HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #87: 2024 Season Finale

[Leon Lucius Black]

Why is every obsessed with targeting these middling players?
Newhook, Kaliyev, Turcotte, Holtz? None of these players will meaningfully move the needle for the Habs.
I'd rather keep my laste 1st and take swings. You can't land a Wyatt Johnston if you don't have the picks!

(Or a Pastarnak for that matter)

The Habs' tank years are likely over and we've failed to land an elite talent. We have no choice but to take big swings now or this rebuild is DOA.

Including Newhook with some of those guys is selling Newhook very short. As a 22/23 year old, Newhook finished the season with 27 points in his last 39 games which is a 57 point pace over a full year. If not for injuries and being stuck with Anderson to start the year, he likely hits over 50 points.

Finding late first rounders like Pastrnak and Johnston is very rare and takes a lot of luck. Even in Johnston's case if not for COVID happening in his draft and him hardly playing, he likely would've been gone way higher.

I do agree it doesn't make a lot of sense on targeting some lower value guys like Turcotte at this point. If we are using picks/prospects to target someone, it should be for proven guys or guys with higher potential.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Panarin seems to be doing just fine at 175. As far as small wigner, see Kaprizov.

Apply Weight to it please. Kaprizov is 5'-10" and 203 lbs. Not sure if you paid attention or noticed but many of us have said over and over again.. size is about height and WEIGHT!

Do this for me and maybe you come to the same conclusion as me. It's about quantifying and yeah, listing exceptions is not the general rule. If you want to put all your faith into thinking you are a genius and you found the exception, go ahead. You might hit.

Russian all time points leaders (Min 185 lbs):
* List them

Russian all time points leaders (Less than 185 lbs):
* List them

Demidov has to put on 30-40 lbs on to reach Kaprizov's weight. Doubt that ever happens. Your best hope is he turns into a Kucherov, Datsyuk, or Panarin like you said. Just because you can find some, it doesn't mean they are a plenty. That's a long span of years between these 3.

 

[Kosseca]

I don't see the point in trying to trade up from the 5 hole unless we're talking about Celebrini. But since he's not going to be an option I'm fine with staying at 5. I don't see any player that we absolutely must have before 5th. I would be open to packaging the Winnipeg pick in an effort to move into somewhere between 6th and 15th.

odds are that neither Demidov (CHI) or Lindstrom (CLB) are available at 5. So the Q is would it be worth to do this:

Demidov vs Catton/Iginla + 1st WIN + Harris?

 

[GrandmaCookie]

Apply Weight to it please. Kaprizov is 5'-10" and 203 lbs. Not sure if you paid attention or noticed but many of us have said over and over again.. size is about height and WEIGHT!

Do this for me and maybe you come to the same conclusion as me. It's about quantifying and yeah, listing exceptions is not the general rule. If you want to put all your faith into thinking you are a genius and you found the exception, go ahead.

Russian all time points leaders (Min 185 lbs):
* List them

Russian all time points leaders (Less than 185 lbs):
* List them

Hockey db list Demidov at 181 currently: Ivan Demidov Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com, Craig Button list too: Craig’s List: Russian winger Ivan Demidov soars to No. 2 behind Macklin Celebrini | TSN

As far as your challenge, quite the task but

Sources: Russian NHL Players ‑ All-Time Stats

Vyacheslav Kozlov was 5'10 190lbs (853 career points).

You had the Bure brother who we're small and light (Pavel was 180 in his draft year).

Igor Larionov (5'9 170) 644 points in 921 games. ranks #17

Sergei Samsonov is another high point guy.

Mogilny was only 5'11. 200 pounds yes but Demidov will probably end up around 190, is 10 pound really the difference maker in the current league with no hooking?

You exclude Kucherov and Datsyuk but I won't. Panarin like I said is light.

Kaprizov was 185 in his draft year if we trust this link: Kirill Kaprizov | Kirill Kaprizov Profile | Kirill Kaprizov Scouting Report 2015

Kuzmenko has a good start at 5'11 192 (which includes a 39 goal season).

