Prospect Info: Update on Lukas Sutter
- Thread starter Scheifele55
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garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Last season he was getting PP and splitting between 2nd and 3rd line
This season he gets no PP and is splitting between the 3rd and 4th line
He's almost has the same even strength goals as his former teammate Ryan Olsen (who has a ton of PP points on Kelowna's PP1 unit and also is on Kelowna's second line)... if that adds some context to it all.
I also think he has the most ES Gs for non-top line forward on the Blades (could be wrong).
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Well, he certainly has progressed the way you would hope a 2nd round pick would. He's still young, but I think that Chevy might have whiffed on this one. Whatever happens, I hope that the Jets take a balanced approach to drafting players and don't over-emphasis size and grit. They need some high end talent up front in the system as well.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Sok... we got two 2nd round calibre prospects from Kosmachuk and Olsen
Agreed. I just hope that Chevy doesn't deliberately avoid Europeans and pure skill players, even if they aren't that big, especially in the upcoming draft when the Jets have a collection of picks in the first 3 rounds.
I think Chevy missed on this one. You don't take a player like Sutter in the 2nd round when more talented players are on the board. I don't think he'll bring much more to the table than Cormier. I was really hoping we'd take Martin Frk, who is having a great year.
I am going to take a wait and see opinion on Lukas.
Team Canada thought enough of his skill level to invite him to the summer series with Russia.
One thing that surprised me was his weight.
His stats for the draft was 6.1 and 199.
After the draft he was listed at 6.1 and 215.
That is alot of weight gain in a short period of time.
I wonder if he gained to much weight.
He could of trained to hard and gained the wrong type of bulk.
I wonder if he was to lose the 15 lbs and get back to 200lbs if he would be quicker and faster.
Just a guess
Team Canada thought enough of his skill level to invite him to the summer series with Russia.
One thing that surprised me was his weight.
His stats for the draft was 6.1 and 199.
After the draft he was listed at 6.1 and 215.
That is alot of weight gain in a short period of time.
I wonder if he gained to much weight.
He could of trained to hard and gained the wrong type of bulk.
I wonder if he was to lose the 15 lbs and get back to 200lbs if he would be quicker and faster.
Just a guess
The entire Blades team struggled out of the gate this season. They literally crashed and burned in front of the cameras on the Road to Memorial Cup documentary. Sutter's struggles paralleled his team, he was bumped down the line combos. Sutter's production was anemic for the first half of the season and it cost him an invite to the WJ selection camp.
Since the new year, Sutter has turned a page. He is scoring more and playing more consistent. The Blades are on an 18-game winning streak and he is big part of that. He has scored a couple goals coming out of the penalty box, go figure. He is not completely lacking offensive skills. He is not being used for scoring and he does not create offense on his own, needs linemates (which they tried at start of year and it didn't work)
Watching him live, he is a very busy player. Always chipping away at guys and finishing his checks. There are few shifts when he isn't trying to agitate the opponent after the whistle. Just a really feisty player. He drops the mitts a lot and fights whoever. I have never seen him decline a fight and he almost always initiates. He is very good on face-offs. Handles most D zone draws late in the game. I don't know what his faceoff % is but he is very very good at this aspect.
Sutter is now locked into the checking line/shutdown role by Molleken. I don't recall Sutter getting any PP time at all this year. Molleken also sends him out against other team's top 6 so it's not as though guy gets soft minutes. Sutter is a good player but seems to be closer to Brett Sutter than he is to Brandon Sutter.
I agree with the suggestion that we should not draft these type of guys in the 2nd round and focus on skill guys but Sutter's production last year was really impressive and, as it turns out, deceptive.
I think he gets signed to ELC after the Memorial Cup.
Since the new year, Sutter has turned a page. He is scoring more and playing more consistent. The Blades are on an 18-game winning streak and he is big part of that. He has scored a couple goals coming out of the penalty box, go figure. He is not completely lacking offensive skills. He is not being used for scoring and he does not create offense on his own, needs linemates (which they tried at start of year and it didn't work)
Watching him live, he is a very busy player. Always chipping away at guys and finishing his checks. There are few shifts when he isn't trying to agitate the opponent after the whistle. Just a really feisty player. He drops the mitts a lot and fights whoever. I have never seen him decline a fight and he almost always initiates. He is very good on face-offs. Handles most D zone draws late in the game. I don't know what his faceoff % is but he is very very good at this aspect.
