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Crown Yzerman GM of the century if he pulled off that kind of haul for Johnson
Value of: Tyler Johnson
- Thread starter Todd1a
- Start date
Crown Yzerman GM of the century if he pulled off that kind of haul for Johnson
Ignoring your continued immaturity with the personal attacks (and you say I’m the one being an ass!), let’s look at our top six defensemen from the end of the season and through the postseason:
Hedman-Girardi
McDonagh-Stralman
Coburn-Sergachev
Now let’s see what that looks like after next season, when four of those six will become UFAs:
Hedman-???
???-Sergachev
???-???
Assuming he continues to progress Sergachev will likely have secured a spot in our top four by then, but that still leaves us two top four and two bottom pairing defensemen short. Given their ages and the decline in their play I don’t see either Coburn or Girardi being brought back and McDonagh thus far has shown nothing to merit the sort of money or term he’s likely to get on his next deal. I could see us possibly bringing Stralman back on a short term deal if he wants to stay in Tampa rather than maximize his final contract, but that’s not guaranteed to happen and even if it does and he’s still playing at at least a middle pairing level that still leaves us needing one top four D-man and two bottom pairing ones.
So who will fill those roles? Keep in mind that we’re trying to win the Cup every year for the foreseeable future so we can’t afford to jeopardize that in the name of player development. Foote, Cernak, and Masin all have potential and it’s possible albeit unlikely that one of Koekkoek or (ugh) Dotchin might manage to stick around for one last chance to show us something, but how many of those guys can we afford to give significant NHL playing time to next season without it hurting our Cup chances? And which of those guys are you prepared to say will be ready for a top four role the year after?
Potty John
PJ
VoluntaryDom
Formerly DominicBoltsFan / Ⓐ / ✞
He’s been brought up before. Fine player but he only has two years left on his deal. I’d do something around Miller + for him (a Flames fan in another thread mentioned Miller + Coburn for Brodie which would work for me) but if I’m trading Johnson I want somebody with more term.
I believe Yzerman will try and re-sign McDonagh as early as July, he hinted towards keeping him around already. Stralman is iffy and will take longer to decide on, depending on the development of Cernak and Foote. There are a ton of events that could happen between now and next offseason, I think it's a mistake to try and decipher how the roster will look that far ahead. What I do know is that our defensive unit is a top 5 unit already and there is a whole season to determine who stays and who goes without trading for contingency plans like Brodie.
Not sure I agree. He's never been a great skater, and it feels like he defers to his teammates a little much. If he were a winger, I wouldn't mind trying him with Stamkos.
Planning for the future is what a smart GM does; considering this is a forum dedicated to people discussing either what they think their team’s GM will do or what they would do in his shoes I would think it would only be logical for us to also look beyond the next season. It’s fine if you don’t want to examine beneath the surface but don’t be surprised when some of us do, especially considering that the season after next is not exactly looking that far ahead.
And no, we don’t need to make all the decisions this summer, but once Johnson is either traded or his NTC kicks in our options become severely limited. First, because he represents our best remaining trade chip with which to acquire a good and reasonably young defenseman who can solidify a spot in our top four for the next several years, whether that’s an established top four guy with term or a younger guy who can grow into the role. I wanted us to use Howden and/or Hajek for that purpose but instead we wasted them along with two high picks on two years of McDonagh. With them gone Johnson’s now our best available trade chip; if we choose to keep him or to trade him for something else then we probably don’t have anybody left who we’d be willing to move and who could bring back the defenseman we need.
Second, because his contract represents cap space that could otherwise be spent on a top four defenseman acquired via free agency, whether it’s resigning one of our guys or bringing someone else in. Hedman and Sergachev will cover two top four spots and we’ll have enough cap space for Stralman or a similarly-priced replacement (assuming one is available), but we can’t afford another high-priced defenseman without one of our high-priced forwards going out (and Callahan’s and Miller’s cap hits are already accounted for in this analysis - it would need to be Johnson, Palat, or Killorn to free up the necessary cap space.)
In short, whether the plan is to trade for the defenseman we need or to sign him in free agency, our options become limited once we choose either to keep Johnson or to trade him for something else. That doesn’t mean we have to trade TJ for a defenseman, but it does mean we need to be aware of the impact that our decision regarding him will have on our defense going forward.
And finally I think you’re drastically overestimating the strength of our defensive corps. Hedman is a great player and Sergachev looks to have a bright future ahead of him, but the other four all have issues. Stralman’s been a rock for us but he’s showing signs of slowing down. McDonagh has games where he moves the puck well but his turnovers around the blue line and his poor play in his own zone are downright Sustresque at times. Coburn had a brutal regular season before redeeming himself in the playoffs, while Girardi had a decent regular season and a lousy postseason. Stralman will be 32 to start next season, Coburn 33, and Girardi 34. So the idea that we don’t need to be concerned about strengthening our blue line just seems absurd to me, especially considering the potential replacements within the organization all have little (Koekkoek) to no (Foote, Cernak, Masin) NHL experience. That’s why I’m saying we need somebody to bridge the gap - somebody further along in his development than our prospects but young enough and with enough term not to need replacing himself in the near future.
What's Janmark looking for in a new deal? He just had a career year and only has I believe 1 year left as an RFA so he'll want to be getting a nice check soon. The 13th pick is a good piece too. Now the bad, Spezza is terrible and insanely overpaid which would almost kill the deal for me. Gurianov I don't see the top 6 upside anymore, if he can improve his consistency he'll be a good 3rd liner but nothing special as we have plenty of wings as good as him.
Make it Honka instead of Gurianov and retain on Spezza. We can't take on Spezza plus the Janmark raise which might be 2.5 so we add 5mil when already near the top in cap. Retain 1.5 and I'd consider it.
