Proposal: Trade Rumors and Proposals Thread: Chris Kelly Attending Camp on PTO

[Aerchon]

Unfortunately for Chiarelli he had the McDavid deal hanging over him when dealing with Draisaitl. The Bruins had the Marchand and Bergeron deals (their underpaid and best players) working in their favor when negotiating with Pastrnak.

This.

Both McDavid and Leon got far more money than the market, in terms of cap management and team building, demanded.

If not for McDavid, Leon does not get his deal.

I'm actually glad the market is correcting itself despite these outliers. Chiarelli will have trouble signing our other players cause they/their agents will all see him as soft, but if he can manage a backbone moving forward maybe we can sign a guy like Jessie for a respectable amount.


EDIT: Sackic looks terrible but I am not sure Mac T level of bad. Mac T took an incredibly bad team and made them significantly worse. A feat I honestly didn't think was possible. Eakins, Norris Schultz, Dubnyk handling, Gagner contract, Petry contract, Handling of Marincin, Nikita, Brad Hunt... I'm struggling to think of anything he did right.

 

[Weitz]

This.

Both McDavid and Leon got far more money than the market, in terms of cap management and team building, demanded.

If not for McDavid, Leon does not get his deal.

I'm actually glad the market is correcting itself despite these outliers. Chiarelli will have trouble signing our other players cause they/their agents will all see him as soft, but if he can manage a backbone moving forward maybe we can sign a guy like Jessie for a respectable amount.

It's not just those deal, the Lucic and Russell deals also contribute to that.

Which will make it a lot harder to sign value deals.

 

[CupofOil]

There is no starting point for an rfa with no leverage other than some phantom offer sheet which never occurs. Draisaitl had nothing to stand on. Bruins management just showed chia up big time with this deal.

Chia got bent over this summer in contract negotiations. It will cost us important players starting next summer.

I don't buy this.

First of all, not sure why people are looking at Pastrnak and Draisaitl as direct comparables. Even if you look at their fairly even production last year, Draisaitl has the advantage of center versatility, doubling Pastrnak's production the prior season, a big playoff run and buying 2 extra UFA years so no kidding that the Bruins got Pastrnak at a lower number. At worst, Drai is currently slightly overpaid when looking at the market and comparables.

I do think that a 6 year deal might have been the smarter play but ultimately, it's a quibble over approximately 1M more for 2 extra years. I doubt you get Drai for much less than 7.5M even on a shorter term 6 year deal.
I don't know what you guys expected. It was inevitable that McDavid and Drai were going to get huge deals.

My biggest worry is Chia handing out NMC's like candy and long term to role players. Lucic and Russell are key players now but those are the contracts that could very well bite the team in the rear in a couple of years, not the McDavid and Draisaitl deals.
I hope he doesn't fall into this trap with Maroon as well as much as I like the guy.

 

[belair]

He's also the kind of guy you need to replace once you lose him. An extra 1.5m-2m is easily the difference between being able to add a suitable replacement or needing to go full bargain bin.

Maroon is a complimentary winger. He's McDavid's tap-in guy who also plays with some jam. I hope he doesn't see dollar signs and signs a Kassian-type deal because he's an excellent team guy, but specifically as a player--Patrick Maroon's job is VERY replaceable.

 

[Weitz]

I don't buy this.

First of all, not sure why people are looking at Pastrnak and Draisaitl as direct comparables. Even if you look at their fairly even production last year, Draisaitl has the advantage of center versatility, doubling Pastrnak's production the prior season, a big playoff run and buying 2 extra UFA years so no kidding that the Bruins got Pastrnak at a lower number. At worst, Drai is currently slightly overpaid when looking at the market and comparables.

I do think that a 6 year deal might have been the smarter play but ultimately, it's a quibble over approximately 1M more for 2 extra years. I doubt you get Drai for much less than 7.5M even on a shorter term 6 year deal.
I don't know what you guys expected. It was inevitable that McDavid and Drai were going to get huge deals.

