Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIV

[BigT2002]

Parise isn’t going to be on the roster next year. The question is, how much of his money will be off the books. I think we could find a team that would trade for his deal if we added significant futures. There were teams that didn’t even want to get to the cap floor this year that are hurting from Covid. Having his AAV much higher than actual money would help those teams (even if the money isn’t super low yet) The question will be if the price in futures is worth it.

and, even if Parise was on the team, we could make it work with the cap. You can’t be paying bottom 6 guys millions of dollars, but the teams that win often aren’t.

You also can't be paying 4 D-men $6M+ a year either:

2021-22 Season
Suter - $7.57M
Spurgeon - $7.53M
Brodin - $6M
Dumba - $6M

No other team in the NHL has that. And that doesn't include Ian Cole/Soucy probably combining for $5M as your 5/6 pairings.

Even this year, the Wild are #1 for defensive salary and #17 for Forwards. It'll have to shift eventually (and sadly) soon. Just as others have said 1C's are the hardest to find and that defensive centers are a dime a dozen, so are #4 defensemen. But in noway is Parise's salary the absolute reason (I didn't say it isn't either) the Wild are in cap hell with resigning players. It is largely having to pay elite defensive players to bail out lackluster goalies year in and year out. It felt like this year was finally a year where they didn't need to have an elite blue line because both goalies were actually competent. What I believe that Parise's salary is doing is merely restricting the team from signing a marquee Free Agent. Other teams are eating high contracts as well right now. Dustin Brown is still getting a paycheck....and I have no doubt that the Blackhawks are gonna regret the Toews resigning in 2 years, if they don't already.

7.5 is going to look like minimal compared to the ones that are $8.5M+ that will flounder soon.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Thought experiment. If Talbot has a really good playoff, do you expose him so you can keep Soucy? While my first instinct is to say no, because G's are really important, but Talbot is hitting his mid 30's, and has never been an elite starting goaltender. Odds are he will come back down to earth next year, and certainly the year after that. Are we better off keeping the younger Soucy? I suspect that FA goalies would be attracted to playing here because of the quality and structure of the team, and we could find another Talbot.

I'm not sure what one has to do with the other. Using your lineup, I'd protect:

7F: Eichel, Zuccarello(NMC), Parise(NMC), Fiala, Eriksson Ek, Foligno, Greenway
Expose: Sturm, Hartman, Rask

3D: Suter(NMC), Spurgeon(NMC), Brodin(NMC)
Expose: Soucy, Menell

1G: Kahkonen
Expose: Talbot

So I wouldn't be protecting either of Soucy or Talbot. It'd be up to Seattle to determine who they want.

 

[MuckOG]

Other teams are eating high contracts as well right now. Dustin Brown is still getting a paycheck....and I have no doubt that the Blackhawks are gonna regret the Toews resigning in 2 years, if they don't already.

7.5 is going to look like minimal compared to the ones that are $8.5M+ that will flounder soon.

The Sabres still have 6 years of Jeff Skinner at $9 million to look forward to. The Sharks have 6 more years of Karlsson at $11.5 million AAV. Both with full NMC for the duration.

 

[BigT2002]

I'm not sure what one has to do with the other. Using your lineup, I'd protect:

7F: Eichel, Zuccarello(NMC), Parise(NMC), Fiala, Eriksson Ek, Foligno, Greenway
Expose: Sturm, Hartman, Rask

3D: Suter(NMC), Spurgeon(NMC), Brodin(NMC)
Expose: Soucy, Menell

1G: Kahkonen
Expose: Talbot

So I wouldn't be protecting either of Soucy or Talbot. It'd be up to Seattle to determine who they want.

