Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLV

[BigT2002]

Looking at the UFA's, there is a whole lot of age in those Center's this offseason lol

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Bazeek]

Looking at the UFA's, there is a whole lot of age in those Center's this offseason lol

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

One name on that list that has seen almost zero discussion here is also the guy that Guerin apparently tried to acquire at the trade deadline: Stepan. Not sure how I feel about that one even as Plan F. He's had a rough ride since leaving New York and it wouldn't surprise me if he took a cheap deal to play Victor Rask for a year and rebuild some interest for next summer.

 

[GuerinUp]

One name on that list that has seen almost zero discussion here is also the guy that Guerin apparently tried to acquire at the trade deadline: Stepan. Not sure how I feel about that one even as Plan F. He's had a rough ride since leaving New York and it wouldn't surprise me if he took a cheap deal to play Victor Rask for a year and rebuild some interest for next summer.

Hes literally statistically like the worst guy in FA, Id be pissed if we signed him. 2% shooting?!

 

[thestonedkoala]

I'm curious about Wennberg. Didn't have too terrible a season, though he shoots left.

 

[Bazeek]

Hes literally statistically like the worst guy in FA, Id be pissed if we signed him. 2% shooting?!

Yeah I don't get the interest either, nor do I understand Ottawa apparently holding out for more than whatever Guerin was offering. But if they can't swing a trade they like and end up cap-strapped in free agency, you'd kind of expect them to circle back around to him.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I think Guerin would offer a fair, if not more than fair, deal. He might’ve already. I think we could see a trade during the SCF, but this just won’t happen right now. Buff will want as many teams in the bidding as possible.

I agree they will want a big bidding war, I also believe the insider who stated he thinks it will be done sooner rather than later considering the acquiring team doesn’t to have him miss part of the season.

 

[57special]

One name on that list that has seen almost zero discussion here is also the guy that Guerin apparently tried to acquire at the trade deadline: Stepan. Not sure how I feel about that one even as Plan F. He's had a rough ride since leaving New York and it wouldn't surprise me if he took a cheap deal to play Victor Rask for a year and rebuild some interest for next summer.

Read my mind. Thought he was older than 31. At this point signing him would definitely be dumpster diving, but I think he might sign for a really low amount in order to be back here. That's the only way I could see him being signed.
He was never fast, and at this point might be very slow. Would be kind of odd for Guerin to be signing a guy like him, after chasing off players like Staal and Koivu.

Unless Guerin plans to sit, buy out, or trade Rask then I don't see the point of acquiring Stepan. We've got Rask, Sturm, and Hartman who can play bottom six C, and players like Dewar and maybe Shaw are due for a look. I am not sure that either of those two are NHL'ers, but they have some speed and youth on their side, at least.

 

[Bazeek]

Read my mind. Thought he was older than 31. At this point signing him would definitely be dumpster diving, but I think he might sign for a really low amount in order to be back here. That's the only way I could see him being signed.
He was never fast, and at this point might be very slow. Would be kind of odd for Guerin to be signing a guy like him, after chasing off players like Staal and Koivu.

Unless Guerin plans to sit, buy out, or trade Rask then I don't see the point of acquiring Stepan. We've got Rask, Sturm, and Hartman who can play bottom six C, and players like Dewar and maybe Shaw are due for a look. I am not sure that either of those two are NHL'ers, but they have some speed and youth on their side, at least.

It'd really require the pro scouts to have seen something beyond his stats from the last year or so, which have been pretty grim. I won't pretend I've actually watched him play a game in a while now, though.

 

[thestonedkoala]

The more I read, the more I want to grab Alexander Wennberg as a stop gap. Apparently he played well in Florida and played up and down the lineup. In a pinch, he could be a top line center, but he's more of a middle-6 guy.

 

[AKL]

Alex Wennberg? The guy that was chased out of Columbus because he was so bad, and then scored marginally better than Rask while playing four minutes more per night and more than doubling his own career shooting percentage, and isn't over 50% on faceoffs either?

Sure, how could that go wrong.

 

[grN1g]

Alex Wennberg? The guy that was chased out of Columbus because he was so bad, and then scored marginally better than Rask while playing four minutes more per night and more than doubling his own career shooting percentage, and isn't over 50% on faceoffs either?