My biggest worry is Chia handing out NMC's like candy and long term to role players. Lucic and Russell are key players now but those are the contracts that could very well bite the team in the rear in a couple of years, not the McDavid and Draisaitl deals.
I hope he doesn't fall into this trap with Maroon as well as much as I like the guy.

And if Draisaitl shows he can't carry his own line?

You don't need a guy making 8.5 million riding shot gun with the best player in the league. You need that money spent on a guy running his own line.

 

[bone]

This.

Both McDavid and Leon got far more money than the market, in terms of cap management and team building, demanded.

If not for McDavid, Leon does not get his deal.

I'm actually glad the market is correcting itself despite these outliers. Chiarelli will have trouble signing our other players cause they/their agents will all see him as soft, but if he can manage a backbone moving forward maybe we can sign a guy like Jessie for a respectable amount.


EDIT: Sackic looks terrible but I am not sure Mac T level of bad. Mac T took an incredibly bad team and made them significantly worse. A feat I honestly didn't think was possible. Eakins, Norris Schultz, Dubnyk handling, Gagner contract, Petry contract, Handling of Marincin, Nikita, Brad Hunt... I'm struggling to think of anything he did right.

Paajarvi trade, and subsequent Perron trade. Drafting Leon over Bennett. To a much lesser extent drafting Nurse over Nichkushin, but hindsight suggests Ristolainen would have been the better bet and the weird multi-trade draft may have got the best player out of the sequence. But yeah, he didn't get many right.

Maybe dumping Smid when he did could viewed as a positive, too.

 

[CupofOil]

And if Draisaitl shows he can't carry his own line?

You don't need a guy making 8.5 million riding shot gun with the best player in the league. You need that money spent on a guy running his own line.

Why would you think that he can't carry his own line? He's really good no matter what line he plays on and he passes the eye test too.
Sure he has some proving to do but all you have to do is watch him play to be confident that he can anchor his own line. It's not like he leeched off of McDavid, they benefited each other.

The 8.5 number is a little high for sure and took me by surprise but I don't think it's absurdly high by any means when you look at the Tarasenko and Kuznetsov deals. You have to pay for top talent and Drai is top level talent.

 

[Spawn]

Maroon is a complimentary winger. He's McDavid's tap-in guy who also plays with some jam. I hope he doesn't see dollar signs and signs a Kassian-type deal because he's an excellent team guy, but specifically as a player--Patrick Maroon's job is VERY replaceable.

He's a complimentary player for sure. But 27 goals is 27 goals, and having a player who seemlessly fits with McDavid isn't as easy as just finding any player and putting him there. Just ask lucic and hall.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

He's also the kind of guy you need to replace once you lose him. An extra 1.5m-2m is easily the difference between being able to add a suitable replacement or needing to go full bargain bin.

You do need to replace him, but teams will usually replace those guys internally (or via UFA College, Euro, etc).

Failing that, then you add a possibly lesser, but cheaper UFA option.

As long as the stars are in place, they will still drive things.

 

[Aerchon]

It's not just those deal, the Lucic and Russell deals also contribute to that.

Which will make it a lot harder to sign value deals.

Strongly disagree.

Lucic had a good year for LA and was easily going to get 6mill on the market. A 7 year term only takes him to 35. It was rumored he was offered more money for less term but others. Lucic was a UFA as opposed to Conner and Leons RFA status.

Russell easily would have gotten 4 mill 4 years anywhere else. Probably more. Also only takes him 34 or 35.

 

[Spawn]

I don't buy this.

First of all, not sure why people are looking at Pastrnak and Draisaitl as direct comparables. Even if you look at their fairly even production last year, Draisaitl has the advantage of center versatility, doubling Pastrnak's production the prior season, a big playoff run and buying 2 extra UFA years so no kidding that the Bruins got Pastrnak at a lower number. At worst, Drai is currently slightly overpaid when looking at the market and comparables.

I do think that a 6 year deal might have been the smarter play but ultimately, it's a quibble over approximately 1M more for 2 extra years. I doubt you get Drai for much less than 7.5M even on a shorter term 6 year deal.
I don't know what you guys expected. It was inevitable that McDavid and Drai were going to get huge deals.

