Speculation: Trade Deadline

[predwings]

Look if you don't believe in stats being a determining factor in things that's fine, but, just because I believe that stats show us a better picture of a players success/failure. I do believe there is a necessary year to gather those stats and 1st year is typically not a gauge of long-term success. Holzer could come in and light it up and outscore Josi down the stretch or he could come in, take some bad penalties and cost us the playoffs. I'm not mad that Holzer was traded for, I'm mad that David Poile gave our 6th rounder away for free. If you all believe Holzer is well worth the 6th round pick then by all means come out and shout it from the rooftops, it'll be that much easier to call you out when you want him gone in a season from now if even that long.

Korbinian Holzer Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

There's Holzer's stats if you scroll down you can find advanced stats, if you hover your mouse of the category it will explain what the stats are and how to understand them better.

Here's a couple stats that may or may not help

- Xtakeaways/60 -
Holzer - 0.04/60
Irwin - 0.15/60

- Xgiveaways/60 -
Holzer - 0.59/60
Irwin - 0.30/60

- Xblockedshots/60 -
Holzer - 1.85/60
Irwin - 1.11/60

- Xhits/60 -
Holzer - 1.96/60
Irwin - 1.96/60

This is /60 that I just did per this seasons stats only. Extrapolating the data you can see that Holzer is twice as likely to lose the puck as Irwin (Which we all destroyed Irwin for in the past) he is 3 times less likely to take the puck away from someone else meaning more zone time for the other team. He is however about 1 blocked shot per game better than Irwin, they are both about equal in their physicality level per 60.

So talk of him being bigger and more physical seem to be a bit of a fraud.

 

[Kat Predator]

 

[Kat Predator]

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Shockingly, I care more about draft picks than I do winning fights.

But that's just me

 

[Legionnaire11]

Look if you don't believe in stats being a determining factor in things that's fine,

Nobody here is saying Holzer is a vast upgrade on Irwin, or that he's worth a 6th. The argument is that you are apparently losing your mind over this, and then continually using stats to back up your opinion which don't support the opinion. Holzer is probably an awful defenseman, but so was Irwin and we've yet to see Holzer play with this roster, for this coach.

None of the stats you've shared mean anything, because you're comparing different development, teammates, systems and assignments and excluding things that cannot be quantified by numbers like gap control, positioning, awareness, stick work, crease clearing, etc.

Lets see what Hynes (actually Scuderi probably) can do with this guy before blasting Poile for making the trade. Again, Tinordi is a real world comparison in this very season. Or think back to 2015 when Justin Schultz was ripped to shreds day after day by fans, then went to Pittsburgh and turned it around almost instantly under Sergei Gonchar's tutelage.


From the fantastic book "23 to Win"...

23toWin - Book, Hockey, Nhl

Coaches don't want to be shown a breakdown or a mistake -- they can see these for themselves. They want to know why it happened and how to prevent it happening again. They want a report telling them that x percent of the team's zone entries were controlled entries, and that if the rate is subpar, the contributing factors are, for example, that opposing defenses are gapping up against the team's forwards, that the team is not making enough forward passes through the neutral zone, or that the team's not driving up through the neutral zone with enough speed. The goal is to find and exploit flaws in an opponent's system and execution, or to identify and correct deficiencies in a team's own play.

Typically, coaches will be interested in scoring-chance metrics first, followed by puck possession metrics and then the myriad of measurements underlying them, such as battles won or lost ..... the advantage will fall to those who can sense which metrics and trends are important ..... who can then identify and interpret which of them is actionable, and who can communicate - in hockey language - what the data means to coaches and players grounded in the reality and intensity of on-ice competition

Which to me, spells it out pretty clearly that the most important aspect of hockey is the eye-test, and the analytics is the supporting foundation below that. Neither is optimal without the other, nor without someone who knows what the numbers mean and how it translates to what the players are doing on the ice.