Afinogenov had some success and was 5'11 194.

Don't see why Demidov couldn't get high 180 to 190. 6-10 pounds is nothing for a 18 year old.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Hockey db list Demidov at 181 currently: Ivan Demidov Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com, Craig Button list too: Craig’s List: Russian winger Ivan Demidov soars to No. 2 behind Macklin Celebrini | TSN

As far as your challenge, quite the task but

Sources: Russian NHL Players ‑ All-Time Stats

Vyacheslav Kozlov was 5'10 190lbs (853 career points).

You had the Bure brother who we're small and light (Pavel was 180 in his draft year).

Igor Larionov (5'9 170) 644 points in 921 games. ranks #17

Sergei Samsonov is another high point guy.

Mogilny was only 5'11. 200 pounds yes but Demidov will probably end up around 190, is 10 pound really the difference maker in the current league with no hooking?

You exclude Kucherov and Datsyuk but I won't. Panarin like I said is light.

Kaprizov was 185 in his draft year if we trust this link: Kirill Kaprizov | Kirill Kaprizov Profile | Kirill Kaprizov Scouting Report 2015

Kuzmenko has a good start at 5'11 192 (which includes a 39 goal season).

Afinogenov had some success and was 5'11 194.

Don't see why Demidov couldn't get high 180 to 190. 6-10 pounds is nothing for a 18 year old.

I wonder what Demidov's real weight is? That would be important for me. Elite Prospects has him at 168 lbs. Other websites has him at 168 as well.

My gut tells me he tops out at 6'-0" and 185 lbs. This should not be a major red flag but at that size, you hope he's a real offensive threat and he doesn't shy away from contract or physical play. For every hit you can find, you will find many that are not hits.

I'm not low on Demidov. I'm just looking at the cons for everyone I might want to pick.

 

[GrandmaCookie]

I wonder what Demidov's real weight is. That would be important for me. Elite Prospects has him at 168 lbs.

NHL.com has him at 181 in their European prospect ranking: 2024 Draft Prospect Rankings

 

[Habs Halifax]

NHL.com has him at 181 in their European prospect ranking: 2024 Draft Prospect Rankings

I'm assuming he will be at the NHL combine?

 

[Habitant#1]

Doubt Turcotte would cost a late first.

The interest is to buy low on a young player drafted high who had a skill set that made him drafted high. And projecting an increase of production with a change of scenary and a new development coach.

That would greatly speed up the rebuild vs waiting and hoping a late first or early second comes and makes a difference.

I wasn't a fan of the formula at first but like what I saw from Dach and Newhook. Building the core with high picks and the depth with those kind of project player seems like a viable way to successfully build a talented team.

And why would the tank year be over? Do we project to vastly improve next season?

Here's where this doesn't make sense for me:
"That would greatly speed up the rebuild"
vs
"And why would the tank year be over?"

To me, these are opposite goals.
IMO you either try to accelerate the rebuild (which gets you out of the tanking yearas ASAP)
*OR*
You take your time and get more lottery picks.

You can't do both.


But I'd say this really begs a bigger question:
*WHY* are the Habs trying to accelerate the rebuild? What's the value in that? What's the rush?
I understand the risk of devleoping 'losing culture', but that risk is actually really low, it happens to very few teams (Ottawa, Arizona and Buffalo only right now), and it's usually because of dodgy ownership.

The much greater risk is becoming a middle of the pack team that is either a bubble playoff team or consistent 1st/2nd round exit team. This happens a lot more to teams than the 'losing culture' scenario. Currently half the NHL is roughly in this mushy middle.

IMO the best way to avoid this is to continue proper tanking until you acquire enough *elite* talent.

Habs have shot themselves in the foot with this 'competitive losing' BS that means they keep missing out on elite players in the draft. That and these trades to 'accelerate the rebuild' that just add more middling talent like Newhook. Jury's still out on Dach, but realistically is he even going to be as good as Suzuki (overall)?

I'm very worried about the lack of elite talent in this rebuild. You need that talent to win Stanley Cups. The only exceptions in the last 10+ years are St-Louis, a fluke, and Vegas, who benefitted from a clean slate and an expansion draft. Every other team has actual elite talent.

