Proposal: Trouba Mega-Thread Part III

[Kraken Jokes]

LD Del Zotto (26, 3.88M, 1yr - UFA)
LD Sanheim (20, .863M, 3yr - RFA)
W Read (30, 3.63M, 2yr - UFA)


RD Trouba (22, unsigned RFA)
LW/C Lowry (23, 1.13M, 2yr - RFA)

Winnipeg would be taking on approximately 1.5M (depending on what Trouba's contract) with Philly saving the same amount to give them extra space under the cap. I'm not sure it makes Philly better this year but it could, it definitely helps them in the long-term adding 2 good young players. Sanheim is the main piece going to Winnipeg. A high end LD prospect who may still need seasoning. Del Zotto is more than capable of holding down the top line LD in the meantime and Winnipeg has the option to resign him longer. Read is added to make the deal possible for Philly and even out the trade value.

Del Zotto - Byfuglien
Enstrom - Myers
Stuart - Chiarot

Gostisbehere - Trouba
Schultz - Streit
Provorov - Gudas

 

[Pongs21]

LD Del Zotto (26, 3.88M, 1yr - UFA)
LD Sanheim (20, .863M, 3yr - RFA)
W Read (30, 3.63M, 2yr - UFA)


RD Trouba (22, unsigned RFA)
LW/C Lowry (23, 1.13M, 2yr - RFA)

Winnipeg would be taking on approximately 1.5M (depending on what Trouba's contract) with Philly saving the same amount to give them extra space under the cap. I'm not sure it makes Philly better this year but it could, it definitely helps them in the long-term adding 2 good young players. Sanheim is the main piece going to Winnipeg. A high end LD prospect who may still need seasoning. Del Zotto is more than capable of holding down the top line LD in the meantime and Winnipeg has the option to resign him longer. Read is added to make the deal possible for Philly and even out the trade value.

Del Zotto - Byfuglien
Enstrom - Myers
Stuart - Chiarot

Gostisbehere - Trouba
Schultz - Streit
Provorov - Gudas

No need for Read in this proposal in exchange for Lowry, so I'd take them out. Depending on how the Jets view Sanheim, I think it could be a solid start to a discussion.

 

[Curufinwe]

Some other Philly contract has to be going back unless you expect Trouba to sign for $4m.

 

[Pongs21]

Some other Philly contract has to be going back unless you expect Trouba to sign for $4m.

That's fair, however I still would not be including Lowry.

 

[Curufinwe]

What about Burmistrov?

 

[57special]

So, if a trade for Trouba is to take place, who would Jets fans want back, realistically?

 

[trebendan]

What about Burmistrov?

Possibly, but for the Jets, Copp might work better (and maybe for the Flyers, too).

 

[cneely]

I don't care what has been said about Trouba. I didn't say anything about him, other than that I'm not saying anything about the trade proposal. What someone else thinks of Trouba has nothing to do with what I said. Claiming Bigras was arguably one of the worst Dmen in the league because of some fancy stats is just plain msguided. It's a perfect example of someone looking at stats and forming an opinion based on that. But these stats are not always accurate in judging how good a player is.

I never suggested you cared about what was said about Trouba. I was simply drawing a parallel between your excuses for Bigras' poor play and the misguided statements about Trouba. Despite carrying his boat anchor, Trouba actually performed well.

Fancy stats don't always tell the story, and sometimes context can be missing, but they are certainly a piece of the puzzle. Similarly, you can't just look at offensive stats (which are subject to far more "noise" than fancy stats) and draw a conclusion. Trouba has been a damn fine defenceman over the last 3 years and has certainly not "regressed".

 

[MardyBum]

So, if a trade for Trouba is to take place, who would Jets fans want back, realistically?

We all have different opinions.

For myself, I don't think we'll get an equal value LHD, so i'd either want a young NHL LHD with good upside who isn't as good as Trouba and a + (a D prospect, can play either side/doesn't matter to me, or draft picks), or an older roster LHD who can contribute now in a bottom pairing and a really good D prospect.


Examples (not saying I want these trades) would be like above, Del Zotto( though it'd be nice if he had another year) + Sanheim, or something like Maata and a pick/s.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I never suggested you cared about what was said about Trouba. I was simply drawing a parallel between your excuses for Bigras' poor play and the misguided statements about Trouba. Despite carrying his boat anchor, Trouba actually performed well.