I still have a feeling Parise waives his NMC and just finishes out his career in Seattle or the Isles from a trade where the Wild retain 50% or higher of the caphit. He'll want to play, regardless of where it is at for the last 3 years of the contract and hang it up afterwards.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I still have a feeling Parise waives his NMC and just finishes out his career in Seattle or the Isles from a trade where the Wild retain 50% or higher of the caphit. He'll want to play, regardless of where it is at for the last 3 years of the contract and hang it up afterwards.

To be fair, it's not like he is blocking anyone super important from being protected. I could see it going either way.

 

[BigT2002]

The Sabres still have 6 years of Jeff Skinner at $9 million to look forward to. The Sharks have 6 more years of Karlsson at $11.5 million AAV. Both with full NMC for the duration.

Exactly. One contract at 7.5M isn't going to put a team in cap woes...there are other reasons for it. Largely two things:

1) Aging players (your team is largely non-ELC or RFA contracts)
2) Signing Marquee players to inflated contracts where the backend is going to burn you if the cap doesn't increase by 10% every year (i.e. probably this year because of COVID...but new TV deal too..)

There are some absolutely AWFUL contracts out there that make Parise's a blip on the radar nowadays. Even if he only pots in 10 goals a year and is a 30 point player...that is still better than many of these. Hell Drew Doughty is getting $11M for quite a few more years and has put up about roughly the same numbers as Suter. $4.5M MORE than Suter....

 

[BigT2002]

To be fair, it's not like he is blocking anyone super important from being protected. I could see it going either way.

If he was willing to do it at the trade deadline last year, I'd feel pretty confident he would do it this offseason knowing Geurin isn't going to try and screw him.

 

[57special]

You also can't be paying 4 D-men $6M+ a year either:

2021-22 Season
Suter - $7.57M
Spurgeon - $7.53M
Brodin - $6M
Dumba - $6M

No other team in the NHL has that. And that doesn't include Ian Cole/Soucy probably combining for $5M as your 5/6 pairings.

Even this year, the Wild are #1 for defensive salary and #17 for Forwards.

SJS is paying their top 3 26.5M /yr, but i take your point. Once Cole and his 4M+ salary is gone, it will bring down the overall D cap hit a bit.

 

[GuerinUp]

To be fair, it's not like he is blocking anyone super important from being protected. I could see it going either way.

ya.... just dumba....

 

[57special]

I'm not sure what one has to do with the other. Using your lineup, I'd protect:

7F: Eichel, Zuccarello(NMC), Parise(NMC), Fiala, Eriksson Ek, Foligno, Greenway
Expose: Sturm, Hartman, Rask

3D: Suter(NMC), Spurgeon(NMC), Brodin(NMC)
Expose: Soucy, Menell

1G: Kahkonen
Expose: Talbot

So I wouldn't be protecting either of Soucy or Talbot. It'd be up to Seattle to determine who they want.

The assumption being that Talbot would be more desirable than Soucy if he has a playoffs that looks anything like his last game. Because of the expansion rules, middle of the road Dmen like Soucy are easier to find that middle of the road forwards, but I don't know how many goalies in top form and with a good contract will be around.

 

[Webster]

I still have a feeling Parise waives his NMC and just finishes out his career in Seattle or the Isles from a trade where the Wild retain 50% or higher of the caphit. He'll want to play, regardless of where it is at for the last 3 years of the contract and hang it up afterwards.

Disagree. Parise is 36, he doesn't want to put his family on the move now. New home, new school for his kids, not worth it. I believe he stays with the Wild and will retire in a couple of years. Wild can of course buy him out sooner, but that wouldn't be so smart cap wise.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Disagree. Parise is 36, he doesn't want to put his family on the move now. New home, new school for his kids, not worth it. I believe he stays with the Wild and will retire in a couple of years. Wild can of course buy him out sooner, but that wouldn't be so smart cap wise.

Not as much of a prideful player as we all might’ve thought then. A shame.

 

[MuckOG]

Disagree. Parise is 36, he doesn't want to put his family on the move now. New home, new school for his kids, not worth it. I believe he stays with the Wild and will retire in a couple of years. Wild can of course buy him out sooner, but that wouldn't be so smart cap wise.

