to carve out a bigger role for himself" but remember, thats a decision driven by a coach, it is not an automatic one based off production. Furthermore a decision made by a coach that drove this team into the ground through the first half of the season.

At the end of the day, TOI/game is determined by someone else. what you do with it is determined by you. Sutters doing quite bit with the limited TOI I think with different usage (or maybe even some semblance of team sucess through the start of the season) we may have seen a very different stat line from Mr Sutter this season.

Final note: i could have gone either way when the pick was made, would have liked a skill guy like frk, but i'll give sutter another year at least. And yes, i've been pretty dissapointed with his production this season as well

 

[Whileee]

You state these things like they are positives. They are not. In fact it is hugely concerning that he has been unable to carve out a bigger role for himself on a mere junior team. A player like him should be playing huge minutes in junior, not being relegated down to 3rd line...

...especially since he is a 19 year old in his third full WHL season.

 

[Whileee]

I"d tend to think they are positives.

It may be that he "has been unable to carve out a bigger role for himself" but remember, thats a decision driven by a coach, it is not an automatic one based off production. Furthermore a decision made by a coach that drove this team into the ground through the first half of the season.

At the end of the day, TOI/game is determined by someone else. what you do with it is determined by you. Sutters doing quite bit with the limited TOI I think with different usage (or maybe even some semblance of team sucess through the start of the season) we may have seen a very different stat line from Mr Sutter this season.

Final note: i could have gone either way when the pick was made, would have liked a skill guy like frk, but i'll give sutter another year at least. And yes, i've been pretty dissapointed with his production this season as well

So, shouldn't we be concerned that he hasn't been able to get the confidence of his junior coach? Perhaps his coach just has it in for him, but he was considered a leader on the team. The coach obviously doesn't trust him to produce results in a more prominent role in junior. That is a red flag for a 19 year old, relatively high, 2nd round pick.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

So, shouldn't we be concerned that he hasn't been able to get the confidence of his junior coach? Perhaps his coach just has it in for him, but he was considered a leader on the team. The coach obviously doesn't trust him to produce results in a more prominent role in junior. That is a red flag for a 19 year old, relatively high, 2nd round pick.

Maybe, maybe not.

It's possible that Sutter has done absolutely nothing to justify being used in an offensive role, in which case he's probably a busted pick. It seems even more likely that Molleken wants to use him in an exclusively defensive role because it's a role he excels in.

There has to be an explanation for putting up a mere 4 more points compared to his 17 year old year. Personally, I don't think the explanation is that Lukas Sutter's 2011-12 season was a total fluke, and he's really a 0.25 PPG player at the WHL level.

Next year will be telling. If he's unable to crack the IceCaps, then I think the bust talk is worth revisiting.

 

[ps241]

Yea this one is tough....I didn't love the pick at the time but warmed up to it when I started reading the posts about him from people closer to the WHL and the Blades. This year has not been what anyone would have expected and it is concerning how he is being used by his coach. That being said they still have a ways to go and a memorial cup to play so i will wait until the entire body of work is in for the season.

Hopefully one day we will be wrong and Lukas will be that guy every team hates to play against.....the guy who drives Giroux nuts.....puts the stick into Marchand.....torments the other star players while walking the line and keeping the needless penalties down. We really don't have a guy like that on our team or in our system all due respect to Cormier.

At this point I am not holding my breath though.

 

[truck]

Maybe, maybe not.

It's possible that Sutter has done absolutely nothing to justify being used in an offensive role, in which case he's probably a busted pick. It seems even more likely that Molleken wants to use him in an exclusively defensive role because it's a role he excels in.

There has to be an explanation for putting up a mere 4 more points compared to his 17 year old year. Personally, I don't think the explanation is that Lukas Sutter's 2011-12 season was a total fluke, and he's really a 0.25 PPG player at the WHL level.

Next year will be telling. If he's unable to crack the IceCaps, then I think the bust talk is worth revisiting.

If I recall correctly Sutter started the year on the top line, but he didn't perform and slowly got demoted line by line. I think it was a 3rd of the way through the season when he bottomed out on the 4th line and he has eventually bounced back up to the 3rd.

This is why I am not sure I buy the coaching decision thing. It is worth noting that the team got a lot better and started scoring a lot more after Sutter was demoted. Add to that some rumored attitude issues and I am not confident he will do a ton going forward. I do suspect TNSE will give him a chance on the Rock and I hope he works out, but I am not holding my breath.

 

[Grind]

So, shouldn't we be concerned that he hasn't been able to get the confidence of his junior coach? Perhaps his coach just has it in for him, but he was considered a leader on the team. The coach obviously doesn't trust him to produce results in a more prominent role in junior. That is a red flag for a 19 year old, relatively high, 2nd round pick.

sorry I don't know if my wording came off to extreme or what. It IS concerning that he hasn't gotten top line minutes. My point being that could be heavily dependent on things beyond his control, his production within the minutes he has been given on the other hand, is not.

one of these things is positive and one of these things is negative

the positive(production per TOI) is directly tied to the players ability, where the negative(TOI allocated) is a little more up in the air.

thus my logic = a net positive.

If his point totals were primarily secondary assists then it could be said he's getting "luck" points, and his production is being heavily influenced by factors outside his control as well, but that's not the case to the best of my knowledge.

EDIT: I too am not holding my breath. Just merely stating given the amount of knowns and unknowns, his production from his toi IMO is a better indicator then position in the lineup. Do not get this confused with me thinking he has a good chance at turning into something, or believing it was a good pick. I agree with most that it doesn't seem like he's going amount to much- but The Kosmo, Olsen, and Hellbuyck picks are making me feel a little better.

if we can continue to get great value in the third and later rounds, i don't mind whiffing on the second.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

If I recall correctly Sutter started the year on the top line, but he didn't perform and slowly got demoted line by line. I think it was a 3rd of the way through the season when he bottomed out on the 4th line and he has eventually bounced back up to the 3rd.

This is why I am not sure I buy the coaching decision thing. It is worth noting that the team got a lot better and started scoring a lot more after Sutter was demoted. Add to that some rumored attitude issues and I am not confident he will do a ton going forward. I do suspect TNSE will give him a chance on the Rock and I hope he works out, but I am not holding my breath.

That was my understanding as well, but it's a little strange that he didn't work his way back up during that scoring streak he had, not to mention the fact he's seemingly been shut out from the Blades powerplay.

Just seems like there has to be more to this, I can't recall ever seeing a junior player's production drop off that badly in his 19 year old season. I guess it's possible that Chevy and co. outright whiffed on this pick, but I'm going to take a wait and see approach.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Not that I'm doubting, but what were these attitude issues? Never heard about them.

I don't buy into any attitude concerns at all, nor the comment made by another poster earlier in the thread stating that he does not have the trust of coaching. He has been an assistant captain the entire year; guys with attitude issues do not retain letters if attitude is a concern. Guys that the coaches don't trust are also not given positions of responsibility.

 

[truck]

If his point totals were primarily secondary assists then it could be said he's getting "luck" points, and his production is being heavily influenced by factors outside his control as well, but that's not the case to the best of my knowledge.

I looked it up.

ESG: 19
ESA: 19
ESP: 38
PPP: 21


1st Assists: 12
2nd Assists: 19