Analytics aren't really for fans, there's not really anything useful we can do with them outside of annoying one another. They're certainly not predictive and hardly descriptive either without that human element, the coaches mind and eye-test, to weigh them with and against.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Shockingly, I care more about draft picks than I do winning fights.

But that's just me

They don't have to be exclusive. Here's a great documentary about fighting in the NHL...

Ice Guardians The Movie - On-ice enforcers struggle to rise through the professional ranks of the world's most prestigious hockey league, only to be confronted with a new found fight for the existence of the role itself.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

i think the sheer joy ducks fans showed when realizing they got rid of holzer tells me a lot. the celebration that ensued learning they actually got a pick back was comical.

holzer is going to be pretty bad just like irwin. that i have little doubt. getting bigger and tougher on the backend though isn't a bad thing.

i personally have way more issues with the guys making big bucks than the irwins or holzers of the world. even as bad as irwin hamhuis or bitetto were at times over the past several seasons, what has lost this team more points and playoffs series is our "star" players not stepping up against quality competition. our top guys are frauds.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Meh...the stand pat team won. I wish we traded at least an asset or two for some picks, but whatevs.

 

[OldFan]

Irwin and Holzer; Holzer and Irwin. Good grief, your 6/7 defense man is never good otherwise he’d be a 1/4. Question is, is he serviceable? Well, usually yes because he’s in the NHL, not the AHL/ECHL. Irwin lost his spot here so they replaced him with a bigger guy. Why? Cause Irwin lost his spot here and this guy’s bigger. But I digress.
I mean he is not here to replace Josi, Ellis or Ekholm.

 

[PredsV82]

Shockingly, I care more about draft picks than I do winning fights.

But that's just me

I see it differently. We've lost something like 40 man-games from townofnour best players from thuggery. If somehow Holzers presence prevents even one goonish injury, it's well worth that 6th round pick from 2022.

 

[JustaFinnishGuy]

I see it differently. We've lost something like 40 man-games from townofnour best players from thuggery. If somehow Holzers presence prevents even one goonish injury, it's well worth that 6th round pick from 2022.

No it's not. We wouldn't even be benefitting from getting some superstar injured, especially if he's on the other conference.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Of course the Ducks make their players shop for their own gear.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I see it differently. We've lost something like 40 man-games from townofnour best players from thuggery. If somehow Holzers presence prevents even one goonish injury, it's well worth that 6th round pick from 2022.

Holzer doesn't prevent anything on that front whatsoever. He's not standing in the crease at the other end of the ice to throw his body in front of a Bortuzzo crosscheck. His German-accented profanities shouted from the end of the bench don't inspire Corey Perry to suddenly convert from a lifetime of douchebaggery.

But hey, if we're lucky, maybe he'll crosscheck an opposing team member in front of our net. That's still a good thing. It doesn't prevent nefarious deeds from befalling our other players. But maybe it hurts some of theirs. Or helps deter them from standing unopposed in our crease and scooping up as many juuse rebounds () as some of our other D let them do.

And if he actually causes one goonish injury to a key opponent... or even to a Corey Perry... well hey, that might be worth the 6th too. For some vindictive entertainment value, at least.

 

[101st_fan]

We are just gonna have to agree to disagree here. Replacing Granlund or Smith with Trenin is not a tank job.

Don't back off of your months of tank now posts after you didn't get the sell off you wanted.

 

[LCPreds]

From Craig Custance of the Athletic:

Nashville Predators: D-plus
Maybe this grade will be proven wrong. Maybe the Predators will right the ship and get into the playoffs and make some noise. But this trade deadline was an opportunity to reset for a moment, get some assets for UFAs like Mikael Granlund and Craig Smith that might help in the offseason to address the bigger needs. The Predators chose not to do that so GM David Poile apparently has seen enough good lately from his team to let it ride.