Sutter is now locked into the checking line/shutdown role by Molleken. I don't recall Sutter getting any PP time at all this year. Molleken also sends him out against other team's top 6 so it's not as though guy gets soft minutes. Sutter is a good player but seems to be closer to Brett Sutter than he is to Brandon Sutter.
I agree with the suggestion that we should not draft these type of guys in the 2nd round and focus on skill guys but Sutter's production last year was really impressive and, as it turns out, deceptive.
I think he gets signed to ELC after the Memorial Cup.
Gump Hasek
Spleen Merchant
It is far too early in my view to assess whether or not management "whiffed on this one", as you also noted that he is still quite young. Guys progress at different rates. He still projects as a potential 3rd or 4th line energy/checking guy in the NHL right now, is a guy that competes hard, and he is a kid of good character. I think he deserves at least a few years at the pro level in the A prior to assigning any designation toward his future worth.
BTW, while everyone has in the past focused near solely on stats whenever Sutter is discussed on this board, I'd like to add that he is also the assistant captain of a team that has won its past 18 consecutive games.
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Ulf Hullberg
Registered User
Using a 2nd round pick on a slightly bigger,tougher, and more agitating version of Jim Slater was a John Ferguson type move.
Chevy has a lot of picks this June, and I hope he uses them wisely, as this draft could be the TSN turning point for this franchise.
Chevy has a lot of picks this June, and I hope he uses them wisely, as this draft could be the TSN turning point for this franchise.
truck
Registered User
Chevy comes from Chi. It would be awesome to have that kind of system depth. Hopefully he can build it this year.
You don't draft that type of player in the early to mid 2nd round when there are more skilled guys on the board. I like a tough and hard to play against team, but there is a time and a place to draft those types of players.
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
Good luck building a successful team if all your 2nd rounders turn into 3rd/4th liners and bottom pairing d-men.......
Hank Chinaski
Registered User
Exactly.
Sutter was taken in the 2nd round because a) the Jets liked him and b) they obviously figured he wouldn't be around come their 3rd round pick. Given that nearly every draft report I read had Sutter in the top 60, that was probably accurate.
2nd rounders in any draft year are pretty much 50-50 propositions as far as ever playing in the NHL (much less having any kind of NHL career), so I don't buy the wisdom that you don't draft guys projected as grinders there.
If all your 2nd rounders are turning into 3rd/4th liners and bottom pairing d-men, you're doing a pretty damn good job of drafting.
Seriously, take a glance at the 2nd round of any draft year.
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
So now you're going to assume any hard working shutdown centerman taken in the 2nd round are bottom 6 players? And who said anything about bottom pairing defensemen? You also have the 1st round and rounds 3-7 to pick some skill guys too. You're also assuming every 2nd rounder we take now and going forward is going to be of a bottom 6 mold based off OF ONE FREAKING PICK!!!
@hank
I understand that 2nd rounders are a 50/50, however wouldn't you rather take a chance on a skill guy (Frk) over a grinder like Sutter? If they both have a 50/50 shot, I'd take the guy with the higher ceiling everytime. I feel like if Sutter's last name was anything but Sutter many more people would have hated the pick.
I understand that 2nd rounders are a 50/50, however wouldn't you rather take a chance on a skill guy (Frk) over a grinder like Sutter? If they both have a 50/50 shot, I'd take the guy with the higher ceiling everytime. I feel like if Sutter's last name was anything but Sutter many more people would have hated the pick.
truck
Registered User
We read very different draft reports. Nearly everything I read had Sutter getting a 3rd line grade because his ceiling was supposedly 3rd line grinder.
Obviously the Jets liked him, but what sold them is a big question mark. I hope they saw a probable 3rd liner with Lucic like upside rather than just getting caught up in a name or character.
I don't know.
That said, even if I disagree with a draft pick I can't confidently say I was right or wrong for years and years.
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Hank Chinaski
Registered User
Fair point. I know a few people were very high on Frk, I personally was extremely high on Sutter for months before the draft and wanted the Jets to use their 2nd rounder on him.
