Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLVIII

[Mickey the mouse]

This is all fair in terms of why the AAV is higher than some of us expected. My questions are why it was so important to get all 8 years and what it's going to cost Guerin over the next 4, especially this summer. The cap situation with Ek projected at $4.5m was already hard to figure out, so while $5.25m isn't a lot higher it just makes things that much tighter.

Maybe the talks with Kaprizov changed things, though. If they were offering Kaprizov $8m+ on an 8 year deal and that fell through, maybe his AAV comes down by $1m on a 4 year deal. Now you can add more to Eriksson-Eks cap hit and buy those extra UFA years

I still worry about Fiala, though.

1st, JEE is a legit #2 C and in 3-5 years when cap is 85+ his contract is probably going to look team friendly.

I can totally see Kap going the Panarin route. No doubt in my mind.

Fiala is the question mark. I can see him being moved if Kap is signed long term. With Suter, Parise and Spurgeon on the books I don't see any way of signing all 3 of JEE, Kap and Fiala

At least all 3 of those players are 24-25 and if they all are signed for max term , 8 years, they will be 31ish when their contract ends. UNLIKE Spurgeon who will be 32 yrs old 2 months into the 1st year of his 8 year contract and it will end when he's 39 yrs old !!!!!!!!

HUGE DIFFERENCE

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[16thOverallSaveUs]

I still like Danault. He’s not a dynamic offensive player, but he was a consistent 50 point center that was great both ways when he was playing with Tatar and Gallagher. His role has shifted a bit this year with Suzuki’s emergence, but I still think he can be a 50 point guy. If this year helps us get him on a more team friendly deal that’s even better. He and Ek could play as the top 6 centers until Rossi emerges. Then you’ve got two incredible middle six centers. I wouldn’t touch 5M though to get it done.

 

[Bazeek]

1st, JEE is a legit #2 C and in 3-5 years when cap is 85+ his contract is probably going to look team friendly.

I can totally see Kap going the Panarin route. No doubt in my mind.

Fiala is the question mark. I can see him being moved if Kap is signed long term. With Suter, Parise and Spurgeon on the books I don't see any way of signing all 3 of JEE, Kap and Fiala

At least all 3 of those players are 24-25 and if they all are signed for max term , 8 years, they will be 31ish when their contract ends. UNLIKE Spurgeon who will be 32 yrs old 2 months into the 1st year of his 8 year contract and it will end when he's 39 yrs old !!!!!!!!

HUGE DIFFERENCE

It is very different than Spurgeon, I agree. But Spurgeon's already on the books, as are Zuccarello, Parise and Suter, so choices have to be made. Choosing to give Ek a little more money for a lot more term makes it harder to afford someone like Fiala or to upgrade at center (which is still needed even if you put Ek on a scoring line).

And who knows, maybe this all just points to a Parise buyout. That could end up solving most of the reservations I have, at least for next year.

 

[Bazeek]

I still like Danault. He’s not a dynamic offensive player, but he was a consistent 50 point center that was great both ways when he was playing with Tatar and Gallagher. His role has shifted a bit this year with Suzuki’s emergence, but I still think he can be a 50 point guy. If this year helps us get him on a more team friendly deal that’s even better. He and Ek could play as the top 6 centers until Rossi emerges. Then you’ve got two incredible middle six centers. I wouldn’t touch 5M though to get it done.

I worry about the price at this point and Danault wouldn't be my first choice, but I agree. I get that he and Ek are both defensive centers and that Danault can't shoot to save his life, but if you watch him play he's a different player than Ek is. He's better with the puck and plays more of a finesse game. Defensively he relies more on a good stick, where Ek relies more on strength and athleticism. He's not the ideal player to put between Kaprizov and Zuccarello, but if you think that Rossi will be that player long term I think Danault makes a good place-holder. I think he'd compliment those two better than Ek would.

I still prefer the trade route, but the options aren't jumping out at me there either. Maybe someone with 1 year left that doesn't cost a ton and you wouldn't mind letting walk is the play at this point. If Rossi does step up big maybe all you need is that stopgap.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I'm still hoping Rask is the one headed out. Him and Dumba would create 10 million in space.

 

[P10p]

I still like Danault. He’s not a dynamic offensive player, but he was a consistent 50 point center that was great both ways when he was playing with Tatar and Gallagher. His role has shifted a bit this year with Suzuki’s emergence, but I still think he can be a 50 point guy. If this year helps us get him on a more team friendly deal that’s even better. He and Ek could play as the top 6 centers until Rossi emerges. Then you’ve got two incredible middle six centers. I wouldn’t touch 5M though to get it done.

