Speculation: Trade, FA & Rumour Thread

[Hunter368]

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[PhilJets]

First again



Prediction

Laine signs 5 x 9.2M

3UFA years up to 28 yrs old.
Still 1 massive contract after it for him.

By that time he will probably top 1 and 2 in all Trashers /Jets Offensive statistical category.
10 years.

 

[PhilJets]

If Jets can swing a Niku and Roslo for middle pairing D to bump down
Beulieu and Poolman.

That would be the best.

But its getting tighter and tighter that
Samberg and Heinola needs to step up.

Im positive they will, its just the time frame we need them to step up.

Which is game 1 of next season.

 

[voyageur]

If Jets can swing a Niku and Roslo for middle pairing D to bump down
Beulieu and Poolman.

That would be the best.

But its getting tighter and tighter that
Samberg and Heinola needs to step up.

Im positive they will, its just the time frame we need them to step up.

Which is game 1 of next season.

The addition of another defenseman, unless it's a RH defenseman also bumps down Samberg, to a replacement level, that's a tough choice. Only management would have a good sense of where he is at. I believe management wants to integrate Samberg into the team first.

If we go into the season with our current defense, we could be one injury from having too thin of a talent margin. Being a softer defense pretty much ensures the need for a Forbort or Beaulieu to be in the lineup. There isn't a softer team in Canada this year. If we keep Niku there is some offensive depth at least, while Heinola continues to develop a stronger game for another development season. Losing Roslovic could leave the Jets very thin in scoring depth, but there's other options for potential 3o point players.

Be interesting to see what Chevy does next.

Maybe we just sign Hamonic on a cheap deal. On a 31 player roster run

Morrissey-DeMelo
Samberg-Pionk
Beaulieu-Poolman
Forbort-Hamonic
Sbisa-Niku
Kovacevic

Re-sign Roslovic, 1 way, and Harkins 2 way, so that there is some forward competition in camp for roster spots.

 

[Jetsetter]

The addition of another defenseman, unless it's a RH defenseman also bumps down Samberg, to a replacement level, that's a tough choice. Only management would have a good sense of where he is at. I believe management wants to integrate Samberg into the team first.

If we go into the season with our current defense, we could be one injury from having too thin of a talent margin. Being a softer defense pretty much ensures the need for a Forbort or Beaulieu to be in the lineup. There isn't a softer team in Canada this year. If we keep Niku there is some offensive depth at least, while Heinola continues to develop a stronger game for another development season. Losing Roslovic could leave the Jets very thin in scoring depth, but there's other options for potential 3o point players.

Be interesting to see what Chevy does next.

Maybe we just sign Hamonic on a cheap deal. On a 31 player roster run

Morrissey-DeMelo
Samberg-Pionk
Beaulieu-Poolman
Forbort-Hamonic
Sbisa-Niku
Kovacevic

Re-sign Roslovic, 1 way, and Harkins 2 way, so that there is some forward competition in camp for roster spots.

What about Heinola?

 

[Gil Fisher]

I think we maximize our 2021-22 potential by playing both Samberg and Heinola 50 games this season.

It looks to me though, that they'll be hard-pressed to get 20 combined.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think we maximize our 2021-22 potential by playing both Samberg and Heinola 50 games this season.

It looks to me though, that they'll be hard-pressed to get 20 combined.

Why do you say they will have a hard time getting games?
If because of the signings of Beaulieu, Forbort and Sbisa don't worry about it. They can all be sent down with zero cap hit, or 200k in Beaulieu's case.

They are there as insurance in case Samberg and/or Heinola are not ready.

 

[voyageur]

What about Heinola?

He's not coming over midseason. Add him an the end of the Liiga.

 

[voyageur]

Why do you say they will have a hard time getting games?
If because of the signings of Beaulieu, Forbort and Sbisa don't worry about it. They can all be sent down with zero cap hit, or 200k in Beaulieu's case.

They are there as insurance in case Samberg and/or Heinola are not ready.

Sent down where? Is there going to be an AHL? I'd be looking at an expanded roster, which is more of an opportunity. Heinola isn't coming here this year. Maybe for the playoffs. But with all the Laine talk, and people being upset that his career with the Jets could be over at 23, well if you don't start Heinola until 20, like most prospects, that's more quality years you are guaranteed on his contract, the ELC part would end at the same time Wheeler's, Scheif's and Hellebuyck's expire, and the Jets may need a good chunk of Wheeler's salary to pay him by then.

