Prospect Info: Update on Lukas Sutter

[Grind]

I looked it up.

ESG: 19
ESA: 19
ESP: 38
PPP: 21


1st Assists: 12
2nd Assists: 19

this is last year? i was referring to this year./.

 

[truck]

this is last year? i was referring to this year./.

That is last year.


This is this year:
ESG: 11
ESA: 10
ESP: 21
PPP: 2

1st Assists: 3
2nd Assists: 7 - Including at least one that should not have been called an assist.

 

[Grind]

That is last year.


This is this year:
ESG: 11
ESA: 10
ESP: 21
PPP: 2

1st Assists: 3
2nd Assists: 7 - Including at least one that should not have been called an assist.

what's a "healthY' secondary assist ration?

I believe these numbers put it asomewhere around 30% of his total points, is that "luckY" or normal?

 

[garret9]

what's a "healthY' secondary assist ration?

I believe these numbers put it asomewhere around 30% of his total points, is that "luckY" or normal?

I don't know if there is a "healthy" ratio, as with all players, regardless of skill, it greatly fluctuates year to year (check out Wellwood this + last season )

 

[Grind]

I don't know if there is a "healthy" ratio, as with all players, regardless of skill, it greatly fluctuates year to year (check out Wellwood this + last season )

exactly, a point which was brought up alot when talking about expectations for welwood this season> mostly What i'm after is, is he responsible for most of his points, or is he just getting the bounces.

He's doing well scoring a 5v5 given his toi this season and it doesn't appear that a large amount of that is coming from "luckY" secondary assists.

Honestly i have no idea what Lukas is going to do next year, maybe he suprises and has great transition to the rock. Maybe he doesn't even get a contract. its tough to say at thsi point.

 

[surixon]

Highly skilled guys taken outside of the very top-end of the draft have a greater chance of flaming out. Jets management were/are dealing with a dearth of legitimate prospects. Rather than swinging for the fences and perhaps getting a home run, in this case they may well have taken a player that they were fairly sure would eventually be a player for them - versus a player in another organization in a lower league, one that had flamed out. It is called building a war chest.

I think this is exactly what the Jets stratgy has been for late round picks the first two years. I also think you will start to see them move away from it a bit given the progression of some of our late round picks the last few years and the number of picks that we have.

Its also worth noting that we have taken a number of flyers late they just have predomenantly been on defense (Serville and Yuen) and Goaltenders.

 

[hurricanedave]

Exactly.

Sutter was taken in the 2nd round because a) the Jets liked him and b) they obviously figured he wouldn't be around come their 3rd round pick. Given that nearly every draft report I read had Sutter in the top 60, that was probably accurate.

2nd rounders in any draft year are pretty much 50-50 propositions as far as ever playing in the NHL (much less having any kind of NHL career), so I don't buy the wisdom that you don't draft guys projected as grinders there.

I wish, http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?ID=267960 , most second rounders have just over 25% chance of playing 100 games in the nhl. Actually not much better than third rounders who are in the 20-25% range. Heck, the range Sutter was drafted in are on average career ahlers. Of course we see the successful second rounders but for every 2-3 that make it there are 7-8 that don't, we tend to forget about the 7-8 that don't make it.

 

[Grind]

I wish, http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?ID=267960 , most second rounders have just over 25% chance of playing 100 games in the nhl. Actually not much better than third rounders who are in the 20-25% range. Heck, the range Sutter was drafted in are on average career ahlers. Of course we see the successful second rounders but for every 2-3 that make it there are 7-8 that don't, we tend to forget about the 7-8 that don't make it.

you could say this about every round. There's always a lot more busts or players that don't meet expectations then those that do.

 

[hurricanedave]

you could say this about every round. There's always a lot more busts or players that don't meet expectations then those that do.

That's the point, there is always an argument of one player over another. At the end of the day you're just lucky to make a pick that actually makes it.

 

[truck]

That's the point, there is always an argument of one player over another. At the end of the day you're just lucky to make a pick that actually makes it.

I would hope the scouts do a little more that draw a name out of a hat an hope for luck.

 

[Scheifele55]

I feel so many players who were proclaimed busts really aren't. How would Alexandre Daigle have done had he been given a chance to play on a Pittsburgh line with say a Malkin or Crosby.

These "busts" especially drafted top 5 were taken through extensive scouting and possess exceptional skills and that of potential for elite skills in the future. I am someone who believes in giving a player an opportunity to succeed.

Al Montoya is the best example of a player on the Jets who I stated Winnipeg should take a stab at with a minimum salary contract. 8 1/2 years ago he was taken 6th overall and has only played on mediocre NHL teams throughout his career. Even so far he has played in games where the team was lost and now that they have picked up their game Pavelec is playing. I would like to see how he fairs now that the team has started to improve.

 

[garret9]

I would hope the scouts do a little more that draw a name out of a hat an hope for luck.

I've said it on here before:

Drafting is kinda like throwing darts at balloons on the wall filled with different amounts of money, and some empty or just shreds of paper. The throwers are blind folded and they get to have some assistance in people directing their throw. The twist is your assistants all forgot their glasses at home.

The draft picks are the balloons filled with money.
The GM's are throwing part blind and going by advice of their scouts, but no scout definitively knows, only goes by things that they observe, which may or not be correct, and may not be the same thing another scout sees.

 

[Grind]

That's the point, there is always an argument of one player over another. At the end of the day you're just lucky to make a pick that actually makes it.

I would hope the scouts do a little more that draw a name out of a hat an hope for luck.

agree with both. Which is why i try and not get up in arms over our draft picks. Saying what's right/wrong right now is like to blind guys arguing over whose the better painter, we simply don't know.

The other problem is, we will never, ever, ever, know what every teams rankings were, all we ever know is the ranking of teams that passed on a player.

which is waht makes it confounding

ex: carolina passes on player y to draft player x. next up tampa drafts player X.
Player X turns out and player Y doesn't so fans/etc get all up in arms about carolina's crappy scouting and tampas good scouting. But secretly, tampa had player Y ranked higher then player X, they just had to "settle" for him and got lucky.


,...i'm ranting... but I still.. even the teams that are very good at scouting whiff more then they hit.