 

[GrandmaCookie]

Here's where this doesn't make sense for me:
"That would greatly speed up the rebuild"
vs
"And why would the tank year be over?"

To me, these are opposite goals.
IMO you either try to accelerate the rebuild (which gets you out of the tanking yearas ASAP)
*OR*
You take your time and get more lottery picks.

You can't do both.


But I'd say this really begs a bigger question:
*WHY* are the Habs trying to accelerate the rebuild? What's the value in that? What's the rush?
I understand the risk of devleoping 'losing culture', but that risk is actually really low, it happens to very few teams (Ottawa, Arizona and Buffalo only right now), and it's usually because of dodgy ownership.

The much greater risk is becoming a middle of the pack team that is either a bubble playoff team or consistent 1st/2nd round exit team. This happens a lot more to teams than the 'losing culture' scenario. Currently half the NHL is roughly in this mushy middle.

IMO the best way to avoid this is to continue proper tanking until you acquire enough *elite* talent.

Habs have shot themselves in the foot with this 'competitive losing' BS that means they keep missing out on elite players in the draft. That and these trades to 'accelerate the rebuild' that just add more middling talent like Newhook. Jury's still out on Dach, but realistically is he even going to be as good as Suzuki (overall)?

I'm very worried about the lack of elite talent in this rebuild. You need that talent to win Stanley Cups. The only exceptions in the last 10+ years are St-Louis, a fluke, and Vegas, who benefitted from a clean slate and an expansion draft. Every other team has actual elite talent.

For this rebuild, we had a 1OA, 2 5OA and most likely a top 6OA pick next season unless Dach is heathy and has a better season than Monahan had. Multiple top 3 pick in a row wasn't happening with Suzuki and Caufield already on the team. It is what is is. If you can't get some elite talent with those kind of picks the problem might the scouting staff instead of the strategy employed to rebuild.

Colorado build their core with Mackinnon(1), Makar(4), Rantanen(10)
Washington: Ovechkin(1), Backstrom(4), Kuznetsov (26), Carlson(27)
Los Angeles: Doughty(2),Kopitar(6), Quick(72)

picks 1-5-5 for the first 3 years of the rebuild is solid and should provide the opportunity to build an elite core.

 

[1000eeer]

I really hope we go after Laine at the draft.

The risk/reward profile of a move like that is quite interesting.

(MTL) Filip Mesar + WPG'S first round pick for Laine (CLB)

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Laine - Dach - Ignila
Roy - Kapanen - Newhook
Heineman - Beck - RHP

Hutson - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux
Engstrom - Barron

Extra: Struble, Harris, Xhekaj (x2),

 

[Vachon23]

I really hope we go after Laine at the draft.

The risk/reward profile of a move like that is quite interesting.

(MTL) Justin Barron + WPG'S first round pick for Laine (CLB)

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Laine - Dach - Ignila
Roy - Newhook - Armia

Getting someone with mental health problems is not a good idea in a market like MTL

 

[WeThreeKings]

Getting someone with mental health problems is not a good idea in a market like MTL

Brings nothing this Habs regime covets. Has spotty history as a good teammate. Perimeter player. Motor goes in and out.

 

[1000eeer]

Getting someone with mental health problems is not a good idea in a market like MTL

It's not like we're giving away Segachev for a guy with mental health issues...

Nice gamble IMO.

 

[Kosseca]

Brings nothing this Habs regime covets. Has spotty history as a good teammate. Perimeter player. Motor goes in and out.

It's like PLD, people have this romantic notion of what the player could bring and are ready to overlook the red flags.

Laine is pass....

 

[WeThreeKings]

It's like PLD, people have this romantic notion of what the player could bring and are ready to overlook the red flags.

Laine is pass....

Not to mention Laines salary.

 

[Canadienna]

Here's where this doesn't make sense for me:
"That would greatly speed up the rebuild"
vs
"And why would the tank year be over?"

