GDT: UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley/PFL 8

MMC

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Date: August 19, 2023
Venue: TD Garden
City: Boston, Massachusetts
Time: 10 pm ET/7 pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Bantamweight Championship bout: Aljamain Sterling (c) vs. Sean O'Malley
Women's Strawweight Championship bout: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Amanda Lemos
Welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry
Bantamweight bout: Mario Bautista vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
Bantamweight bout: Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

PRELIMINARY CARD (ABC, TSN5)

Middleweight bout: Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares
Middleweight bout: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Dennis Tiuliulin
TUF Lightweight Finale bout: Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh
TUF Bantamweight Finale bout: Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson

EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass)

Middleweight bout: Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Women's Flyweight bout: Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva
Women's Flyweight bout: Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz​
 
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MMC

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Date: August 18, 2023
Venue: The Theater at Madison Square Garden
City: New York City, New York
Time: 9 pm ET/6 pm PT
Viewing: ESPN, TSN

MAIN CARD (ESPN)

Heavyweight playoff bout: Renan Ferreira vs. Maurice Greene
Women's Featherweight playoff bout: Larissa Pacheco vs. Olena Kolesnyk
Heavyweight playoff bout: Denis Goltsov vs. Jordan Heiderman
Women's Featherweight playoff bout: Marina Moknatkhina vs. Amber Leibrock
Featherweight bout: Nathan Kelly vs. Damion Nelson

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+)

Heavyweight bout: Danilo Marques vs. Satoshi Ishii
Featherweight bout: Kaytlin Neil vs. Maira Mazar​
 
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m9

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Date: August 19, 2023
Venue: TD Garden
City: Boston, Massachusetts
Time: 10 pm ET/7 pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Bantamweight Championship bout: Aljamain Sterling (c) vs. Sean O'Malley
Women's Strawweight Championship bout: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Amanda Lemos
Welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry
Bantamweight bout: Cody Garbrandt vs. TBA
Bantamweight bout: Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

PRELIMINARY CARD (ABC, TSN5)

Middleweight bout: Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares
Middleweight bout: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Dennis Tiuliulin
Middleweight bout: Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Women's Flyweight bout: Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva

EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass)

TUF Lightweight Finale bout: Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh
TUF Bantamweight Finale bout: TBA
Women's Flyweight bout: Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz​

Man, injuries have sure killed the UFC card. Nice to have the two title fights and I'm excited to see Weidman back, but losing Vera/Cejudo, Font/Yadong, Garry/Neal and Garbrandt are massive hits.
 

pistolpete11

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Yeah, can't blame the UFC for this one. They tried, but stuff just keeps falling through.

I didn't think I'd care about Sterling-O'Malley, but now that it's here, I'm a little bit excited for it. I'm not convinced that O'Malley beat Yan (I'll have to rewatch that sometime this week), but he did a helluva lot better than I was expecting. I actually like O'Malley's chances against Sterling more than I did going into the Yan fight. I thought Yan would be better than him everywhere. Sterling is clearly the better grappler and his striking is effective enough for his style in MMA, but O'Malley's striking is better and more dangerous. IF he can keep it standing, I think he lights Sterling on fire. Having said that, Aljo took down Cejudo 4 times and O'Malley's TDD is only 60%. I think Aljo gets it to the ground and grinds out the win or finds a sub in R3 or later. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Aljo crack him if O'Malley is selling out to stuff the takedowns too much, a la Khabib-Conor.

There is no doubt in my mind that Weili is a better mixed martial artist than Lemos, but that's not always enough to win. Lemos is as dangerous as they come at SW. Still picking Weili, but it's a fight.

I'm glad to see Weidman make it back. Would hate for a guy to be forced into retirement because of an injury, especially a former champ and someone who seems like genuinely a good dude....but he's 39 years old and was declining long before a devastating injury. Tavares is no spring chicken himself, but still. I hope it's at least competitive and then Weidman retires.

The TUF finales are on the early prelims. I assume this means Conor-Chandler are there this week? I've seen some stuff recently that Dana and Conor seem to be back on board with the Chandler fight. Maybe get an announcement at the press conference or something?
 
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m9

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The TUF finales are on the early prelims. I assume this means Conor-Chandler are there this week? I've seen some stuff recently that Dana and Conor seem to be back on board with the Chandler fight. Maybe get an announcement at the press conference or something?

It's so weird that on Saturday night there were two completely meaningless 185lb fights on the main card and a week later the TUF finale fights are buried on early prelims. Who plans this stuff? I know one of the semi-finalists is from the Boston area so maybe he wins his fight this week so they decided they want the hometown guy on the card.. but still. Really weird booking.

And yeah, the expectation is that Conor/Chandler gets announced in the next week since TUF is done.
 

pistolpete11

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It's so weird that on Saturday night there were two completely meaningless 185lb fights on the main card and a week later the TUF finale fights are buried on early prelims. Who plans this stuff? I know one of the semi-finalists is from the Boston area so maybe he wins his fight this week so they decided they want the hometown guy on the card.. but still. Really weird booking.

And yeah, the expectation is that Conor/Chandler gets announced in the next week since TUF is done.
Preaching to the choir, my friend. I've been complaining about putting interesting fights on the prelims while Fight Nights continue to suffer for a looooong time.
 
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m9

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Date: August 19, 2023
Venue: TD Garden
City: Boston, Massachusetts
Time: 10 pm ET/7 pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Bantamweight Championship bout: Aljamain Sterling (c) vs. Sean O'Malley
Women's Strawweight Championship bout: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Amanda Lemos
Welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry
Bantamweight bout: Cody Garbrandt vs. TBA
Bantamweight bout: Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

PRELIMINARY CARD (ABC, TSN5)

Middleweight bout: Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares
Middleweight bout: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Dennis Tiuliulin
Middleweight bout: Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Women's Flyweight bout: Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva

EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass)

TUF Lightweight Finale bout: Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh
TUF Bantamweight Finale bout: TBA
Women's Flyweight bout: Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz​

Just to correct this - it's not Garbrandt v TBA, he's the one who pulled out.
 