Hes only hit 50 points once and paced 50 another year.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Hes only hit 50 points once and paced 50 another year.

Great, so he’s be the only center on our team to hit 50 points. Sounds good at the right price

 

[thestonedkoala]

I think that Poile had the right idea with Arvidsson as he at least got something instead of nothing for the winger and I think Minnesota should look at doing something similar. My dream scenario is having a mini bidding war for Dumba and take the best offer so:

To Philadelphia: Dumba
To Minnesota: 2nd round pick + Morgan Frost

I know that doesn't sound like a lot, but it's this or lose Dumba for free. It gives Minnesota some more ammo in the upcoming draft as well. This frees up 6 million in cap space.

In the expansion draft have Parise and Suter both waive and go 7-3-1:

Protect: Zucarello, Fiala, Foligno, Greenway, Hartman, Eriksson-Ek, Sturm

Exposed: Rask and Parise

Protect: Spurgeon, Brodin, Soucy

Exposed: Suter

Goaltender:

Protect: Kahkonen

Exposed: Talbot

Seattle now has to select, Talbot, Suter, Rask or Parise, which in the grand scheme of things isn't great for Seattle.

Best case scenario: They select Rask
Worst case scenario: They select Talbot

So, Minnesota has 9 million more on the books of their project cap space, going up to 25 million.

Zucarello - ??? - Kaprizov (RFA)
Boldy - Eriksson-Ek - Fiala (RFA)
Greenway - Frost - Foligno
Sturm - Rask - Hartman

Brodin - Sprugeon
Suter - Addison
Soucy - Menell (?)

???
Kahkonen

+ Boldy (.880 million)
+ Frost (.863 million)
+ Addison (.795 million)

That's 2.5 million for the three of them, putting the cap down to 22.462 million

Kaprizov signs for 4/8 million per
Fiala signs for 4/7 million per

That's now 7.462 million to sign a goalie and a center

 

[P10p]

Great, so he’s be the only center on our team to hit 50 points. Sounds good at the right price

Very fair, was just saying. Hes not a consistent 50 point guy. He may develop into one though.

 

[Bazeek]

Hes only hit 50 points once and paced 50 another year.

Just about all of which are even strength points. Over the last 3 seasons he's 44th in 5v5 points/60, just under guys like Nylander and Aho and tied with Scheifele and Konecny. He would be little help on the powerplay but he's absolutely a contributor at even strength. If anything that leaves more room over the next few seasons to feed powerplay minutes to guys like Addison and Rossi, who have been spectacular there at lower levels.

He would not be my Plan A by any means, but in terms of a center that fits the team's medium term needs and doesn't cost anything but cap space he's not a bad option at all.

 

[2Pair]

I think that Poile had the right idea with Arvidsson as he at least got something instead of nothing for the winger and I think Minnesota should look at doing something similar. My dream scenario is having a mini bidding war for Dumba and take the best offer so:

To Philadelphia: Dumba
To Minnesota: 2nd round pick + Morgan Frost

I know that doesn't sound like a lot, but it's this or lose Dumba for free. It gives Minnesota some more ammo in the upcoming draft as well. This frees up 6 million in cap space.

In the expansion draft have Parise and Suter both waive and go 7-3-1:

Protect: Zucarello, Fiala, Foligno, Greenway, Hartman, Eriksson-Ek, Sturm

Exposed: Rask and Parise

Protect: Spurgeon, Brodin, Soucy

Exposed: Suter

Goaltender:

Protect: Kahkonen

Exposed: Talbot

Seattle now has to select, Talbot, Suter, Rask or Parise, which in the grand scheme of things isn't great for Seattle.

Best case scenario: They select Rask
Worst case scenario: They select Talbot

So, Minnesota has 9 million more on the books of their project cap space, going up to 25 million.

Zucarello - ??? - Kaprizov (RFA)
Boldy - Eriksson-Ek - Fiala (RFA)
Greenway - Frost - Foligno
Sturm - Rask - Hartman

Brodin - Sprugeon
Suter - Addison
Soucy - Menell (?)

???
Kahkonen

+ Boldy (.880 million)
+ Frost (.863 million)
+ Addison (.795 million)

That's 2.5 million for the three of them, putting the cap down to 22.462 million

Kaprizov signs for 4/8 million per
Fiala signs for 4/7 million per

That's now 7.462 million to sign a goalie and a center

You're giving Dumba away because of the expansion draft and then Parise and Suter are waiving for the expansion draft? WTF are you doing?