My biggest worry is Chia handing out NMC's like candy and long term to role players. Lucic and Russell are key players now but those are the contracts that could very well bite the team in the rear in a couple of years, not the McDavid and Draisaitl deals.
I hope he doesn't fall into this trap with Maroon as well as much as I like the guy.

You can say you don't buy it all you want. There were no comparables for draisaitl to get the contract he did. It's a bad deal signed by a bad negotiator. The Bruins played the tiniest bit of hardball with their guy and got him on a great deal. Time and time again it has been shown that these rfa players eventually cave as we get into training camp time. For some reason chia just didn't bother.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

He's a complimentary player for sure. But 27 goals is 27 goals, and having a player who seemlessly fits with McDavid isn't as easy as just finding any player and putting him there. Just ask lucic and hall.

Agreed on 27 goals, but I would back off on that "finding a fit isn't easy" thing as McDavid is only 2 years into his NHL career, and spend part of the first year both injured and adjusting to the NHL game.

Yes Lucic wasn't a fit (though it works on the PP), but it's hardly a "he needs to play with Chris Kunitz" scenario yet.

 

[molsonmuscle360]

Maroon or RNH if not both.

Maroon is an idiot if he doesn't go elsewhere to get paid next season, simple as that. He knows he won't get the 3.5 or 4 million/year that he's going to get as a UFA here. If he thinks he can get a two year contract worth 4 per then he's going. Chia is not going to offer him anything crazy because he has seen he doesn't produce off McDavids line. And if RNH doesn't have a good year, who actually cares if he leaves?

McDavid and Draisaitls cap percentage isn't that bad, it's not going to cost us in the future IMO. And anyone complaining about the McDavid contract is probably one of those ones that has to have something to whine and complain about anyway.

 

[Spawn]

Agreed on 27 goals, but I would back off on that "finding a fit isn't easy" thing as McDavid is only 2 years into his NHL career, and spend part of the first year both injured and adjusting to the NHL game.

Yes Lucic wasn't a fit (though it works on the PP), but it's hardly a "he needs to play with Chris Kunitz" scenario yet.

Maybe finding a fit isn't easy is the wrong way to put it. Finding a fit isn't a guarantee might be better. We have a player that fits and we now are going to be in a spot where we probably won't be able to keep him. So we will need to find a player who makes less and who is a fit. That's not going to be an easy thing to do and caries some risk imo.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Maroon is an idiot if he doesn't go elsewhere to get paid next season, simple as that. He knows he won't get the 3.5 or 4 million/year that he's going to get as a UFA here. If he thinks he can get a two year contract worth 4 per then he's going. Chia is not going to offer him anything crazy because he has seen he doesn't produce off McDavids line. And if RNH doesn't have a good year, who actually cares if he leaves?

McDavid and Draisaitls cap percentage isn't that bad, it's not going to cost us in the future IMO. And anyone complaining about the McDavid contract is probably one of those ones that has to have something to whine and complain about anyway.

Also this is true as well. If Maroon walks away from turning 2(probably) very good seasons into a good long term pay day, he's not looking after himself at all.

 

[bone]

Maroon is an idiot if he doesn't go elsewhere to get paid next season, simple as that. He knows he won't get the 3.5 or 4 million/year that he's going to get as a UFA here. If he thinks he can get a two year contract worth 4 per then he's going. Chia is not going to offer him anything crazy because he has seen he doesn't produce off McDavids line. And if RNH doesn't have a good year, who actually cares if he leaves?

McDavid and Draisaitls cap percentage isn't that bad, it's not going to cost us in the future IMO. And anyone complaining about the McDavid contract is probably one of those ones that has to have something to whine and complain about anyway.

It's a little high today, so it will cost us a bit over the next two-three years, but years 4-8 the percentage should palatable while they should be in their prime.

 

[CupofOil]

You can say you don't buy it all you want. There were no comparables for draisaitl to get the contract he did. It's a bad deal signed by a bad negotiator. The Bruins played the tiniest bit of hardball with their guy and got him on a great deal. Time and time again it has been shown that these rfa players eventually cave as we get into training camp time. For some reason chia just didn't bother.