 

[Gm0ney]

Why do you say they will have a hard time getting games?
If because of the signings of Beaulieu, Forbort and Sbisa don't worry about it. They can all be sent down with zero cap hit, or 200k in Beaulieu's case.

They are there as insurance in case Samberg and/or Heinola are not ready.

All of those players have to clear waivers - probably not a big issue for Sbisa (although the Jets claimed him off waivers last year). I wouldn't expect Forbort to clear. Beaulieu...maybe? And since they're all on 1-way deals, their salaries are not subject to escrow if they're sent down. So the Jets are on the hook for every penny of Sbisa's $800k, Forbort's $1M and Beaulieu's $1.25M. No way in hell those guys get sent down when Samberg and Heinola don't have to clear waivers and would only make $70k in the AHL.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sent down where? Is there going to be an AHL? I'd be looking at an expanded roster, which is more of an opportunity. Heinola isn't coming here this year. Maybe for the playoffs. But with all the Laine talk, and people being upset that his career with the Jets could be over at 23, well if you don't start Heinola until 20, like most prospects, that's more quality years you are guaranteed on his contract, the ELC part would end at the same time Wheeler's, Scheif's and Hellebuyck's expire, and the Jets may need a good chunk of Wheeler's salary to pay him by then.

It doesn't matter to this issue. They get sent to the 'minors' whether the minors are actually playing or not. The point is that they are not on the Jets roster. They are on the Moose roster.

They can't expand the roster without raising the cap. They are not going to do that. Less than zero chance of that happening. A taxi squad is more likely. Players on AHL rosters, drawing AHL salaries, practicing with the NHL teams to keep them ready for call-up.

Heinola may, or may not come for TC. He and a few others may be with their national teams playing the WJC. Other than TC, I think he will likely stay with his Liiga team until their season is over, unless he gets called up for injury replacement or makes the team out of TC. I don't think they will have players like him going back and forth to their Euro teams. Once they are recalled, they will stay, with the exceptions of WJC and TC. I think he will really have to kick the door in to make the team out of TC, but he very nearly did that last year, so you never know. He might make it this year.

 

[tbcwpg]

Why do you say they will have a hard time getting games?
If because of the signings of Beaulieu, Forbort and Sbisa don't worry about it. They can all be sent down with zero cap hit, or 200k in Beaulieu's case.

They are there as insurance in case Samberg and/or Heinola are not ready.

I think Forbort is here to start the season on the 2nd pair. The other guys are probably depth.

 

[voyageur]

It doesn't matter to this issue. They get sent to the 'minors' whether the minors are actually playing or not. The point is that they are not on the Jets roster. They are on the Moose roster.

They can't expand the roster without raising the cap. They are not going to do that. Less than zero chance of that happening. A taxi squad is more likely. Players on AHL rosters, drawing AHL salaries, practicing with the NHL teams to keep them ready for call-up.

Heinola may, or may not come for TC. He and a few others may be with their national teams playing the WJC. Other than TC, I think he will likely stay with his Liiga team until their season is over, unless he gets called up for injury replacement or makes the team out of TC. I don't think they will have players like him going back and forth to their Euro teams. Once they are recalled, they will stay, with the exceptions of WJC and TC. I think he will really have to kick the door in to make the team out of TC, but he very nearly did that last year, so you never know. He might make it this year.

I don't if you are right or not about the Cap or not. You are not going to bring players over from Europe to have them on a taxi squad. With no AHL, we have guys that need playing time, and won't get it, unless they go to a lower league.

As for costs, I calculated that adding 8 players to an expanded roster at a $750 000 AAV is an extra $6 million in budget costs for owners. What are the operating costs of an AHL franchise? Seems like a way to save some money?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

All of those players have to clear waivers - probably not a big issue for Sbisa (although the Jets claimed him off waivers last year). I wouldn't expect Forbort to clear. Beaulieu...maybe? And since they're all on 1-way deals, their salaries are not subject to escrow if they're sent down. So the Jets are on the hook for every penny of Sbisa's $800k, Forbort's $1M and Beaulieu's $1.25M. No way in hell those guys get sent down when Samberg and Heinola don't have to clear waivers and would only make $70k in the AHL.

At the end of TC a lot of players always clear waivers who would not at any other time.

If Samberg and/or Heinola make the team, some of Beaulieu, Forbort, Sbisa, Niku will be waived. If they are claimed, they are claimed. It is the same every year when there are prospects on the cusp of making it. If they make the team, they stay, if they don't, they don't.

