Value of: UFA John Carlson. Does he walk or Caps will lock him up?

[FameFlame069]

7.7M for 8 with Caps or 8.5M/7 for any other team, maybe he chooses to go to TB or Pitts(a big contender) for a 2 year 5-6M deal just to try winning a cup, who knows what he wants more? A cup or a big huge payday?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

7.7M for 8 with Caps or 8.5M/7 for any other team, maybe he chooses to go to TB or Pitts(a big contender) for a 2 year 5-6M deal just to try winning a cup, who knows what he wants more? A cup or a big huge payday?

No one does that in their prime when they just hit UFA for the first time. I guarantee he goes for the payday, no matter where it is.

 

[Melkor]

Giving 8M to Carlson would be one of the biggest mistakes Mclellan done as a GM. Plain and simple he is not worth it. The biggest question mark about Carlson is and always was his skating. I afraid he got something like Garrison written over him. Huge shot and nothing else. The workhorse for sure but losing too many battles for pucks in own zone and cant contain the best opposing forwards. Inacceptable for a guy wanting that much. Id rather trade his rights in June to a best bidder and run away with anything that return is.

 

[Zezel22]

I think he stays in Washington in a deal that gets done in late June a la Stamkos. I think Washington has gotten their cap situation just enough under control to get it done.

Ironically, unloading Johanssen to NJ is one of the big steps in doing that. That move seemed like a absolute robbery at the time for NJ and now it appears that may not be the case. NJ is a team that desperately needs Carlson and it is ironic if their Johanssen trade is one that helps Washington keep him. Johanssen is now a full blown concussion case, a guy that may never be the same (see Clowe, Ryan), and even if he returns the same, you can't count on him or invest in him as a long term piece after hes missed essentially an entire year with head injuries. You are just waiting on the next one.

If Carlson somehow does get free I think NJ could really factor. Despite this slide here at the end, there is alot of positive momentum in that program right now around speed and youth. They have an MVP type player, a stud teenage center and are ahead of schedule. Carlson grew up in NJ, attended high school at St Joseph of Metuchen approx 15 minutes from Prudential Center, played youth hockey at the Prudential Center. Whenever the Caps play in NJ there is a huge "John Carlson Fan Club" contingent at the game. And they need his services desperately. They were also reportedly the high bidders on Shattenkirk last year (bullet dodged) - which if true would indicate their desire to go buy a top defenseman.

 

[Cor]

I think he’ll be looking for around the 9M that Subban makes

 

[Kaibur]

Seems like Washington will need to move Orpik if they're re-signing Carlson long term, right? If so, they should call the Coyotes and try to dump Orpik instead of buying him out.

Orpik + pick for Bolland's LTIR contract + later pick

 

[shortfuze]

No one does that in their prime when they just hit UFA for the first time. I guarantee he goes for the payday, no matter where it is.

Didn’t kariya and selanne do it? I know I know. 20 years ago.

 

[shortfuze]

Seems like Washington will need to move Orpik if they're re-signing Carlson long term, right? If so, they should call the Coyotes and try to dump Orpik instead of buying him out.

Orpik + pick for Bolland's LTIR contract + later pick

Does insurance pay for bolland?

 

[DrJustice]

Can't see the Caps letting him go as they don't seem to have any replacement for him.

I bet they overpay to keep him away from free agency.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Didn’t kariya and selanne do it? I know I know. 20 years ago.

They're HOF players who were certain that their peak performance was repeatable. That also happened before the cap era. It would be foolish for a guy like Carlson to leave money on the table in 2018.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Seems like Washington will need to move Orpik if they're re-signing Carlson long term, right? If so, they should call the Coyotes and try to dump Orpik instead of buying him out.

Orpik + pick for Bolland's LTIR contract + later pick

I thought of that the other day too. Orpik could take his intangibles to Arizona to help a young Coyotes cast

 

[wintersej]

With the expected cap range at 78-82 million, if he makes it to UFA, some will pay him something insane.

 

[wintersej]

He can come to Detroit for 7 years $49 million give or take.

I think everyone can beat that especially with how bad Detroit is

Detroit is bad, and has some bad contracts, but a lot will change over 7 years. 7x7 won't get close to getting it done with the cap expected to be between 78 and 82 million, though.

 

[Erndog]

They're HOF players who were certain that their peak performance was repeatable. That also happened before the cap era. It would be foolish for a guy like Carlson to leave money on the table in 2018.

