Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLVIII

[GuerinUp]

But can we move them for absolutely no money coming back? That's part of what needs to go really right. And if there's no money coming back, are we fine with trading Dumba for just a 3rd round pick?

i mean if its between dumba for a 3rd and keeping eichel, i think thats a decision without any real conversation needed.

 

[nickschultzfan]

if fiala is in the trade we can easily fit eichel in this year and probably next even without moving anything major.

the amount of cap space made from the buyout this year is the exact amount of eichels cap.

If Fiala goes out for Eichel, the future is Rossi will be playing wing for the Wild and Zucc will be moved (with Boldy replacing Fiala).

 

[2Pair]

i mean if its between dumba for a 3rd and keeping eichel, i think thats a decision without any real conversation needed.

If you give up what it takes to get Eichel, and then a year later are forced to throw away players like Greenway/Dumba just to make the cap work, all you're doing is wasting time and money

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

i mean if its between dumba for a 3rd and keeping eichel, i think thats a decision without any real conversation needed.

Ok, but Eichel already costed you Fiala+, so now it's Fiala + whatever else it took to make the trade, and if in future years you're adding Dumba + Zuccarello + Greenway/Foligno. I mean, it can come a point where it does stop making sense, especially if the initial + next to Fiala already hurts.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If Fiala goes out for Eichel, the future is Rossi will be playing wing for the Wild and Zucc will be moved (with Boldy replacing Fiala).

Assuming one isn't playing in Buffalo.

 

[GuerinUp]

If you give up what it takes to get Eichel, and then a year later are forced to throw away players like Greenway/Dumba just to make the cap work, all you're doing is wasting time and money

well that depends on two things:
1) what it actually cost to get eichel
2) if we were planning on keeping greenway or dumba to begin with.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

This is how I got into the 4th year...

Spoiler: Saving Space

For all future years, 4th liners and backup goalies are making $900k and 13th forwards and 7th defensemen are making $750k

2021-22

Fiala + Rossi for Eichel
Seattle takes Soucy
Kaprizov 4 x $7.75
Cole 2 x $1.5

Kaprizov - Eichel - Zuccarello
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
Foligno - Sturm - Hartman
X - Rask - Bjugstad

Spurgeon - Brodin
X - Dumba
Cole - Addison

Talbot/Kahkonen

$5+ million to fill the X's

2022-23

Zuccarello traded for no cap back
Greenway 5 x $4.4
Sturm 3 x $1.3
Kahkonen 3 x $2.3

Beckman - Eichel - Kaprizov
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
Foligno - Sturm - Hartman

Brodin - Spurgeon
O'Rourke - Dumba
Cole - Addison

Talbot/Kahkonen

~$500k cap space

2023-24

Foligno traded
Boldy 2 x $3.5
Dumba re-signs at no increase
Addison 2 x $2.5

Beckman - Eichel - Kaprizov
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
X - Sturm - Hartman

Brodin - Spurgeon
O'Rourke - Dumba
Hunt - Addison

Kahkonen

~$700k cap space to fill the X

2024-25 (last year)

Beckman - Eichel - Kaprizov
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
X - Sturm - X

Brodin - Spurgeon
O'Rourke - Dumba
Hunt - Addison

Kahkonen

$3.3M cap space to re-sign Beckman and fill the X's

 

[Webster]

I heard Eichel is not that much of a character guy, this doesn't fit with Guerin's culture thing...

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Assuming one isn't playing in Buffalo.

Thank you.

This "plan" I keep seeing is heavily reliant on ELCs, but it will cost at least one bigger one to acquire Eichel. Even a straight swap of Eichel for Fiala and nothing else (never happening,) we'd be losing a major piece to stay compliant as soon as next summer. Assume Soucy is gone, and we have 10 total players (non-ELCs) signed taking up $69,535,255 next summer.

You would need to sign 7 forwards, 4 defensemen and a goalie with $11,964,745.

