GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

Rielly4

Registered User
Dec 12, 2012
3,647
631
Would it be prudent to sign Knies to an early extension this offseason to lock him up before a potential breakout or just ride it out and bridge him for the lowest aav until UFA?
Id definitely do that but he has no reason to sign an early extension. I'd love to play him net front of the top powerplay to be honest.
 

Phion Keneuf

Bang Bang
Jul 4, 2010
35,290
6,364
Timothy Liljegren + Nick Robertson for Nick Jensen as a base. I’d add more since I think Jensen is a perfect fit and cost controlled.

Figured the Caps might want to unite Sandin & Lilly again after committing to Sandin long term.
 
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TheMadHatTrick

Registered User
Nov 2, 2008
6,761
2,836
Treliving tends to get infront of those pretty good. I would say it's very possible the Leafs try to do it as early as possible.
Alex Tuch's 7 year 33.25 million deal with Vegas at age 22 is the closest comparable I can think of. Tuch was just coming off a second season of 15 goals and 22 assists over 78 games (Knies finished his second season with 15 goals and 20 assists over 80 games).

The deal bought out 2-3 UFA years and came with a cap hit of 4.75M (5.97% of the cap). I'd love that cap hit, but if he's going for cap% then given the rising cap it might be closer to 5.24 over 7 years.
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
52,764
34,823
Timothy Liljegren + Nick Robertson for Nick Jensen as a base. I’d add more since I think Jensen is a perfect fit and cost controlled.

Figured the Caps might want to unite Sandin & Lilly again after committing to Sandin long term.

34 year old Nick Jensen? 1 goal and 14 points Nick Jensen? 0 points in 27 playoff games. Signed for 2 more seasons at which point he'll be 36? He's already declining quite a bit. And you want to add more to get him?

I wouldn't give up either Liljegren or Robertson for him. I don't say this very often, but that is one of the worst suggestions I've seen in a very long time. If they retain 50% on his deal, I'd consider it a lot more and I still wouldn't give up much more than a prospect like Kokkonen or something.
 
Last edited:

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
21,438
24,017
I've kind of been playing with things, and come up with this...

ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES
Tooltip
BONUSESCAP SPACE
24$87,500,000$84,138,332$0$3,062,500$3,361,668
Delete PlayerBuyoutAdd to Trade


Prorated Cap Hit

Roster​

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Domi, Max
$3,000,000
C, RW
UFA
Matthews, Auston
$13,250,000
C
NMC
UFA - 4
Kane, Patrick
$4,000,000
RW
UFA
Waivers Exempt
Knies, Matthew
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
Nylander, William
$11,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 8
Waivers Exempt
Robertson, Nicholas
$1,200,000
LW, RW
RFA
Waivers Exempt
Wright, Shane
$918,333 (
Performance Bonus
$3,062,500)
C
RFA - 2
McMann, Bobby
$1,350,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Waivers Exempt
Cowan, Easton
$935,833
LW, C
RFA - 2
McBain, Jack
$1,599,999
C, LW
RFA - 1
Dewar, Connor
$892,500
LW, C
RFA
Reaves, Ryan
$1,350,000
RW
UFA - 2
Gregor, Noah
$800,000
LW, RW
RFA
RW5
LW6
Roster created at CapFriendly.com | Follow on Twitter @CapFriendly
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Rielly, Morgan
$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Lyubushkin, Ilya
$3,000,000
RD
UFA
Woll, Joseph
$766,667
G
RFA - 1
McCabe, Jake
$2,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Pesce, Brett
$5,500,000
RD
UFA
Vanecek, Vitek
$3,400,000
G
UFA - 1
Benoit, Simon
$1,350,000
LD
UFA - 3
Roy, Matt
$4,800,000
RD
UFA
Driedger, Chris
$2,000,000
G
UFA
Timmins, Conor
$1,100,000
RD
RFA - 1
 
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SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
52,764
34,823
Alex Tuch's 7 year 33.25 million deal with Vegas at age 22 is the closest comparable I can think of. Tuch was just coming off a second season of 15 goals and 22 assists over 78 games (Knies finished his second season with 15 goals and 20 assists over 80 games).

The deal bought out 2-3 UFA years and came with a cap hit of 4.75M (5.97% of the cap). I'd love that cap hit, but if he's going for cap% then given the rising cap it might be closer to 5.24 over 7 years.

I'd do anything between 4 and 5M for 6-8 years. Whatever term works. I'd go to 5.25M if the term is 8 years.
 

1specter

Registered User
Sep 27, 2016
11,067
16,139
Rielly's skating has declined quite a bit over the years. For a guy whose strength is skating he's caught flat footed an awful lot out there and he's not great when he gets cycled into the ground. Jones has the easy mobility of a big wingspan defenseman.
Rielly looked pretty clearly injured to me these playoffs. I don't see why he would lose so much mobility in one year when he was a huge threat in last year's playoffs against both Tampa and Florida. He's 30 not 35-36.
 

meefer

Registered User
Jun 9, 2015
4,738
4,696
Bangkok
To win the Stanley Cup, I'm of the opinion that your best players have to be the best players on the ice. At no time in this era of Leaf hockey have our best players been the best players on the ice. None of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares or Rielly can make that claim. IMO, each of them is a potential trade waiting to happen, and this includes Matthews. There is a case to be made that over the course of a game or two, one or two of them may have been the best player on the ice, but over the course of a series...I haven't seen it.

Whoever has the reins as GM when the dust settles has a difficult job not because the talent to be the best player on ice isn't here, it is, these guys are that talented - it's because those talented players have not been the best. Why?