Fancy stats don't always tell the story, and sometimes context can be missing, but they are certainly a piece of the puzzle. Similarly, you can't just look at offensive stats (which are subject to far more "noise" than fancy stats) and draw a conclusion. Trouba has been a damn fine defenceman over the last 3 years and has certainly not "regressed".

Funny how it's "excuses" for Bigras but "misguided statements" about Trouba.

Certainly they are not a piece of the puzzle. Sometimes these stats are assbackwards from how good a player actually is. You stat lovers really need to realize that.

 

[wintersej]

We all have different opinions.

For myself, I don't think we'll get an equal value LHD, so i'd either want a young NHL LHD with good upside who isn't as good as Trouba and a + (a D prospect, can play either side/doesn't matter to me, or draft picks), or an older roster LHD who can contribute now in a bottom pairing and a really good D prospect.


Examples (not saying I want these trades) would be like above, Del Zotto( though it'd be nice if he had another year) + Sanheim, or something like Maata and a pick/s.

Spooner + Zboril + 1st?

 

[lomiller1]

Funny how it's "excuses" for Bigras but "misguided statements" about Trouba.

Because it’s something we can test. In Bigras’s case the numbers go the wrong way, the players Bigras is supposedly “babysitting†get better when they don’t have to play with him. In fact nearly everyone on the team got better when they didn’t have to play with Bigras. I’m not saying he can’t improve, and it’s not the largest of sample sizes, but given what he’s show so far he has to improve a lot to even be a bottom pairing guy.

Conversely the guy Trouba was babysitting has made everyone he’s played with worse for the better part of the last decade. If you exclude the time he spends on the ice with Mark Stuart, Trouba has some of the best possession numbers of any D-man in the NHL. Not only do the numbers go the right way, when he’s not paired with Stuart Trouba doesn’t just perform as a top pairing D he performs as a #1D, right now as a 22 year old is a year where he’s supposedly regressed.

Certainly they are not a piece of the puzzle. Sometimes these stats are assbackwards from how good a player actually is. You stat lovers really need to realize that.

The stats are what they are. If they conflict with what you think you see and there is nothing in the data that can help explain the discrepancy (EG Trouba having #1 D talent but performing worse because he's paired with someone really bad) the reason for the discrepancy is almost certainly that you are not looking at the right things and therefor are not able to identify which player is good and which isn't.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Because it’s something we can test. In Bigras’s case the numbers go the wrong way, the players Bigras is supposedly “babysitting†get better when they don’t have to play with him. In fact nearly everyone on the team got better when they didn’t have to play with Bigras. I’m not saying he can’t improve, and it’s not the largest of sample sizes, but given what he’s show so far he has to improve a lot to even be a bottom pairing guy.

I'm not even sure where to begin, the methods you used in your assessment, your desire to stick to them like gospel or your headstrong intent on keeping this charade going. Bigras was a rookie defender that hardly played enough games or minutes for any numbers to be relevant. If there's any defender on the Avs worth taming the hype about it is Zadorov, Bigras is at his level for different reasons.

Bigras had a very successful season, demonstrated poise with and without the puck. His biggest weakness right now is how passive he plays, he's comfortable with the puck but definitely leans towards playing without it. This puts a lot of focus on his partner to handle the breakouts and offensive duties. Whatever your numbers are that are supposedly better, you might want to actually explain them instead of just point to the "numbers" constantly.

 

[cneely]

Funny how it's "excuses" for Bigras but "misguided statements" about Trouba.

Certainly they are not a piece of the puzzle. Sometimes these stats are assbackwards from how good a player actually is. You stat lovers really need to realize that.

Pointing out that they each tow around a boat anchor is not misguided, its an excuse for both players. Stating that Trouba has "regressed" is misguided. To be honest I didn't see enough of Bigras last year to comment one way or another.

It's a little shortsighted to bury your head in the sand and pretend that advanced stats don't mean something although how much faith we put in them is up in the air I suppose. I am far from a stat lover but can certainly recognize that they have merit and can indicate the quality of play in the same way goals and assists can. It's simply data.