Conservatively: Greenway @ $3,500,000, Khakonnen @ $2,500,000 leaves $5,964,745 for 4 defensemen, and 6 forwards. Pop in Boldy (pending RFA,) Rossi, Beckman?, Addison (pending RFA,) and O'Rourke and you are still short 1 defensemen and 3 forwards with $1,613,911. Dewar's an RFA so he needs signed, vet minimum deals still would be too much. Trade Greenway's rights for picks (bad idea) would work to get some space, but not taking salary back in a Zuccarello or Dumba trade will be nearly impossible without take pennies on the dollar. Assume Sturm if he's the new 3C gets a raise and Bjugstadt keeps signing for $900K, are still struggling.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

But can we move them for absolutely no money coming back? That's part of what needs to go really right. And if there's no money coming back, are we fine with trading Dumba for just a 3rd round pick?

if we trade dumba for a 2nd, greenway for a 3rd and zucc for a 3rd, value seems off but for cap reasons it would work. depending how everyone develops that we already have and draft this year.

 

[ctmagic]

Relax guys. GMBG has a plan.

 

[guitarhunterdude]

Relax guys. GMBG has a plan.

Well thank f*** he said that, I was almost nervous he might publicly admit he didn't know what he was doing for a minute there

 

[Bazeek]

This is how I got into the 4th year...

Spoiler: Saving Space

For all future years, 4th liners and backup goalies are making $900k and 13th forwards and 7th defensemen are making $750k

2021-22

Fiala + Rossi for Eichel
Seattle takes Soucy
Kaprizov 4 x $7.75
Cole 2 x $1.5

Kaprizov - Eichel - Zuccarello
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
Foligno - Sturm - Hartman
X - Rask - Bjugstad

Spurgeon - Brodin
X - Dumba
Cole - Addison

Talbot/Kahkonen

$5+ million to fill the X's

2022-23

Zuccarello traded for no cap back
Greenway 5 x $4.4
Sturm 3 x $1.3
Kahkonen 3 x $2.3

Beckman - Eichel - Kaprizov
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
Foligno - Sturm - Hartman

Brodin - Spurgeon
O'Rourke - Dumba
Cole - Addison

Talbot/Kahkonen

~$500k cap space

2023-24

Foligno traded
Boldy 2 x $3.5
Dumba re-signs at no increase
Addison 2 x $2.5

Beckman - Eichel - Kaprizov
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
X - Sturm - Hartman

Brodin - Spurgeon
O'Rourke - Dumba
Hunt - Addison

Kahkonen

~$700k cap space to fill the X

2024-25 (last year)

Beckman - Eichel - Kaprizov
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
X - Sturm - X

Brodin - Spurgeon
O'Rourke - Dumba
Hunt - Addison

Kahkonen

$3.3M cap space to re-sign Beckman and fill the X's

I've kind of been wondering about Dumba's chances of re-signing here at about the same number. Chances are it'd be a discount relative to the market... but if the cap remains flat, maybe it's not as much of one as I've assumed. And if he likes where he is, maybe he takes a haircut to stick around. I wouldn't count on it, but it doesn't seem out of the question, either.

 

[Mnsportsfan22]

I think this is how it went down.
Guerin went to the bosses and said look years 3 and 4 we will be stuck no matter what. I want to buy them out now and save space for years 1 and 2 and go for it. Years 3 and 4 will be reset and rebuild years.
The pitch he gave them was this.
Trade picks and minor prospects for a higher end center. Most likely one with 1 or 2 years left. (Anyone that fits that?)
Hope boldy and rossi are good to great year 1 or 2. If they are and you pair them with fiala kaprisov zuc and mystery high end center guy plus our stud 3rd shutdown line you have a chance.
Years 3 and 4 sell pieces that won't be young enough for another run years 5 and beyond

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I've kind of been wondering about Dumba's chances of re-signing here at about the same number. Chances are it'd be a discount relative to the market... but if the cap remains flat, maybe it's not as much of one as I've assumed. And if he likes where he is, maybe he takes a haircut to stick around. I wouldn't count on it, but it doesn't seem out of the question, either.

And I have no idea if this would have anything to do with it, but he also sort hasn't really lived up his current deal yet. Was on his way to the first year and got hurt; the last 2 years I'd be pretty hesitant to call him a $6 million defenseman. Still 2 years to change that though.

 

[Webster]

Relax guys. GMBG has a plan.

True. I see it this way...

It's seems like Guerin hopes Rossi will help with the center issue. What he needs first of all in free agency are defensemen, right now he only has four signed, except those in the minors. Then he could be looking for a center who doesn't require his entire farm.