OF course there were comparables, Tarasenko and Kuznetsov. Kuznetsov is a little older and bought a few more UFA years so that cancels out and Tarasenko signed his deal over a year ago under a lower cap. 8x8 would have been fair based on that so slightly overpaid is how I see it, not Chia getting "bent over".

Again, Pastrnak got a lower number because he's not as good a player, plays wing not center and bought less UFA years so not sure why it's considered great in comparison. If it's an 8 year deal, he gets $7.5M minimum in all likelihood.

Again, the Lucic, Russell and perhaps Sekera contracts will hurt more than the Drai contract unless you believe that Drai has peaked as a player.
Chia isn't the best negotiator so I agree on that. I just don't agree that the McDavid and Drai contracts are going to cripple the team.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Maybe finding a fit isn't easy is the wrong way to put it. Finding a fit isn't a guarantee might be better. We have a player that fits and we now are going to be in a spot where we probably won't be able to keep him. So we will need to find a player who makes less and who is a fit. That's not going to be easy.

Yeah, I think it will honestly. I mean it's probably not going to be as simple and plug and play, but it's not nearly as fatalistic as you're suggesting.

 

[belair]

He's a complimentary player for sure. But 27 goals is 27 goals, and having a player who seemlessly fits with McDavid isn't as easy as just finding any player and putting him there. Just ask lucic and hall.

$4m is also $4m though. If he's relying on one player for the production you're paying for, that's a bad investment. And the Oilers don't have the available cap space to tuck away their very own Matt Beleskey. McDavid is going to play with a lot of different linemates in his time in Edmonton and I honestly don't see the Lucic-McDavid connection being tossed aside for good.

 

[Aerchon]

Maroon is an idiot if he doesn't go elsewhere to get paid next season, simple as that. He knows he won't get the 3.5 or 4 million/year that he's going to get as a UFA here. If he thinks he can get a two year contract worth 4 per then he's going. Chia is not going to offer him anything crazy because he has seen he doesn't produce off McDavids line. And if RNH doesn't have a good year, who actually cares if he leaves?

McDavid and Draisaitls cap percentage isn't that bad, it's not going to cost us in the future IMO. And anyone complaining about the McDavid contract is probably one of those ones that has to have something to whine and complain about anyway.

Agree Maroon.

Disagree Nuge. Center depth breeds championships. There is a reason every single teams fan base in the NHL is currently looking to buy low on Nuge. "Nuge isn't good, but we will take on our team in a heartbeat", seems to be the constant theme on the main trade board.

McDavids and Leons cap % is proven extremely difficult to manage. Just look at Chicago. It will certainly costs us players moving forward, more/better players the better the team plays.

It might not end up being a big deal at all but right now I think the smart money is that it will. No way to know until the beginning of next season and moving forward tho.

 

[belair]

Maybe finding a fit isn't easy is the wrong way to put it. Finding a fit isn't a guarantee might be better. We have a player that fits and we now are going to be in a spot where we probably won't be able to keep him. So we will need to find a player who makes less and who is a fit. That's not going to be an easy thing to do and caries some risk imo.

Honestly, I think Peter Chiarelli is likely more worried about filling out the rest of the roster than which pet project he has playing with McDavid. McDavid is one of the few players in the NHL who will make nearly anyone in this league a dangerous player.

Guys like Eberle and Lucic didn't work when they were given their chance, but they were still a significant threat--the only problem is that they are players who could produce similarly on their own. It was unnecessary to play them together because neither significantly improved in that time.

 

[bone]

OF course there were comparables, Tarasenko and Kuznetsov. Kuznetsov is a little older and bought a few more UFA years so that cancels out and Tarasenko signed his deal over a year ago under a lower cap. 8x8 would have been fair based on that so slightly overpaid is how I see it, not Chia getting "bent over".

Again, Pastrnak got a lower number because he's not as good a player, plays wing not center and bought less UFA years so not sure why it's considered great in comparison. If it's an 8 year deal, he gets $7.5M minimum in all likelihood.