Sure, how could that go wrong.

But Reinhart makes all the sense in the world as a winger and 38% faceoff percentage.

Ohh boyyyy

 

[AKL]

But Reinhart makes all the sense in the world as a winger and 38% faceoff percentage.

Ohh boyyyy

Reinhart isn't my first choice either, but at the very least he's a capable 50-60 right handed top 6 player. Alex Wennberg is not close to that.

 

[MNNumbers]

Has anyone ever thought of this:

We spend hours a day discussing possibilities. I wonder if the actual brass of the team spend this much time?

To be honest, I doubt it.

That's the problem with hockey. It's an old boys network, and the guys who run the teams aren't really thinking about all the possibilities. Same old, same old...

In a situation like this, if BG is actually thinking about his job, there has got to be a good trade available that would really help this club. Some guy who is undervalued by his own team, but would improve the team just a little bit. If you can get one or two of those every year, it will be good.

 

[57special]

Has anyone ever thought of this:

We spend hours a day discussing possibilities. I wonder if the actual brass of the team spend this much time?

To be honest, I doubt it.

That's the problem with hockey. It's an old boys network, and the guys who run the teams aren't really thinking about all the possibilities. Same old, same old...

In a situation like this, if BG is actually thinking about his job, there has got to be a good trade available that would really help this club. Some guy who is undervalued by his own team, but would improve the team just a little bit. If you can get one or two of those every year, it will be good.

The odds are really, really, really good that the Wild management spend more, and better time on their roster than we do. Just like we probably all do our jobs better than the Wild management would do ours.

The difference between us and them is that they are probably in the top 30 or so in the world at what they do. I can pretty comfortably say that I am not in the top 30 in my field...maybe top 3 Million, and even that might be a stretch.

 

[MNNumbers]

The odds are really, really, really good that the Wild management spend more, and better time on their roster than we do. Just like we probably all do our jobs better than the Wild management would do ours.

The difference between us and them is that they are probably in the top 30 or so in the world at what they do. I can pretty comfortably say that I am not in the top 30 in my field...maybe top 3 Million, and even that might be a stretch.

I wish I could believe that. I really do. But I can't, for the life of me, see how someone signs a 4M/yr contract with Rask last year, for example. Or, a 7 year contract with Spurgeon for 7.6M/yr at his age. Or, all the NMCs given out. There are reasons GMs are fired, and one is they aren't as good as they should be at their jobs.

I really think this industry is still moving on 'feel' more than on data, because every sports industry has been slower than they should have on that. And, hockey in particular is difficult to quantize. But, the present situation reminds me of baseball 20 years ago or so.

Whoever is among the first to think closely and years ahead on things like salary cap, is going to do well for their team.

 

[AKL]

I wish I could believe that. I really do. But I can't, for the life of me, see how someone signs a 4M/yr contract with Rask last year, for example. Or, a 7 year contract with Spurgeon for 7.6M/yr at his age. Or, all the NMCs given out. There are reasons GMs are fired, and one is they aren't as good as they should be at their jobs.

I really think this industry is still moving on 'feel' more than on data, because every sports industry has been slower than they should have on that. And, hockey in particular is difficult to quantize. But, the present situation reminds me of baseball 20 years ago or so.

Whoever is among the first to think closely and years ahead on things like salary cap, is going to do well for their team.

GMs have guys that work on the salary cap, they have pro scouts, they have amateur scouts.

So does Bill Guerin spend 40 hours per week thinking about who he could acquire as a center? Probably not. But is it someone's job to do the research, bring him their findings, and help him to understand the pros and cons of each option? Yes. Does Guerin then spend some time thinking about it himself? Yes. Is Bill Guerin aware of who most of these guys are at at least a base level? Yes.

And it's worth noting that just because these guys have these jobs, doesn't mean they're the top "30 or so" in the world at it. That's why the narrative that it's an old boys network exists. Guerin didn't take an aptitude test to determine he was a top 32 GM. He played in the league, made friends in high places, got hired as an assistant GM because of those friends, and then got his opportunity with the Wild.