 

[Bazeek]

And I have no idea if this would have anything to do with it, but he also sort hasn't really lived up his current deal yet. Was on his way to the first year and got hurt; the last 2 years I'd be pretty hesitant to call him a $6 million defenseman. Still 2 years to change that though.

Making $6m for the last few years instead of $4m certainly can't hurt, anyway.

 

[RussosBurner]

I think you guys are forgetting that the obvious plan is to trade for Eichel and in years 3/4 of the buyout, someone with a high AAV is simply going to get "hurt" and be out all year, only to return miraculously for the playoffs. Guerin is playing 4D chess here boys, try to keep up.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

I think this is how it went down.
Guerin went to the bosses and said look years 3 and 4 we will be stuck no matter what. I want to buy them out now and save space for years 1 and 2 and go for it. Years 3 and 4 will be reset and rebuild years.
The pitch he gave them was this.
Trade picks and minor prospects for a higher end center. Most likely one with 1 or 2 years left. (Anyone that fits that?)
Hope boldy and rossi are good to great year 1 or 2. If they are and you pair them with fiala kaprisov zuc and mystery high end center guy plus our stud 3rd shutdown line you have a chance.
Years 3 and 4 sell pieces that won't be young enough for another run years 5 and beyond

Hertl, Barkov, Zibanejad are all on the final year of their deal but they all have some sort of trade protection and Horvat, Larkin, MacKinnon (), and Monahan are all UFAs in two seasons.

You're not getting any of them for minor prospects and picks unfortunately in my opinion.

 

[57special]

i have a feeling an offer is already on the table, and that offer was before the buyout knowing the buyout was happening, and that buffalo is just waiting for the ED to see if offers increase and will pull the trigger at the draft draft

Yeah, Guerin had to be way ahead of just about everyone, knowing what we know now. I thought the only thing that made sense was including Dumba in a deal. Now, it would have to be Fiala and Rask, with a 1st, and maybe Marat/Beckman. If Rossi or Boldy is included in the deal then I'll rage. Fiala + Rossi/Boldy would be more than enough, with Rask thrown in to even out the cap. BUF could actually use him as as stopgap for a year at C till Cozens/Rossi get up to speed.

 

[GuerinUp]

Yeah, Guerin had to be way ahead of just about everyone, knowing what we know now. I thought the only thing that made sense was including Dumba in a deal. Now, it would have to be Fiala and Rask, with a 1st, and maybe Marat/Beckman. If Rossi or Boldy is included in the deal then I'll rage. Fiala + Rossi/Boldy would be more than enough, with Rask thrown in to even out the cap. BUF could actually use him as as stopgap for a year at C till Cozens/Rossi get up to speed.

i just dont think you can include rossi in that deal. boldy yes, as winger is easier to replace at cheaper prices. you need that rossi elc

 

[Mnsportsfan22]

Hertl, Barkov, Zibanejad are all on the final year of their deal but they all have some sort of trade protection and Horvat, Larkin, MacKinnon (), and Monahan are all UFAs in two seasons.

You're not getting any of them for minor prospects and picks unfortunately in my opinion.

3 1st round picks and Beckham go a long ways. Look we aren't doing this to suck for 4 years. Guerin won't have a job if that's the case. He has to know that and has to be up to something for this to make sense

 

[GuerinUp]

wonder if we try to get yandle to fill suters spot

 

[HotDish]

Doubtful they will pull a rebuild, but it would be nice to see Calgary try and sell parts. Buy low on a Monahan or try and buy Lindholm.

 

[57special]

I've kind of been wondering about Dumba's chances of re-signing here at about the same number. Chances are it'd be a discount relative to the market... but if the cap remains flat, maybe it's not as much of one as I've assumed. And if he likes where he is, maybe he takes a haircut to stick around. I wouldn't count on it, but it doesn't seem out of the question, either.

I think the fact that his good buddy would be making the same amount while playing the same position at more or less the same level(I'm saying this to be politic, but don't really believe it)would make it easier to swallow. Somewhat worried that Dumba will be introduced to one of Kaprizov's GF's girlfriend, and start to crave the bright lights of NYC or LA.