 

[Digitalbooya]

There's no doubt that Ek would put up better numbers if he had a bigger role on the PP, but that doesn't mean it would be good for the team. Personally I don't really see Ek's skillset be that useful or effective on the PP, and the additional points he would personally get from those minutes could mean a worse PP and less points for the team.

What Wild needs is a top offensive centre who makes the PP click, and let Ek do his thing elsewhere where his skillset shines. If you post 20-20 ES statlines and get positive results playing hardest minutes on the team, that's great.

I would just like to know why every excuse in the book is used for why Eriksson Ek can’t be an offensive guy when it’s never been given a legit shot? I mean they had Victor Rask on PP1 and Bonino PP2 this year. No way Eriksson Ek is worse than either of those two. He is capable, he just needs to be given a shot.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Victor 'I whiff on handling passes' Rask - 1st line center

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Happy 4th everyone. We’ve got a good community going now the Bazeek is back. Here’s to more 1st round losses… (cheers)

 

[57special]

Just concocted this deal that might be an abomination, but I'm just not sure for who. It REALLY depends on how the league views a buyout of Parise by another team vis a vis the Cap Recapture penalty for us, and how much ARI wants to save money. W/o further ado;

Parise(4 x 7.5M), Rask(1 x 4M), + #25oa for Schmaltz(5x 5.825M).

- actual cash payout for Schmaltz is 34M over 5 years, or greater than the AAV.
- actual cash payout for the Wild players is 14M total, down to even less if they buy out Parise(this year 6.6M, next year2.6M) and /or Rask(2.6M) out, saving them at least 20M in actual cash.
- ARI gets a 1st that they've reportedly been craving, after having theirs taken away.
- We get a still young, middle six C, who is sort of the opposite of JEE. Would fill a need, for sure.
- We would win the AAV battle, lose (big time) on the actual cash payout.
- Would parise waive if he was told he would be bought out after a year, if he wishes?

Would prefer Dvorak, but am not sure that he would be available.

 

[Bazeek]

Just concocted this deal that might be an abomination, but I'm just not sure for who. It REALLY depends on how the league views a buyout of Parise by another team vis a vis the Cap Recapture penalty for us, and how much ARI wants to save money. W/o further ado;

Parise(4 x 7.5M), Rask(1 x 4M), + #25oa for Schmaltz(5x 5.825M).

- actual cash payout for Schmaltz is 34M over 5 years, or greater than the AAV.
- actual cash payout for the Wild players is 14M total, down to even less if they buy out Parise(this year 6.6M, next year2.6M) and /or Rask(2.6M) out, saving them at least 20M in actual cash.
- ARI gets a 1st that they've reportedly been craving, after having theirs taken away.
- We get a still young, middle six C, who is sort of the opposite of JEE. Would fill a need, for sure.
- We would win the AAV battle, lose (big time) on the actual cash payout.
- Would parise waive if he was told he would be bought out after a year, if he wishes?

Would prefer Dvorak, but am not sure that he would be available.

One thing to bear in mind with the Parise scenarios: going by the Marleau trade, the going rate to buy out one year of a $6.25m cap hit was a 1st round pick. I can't remember what the cost for Carolina was in actual dollars, but if Arizona wanted to do roughly the same thing for each of the next 4 years (the worst part of Parise's buyout) they might be able to buy themselves 3-4 1st round picks.

The real-money angle is the interesting part though, because that side of things is largely a mystery to us. I think even the best case scenario has us paying more to dump Parise and Rask and get an NHL caliber player out of it, even if Schmaltz contract isn't great... but I'd be pretty open minded about what else it'd cost.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I worry about the price at this point and Danault wouldn't be my first choice, but I agree. I get that he and Ek are both defensive centers and that Danault can't shoot to save his life, but if you watch him play he's a different player than Ek is. He's better with the puck and plays more of a finesse game. Defensively he relies more on a good stick, where Ek relies more on strength and athleticism. He's not the ideal player to put between Kaprizov and Zuccarello, but if you think that Rossi will be that player long term I think Danault makes a good place-holder. I think he'd compliment those two better than Ek would.

I still prefer the trade route, but the options aren't jumping out at me there either. Maybe someone with 1 year left that doesn't cost a ton and you wouldn't mind letting walk is the play at this point. If Rossi does step up big maybe all you need is that stopgap.