To me, these are opposite goals.
IMO you either try to accelerate the rebuild (which gets you out of the tanking yearas ASAP)
*OR*
You take your time and get more lottery picks.

You can't do both.


But I'd say this really begs a bigger question:
*WHY* are the Habs trying to accelerate the rebuild? What's the value in that? What's the rush?
I understand the risk of devleoping 'losing culture', but that risk is actually really low, it happens to very few teams (Ottawa, Arizona and Buffalo only right now), and it's usually because of dodgy ownership.

The much greater risk is becoming a middle of the pack team that is either a bubble playoff team or consistent 1st/2nd round exit team. This happens a lot more to teams than the 'losing culture' scenario. Currently half the NHL is roughly in this mushy middle.

IMO the best way to avoid this is to continue proper tanking until you acquire enough *elite* talent.

Habs have shot themselves in the foot with this 'competitive losing' BS that means they keep missing out on elite players in the draft. That and these trades to 'accelerate the rebuild' that just add more middling talent like Newhook. Jury's still out on Dach, but realistically is he even going to be as good as Suzuki (overall)?

I'm very worried about the lack of elite talent in this rebuild. You need that talent to win Stanley Cups. The only exceptions in the last 10+ years are St-Louis, a fluke, and Vegas, who benefitted from a clean slate and an expansion draft. Every other team has actual elite talent.

I have a few thoughts to this question

a) Hughes and Gorton would say they want to accelerate things IF it doesn't compromise the long term plan.

b) I think you're dismissing the "losing culture" bit. It's not the right term, but it's about how complacency and competitiveness relate to player development. We want our guys hungry.

c) In my opinion we don't know how much "elite" talent we currently have. Between Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Dach, Caufield and Hutson there's certainly a ton of talent and potential.

Sure it would be nice to have won the lottery and gotten a Bedard or Celebrini, but I don't believe it's a necessity to competing for the cup. Many "elite" players in the league were not "elite" from the moment they hit the ice.

I think with another 5th overall pick this year, the rough core is set. We will keep adding good young players, but hopefully the high end talent is already in the system. Now we just have to unleash it.

 

[sampollock]

Brings nothing this Habs regime covets. Has spotty history as a good teammate. Perimeter player. Motor goes in and out.

sure did not turn out as a high pick did he

 

[Benstheman]

odds are that neither Demidov (CHI) or Lindstrom (CLB) are available at 5. So the Q is would it be worth to do this:

Demidov vs Catton/Iginla + 1st WIN + Harris?

Yep. Would do it for Demidov but not for Lindstrom.

Not to mention Laines salary.

What if we include Anderson in the deal?

 

[keppel146]

What’s MN gotta give to get #5?

Some combo of Gustavsson, Ohgren, Khusnutdinov, 2024 1st, 2025 2nd, Heidt?

 

[Milhouse40]

Here's where this doesn't make sense for me:
"That would greatly speed up the rebuild"
vs
"And why would the tank year be over?"

To me, these are opposite goals.
IMO you either try to accelerate the rebuild (which gets you out of the tanking yearas ASAP)
*OR*
You take your time and get more lottery picks.

You can't do both.


But I'd say this really begs a bigger question:
*WHY* are the Habs trying to accelerate the rebuild? What's the value in that? What's the rush?
I understand the risk of devleoping 'losing culture', but that risk is actually really low, it happens to very few teams (Ottawa, Arizona and Buffalo only right now), and it's usually because of dodgy ownership.

The much greater risk is becoming a middle of the pack team that is either a bubble playoff team or consistent 1st/2nd round exit team. This happens a lot more to teams than the 'losing culture' scenario. Currently half the NHL is roughly in this mushy middle.

IMO the best way to avoid this is to continue proper tanking until you acquire enough *elite* talent.

Habs have shot themselves in the foot with this 'competitive losing' BS that means they keep missing out on elite players in the draft. That and these trades to 'accelerate the rebuild' that just add more middling talent like Newhook. Jury's still out on Dach, but realistically is he even going to be as good as Suzuki (overall)?