Right now we have 8 D, counting Niku. If 1 of the 2 rookies makes the team, 1 of those 8 will be waived. If 2 of them make it, then 2 will be waived. If none make it, then none are waived. This is all very black and white. Whether they make the team or not is another matter. I think they will need to very clearly make it.

 

[KingBogo]

I think Forbort is here to start the season on the 2nd pair. The other guys are probably depth.

I hope Samberg pushes him to the 3rd, but you are right that Forbort is a legit NHLer and not like one of the AHL tweeners we had to rely on last season. Unless he gets injured he will be an everyday player for us next season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Forbort is here to start the season on the 2nd pair. The other guys are probably depth.

I'm not talking probabilities. I'm talking possibilities.

Probabilities, I'm not sure if it is more likely Forbort or Beaulieu at 2LD. I think that is decided in TC. My best guess opening day, assuming no TC injuries:
Morrissey - DeMelo
Beaulieu/Forbort - Pionk
Samberg - Poolman
Forbort/Beaulieu - Sbisa
Niku waived if he hasn't been traded.

There are always possibilities of TC surprises too. Maybe Kovacevic pushes Poolman down, for instance. That would likely lead to Sbisa being waived.

A lot of things get sorted out in TC.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't if you are right or not about the Cap or not. You are not going to bring players over from Europe to have them on a taxi squad. With no AHL, we have guys that need playing time, and won't get it, unless they go to a lower league.

As for costs, I calculated that adding 8 players to an expanded roster at a $750 000 AAV is an extra $6 million in budget costs for owners. What are the operating costs of an AHL franchise? Seems like a way to save some money?

I agree that the Euro players will not be on the taxi squads. Real games are a lot better than practice.

They are obviously scrambling to find places for players to play. They aren't being loaned to Euro teams for no reason.

8 x 750k is still a lot more than 25 x 70k, 6 mil to 1.75 mil.

I'm surprised we have not heard much/anything discussed about the taxi squad idea. It seems like a must to me. But they haven't officially cancelled the AHL season yet, have they?

I expect it would need to be negotiated with the NHLPA before they could go ahead with it.

8 x 750k would require raising the cap by 6 mil. How else could they do it? If they leave the cap as is they would need to drop a 6 mil player to make room. They do that and some teams will just use it as a way out of cap hell. They will have taxi squads of 3-4 players and gain 3-4 mil cap space.

 

[tbcwpg]

I'm not talking probabilities. I'm talking possibilities.

Probabilities, I'm not sure if it is more likely Forbort or Beaulieu at 2LD. I think that is decided in TC. My best guess opening day, assuming no TC injuries:
Morrissey - DeMelo
Beaulieu/Forbort - Pionk
Samberg - Poolman
Forbort/Beaulieu - Sbisa
Niku waived if he hasn't been traded.

There are always possibilities of TC surprises too. Maybe Kovacevic pushes Poolman down, for instance. That would likely lead to Sbisa being waived.

A lot of things get sorted out in TC.

Forbort is more effective than Beaulieu so I'd give forbort the advantage unless 88 pushes him out.

 

[voyageur]

I agree that the Euro players will not be on the taxi squads. Real games are a lot better than practice.

They are obviously scrambling to find places for players to play. They aren't being loaned to Euro teams for no reason.

8 x 750k is still a lot more than 25 x 70k, 6 mil to 1.75 mil.

I'm surprised we have not heard much/anything discussed about the taxi squad idea. It seems like a must to me. But they haven't officially cancelled the AHL season yet, have they?

I expect it would need to be negotiated with the NHLPA before they could go ahead with it.

8 x 750k would require raising the cap by 6 mil. How else could they do it? If they leave the cap as is they would need to drop a 6 mil player to make room. They do that and some teams will just use it as a way out of cap hell. They will have taxi squads of 3-4 players and gain 3-4 mil cap space.

I think they will raise the Cap to have expanded rosters. You are only doing the math of salary costs of operating an AHL franchise and ignoring that usually 4 guys on that roster are earning 300 000+, for instance Comrie is paid an NHL salary this year, Toninato is over $300 000. If we don't have fans, they won't and so you are literally running a team with no income, as there are little to no TV or merchandising revenues to be had, and you still have to pay for travel and whatever other ancillary costs are involved in running a franchise.

I think that's the way it starts at least, and I would not be entirely surprised to see the entire AHL season cancelled.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Forbort is more effective than Beaulieu so I'd give forbort the advantage unless 88 pushes him out.