Bjornar Moxnes
Stem Rødt og Felix Unger Sörum
Likewise I wouldn't do Miller + for Brodie unless that + is better than Miller which you'd decline so yeah.
I don't think there's much of a difference in the two, as in regards to what they'd be for us. Both would just be a 3C or great 4C if Cirelli beats them out. Don't see either cracking the top 6 and I believe Janmark could be signed for less than what Faksa will get on his new deal so would be the cheaper option going forward. Faksa is the better defensively with the offensive edge to Janmark.
That's what I'd want him for, 3C. I think he's vastly superior to Janmark in the role and actually takes faceoffs with some moderate success. Still has team control when his contract is up in two years if we want to reevaluate his usefulness or deal him off.
As an aside, Spezza is a beast in the circle. His contract would be killer if it were longer than a year due to the Kucherov and Point contracts, but for a single year? Sign me up, put his playmaking ability between Kucherov and Stamkos and let him win some cheap control in the dots. All of that and we still set ourselves up past next season. Honka instead of Gurianov would make it a perfect deal.
Depends on who we get - which side he plays and whether he’s an established top four d-man or a younger guy who looks like he can grow into the role. It also depends on what we do with Coburn and Girardi in the offseason (I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of those guys get traded, especially if we bring in somebody younger and better from outside the organization) and which of our prospects look the most ready for the NHL.
But while the specifics may vary, the overall objectives for next season remain the same. First and foremost I don’t want to bet our Cup chances on Coburn and Girardi playing well. Coburn was hot garbage for most of last season and while he had a solid postseason I’m not so sure that wasn’t due in large part to the play of his partner Sergachev; Girardi hasn’t quite fallen off the cliff to the extent Coburn has but while he can block shots and kill penalties he is absolute garbage at moving the puck. Neither one of those guys should be anywhere near our top four and ideally we’d trade one and push the other to a rotation with one of our rookies on the bottom pairing.
The second thing we want to do is to continue Serg’s development, which means giving him top four ice time at some point. The question is who to pair him with. Hedman makes no sense: if Serg struggles he’ll weigh Hedman down and if he excels we’d benefit more from having them on separate pairings. But pairing him with McDonagh concerns me due to McD’s defensive and turnover issues. Ideally we’d have a solid stay-at-home defenseman on the left side to pair with Serg, but I’m not sure if McD can adapt to that role and if we brought in such a player it would mean bumping McD down to the third pairing which would be a massive waste of a guy we spent premium assets to acquire. We could move Serg back to the left and reunite him with Stralman, but unless we’re going to play McDonagh on his off hand side (which he’s not very good at) and pair him with Hedman that would again mean bumping him down to the third pairing (and besides I like Serg on the right and would prefer to keep him there while he develops rather than bounce him back and forth.)
(You’ll notice by the way that we have the same problem of where to play Serg once he’s ready for top four duty regardless of whether or not we bring in another defenseman; the primary difference with bringing someone else in is the degree of flexibility we have to move guys around without having to put Coburn or Girardi in the top four.)
And finally we want to start getting our prospects some NHL experience. With a top five consisting of Hedman, Stralman, Sergachev, McDonagh, and the proposed new addition to our defensive corps, that leaves the sixth spot for a rotation between whichever of Coburn and Girardi remains and whichever of our prospects earns the privilege. Ideally this prospect eventually takes the #6 spot for himself and pushes the veteran to the press box, but if not we’ve at least got the veteran so we don’t have to rely on a struggling rookie defenseman in the playoffs.
Where you really see the value of the proposed addition to our defensive corps next season is at the bottom pairing. As things stand, assuming Serg moves into the top four at some point and that we want to keep Coburn and Girardi out of it, that would mean a bottom pairing consisting of either Coburn and Girardi (with a prospect rotating in) or, if one of Coburn and Girardi is traded, the one who remains and a prospect. Either of those combinations should scare you given the very real possibility of the wheels coming off the veterans and the prospect going through growing pains - we could very well have another Carle-Sustr on our hands. By bringing in another quality defenseman we’ll have at least one fairly solid player carrying the bottom pairing and the veteran/prospect combo at the #6 spot gives us a fallback if the prospect struggles or the veteran falls off a cliff; even if both happen we’ll at least have a solid player on the pairing who can cover for whichever one we go with.
Then the following season we have Hedman, Serg, and the new guy under contract and in our top four. We can see about bringing Stralman back to complete the top four if he’s still playing well and wants to stay in Tampa, and we’ll hopefully have a prospect with a year’s experience under his belt and feeling comfortable in the NHL (or depending on how things shake out maybe we’ll rotate a couple guys between the NHL and AHL to get multiple prospects some experience.) Without the proposed new addition we’d probably be looking at asking the prospect who saw his first NHL ice time the year before to jump straight into our top four at this point, but in this scenario that isn’t necessary.
So that’s how I see it working out. How do you see the next couple of years going if we don’t bring somebody else in?
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For the foreseeable future I think there is a 50-50 chance Yzerman finds a suitor for Coburn and he's replaced with either Masin or Koekkoek. Dotchin replaces Sustr as the popcorn server.
After next season Girardi leaves too and is replaced by Cernak. McD is given at least a 4 year deal and Stralman a 2 year deal to help ween in the younger players.
I think the biggest move has already happened with Bowness being fired. You also can't rule out the possibility that Karlsson shows interest in coming here, in which case you can take this plan wad it up and toss it in the trash.
After next season Girardi leaves too and is replaced by Cernak. McD is given at least a 4 year deal and Stralman a 2 year deal to help ween in the younger players.
I think the biggest move has already happened with Bowness being fired. You also can't rule out the possibility that Karlsson shows interest in coming here, in which case you can take this plan wad it up and toss it in the trash.
Aoko
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