 

[Hunter368]

So, if a trade for Trouba is to take place, who would Jets fans want back, realistically?

Good question, I'm sure each fan might slightly vary. Myself on the highend/ideal return I've seen offered by other fans was Gardiner+ or Krug+.

Depending on how Josh M does in TC and lhd availability the return ask might change. If Josh steals the top 4 spot (had a great camp, good chance the job might be his t start season), Chevy then could take the BPA, same goes if no good lhd available this opens up many more trades for forwards.

 

[haveandare]

Funny how it's "excuses" for Bigras but "misguided statements" about Trouba.

Certainly they are not a piece of the puzzle. Sometimes these stats are assbackwards from how good a player actually is. You stat lovers really need to realize that.

Can you provide an example of the stats being backward from how a player actually is?

 

[tbcwpg]

Spooner + Zboril + 1st?

Don't really need forwards, especially as the main piece. If it's not an equal value LHD, it needs to include an LHD who can play now, and Spooner has no place on the roster right now. The only lefties Boston has that can realistically contribute this year are Chara (not gonna happen) and Krug.

 

[lomiller1]

So, if a trade for Trouba is to take place, who would Jets fans want back, realistically?

See my post a page or two back.
The starting requirement is that the player need to be able to contribute at the levels below for at least 5 years. IOW they need to be young and have term or control but still be ready to step into the role . In order of preference:
A top pairing LHD who can fit in beside Buff immediately
A top paring RHD with the potential to eventually replace Buff as #1.
Possibly an upgrade over Brian Little (IOW a proven, young #1 C)
Possibly an established elite W

Only the first 2 are actually needs, the second 2 are nice to haves. Anything else we already have in the organization so there isn’t much value from a Jets perspective as it would just get lost on wavers or rot in a depth role even if it were more valuable that than to the team giving it up.

As you can see, because the Jets have such a deep young talent base there just isn’t much teams can offer us that actually make us better. Meanwhile Trouba himself fits our needs almost exactly. It’s going to be very hard to make a trade, which is why I think that at the end of the day Trouba is going to be forced to play for the Jets for at least another year or two, and maybe the situation changes or a trade opportunity comes up.

Holding out was a serious miscalculation IMO, as there is no pressure on the Jets to make the trades teams are offering.

 

[Hunter368]

See my post a page or two back.
The starting requirement is that the player need to be able to contribute at the levels below for at least 5 years. IOW they need to be young and have term or control but still be ready to step into the role . In order of preference:
A top pairing LHD who can fit in beside Buff immediately
A top paring RHD with the potential to eventually replace Buff as #1.
Possibly an upgrade over Brian Little (IOW a proven, young #1 C)
Possibly an established elite W

Only the first 2 are actually needs, the second 2 are nice to haves. Anything else we already have in the organization so there isn’t much value from a Jets perspective as it would just get lost on wavers or rot in a depth role even if it were more valuable that than to the team giving it up.

As you can see, because the Jets have such a deep young talent base there just isn’t much teams can offer us that actually make us better. Meanwhile Trouba himself fits our needs almost exactly. It’s going to be very hard to make a trade, which is why I think that at the end of the day Trouba is going to be forced to play for the Jets for at least another year or two, and maybe the situation changes or a trade opportunity comes up.

Holding out was a serious miscalculation IMO, as there is no pressure on the Jets to make the trades teams are offering.

Agreed

 

[cobra427]

See my post a page or two back.
The starting requirement is that the player need to be able to contribute at the levels below for at least 5 years. IOW they need to be young and have term or control but still be ready to step into the role . In order of preference:
A top pairing LHD who can fit in beside Buff immediately
A top paring RHD with the potential to eventually replace Buff as #1.
Possibly an upgrade over Brian Little (IOW a proven, young #1 C)
Possibly an established elite W

Only the first 2 are actually needs, the second 2 are nice to haves. Anything else we already have in the organization so there isn’t much value from a Jets perspective as it would just get lost on wavers or rot in a depth role even if it were more valuable that than to the team giving it up.

