I've got something to do Saturday, but hopefully I'm home in time for the main card. Maybe not the most relevant fights outside of the top 2, but big names and they should all be fun.
Poirier-Gaethje - I know some people thought the original BMF thing was lame (I might have too) but at least looking back on it, it was kind of cool to see Nate make the UFC do something they typically don't like to do. But now, the UFC has co-opted it. At least they picked the 2 most deserving guys in the UFC to fight for it, I guess.
I can't wait for this fight. After Poirier-Conor 2, I really wanted Poirier to win the LW belt because a) I like Poirier and b) It would have set up this fight for the LW belt. There is absolutely zero chance this fight can disappoint barring an injury or eye poke or something like that (*knockonwood). I'm pulling for Poirier, but I have no idea who wins. I will say I think the "Gaethje is a different fighter" thing is a bit overstated. Yes, it's true he doesn't take as much damage now as he did back then, but taking that damage allowed him to apply pressure and deliver damage of his own. If he gets into a more technical kickboxing fight with Poirier, is that necessarily a good thing? Maybe, I guess we'll see.
Jan-Pereira - Clear path to victory for Jan is to take him down like he did to Izzy. He does have a few sub wins in the UFC. I think he'd be smart to go for 1 here because standing with Pereira is playing with fire. I could see Jan winning by KO, too, though. Pereira was knocked out cold less than 4 months ago, moving up in weight, and Jan does have 1 punch KO power. Pereira is such a monster, though. Toss up in my mind. Head says Jan since he has more ways to win, but gut says Pereira.
Wonderboy-other Pereira - In his prime, this would be easy for me to pick Wonderboy. Just the far superior technician who doesn't put himself into danger very often. I think Pereira would struggle to land, get desperate, and then walk into something. At 40 years old, it's a much tougher pick, though, but I'm still gonna go with Wonderboy. Should be a fun one.
Ferguson-Green - If Tony's going to fight, this is at least an appropriate matchup IMO. Big enough name that it's not sad, but not the top guys he's been fighting and losing to for the last 3 years (minus Nate). Despite some of the results, Green still looks good, though. I expect him to put it on Tony.
Chiesa-Holland - Has quietly been almost a 2 year layoff for Chiesa. I've never been much of a believer, but he does have some big name wins on his resume (Magny, RDA, Condit, Dariush, Jim Miller). Holland's TDD sucks which could be a problem against a grappler like Chiesa, but he should be the much bigger guy so it might be hard to hold him down. He's also a Lutter black belt and despite being known for his grappling, Chiesa has been submitted 4 times in the UFC. More active, size advantage, more ways to win, I'm going with Holland.
It's a little bit sad to see Lewis on the prelims and not even the featured fight on the prelims.