Hossa signed for 1 year with Detroit to chase a Cup.

It's super rare though yeah.

 

[rt]

Does insurance pay for bolland?

I believe 80%.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Hossa signed for 1 year with Detroit to chase a Cup.

It's super rare though yeah.

It's true, but after that the Blackhawks signed him for a million years.

 

[Erndog]

It's true, but after that the Blackhawks signed him for a million years.

yes, but that's the argument that dude was trying to make with Carlsson

Sign 1-2 years, chase a Cup, then go for the long term high money deal.

Won't happen though.

Having said that it WILL happen again sometime.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Detroit is bad, and has some bad contracts, but a lot will change over 7 years. 7x7 won't get close to getting it done with the cap expected to be between 78 and 82 million, though.

Agree it'll probably be at least 7x8 as an opening bid with Carlson after all he's having a great year this year with 60+ point season and Detroit is a bad team but if they're willing to give him his asking price you never know it's not like the Caps are going to win a cup any time soon.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

yes, but that's the argument that dude was trying to make with Carlsson

Sign 1-2 years, chase a Cup, then go for the long term high money deal.

Won't happen though.

Having said that it WILL happen again sometime.

Oh yeah, we agree on that. Carlson isn't a proven great player like Hossa was. To be honest, as a Caps fan, I can tell you that this season will likely be Carlson's best and he knows that he has to bank on a career year.

 

[trick9]

i dont see him going anywhere. caps can give him the 8 mil he wants, even before the cap goes up. just means chandler stephenson replaces jay beagle as 4C

No idea where you got that. GM's always say that ''we're going to do everything we can to keep this guy'' to cover their own asses.

This is another recent quote from Brian MacLellan:

Via The Athletic:

“It’s tough because we have to go in and balance what we have to pay him, (Tom) Wilson and other roster decisions,” Capitals GM Brian MacLellan told The Athletic. “It’s going to come to a point where we have this much to spend. We really like the player, we really like the season.”
MacLellan said there have been some contract conversations but this is likely an offseason decision for the Capitals, who have quietly set themselves up for another Metro division title.
“I’m assuming he’s going to say yes or no and ‘I’m going to see what’s out there. If I can get $8 million somewhere else …’” MacLellan said. “I don’t know. That’s me reading the tea leaves. They haven’t come out and said that. They want to sign, I want to sign.”

That doesn't scream to me that they are willing to give him 8m AAV even though he's having a career year. Not to mention that someone desperate enough might go even above that number to sign him from open market.​

 

[wintersej]

Agree it'll probably be at least 7x8 as an opening bid with Carlson after all he's having a great year this year with 60+ point season and Detroit is a bad team but if they're willing to give him his asking price you never know it's not like the Caps are going to win a cup any time soon.

Det is an O6 team with good ownership and a new arena and will add a good foundational player this draft. Teams can turn it around fast in a cap league. Carlson could absolutely be sold by Detroit's front office.

Think it takes closer to 9 million to get his autograph on the dotted line if he hits the market, though. Big jump in cap and only a couple really worthwhile UFAs means someone is going to do something dumb.

 

[CanadienShark]

Incredible how some of these pending ufa's know how to peak at the right moment.

Suddenly van Riemsdyk keeps scoring goals as well.

How can it be sudden if you're already doing it?

 

[Kaibur]

Does insurance pay for bolland?

I thought of that the other day too. Orpik could take his intangibles to Arizona to help a young Coyotes cast

I believe 80%.

I think it's something like $1.25M in actual cash that's not covered by insurance on Bolland. Orpik's buyout is $3M, plus the cap hit.

Orpik + WSH 1st for Bolland's contract + MIN 2nd. Capitals save some cash and cap, and get some maneuvering room to fit Carlson. Coyotes jump 20 spots or so in the draft and get an affordable upgrade on Schenn.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

If he hits the market I want Toronto to lock him up, we have a hole in our top 4 and he fills that need

IF he wants to win the Cup, he signs with the Leafs. That seems to a popular statement lately in certain circles.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Different situations, but I wonder if watching Green and Alzner (and Shattenkirk, to whatever extent he means anything to Carlson) leave for greener pastures will come into consideration here. Green and Alzner chased the money and spent (or will spend) the majority or entirety of their new contracts on terrible teams. Washington has busted in the playoffs every year but for the past decade they've consistently won and made the playoffs... the Adam Oates years notwithstanding. Lots to consider for JC here.