As you can see, because the Jets have such a deep young talent base there just isn’t much teams can offer us that actually make us better. Meanwhile Trouba himself fits our needs almost exactly. It’s going to be very hard to make a trade, which is why I think that at the end of the day Trouba is going to be forced to play for the Jets for at least another year or two, and maybe the situation changes or a trade opportunity comes up.

Holding out was a serious miscalculation IMO, as there is no pressure on the Jets to make the trades teams are offering.

You won't get close to the first 3 for Trouba, maybe the 4th though. I think the Jets are more likely to get quantity for quality: A player that can help now like a journeymen LHD, a high end prospect, and a pick.

 

[lomiller1]

You won't get close to the first 3 for Trouba, maybe the 4th though. I think the Jets are more likely to get quantity for quality: A player that can help now like a journeymen LHD, a high end prospect, and a pick.

Trouba already qualifies for the first 2, so why would the Jets trade him for something that doesn’t fill any need when he’s really got no place else to go?

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Pointing out that they each tow around a boat anchor is not misguided, its an excuse for both players. Stating that Trouba has "regressed" is misguided. To be honest I didn't see enough of Bigras last year to comment one way or another.

It's a little shortsighted to bury your head in the sand and pretend that advanced stats don't mean something although how much faith we put in them is up in the air I suppose. I am far from a stat lover but can certainly recognize that they have merit and can indicate the quality of play in the same way goals and assists can. It's simply data.

Well, that went right over your head. Where did I claim anything was misguided? I just found it funny that when talking about Bigras it was an excuse, but when talking about Trouba you claimed it was misguided comments from others. The term "excuse" is used a lot of times to devalue a reason something happened.

That would be shortsided. It would also be shortsided to assume I'm pretending advanced stats don't matter at all. Just because they are misleading in some cases doesn't mean I'm completely dismissing them.

Because it’s something we can test. In Bigras’s case the numbers go the wrong way, the players Bigras is supposedly “babysitting†get better when they don’t have to play with him. In fact nearly everyone on the team got better when they didn’t have to play with Bigras. I’m not saying he can’t improve, and it’s not the largest of sample sizes, but given what he’s show so far he has to improve a lot to even be a bottom pairing guy.

Conversely the guy Trouba was babysitting has made everyone he’s played with worse for the better part of the last decade. If you exclude the time he spends on the ice with Mark Stuart, Trouba has some of the best possession numbers of any D-man in the NHL. Not only do the numbers go the right way, when he’s not paired with Stuart Trouba doesn’t just perform as a top pairing D he performs as a #1D, right now as a 22 year old is a year where he’s supposedly regressed.





The stats are what they are. If they conflict with what you think you see and there is nothing in the data that can help explain the discrepancy (EG Trouba having #1 D talent but performing worse because he's paired with someone really bad) the reason for the discrepancy is almost certainly that you are not looking at the right things and therefor are not able to identify which player is good and which isn't.

Wow, I think this might be quite literally the most ignorant load of crap I've ever heard. Keep pounding that 'stats are everything' drum. Seriously, Guenin and Redmond better than Bigras last year? So foolish. I mean it wasn't even close.

Oh and btw, these other guys didn't get better without Bigras. When they played with Bigras, they were actually not getting scored on. Without Bigras, they were giving up a goal a game basically. But hey, who cares about the scoreboard when you have Corsi and zone exits and what not. Goals are so precorsi And who cares who is actually responsible for giving up a goal. Advanced stats are not advanced enough to figure that so I guess that's not actually important either.

Can you provide an example of the stats being backward from how a player actually is?

I'm sure any example I give you people wouldn't believe because it conflicts with the stats you guys take as the word of god.

 

[aufheben]

Funny how it's "excuses" for Bigras but "misguided statements" about Trouba.

Certainly they are not a piece of the puzzle. Sometimes these stats are assbackwards from how good a player actually is. You stat lovers really need to realize that.

Go on..

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

As a leaf fan I'd hate to give up Gardiner + but I believe trouba will be excellent so with that in mind would a package of Gardiner and Connor Carrick get the conversation started for trouba ?. Top 4Lhd and a very talented young rhd with a very good chance of being a solid top 4 d man in a year or two.

 

[Ivan13]

Trouba already qualifies for the first 2, so why would the Jets trade him for something that doesn’t fill any need when he’s really got no place else to go?

He sure as hell doesn't.