Maybe, maybe not. We'll see in TC. I wouldn't bet either way.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think they will raise the Cap to have expanded rosters. You are only doing the math of salary costs of operating an AHL franchise. If we don't have fans, they won't and so you are literally running a team with no income, as there are little to no TV or merchandising revenues to be had, and you still have to pay for travel and whatever other ancillary costs are involved in running a franchise.

I think that's the way it starts at least, and I would not be entirely surprised to see the entire AHL season cancelled.

Actual money is incredibly tight right now.

I don't see raising the cap at this point as being even remotely possible. They are already too deeply committed to this cap. Many, probably most, teams are trying to figure out where they are going to get the cash from as it is.

I expect the AHL season to be cancelled. But you are counting the savings as though they had that money set aside and it would suddenly become available. I don't see it that way. I doubt they have the money to operate the AHL anyway. Cancelling the AHL season just means less losses.

 

[voyageur]

Actual money is incredibly tight right now.

I don't see raising the cap at this point as being even remotely possible. They are already too deeply committed to this cap. Many, probably most, teams are trying to figure out where they are going to get the cash from as it is.

I expect the AHL season to be cancelled. But you are counting the savings as though they had that money set aside and it would suddenly become available. I don't see it that way. I doubt they have the money to operate the AHL anyway. Cancelling the AHL season just means less losses.

I do. You are looking at about $40 million in TV revenues per team being split up, plus local TV/radio deals. Plus merchandising revenues being split up. Which at least put the team's salary structure into a reasonable operating cost, especially with escrow. The owners will have to pay the travel/meal expenses at losses, until the fans come back.

An extra $6 million for multimillionaires and billionaires is a drop in the bucket. I believe that's why teams have spent over the Cap to date. They aren't feeling leveraged.

Operating the AHL makes little sense under this restrictive environment.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I do. You are looking at about $40 million in TV revenues per team being split up, plus local TV/radio deals. Plus merchandising revenues being split up. Which at least put the team's salary structure into a reasonable operating cost, especially with escrow. The owners will have to pay the travel/meal expenses at losses, until the fans come back.

An extra $6 million for multimillionaires and billionaires is a drop in the bucket. I believe that's why teams have spent over the Cap to date. They aren't feeling leveraged.

Operating the AHL makes little sense under this restrictive environment.

It is never about the owners total worth. The business unit needs to at least pay for itself.

If you are going to focus on all of those secondary revenue streams, you better look more closely at all the other costs too.

I never said they should operate the AHL. I don't see that as having much chance at all of happening. But raising the cap at this point is just about the least likely thing I can think of. Right up there with flying pigs and Donald Trump getting elected President of the US.

 

[voyageur]

It is never about the owners total worth. The business unit needs to at least pay for itself.

If you are going to focus on all of those secondary revenue streams, you better look more closely at all the other costs too.

I never said they should operate the AHL. I don't see that as having much chance at all of happening. But raising the cap at this point is just about the least likely thing I can think of. Right up there with flying pigs and Donald Trump getting elected President of the US.

I don't see any logical way that you can pay someone an AHL salary to travel with an NHL team, that would be a tough one in the CBA? And with a condensed schedule looming, as you need TV revenues, an expanded roster makes sense. Especially if you have a certain number of players in quarantine, as is quite likely to happen, unless you stay in the bubble, which has about as much chance of happening as Joe Biden being elected for president.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't see any logical way that you can pay someone an AHL salary to travel with an NHL team, that would be a tough one in the CBA? And with a condensed schedule looming, as you need TV revenues, an expanded roster makes sense. Especially if you have a certain number of players in quarantine, as is quite likely to happen, unless you stay in the bubble, which has about as much chance of happening as Joe Biden being elected for president.

The taxi squad concept would have to be accepted by the PA. No question. They would need to agree on a set of rules for how it functions.

An expanded roster might make sense in a lot of ways. But I think the need to raise the cap makes it entirely out of the question, quite apart from any arguments about the actual money being spent. They are committed to the 81.5 cap.

I have wondered about taking the taxi squad with them on the road. They could stay at home and practice. Hire an assistant coach to work with them. I could see it go either way. Coach might not want an extra 6 bodies at practice, diluting the focus on the next game. It is a little harder working with a larger group. But maybe that is insignificant, I don't know. It also adds to the cost. More airline tickets, more hotel rooms, more per diems.