One can argue that it has been the coaching that has held them back. Another common criticism being our cap structure (otherwise known as the Dubas critique), a third being the lack of draft selections not bringing cheap value to the table and helping the team. I will grant truth to all of these answers to the question, 'why?'.

What I don't see, again in my opinion, is that with these supposedly great players, none have thrust their skills into the course of a series and dominated that series. The greats impose their will in a way that alters the course of a series. Their play determines victory.

Over the course of 8 seasons I have yet to see a Leaf star player take over a series.

So, when it comes to trades this off season, I'm of the opinion that none of them should be considered 'safe'.
 

Mitch nylander

One of the biggest fans from a bipolar fanbase
Jun 2, 2016
4,563
5,999
Rielly should be moved.

Not sure if trading our best defender fixes anything, especially when he's the only defence we currently have outside of maybe Timmins and Liljegren, that offer any time of puck moving ability.

We need more puck movers on d not less...

For every McCabe and Benoit there should be a puck mover. Colorado's defence has so many strong puck movers outside of Manson. It's about balance.
 

Mitch nylander

One of the biggest fans from a bipolar fanbase
Jun 2, 2016
4,563
5,999
Timothy Liljegren + Nick Robertson for Nick Jensen as a base. I’d add more since I think Jensen is a perfect fit and cost controlled.

Figured the Caps might want to unite Sandin & Lilly again after committing to Sandin long term.

That is atrocious.

Jensen is gonna be a 34 regressing defender starting next year coming off of a major injury. He can skate well, and yes adds a bit of puck movement. But he's far from the defender we need.

Especially when you're trading a 22 year old forward who was pacing for 21 goals and 40 points in 3rd line minutes as well as a youngish 5D.

Jensen at this point is worth about a 2nd. So stick with that.
 

Superstar

"Be water, my friend."
Jun 25, 2008
12,650
8,821
To win the Stanley Cup, I'm of the opinion that your best players have to be the best players on the ice. At no time in this era of Leaf hockey have our best players been the best players on the ice. None of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares or Rielly can make that claim. IMO, each of them is a potential trade waiting to happen, and this includes Matthews. There is a case to be made that over the course of a game or two, one or two of them may have been the best player on the ice, but over the course of a series...I haven't seen it.

Whoever has the reins as GM when the dust settles has a difficult job not because the talent to be the best player on ice isn't here, it is, these guys are that talented - it's because those talented players have not been the best. Why?

One can argue that it has been the coaching that has held them back. Another common criticism being our cap structure (otherwise known as the Dubas critique), a third being the lack of draft selections not bringing cheap value to the table and helping the team. I will grant truth to all of these answers to the question, 'why?'.

What I don't see, again in my opinion, is that with these supposedly great players, none have thrust their skills into the course of a series and dominated that series. The greats impose their will in a way that alters the course of a series. Their play determines victory.

Over the course of 8 seasons I have yet to see a Leaf star player take over a series.

So, when it comes to trades this off season, I'm of the opinion that none of them should be considered 'safe'.

They were at their best for one round last season, but fizzled out in round two.
 

Mitch nylander

One of the biggest fans from a bipolar fanbase
Jun 2, 2016
4,563
5,999
If it's Jones for Marner I want Colton Dach or Rinzel attached to Jones as the package

At least that, it would have to be a decent package. Jones is at this point an overpaid defender. He's shown he's nowhere near what he's making.

Erik Karlsson who came off a Norris nominated season with 100 points, who is frankly a much better talent than Seth Jones is at this point, only went for 3 cap dumps and a 1st. I think we need to think about that, when looking at defenders with sizeable deals.
 

Americanadian

Registered User
Sep 11, 2016
3,234
1,846
Michigan
Mock off-season v2:

Keeping 2025-26 in mind.

To VGK: Marner (50% retained)
To CGY: Marner (50% salary), TOR 24 1st, Liljegren
To TOR: Markstrom, Roy, Theodore

To UTA: Jarnkrok
To TOR: TOR 25 2nd

To NSH: Kampf, Robertson
To TOR: McCarron

To VAN: Rielly
To TOR: Garland

UFA:
Montour 7.5Mx7
Tanev 5Mx2

Re-sign:
Knies 4.5Mx8
McCabe 5Mx2
Woll 2.5Mx3
Theodore 8.5Mx8
Dewar 1Mx2

Domi-Matthews-Bertuzzi
Knies-Roy-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Garland
Holmberg-Dewar-McCarron

Theodore-Tanev
McCabe-Montour
Benoit-Timmins

Markstrom
Woll

In 2025 you either re-sign Tavares to league minimum (easy negotiation if he doesn’t want to leave Toronto) or you play Minten or Holmberg 3C.
 
Last edited:

JKG33

Leafs & Kings
Oct 31, 2009
6,471
9,701
Winnipeg
Marner for Jones isn’t a great, great match, since I’m sure people are worried about the optics of a Marner-Bedard looking terrible for the Leafs but Rielly for Jones might be doable from a money POV. Contracts end around the same time and you get a bigger defenseman who can play the workhorse role, is a way better skater.
Marner-Bedard would be a great line in the regular season, until Mitch the Bitch returns to postseason form.

I don't get wanting to trade Rielly. The entire problem with him is save for a year of Jake Muzzin, the Leafs haven't had another top pairing D man. They currently only have 2 top 4 D as it is.

McCabe-Jones
Rielly-X
Benoit-Liljgren

That's a group where if you can get a Luke Schenn type has everyone in a proper place. Two top pairing guys you can put together when the going gets tough, two top 4 guys as their regular partner, and 2 bottom pair guys thatre no longer playing above where they should be
 

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