If hypothetically Danault was already signed to an "expensive" contract, like 6 more years at $6m per, and he could be acquired for a 1st and a 3rd, plus Parise, would you do it?

I would do that without a second thought.

Which is how I would look at dumping Parise for a 1st and a 3rd to Detroit or somebody else for a buyout, and beating the market for Danault this summer.

 

[Bazeek]

If hypothetically Danault was already signed to an "expensive" contract, like 6 more years at $6m per, and he could be acquired for a 1st and a 3rd, plus Parise, would you do it?

I would do that without a second thought.

Which is how I would look at dumping Parise for a 1st and a 3rd to Detroit or somebody else for a buyout, and beating the market for Danault this summer.

I would, though I do think it'll cost more than many of us (including myself) are thinking to dump Parise that cleanly. At least going by previous dead-cap trades.

 

[57special]

Seems to me that if Fiala is going to be part of a deal for Eichel, then BUF would probably rather do the deal themselves, not have MN do the deal. Usually teams like to construct their own. Could cause Guerin to drag his feet a bit on closing on a contract - if Fiala has even been someone that has been discussed.

 

[Al Lagoon]

Perfect storm of factors work against the Wild here.

Lets face it, when Fletch made a grab for Parise and Suter it looked awesome at the time, but the NHL pulled the rug from under them. How they can punish these contracts ex post facto is beyond me, but the Wild are stuck with it. I'm no lawyer, but when you declare something illegal/punishable, it can't apply to deals done before such declaration.

Throw in 2 ridiculously generous expansion deals and the storm is complete.

The Wild are ridiculously top-heavy contract wise, especially with no-movement anchors in the face of expansion not once but twice. The chickens are coming home to roost when difference-makers like Fiala and Kaprizov need to be be paid.

Leipold gets a nice payday though, so rather than blame the GMs, I blame him and his lot.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Anyone interested in pitching Tampa an offer for Cirelli? Tampa currently has $86.6m tied into 19 players going into next season. Something has to give on their end and they have 10 of those players with some form of NMC, NTC, or m-NTC. The notables without trade protection: Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. Could be a buy low with picks/prospects situation.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Anyone interested in pitching Tampa an offer for Cirelli? Tampa currently has $86.6m tied into 19 players going into next season. Something has to give on their end and they have 10 of those players with some form of NMC, NTC, or m-NTC. The notables without trade protection: Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. Could be a buy low with picks/prospects situation.

Guerin will give a call. Menell and Khovanov could be attractive to Tampa.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Anyone interested in pitching Tampa an offer for Cirelli? Tampa currently has $86.6m tied into 19 players going into next season. Something has to give on their end and they have 10 of those players with some form of NMC, NTC, or m-NTC. The notables without trade protection: Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. Could be a buy low with picks/prospects situation.

Yes, but if we’re not sending contracts back then it’d prospects and I’d rather not go that route. Don’t think he’s the guy Tampa’s moving, either.

 

[Mnsportsfan22]

Anyone interested in pitching Tampa an offer for Cirelli? Tampa currently has $86.6m tied into 19 players going into next season. Something has to give on their end and they have 10 of those players with some form of NMC, NTC, or m-NTC. The notables without trade protection: Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. Could be a buy low with picks/prospects situation.

I was always curious how it would work with the expansion draft if a team had say 5 defenseman or 8 forwards with a no move clause? Is Tampa in that position?

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Yes, but if we’re not sending contracts back then it’d prospects and I’d rather not go that route. Don’t think he’s the guy Tampa’s moving, either.

Tampa's situation is going to be way too difficult until we know what happens in expansion with that roster, but I think they'll do everything in their power to make a deal with Seattle to take extra salary from them, but Tampa doesn't have a ton in the pipeline in terms of picks and prospects to make the worth Seattle's time. I think they'd rather lose Gourde expansion and then do everything they can move Johnson or McDonagh's contract. Or both. They have to sign Point next summer after all.

I think @KaprizovSaveUs is right about them not wanting to move Cirelli. But Cirelli is hard to figure out. He had a bad regular season, including 1 point in the final 23 games of the season. He's been far better in the playoffs, on the top PP unit with Killorn out and has been much better playing with Stamkos. Where would we slot him in? Fiala-Cirelli-Boldy and keep the Ek line intact?

Guerin will give a call. Menell and Khovanov could be attractive to Tampa.

If he can be had, I think he's worth a shot depending on the price but us making moves without sending cap back is going to be tough. Not sure how Khovanov is appealing to them, but Menell could be something. Nowhere near enough though.