Toronto Maple Leafs - 2022 Entry Draft - 5th Rd Pick (135th OA) - Nikita Grebenkin/Grebyonkin (LW)

[nuck]

Did anyone have him on a list? One person? Anywhere?

CS had him 51st for Euros so he was at least seen

 

[uncleben]

CS had him 51st for Euros so he was at least seen

I maintain a list of aggregate rankings - I average out rankings over the season, and then sort them accordingly. He was 299th on my list with an average of 204.625.
There were 601 players on the list.
20 players drafted today were not on the list at all

Means jack shit, haha, but I had at least heard of him!

 

[Prominence]

The Anti-Nick Robertson
Nick Robertson is short, but fierce. He shoots the puck. If you like Nick Robertson, you will hate Nikita Grebyonkin. Nick Robertson is the opposite of Nikita Grebyonkin.

Spoiler: Brief Synopsis on Methodology

Optimistic Case: I saw two games of Grebyonkin. The first was BAD and he was playing too careful. If you want the notes, it will be included in the other spoiler and it's disorganized because it is probably useless analysis as his game is much better. Keep in mind the game analyzed in the spoiler was from september and against what would be the 2nd best regular season team in the conference. What you see outside the spoiler the most optimistic case and what I suspect to be more reliable on what Grebyonkin's actual game is.

Sampling: I chose his highest scoring game to see what his absolute potential is.

Spoiler: Scouting Notes on September Game against Chaika

Sampling: I chose this game because it's against the 2nd best team in the division and he played a decent amount of time (19 toi). It is however one of the first 5 games of the season. I think he was on the 2nd line.

Role: Does get pp time. Used on the bumper or the half-wall on the pp.
- deployed offensively: mainly offensive zone starts



Scoring chance. Actually a pretty good shot.


Wins board battle with skill, but notice how the opposing defender isn't big or engaging him physically at all. This will change at nhl/khl level.

Attributes:
- lacksadaisical in d zone. works a lot harder in offensive zone than defensive zone. He's a roamer in the defensive zone. I see more engagement from veeti miettinen who is like 5'9 playing a harder league and miettinen isn't even average in terms of physicality in the first place.

âï¸ Confusing engagement

21 seconds · Clipped by Marco Struelle · Original video "10.09.2021. «Чайка» â «СÑалÑнÑе ÐиÑÑ» | (ÐаÑимаÑÑ ÐХР21/22) â ÐÑÑÐ¼Ð°Ñ ÑÑанÑлÑÑиÑ" by ÐÐ¥Ð

youtube.com

- if i was grebyonkin, I would help the defender out by doubling the guy with the puck to win possession.

- it feels like he plays at 70% effort: there is no intensity to his game.
- not physical. At all.
- puck control seems off. Doesn't have a strong stick to hold onto pucks when a defender is in front of him.
- relies on his positioning and skill to win board battles, but is easily outmuscled. Sounds bad, but if he gets stronger, he'll get heavier and since his positioning is fine, leafs may have predicted that his board play will get significantly better. If not, oh boy.
- I do not like his mobility. When he gets turned around, he doesn't recover fast
- his straight line is just okay. His skating is average.
- pretty decent passer. He makes the right pass most of the time. When he has space and time, good things happen. ( Win board battle with skill and smart pass)

Role: Offensive deployment. Plays as the F2 (2nd forward) where he receives the puck and makes the play. He doesn't really shoot even though I think he has a pretty good shot. Typical play-maker. Drives the offense on his line. He is on the same team as Danila Yurov, but I don't think he plays on the same line.

Defensively: He is not used defensively at all. He mainly receives offensive zone starts. He does not PK. He covers the point, but mostly roams around.

His skating is pretty good. It's night and day compared to the beginning of the season.