My overall point was that I don't believe there's anything wrong with taking a guy projected as a grinder in the 2nd round. There are plenty of 'high upside' guys taken in the 2nd round that don't amount to anything.
Pronman? I remember he wasn't very high on Sutter. I think another draft report (maybe Red Line) had him going 3rd round, and I know Renegade Stylings (who has watched every single game Sutter has played and is an awesome source for WHL prospects on HF) thought he might have been taken a round too early. Seems to me that most other reports I read had him between 40 and 60, I may be mistaken.
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truck
Registered User
I really don't recall many that gave him a 2nd line grade. I liked Bozon, Bystrom and Frk in round 2.
That said, what's done is done. I don't understand people dwelling on it. We don't have near enough data to question Chevy's plan or drafting ability.
I think the abundance of picks should help them avoid overvaluing size. Picking size over skill is safe - pure skill tends to be boom or bust more than size. With more picks I'd hope they take more risks and aim at some flashier players in to the 2nd round, while still sticking with good character players who want to be here.
1st rounders are NHL players 50% of the time, 2nd rounders even less. Also, higher ceiling doesn't imply equal shot, in general it means the opposite for players picked in the same round. A physical shutdown guy who knows how to use his size is MUCH more likely to make the NHL than a skilled guy due to the fact he doesn't have to crack the top-6 to be useful.
I'm not arguing that you should draft for bottom-6 needs in the second round but your logic is flawed. It's possible they saw Sutter having some untapped offensive upside or they just didn't like Frk. In the whole size/skill Jets-draft bashing going on here it's worth pointing out that they picked Scheifele over Couturier due to a higher ceiling instead of taking the safer, more bottom-6 ready player.
Gump Hasek
Spleen Merchant
Highly skilled guys taken outside of the very top-end of the draft have a greater chance of flaming out. Jets management were/are dealing with a dearth of legitimate prospects. Rather than swinging for the fences and perhaps getting a home run, in this case they may well have taken a player that they were fairly sure would eventually be a player for them - versus a player in another organization in a lower league, one that had flamed out. It is called building a war chest.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I've been tracking our draft picks: where they were selected, where they were guessed to go, and I also track their statistical progression
For Sutter he was picked 39th
His rankings were:
68 - ISS
45 - Craig Button (I know, I know)
97 - Hockey Prospectus (Pronman)
77 - The Scouting Report
52 - TSN (Bob McKenzie)
63 - The Hockey News
39 (NA skater) - Central Scouting
Please don't take this as an argument on either side, just people were talking about where he was ranked so I thought I should give the info.
That said, he was a riser, as most of those places had him ranked worse the previous ranking.
For Sutter he was picked 39th
His rankings were:
68 - ISS
45 - Craig Button (I know, I know)
97 - Hockey Prospectus (Pronman)
77 - The Scouting Report
52 - TSN (Bob McKenzie)
63 - The Hockey News
39 (NA skater) - Central Scouting
Please don't take this as an argument on either side, just people were talking about where he was ranked so I thought I should give the info.
That said, he was a riser, as most of those places had him ranked worse the previous ranking.
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garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Now to add my own thoughts
I wasn't a huge fan of picking Sutter in the 2nd round as there were picks that I rather have at that time (nothing to do with projection, whatever, just opinion)...
That said I can understand why they did; he was a fast riser, put up some very impressive numbers even when spending a lot of time in the box, and was well known for being one of the hardest workers in the dub. Currently I see his future to be along the lines of Cormier/Machacek, but progression/development is never linear so who knows what the future may hold.
On top of that, I was made happy with Kosmachuk and Olsen picks as they were picks I was looking at previously for the 2nd and 3rd round. So
and we got them in 3rd and 6th...
I wasn't a huge fan of picking Sutter in the 2nd round as there were picks that I rather have at that time (nothing to do with projection, whatever, just opinion)...
That said I can understand why they did; he was a fast riser, put up some very impressive numbers even when spending a lot of time in the box, and was well known for being one of the hardest workers in the dub. Currently I see his future to be along the lines of Cormier/Machacek, but progression/development is never linear so who knows what the future may hold.
On top of that, I was made happy with Kosmachuk and Olsen picks as they were picks I was looking at previously for the 2nd and 3rd round. So
and we got them in 3rd and 6th...