I'm very worried about the lack of elite talent in this rebuild. You need that talent to win Stanley Cups. The only exceptions in the last 10+ years are St-Louis, a fluke, and Vegas, who benefitted from a clean slate and an expansion draft. Every other team has actual elite talent.

Tanking is not the rebuild.

You want to rebuild, you need to develop what you already have and to do so, you can't be fully tanking.

The biggest problem in here is that many, if not most wants the instant easy to get NHLready superstars, but they failed to realize that Half of NHL superstars were developped and not drafted that way.

The second biggest problem is that some would prefer getting a superstars even if it's not on a winning team. As example, Toronto has a whole lot of superstars....can't win shit in the PO but Caroline and Dallas are still both in the PO and both team together only have ONE players who is above PPG. We're building a winning team by developping players, not by drafting them and simply let them play

 

[tazsub3]

Tanking is not the rebuild.

You want to rebuild, you need to develop what you already have and to do so, you can't be fully tanking.

The biggest problem in here is that many, if not most wants the instant easy to get NHLready superstars, but they failed to realize that Half of NHL superstars were developped and not drafted that way.

The second biggest problem is that some would prefer getting a superstars even if it's not on a winning team. As example, Toronto has a whole lot of superstars....can't win shit in the PO but Caroline and Dallas are still both in the PO and both team together only have ONE players who is above PPG. We're building a winning team by developping players, not by drafting them and simply let them play

Thanks , you just said what I tried saying many times in much less eloquent ways .

 

[BaseballCoach]

IMO you either try to accelerate the rebuild (which gets you out of the tanking yearas ASAP)
*OR*
You take your time and get more lottery picks.

You can't do both.


But I'd say this really begs a bigger question:
*WHY* are the Habs trying to accelerate the rebuild? What's the value in that? What's the rush?
I understand the risk of devleoping 'losing culture', but that risk is actually really low, it happens to very few teams (Ottawa, Arizona and Buffalo only right now), and it's usually because of dodgy ownership.

The much greater risk is becoming a middle of the pack team that is either a bubble playoff team or consistent 1st/2nd round exit team. This happens a lot more to teams than the 'losing culture' scenario. Currently half the NHL is roughly in this mushy middle.

I don't buy that. There are only 4 teams left after the second round, and eight teams after the first round. Are you calling the 5th to 16th best teams "mushy middle"?

IMO the best way to avoid this is to continue proper tanking until you acquire enough *elite* talent.

I actually don't think so. Even losing teams generally have some elite talent. What winning teams have is a high compete level and depth as well.

Habs have shot themselves in the foot with this 'competitive losing' BS that means they keep missing out on elite players in the draft. That and these trades to 'accelerate the rebuild' that just add more middling talent like Newhook. Jury's still out on Dach, but realistically is he even going to be as good as Suzuki (overall)?

Huh?? Dach may not be elite, but are you saying Romanov was??

I'm very worried about the lack of elite talent in this rebuild. You need that talent to win Stanley Cups. The only exceptions in the last 10+ years are St-Louis, a fluke, and Vegas, who benefitted from a clean slate and an expansion draft. Every other team has actual elite talent.

"clean slate", LOL. Vegas started 7 years ago with no elite players, period. In the expansion draft, they got guys rated 9th or lower on each of the other teams.

What they did was assemble a competitive team and were not afraid to make moves to get key pieces. They gave to get.

 

[habsterr]

What’s MN gotta give to get #5?

Some combo of Gustavsson, Ohgren, Khusnutdinov, 2024 1st, 2025 2nd, Heidt?

Nothing from Minny is of interest. The fair value calculator would be #5 for #13+16

 

[vokiel]

It's like PLD, people have this romantic notion of what the player could bring and are ready to overlook the red flags.

Laine is pass....

That's wrong, PLD brings us a scapegoat. We lost ours, when Drouin left.

 

[Michoulicious]

What’s MN gotta give to get #5?

Some combo of Gustavsson, Ohgren, Khusnutdinov, 2024 1st, 2025 2nd, Heidt?

#13 + Minnesota's unprotected 1st at Montreal's choice in 2025 or 2026.