 

[123TripleDoge]

Has anyone ever thought of this:

We spend hours a day discussing possibilities. I wonder if the actual brass of the team spend this much time?

To be honest, I doubt it.

That's the problem with hockey. It's an old boys network, and the guys who run the teams aren't really thinking about all the possibilities. Same old, same old...

In a situation like this, if BG is actually thinking about his job, there has got to be a good trade available that would really help this club. Some guy who is undervalued by his own team, but would improve the team just a little bit. If you can get one or two of those every year, it will be good.

Does there?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Does there?

Other teams seem to find them.

 

[MNNumbers]

GMs have guys that work on the salary cap, they have pro scouts, they have amateur scouts.

So does Bill Guerin spend 40 hours per week thinking about who he could acquire as a center? Probably not. But is it someone's job to do the research, bring him their findings, and help him to understand the pros and cons of each option? Yes. Does Guerin then spend some time thinking about it himself? Yes. Is Bill Guerin aware of who most of these guys are at at least a base level? Yes.

And it's worth noting that just because these guys have these jobs, doesn't mean they're the top "30 or so" in the world at it. That's why the narrative that it's an old boys network exists. Guerin didn't take an aptitude test to determine he was a top 32 GM. He played in the league, made friends in high places, got hired as an assistant GM because of those friends, and then got his opportunity with the Wild.

Your last paragraph is exactly my point. The guy who actually makes the decisions is just a "I have all the connections because of my time in the league" guy. This is the problem.

I will predict right now that we are going to be very disappointed in the results of this summer.

 

[AKL]

Your last paragraph is exactly my point. The guy who actually makes the decisions is just a "I have all the connections because of my time in the league" guy. This is the problem.

Yeah, definitely. But it's not like Guerin is 100% of the decision making process for anything. So he may be just the guy with the connection and the mouth piece, but other people are bringing him the information for the most part.

Of course, some GM's have guys that they themselves like for whatever reasons, and might make those moves completely autonomously.

I will predict right now that we are going to be very disappointed in the results of this summer.

Yeah, this is a fair prediction. Based on last summer and the team he iced this season, I'm not holding my breath.

 

[GuerinUp]

I wish I could believe that. I really do. But I can't, for the life of me, see how someone signs a 4M/yr contract with Rask last year, for example. Or, a 7 year contract with Spurgeon for 7.6M/yr at his age. Or, all the NMCs given out. There are reasons GMs are fired, and one is they aren't as good as they should be at their jobs.

I really think this industry is still moving on 'feel' more than on data, because every sports industry has been slower than they should have on that. And, hockey in particular is difficult to quantize. But, the present situation reminds me of baseball 20 years ago or so.

Whoever is among the first to think closely and years ahead on things like salary cap, is going to do well for their team.

uhhh rasks contract started 2 years before he got to MN.....

 

[MNNumbers]

uhhh rasks contract started 2 years before he got to MN.....

So, that means the guy traded for him. I still can't figure that out. Same principle.

 

[AKL]

So, that means the guy traded for him. I still can't figure that out. Same principle.

Fenton traded Niederreiter for Rask for the same reasons people here want to try out Alex Wennberg on the top line. Their desperation for someone who plays center. That's actually THE shining example of why you don't force these kinds of things or sign or trade for a guy just because he's "better than what we have now".

 

[MNNumbers]

My comment in the whole matter is not really about Geurin in particular. It's about the whole industry. There is no good rational that 'players who have been in the league know hockey and therefore will make good GMs.' Yet, just like coaches, they get recycled continually.

The whole thing seems foolish, really. But, it's the way it's done. Arizona had a good idea when they hired Chayka, but they just went too far the other way.

 

[Bazeek]

So, that means the guy traded for him. I still can't figure that out. Same principle.

Rask for Nino and Fiala for Granlund are two sides of the same coin. Fenton didn't seem to have much time for analytics and a "data driven" GM probably doesn't make either of those trades. If he's had much of a hand in what Florida's been up to this year I still take that over guys like Chayka and Dubas.

My big hope with Guerin is that he's got the charisma to attract good people and proceeds to actually listen to those people.