If he's content with being a healthy scratch every game and just collecting a pay check, then there isn't anything that can be done. But if he wants to play, he's going to have to waive his NMC.

 

[Digitalbooya]

ya.... just dumba....

How exactly is Parise blocking the Wild from protecting Dumba?

The assumption being that Talbot would be more desirable than Soucy if he has a playoffs that looks anything like his last game. Because of the expansion rules, middle of the road Dmen like Soucy are easier to find that middle of the road forwards, but I don't know how many goalies in top form and with a good contract will be around.

But you also pretty much nailed why they should like Soucy better than Talbot in your previous post. Personally, I think Talbot has a much bigger impact than Soucy does. Kahkonen's play was extremely questionable to end the season.

 

[GuerinUp]

How exactly is Parise blocking the Wild from protecting Dumba?

because you cant go 4-4 unless he waives....

 

[Digitalbooya]

because you cant go 4-4 unless him or suter waive....

Explain.

 

[GuerinUp]

Explain.

i edited it because it cant be suter. we have 3 players with nmc on defense, so the only way to protect dumba is to either have one of those 3 waive (which would have to be suter if you dont want them taken) or go 4-4

problem with going 4-4 is you have parise and zucc with nmc as well, meaning you can only protect 2 extra players that are forwards being fiala and ek. meaning youre exposing greenway....

if parise waives. problem solved.

 

[MNNumbers]

If Suter waves, then you protect Spurge, Brodin, Soucy for D, you trade Dumba, and you protect 7 Fs. If, by some miracle, the Dumba trade includes an extra special forward, then your 7 Fs are Zucc, Parise (not waived), Fiala, Ek, Greenway, Foligno, and the new guy.

Who Seattle takes in this scenario is anyone's guess, because the goalie unprotected is probably the best player. Hartman and Sturm are the best Fs available.

But I don't expect Suter to waive.

If Parise waives, then you trade Dumba if you can get something for him (Dumba + Fiala + drafts <> a healthy Eichel ???), and you still protect 7-3-1, except now Hartman gets protected as well (in Parise's spot).

And, likely Soucy or the unprotected goalie gets chosen.

Question: What if you don't protect a goalie? Can you protect someone else instead?

 

[MNNumbers]

i edited it because it cant be suter. we have 3 players with nmc on defense, so the only way to protect dumba is to either have one of those 3 waive (which would have to be suter if you dont want them taken) or go 4-4

problem with going 4-4 is you have parise and zucc with nmc as well, meaning you can only protect 2 extra players that are forwards being fiala and ek. meaning youre exposing greenway....

if parise waives. problem solved.

How? 4-4-1 and protect Greenway?

 

[Digitalbooya]

i edited it because it cant be suter. we have 3 players with nmc on defense, so the only way to protect dumba is to either have one of those 3 waive (which would have to be suter if you dont want them taken) or go 4-4

problem with going 4-4 is you have parise and zucc with nmc as well, meaning you can only protect 2 extra players that are forwards being fiala and ek. meaning youre exposing greenway....

if parise waives. problem solved.

I'd rather go 7-3-1 to protect the Ek, Foligno and Greenway line and trade Dumba for futures. That line is a difference maker.

 

[Webster]

If he's content with being a healthy scratch every game and just collecting a pay check, then there isn't anything that can be done. But if he wants to play, he's going to have to waive his NMC.

I don't think that's important to him anymore, and not if he has to put the family on his back and leave the state. But I do think he's strong mentally, I believe he's going to put up a fight against management if necessary.

But I really hope they can all come to senses, this situation is ridiculous. The way Guerin handles this matter disappoints me, not exactly class. They should agree on some kind of a deal, let him play 7-8 minutes a game, and he'll cut a couple of years on his contract. A good solution.

 

[Bazeek]

New thread.