GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[TheGroceryStick]

Adding Rod and some of his guys.
Would be a great move.

Rod + Skjei/Pesce (or both)

Marner + Liljgren for Kotchetkov + Fast + 1st + (maybe prospect)


2 x 1sts to rebuild through draft or parlay into a bigger piece.


Rielly-Pesce
Skjei-McCabe
Benoit-Timmins/?

 

[DraftSchmaft]

You have better chances of them asking JT to waive his nmc than you do marner leaving. Marner is guarded by JTs cap hit versus age. He's not first to go even if they want him gone.

They would never get rid of a 27 year old Superstar unless the trade is too good to turn down to the point hesitating is foolish. Almost every trade package for Marner doesn't meet this criteria.

If JT isn't asked to waive you can safely assume Marner is being re-signed just by using simple logic (or in a very unlikely event that 1 for 1 change of scenery superstar swap occurs). Logic also shows then that if Marner isn't a Leaf, it's both JT and Marner leaving. If you can't see why you're not qualified to be trading Marner in the first place. All in all, most avenues lead back to Marner retiring a Career Leaf.

 

[supermann_98]

Marner isn’t gonna go anywhere. Not until we just let him walk as a ufa.

I tend to agree. The only way some team gives him what he likely wants, let's say conservatively a modest $1m per season raise for $12m aav, is if he come out of the gates on fire next year like Willy did this year

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

The Leafs will need to decide whether they want to give Mitch Marner one of the richest contracts of all time. Or they can acquire a lesser asset that will improve the team as anything is better than running back personnel that doesn't mesh. The 9th or 10th time will not be any different.

 

[Thornbury]

You have better chances of them asking JT to waive his nmc than you do marner leaving. Marner is guarded by JTs cap hit versus age. He's not first to go even if they want him gone.

They would never get rid of a 27 year old Superstar unless the trade is too good to turn down to the point hesitating is foolish. Almost every trade package for Marner doesn't meet this criteria.

If JT isn't asked to waive you can safely assume Marner is being re-signed just by using simple logic (or in a very unlikely event that 1 for 1 change of scenery superstar swap occurs). Logic also shows then that if Marner isn't a Leaf, it's both JT and Marner leaving. If you can't see why you're not qualified to be trading Marner in the first place. All in all, most avenues lead back to Marner retiring a Career Leaf.

Think this logic is flawed. If the team sees the need to move on from Marner, as most of the fan base does, they don't need an outright win on the trade. Getting out from his $10.9 cap hit is significant value in itself. Add in a couple of solid pieces / picks, and I would hope Treliving would pull the trigger.

 

[TMLAM34]

Wonder if Carolina might do Necas for Marner?

That would be a no brainer for Carolina…

 

[Malachi Crunch]

Wonder if Carolina might do Necas for Marner?

I was thinking of Necas and Kochetkov. I would be all over that. Koch seems like the perfect 1B for Woll.

 

[Legion34]

I cant see Carolina paying Marner what he wants, but maybe that philosophy shifts if they get swept.

I think it'll be Nashville or Seattle. Gut feel.

I think it’s Vegas or NYI.
I want Anaheim or jersey.

But I think Vegas is going patriots on marchy.

Have extra D. Need a rw.

 

[aingefan]

There are some pretty god options for fixing the defence in free agency. More than I thought anyway.

Brandon Montour
Brett Pesce
Matt Roy
Nikita Zadorov
Chris Tanev
Sean Walker

Yeah, for sure. Some good ones on the left side too.
We - not you, but people proposing signing 3-4 of the top 10 - there’s 30 teams on competition for them. It’s a tall order.

 

[aingefan]

I mean, there could be some other bits, but if they get KK going, it would help at C quite a bit.

If they could get a 3rd '25 as well, then great considering they don't have a pick until the 5th round next year.

It’s an interesting idea.
There’s risk in bottling up the cap with too much term too fast. Especially the UFA level where you’re hope is guys stay at their plateau before regressing. You still need guys who haven’t reached it yet.
I’d probably just prefer to give that term to Lili.

 

[Fogelhund]

You have better chances of them asking JT to waive his nmc than you do marner leaving. Marner is guarded by JTs cap hit versus age. He's not first to go even if they want him gone.

They would never get rid of a 27 year old Superstar unless the trade is too good to turn down to the point hesitating is foolish. Almost every trade package for Marner doesn't meet this criteria.

If JT isn't asked to waive you can safely assume Marner is being re-signed just by using simple logic (or in a very unlikely event that 1 for 1 change of scenery superstar swap occurs). Logic also shows then that if Marner isn't a Leaf, it's both JT and Marner leaving. If you can't see why you're not qualified to be trading Marner in the first place. All in all, most avenues lead back to Marner retiring a Career Leaf.

Nah... not even close.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Nah... not even close.

There's absolutely no way MLSE is watching Mitch put up 1 goal in 7 games and is prepared to award 100M. They'll do whatever they can to make him waive. The player could play hardball, and he's better at that than playing on the ice, but they'll do whatever they can

 

[rumman]

Can't help but think about Utah. "New" franchise that could make a big splash at the draft trading for Marner.

One can hope…….

He is finishing every check. He's also a good sniper. Sign me up.

Offensively gifted snd hard as nails, what’s not to like……

 

[rumman]

Who pays Kypreos pay check... the same people paying for Marners.