That D+ grade was the worst in the league. One man’s opinion of course and he does offer some optimism in the final sentence though in reading between the lines I don’t think he believes what Poile apparently believes.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

From Craig Custance of the Athletic:



That D+ grade was the worst in the league. One man’s opinion of course and he does offer some optimism in the final sentence though in reading between the lines I don’t think he believes what Poile apparently believes.

I don't even bother reading the trash written by people that have no clue about the Preds.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I don't even bother reading the trash written by people that have no clue about the Preds.

Custance is a good read as is The Athletic

 

[Predsanddead24]

Well Custance did give the Devils and A- and us a C+ plus for the Subban trade so I'm not sure he has any particularly keen foresight into whether the moves we make are good for us or not. Good writer sure but I'm not sure his opinions are necessarily any better than your average poster on here.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Well Custance did give the Devils and A- and us a C+ plus for the Subban trade so I'm not sure he has any particularly keen foresight into whether the moves we make are good for us or not. Good writer sure but I'm not sure his opinions are necessarily any better than your average poster on here.

Differing opinions don't make people/opinions trash generally speaking though.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Differing opinions don't make people/opinions trash generally speaking though.

Sorry didn't mean to imply it was a trash opinion like the other poster said just that I don't put any additional weight on opinions given by media pundits.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Differing opinions don't make people/opinions trash generally speaking though.

Uniformed opinions are of no use to me and therefore, trash.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Sorry didn't mean to imply it was a trash opinion like the other poster said just that I don't put any additional weight on opinions given by media pundits.

Not sure of the validity of Custance, but he does refer to scouts and team sources when discussing teams. The opinion he had was basically the same stance I think almost a majority had on our boards.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Uniformed opinions are of no use to me and therefore, trash.

Such a terrible terrible take. You didn't read an article, then say the article is uniformed and therefore trash. You are literally uniformed about something and complain they are uninformed.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

From Craig Custance of the Athletic:



That D+ grade was the worst in the league. One man’s opinion of course and he does offer some optimism in the final sentence though in reading between the lines I don’t think he believes what Poile apparently believes.

Seems like a fair grade to me. From a certain perspective, anyway. If you truly believe this team sucks and there's no point in chasing a playoff spot, then not getting anything for our UFAs is an opportunity missed. Poile should actually just get an "F" if that's your position. D+ is a cop-out.

Whereas if you are really invested in trying to win, and "anything can happen" once you get to the playoffs, then probably you want your team to be bold and aggressive, like say Carolina, where you go out and proactively address needs and make big deadline deals to try to a) make the playoffs, and b) have a better chance of winning when you get there. And if that's your position, Poile also did nothing remotely like that and should get an "F" again.

Then somewhere in the middle where most of us are at... we recognize the team has struggled in a lot of areas this year such that playoff success seems highly doubtful, regardless of any deadline adds. We saw adds last couple years that did nothing whatsoever for us. But at the same time, selling and giving up is distasteful. We don't want to pack it in and be quitters. Something is off with this team, but nobody knows how to fix it or what the timeline is on fixing it. Can't really blame Poile for being on the fence right now. The timing isn't right to take either of the traditional stances. I don't know if you give out an "A" just for being unsure and hiding in the shadows, though. But a nice safe C+ or B- would seem about right.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Not sure of the validity of Custance, but he does refer to scouts and team sources when discussing teams. The opinion he had was basically the same stance I think almost a majority had on our boards.

Seems like the general consensus was stand pat at least based on the poll in here. Probably seems like more people wanted to sell based on the reactions since that's what we didn't do. I imagine the stand pat crew would have been louder had we actually sold.

Either way I have a hard time thinking that we had the worst trade deadline of any team. Arizona gave up a pretty good haul for Taylor Hall because they got off to a hot start in a year they really didn't have much hope of really competing and are now struggling yet they get a B+. The Leafs, Sabres, Canucks, Flames, and Jets who are in essentially the same playoff position as us or worse all either bought or stood pat with their UFAs yet all got better grades than us. It really just doesn't seem internally consistent with how he rated teams to me.