Again, the Lucic, Russell and perhaps Sekera contracts will hurt more than the Drai contract unless you believe that Drai has peaked as a player.
Chia isn't the best negotiator so I agree on that. I just don't agree that the McDavid and Drai contracts are going to cripple the team.

One extra UFA season, being a centre, and 14 more career points in 19 more career games, make up a nearly $2 million dollar difference or 27% more.

At the end of Pasternak's deal, they could sign him him for $14M per for 2 years and then the aggregate contract values would be the same. Do you really think Pasternak would get $14M per for years 7 and 8?

That's the gamble Chiarelli made. He's sacrificing close to $2M cap space the next few years thinking Draisaitl is a $12-14M player at the end of it. He may be right, but it's certainly a gamble.

 

[Asiaoil]

You can say you don't buy it all you want. There were no comparables for draisaitl to get the contract he did. It's a bad deal signed by a bad negotiator. The Bruins played the tiniest bit of hardball with their guy and got him on a great deal. Time and time again it has been shown that these rfa players eventually cave as we get into training camp time. For some reason chia just didn't bother.

You are ignoring the offer sheet threat that was obvious out there which is what drove Drai's negotiation. Chia didn't buy out Pouliot for shytes and giggles when keeping him as a 4th line winger is easily accomplished. He needed obvious cap space to ward off the threat. So talk about comparables all you want, but if you ignore the offer sheet threat, you are only discussing the part of the issue that suits your narrative.

 

[Spawn]

OF course there were comparables, Tarasenko and Kuznetsov. Kuznetsov is a little older and bought a few more UFA years so that cancels out and Tarasenko signed his deal over a year ago under a lower cap. 8x8 would have been fair based on that so slightly overpaid is how I see it, not Chia getting "bent over".

Again, Pastrnak got a lower number because he's not as good a player, plays wing not center and bought less UFA years so not sure why it's considered great in comparison. If it's an 8 year deal, he gets $7.5M minimum in all likelihood.

Again, the Lucic, Russell and perhaps Sekera contracts will hurt more than the Drai contract unless you believe that Drai has peaked as a player.
Chia isn't the best negotiator so I agree on that. I just don't agree that the McDavid and Drai contracts are going to cripple the team.

Pastrnak and Draisaitl are good comparables because they were drafted in the same draft year, scored at identical rates this season and have identical career numbers as well.

You can say Drai is better all you want, but based on what? The "center" argument falls apart somewhat considering he spent the bulk of this season on the wing. Or is it that Drai had a better playoffs inflated by a 5 point game in a blowout.

As for your comparables:

Kuznetsov is 4 years older, wasn't coming out of his ELC and was going to be a UFA in 2 seasons. Drai was coming off his ELC, and was an RFA for 5 more seasons.

Tarasenko is a good comparable as the absolute upper limit. At 7.5 million. Even if you account for cap inflation, the deal still should have at the very most come in at ~7.75M.

I'm not saying anything about the McDavid contract. That is clearly a unique situation. But there was no reason for Chia to give Draisaitl the contract he did. There's no reason he shouldn't have been able to get him for under 7, even if it meant only 6 years (as if that is somehow a short period of time).

 

[molsonmuscle360]

One extra UFA season, being a centre, and 14 more career points in 19 more career games, make up a nearly $2 million dollar difference or 27% more.

At the end of Pasternak's deal, they could sign him him for $14M per for 2 years and then the aggregate contract values would be the same. Do you really think Pasternak would get $14M per for years 7 and 8?

That's the gamble Chiarelli made. He's sacrificing close to $2M cap space the next few years thinking Draisaitl is a $12-14M player at the end of it. He may be right, but it's certainly a gamble.

I don't think it is a gamble. Chia knows the cap goes up next year. You don't add in a 31st team, that has already sold out it's season seats and from all accounts single seats are becoming tough to get, and not have a decent cap move next year. Everything is looking good for an increased cap over the next few years barring something weird in the new CBA. Seattle looking like they are getting ready and maybe taking Arizona out of there or getting a new team. The cap will keep rising and McDavid and Draisaitl will not be taking the same kind of percentage of the cap that Toews and Kane did.