Kyper got the memo...boost the asset. Like the organization did with Phaneuf.

Perspective……

 

[aingefan]

There's absolutely no way MLSE is watching Mitch put up 1 goal in 7 games and is prepared to award 100M. They'll do whatever they can to make him waive. The player could play hardball, and he's better at that than playing on the ice, but they'll do whatever they can

Mostly because *he’s* not the one doing it.

He’s gotta balance out his perception though. Too much *me first* digging in heels could be off-putting to suitors, I’d think.

 

[Brobust]

Think this logic is flawed. If the team sees the need to move on from Marner, as most of the fan base does, they don't need an outright win on the trade. Getting out from his $10.9 cap hit is significant value in itself. Add in a couple of solid pieces / picks, and I would hope Treliving would pull the trigger.

Getting out of his $10.9 cap hit so we can pay guys like Chandler Stephenson $7M. I'm not sure I like the idea.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Getting out of his $10.9 cap hit so we can pay guys like Chandler Stephenson $7M. I'm not sure I like the idea.

If you make up a bad scenario than yes, the idea isn't good

 

[Go4soda]

He’ll definitely demand one I believe, I’d be interested in a 4 year deal like Matthews so we aren’t attached to him forever. I don’t think he’s earned an 8 year deal.

we know 100% who marner is now as a player/person. there’s no mystery there. there’s been a huge sample size. he’s not going to become something else all of a sudden at this point. id try to move on from him at this point. there are plenty of teams that can use him.

 

[seanlinden]

You have better chances of them asking JT to waive his nmc than you do marner leaving. Marner is guarded by JTs cap hit versus age. He's not first to go even if they want him gone.

They would never get rid of a 27 year old Superstar unless the trade is too good to turn down to the point hesitating is foolish. Almost every trade package for Marner doesn't meet this criteria.

If JT isn't asked to waive you can safely assume Marner is being re-signed just by using simple logic (or in a very unlikely event that 1 for 1 change of scenery superstar swap occurs). Logic also shows then that if Marner isn't a Leaf, it's both JT and Marner leaving. If you can't see why you're not qualified to be trading Marner in the first place. All in all, most avenues lead back to Marner retiring a Career Leaf.

It is far from as simple as saying "Marner is better & younger, with the same cap hit as JT, so they'll trade JT first".

The reality with Marner, is that they likely do not see a path forward in signing him. His negotiating range (barring him wanting to take a massive discount) likely starts at $100m, and stops at William Nylander's $92m.

Tavares on the other hand, there seems to be a belief that he's not as concerned about the moeny at this point, given his $77m contract which is coming to a conclusion, the $33m contract before that, his 33 year old age and 1100 games in this league over 15 years.

The Leafs have spent the last 6 years trying an approach with these 4 as the core and it hasn't worked. There seems to be a path forward where Tavares remains on this team in a reduced role and substantially reduced pay.

While I would argue that if Tavares goes down to $3m, and even if they give Marner a raise to $12m, this team COULD be successful with 3 high priced forwards and a continiously rising cap; I think that's probably 2-3 years away, and I don't think those 3 guys sanity will last that long.

There's also the consideration that Marner will probably fetch a pretty solid haul of a return, especially given his ability to be retained at 50%... whereas Tavares, not much of one.

 

[ToneDog]

Not true.

LOL. We'll see which team steps up. I pity them.

 

[ToneDog]

Leafs extended Keefe 2 years so he would not be a lame duck coach. I find it interesting that Rod da Bod is a lame duck coach. Some organizations seem to manage their shit while the Leafs are the biggest pushovers on and off the ice. #Embarassing for this team.

Who pays Kypreos pay check... the same people paying for Marners.

Kyper got the memo...boost the asset. Like the organization did with Phaneuf.

I like listening to Kyper but he's gotta stop pumping Mitch's tire. It is starting to become embarrassing.

 

[TMLAM34]

Kyper is trying to help push Marner outta town, generate a bidding war. I respect that lol.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Was the summer of Brad 3 years ago now?

Tkachuk for Weager, Huberdeau, 1st
Signed Kadri
Lost Gaudreau

For a star who wanted out, Brad did get a haul. The contract for Huberdeau is another thing, but can't deny the returning value is there as best he could. Obviously would prefer Tkachuk

 

[Brobust]

If you make up a bad scenario than yes, the idea isn't good

I don't know how you expect UFA signings to go. There are maybe 2 or 3 guys I'd be comfortable paying and even they come with question marks.

Kyper is trying to help push Marner outta town, generate a bidding war. I respect that lol.

Kyper is a mouthpiece for the Marner camp. I wonder if there's a divide in the Marner camp. Maybe Paulie wants to go south, but Mitch is more ok with sticking around.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I don't know how you expect UFA signings to go. There are maybe 2 or 3 guys I'd be comfortable paying and even they come with question marks.



Kyper is a mouthpiece for the Marner camp. I wonder if there's a divide in the Marner camp. Maybe Paulie wants to go south, but Mitch is more ok with sticking around.

We can spend cap on a combination of our own players (Knies would be great), trade acquisitions, RFAs, and UFAs.

10.9M is a ton of cap that doesn't need to be entirely spent in UFA. But speaking of UFA, there are promising defensemen. The Leafs also seem to wish to extend McCabe.