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I am not exposed

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This is going to be fairly easy work for Sterling. He's going to get him down, and O'Malley won't escape (at some point in the fight). Expecting a submission win here from Sterling.
 

m9

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Please tell me this gets bumped to the prelims for Weidman-Tavares....

Doubt they bump Weidman/Tavares up as they never really like to bump the prelim headliner to the main card. But maybe they don't have a choice this time.
 
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Bunk Moreland

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Sheesh, I liked Smotherman coming into this
I did too. I was actually a little surprised that Grigoriou got the call this season never took him as a serious UFC prospect out of all the Serra-Longo guys. He's had a very good streak since his back to back losses but I'm still not sure of his ceiling at this level.
 

pistolpete11

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I'm not convinced that O'Malley beat Yan (I'll have to rewatch that sometime this week), but he did a helluva lot better than I was expecting.
So I just rewatched it and....with the new scoring criteria, I think O'Malley won.

R2 to Yan. R3 to O'Malley. Both guys landed some big shots of their own in each round, but pretty clear in my eyes who won the round.

The split on the cards came down to R1 and I can see why. Not a ton happened. Yan was not very active and hardly landed anything. Got a couple takedowns, but didn't do anything with them. Those takedowns have to be why the judge gave it to him. If they were under the old scoring criteria, I don't hate the scorecard. They were in Abu Dhabi, so who knows what rules they follow. On the other side, O'Malley was a lot more active. Didn't land a ton of consequential stuff, but did land a few nice right hands that I think were enough to take the round.
 
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Bunk Moreland

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On to the fights this upcoming week....

I will be in attendance Friday night for the PFL actually have pretty good seats so I'm looking forward to it... even though it's the weaker of the two playoff cards. Only thing I'm not looking forward to is the infamously poor PFL pacing. With all the down time I worry for my sobriety lol.

UFC...

I'm glad I couldn't make the trip up for this card cause it started off so promising but it's taken some serious hits injury wise the last couple of months.

I like Petroski I think he has some potential good to see he's healthy I was pissed when he dropped off of 288.

Ballsy of Blackshear to fight twice in 7 days but this a way you start to make a name for yourself and stand out.

I'm nervous for Weidman I know enough time as passed I'm just hoping for the best and no injuries.

As one of the dozen or so Aljo fans out there I'm confident he takes this one and moves up.
 

MMC

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On to the fights this upcoming week....

I will be in attendance Friday night for the PFL actually have pretty good seats so I'm looking forward to it... even though it's the weaker of the two playoff cards. Only thing I'm not looking forward to is the infamously poor PFL pacing. With all the down time I worry for my sobriety lol.

UFC...

I'm glad I couldn't make the trip up for this card cause it started off so promising but it's taken some serious hits injury wise the last couple of months.

I like Petroski I think he has some potential good to see he's healthy I was pissed when he dropped off of 288.

Ballsy of Blackshear to fight twice in 7 days but this a way you start to make a name for yourself and stand out.

I'm nervous for Weidman I know enough time as passed I'm just hoping for the best and no injuries.

As one of the dozen or so Aljo fans out there I'm confident he takes this one and moves up.
Interested to hear what you think of PFL in person, after going to UFC and Bellator I've been wanting to go to a PFL card next, god willing they come back to California some time lol
 
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m9

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Yeah I was really hoping to catch one of the PFL cards live in Vegas this year when they did shows there but it didn't work out.

I was actually hoping to catch the Grasso/Shevchenko card in September but I'll just miss it by a few days. I'm going to assume the card on the 23rd will be an Apex show which is too bad as Fiziev/Gamrot & Ige/Mitchell are probably good enough to sell some tickets.
 

m9

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So I just rewatched it and....with the new scoring criteria, I think O'Malley won.

R2 to Yan. R3 to O'Malley. Both guys landed some big shots of their own in each round, but pretty clear in my eyes who won the round.

The split on the cards came down to R1 and I can see why. Not a ton happened. Yan was not very active and hardly landed anything. Got a couple takedowns, but didn't do anything with them. Those takedowns have to be why the judge gave it to him. If they were under the old scoring criteria, I don't hate the scorecard. They were in Abu Dhabi, so who knows what rules they follow. On the other side, O'Malley was a lot more active. Didn't land a ton of consequential stuff, but did land a few nice right hands that I think were enough to take the round.

Re-watching the fight, are you even more concerned about O'Malley's TDD defense v Sterling?

I think there's a decent chance it's not even competitive and Sterling just tosses O'Malley on his back as many times as he needs to.
 

VanillaCoke

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I don't think O'Malley has any chance, will probably bet heavy on Sterling and Tavares.
(Maybe Zhang too)
 

pistolpete11

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Apr 27, 2013
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Re-watching the fight, are you even more concerned about O'Malley's TDD defense v Sterling?

I think there's a decent chance it's not even competitive and Sterling just tosses O'Malley on his back as many times as he needs to.
Maybe a little, but I already thought that was the most likely scenario.

I will say for O'Malley, he didn't look lost on the ground. He was able to get back up a few times and didn't take a ton of damage while down there. I think Sterling is a slightly better grappler than Yan, though, and I don't think he's going to be as willing to strike with him as Yan was.

The key to the fight in my mind is O'Malley staying off the cage. If he lets Sterling push him against the cage, that's a wrap. Sterling will control him there, dump him on the ground a few times, and just methodically beat on him. If O'Malley can keep it in the center, he has a fighting chance.
 
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