âï¸ A pass, shot, some skate work

40 seconds · Clipped by Marco Struelle · Original video "22.01.2022. «СÑалÑнÑе ÐиÑÑ» â «ÐелÑе Ðедведи» | (ÐаÑимаÑÑ ÐХР21/22) â ÐÑÑÐ¼Ð°Ñ ÑÑанÑлÑÑиÑ" by ÐÐ¥Ð

youtube.com

The Good
- His shots are mostly drives to the front of the net, therefore high danger scoring opportunities. He does not like shooting
- When he does shoot, his shot is pretty good
#1: Goal
#2: Breakaway
- Predominantly a passer and a pretty good one, makes the right decision most of the time.
- Good stickhandling. He showcases this a lot when trying to maintain possession
#1: Stick handling and skill
- Really strong offensive instincts

The Bad
- No display of physicality. He prefers to win board battles with his stick and position. I feel like you need physical strength on top of skill and positioning to win board battles at the NHL level
- No intensity to his game. He will never be an F1 like Hyman or Mikheyev. There are multiple instances where he is puck watching when he could be helping his teammate poke the puck or steal possession
- Could use more training on his edgework and balance
- Could be a lot stronger. Sounds cliched, but watching him in the mhl, at his size, he should be imposing physically. In the game against Chaika, whenever a Chaika player got in his face, Grebyonkin found it difficult to create anything.
- Could use more deception in his game. If he's not going to be physical, he could create more room with fakes or execute transitions. He's not really the primary guy who carries the puck into the offensive zone. His transition game can develop into Spezza's however. It's odd because leafs typically draft guys who are great at transitions (koster, knies, Amirov, Niemela, Tverberg etc).

tl;dr
Nikita Grebyonkin is a finesse pass-first forward. He is a very good playmaker and play driver with good offensive IQ. His defensive and physical game will need to improve drastically. In terms of prospect rankings, he is behind Ovechkinov for Ovechkinov just has more tools, intangibles and a higher floor. He is similar to SDA. I read some comparison to Mikheyev. No. Just no. I have at least 15 prospects ahead of him.

 

[Duke16]

He seems to have draftable tools for sure, but the downfall of a pick like this probably will just end up being the Development path if he's bouncing around below the KHL level until he's 22 year old or so.

Would be nice if TOR could outline their own Development plan a bit better when making these types of picks or ensure their is some type of favorable one outlined (ie. They know the player is going to the CHL or they will let him test NA Pro hockey at the same time line as a CHL player would)

 

[JeromeHP]

He was 46th on our list at HockeyProspect.com, a solid pick by the Leafs. The full profile is available in our Black Book but here's a paragraph about his skating.

It starts with his technical skating mechanics. Simply put, Nikita has some of the best inside and outside edges available in this class. He was the only player we viewed this season, who threw a defender off balance with over three feet of space between them. That hopefully gives you a sense of how fast he can pivot and force weight shifts out of opposing players. His edgework is compounded by an efficient and fluid skating base that’s mechanically sound; although at times he does lack top end power in straight lines. He makes up for a lack of explosive power with split second off center evasiveness, coordinated linear crossovers, and exaggerated postural side steps that help evade incoming pressure through the neutral zone. As he hits the offensive line, he can incorporate attack skating by manipulating the opposing defenses' pivoting base, and he can spin on a dime, losing his man in the process. This made him an incredibly effective zone entry machine, as well as causing fits for opposing defenseman and goalies down low around the goal line. He forces goalies to constantly shift laterally and work in and out of their reverse VH position, as well as forcing positional switches between the opposing center and defense. His skating allows him to drain teams rapidly while maintaining possession.

 

[Morgs]

Here's a guy I fully didn't expect to be picked so I didn't do any tracking on him. I had only listed a couple OA's, and he was a guy I had on my "player to watch" section because of the reported big skill tool, but his production was not on the level of an OA guy that made me interested enough to spend time doing more homework.

Really don't have any information on him that you can't find with a simple google search. Would have preferred a guy like Salin, Karabela, or obviously Grudinin if we're talking about guys who went after in the 5th. I'll hold out hope, but guys that track like him rarely, if ever, become something. Man now seeing Petrovsky in the 6th makes me even more upset.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Here's a guy I fully didn't expect to be picked so I didn't do any tracking on him. I had only listed a couple OA's, and he was a guy I had on my "player to watch" section because of the reported big skill tool, but his production was not on the level of an OA guy that made me interested enough to spend time doing more homework.

Really don't have any information on him that you can't find with a simple google search. Would have preferred a guy like Salin, Karabela, or obviously Grudinin if we're talking about guys who went after in the 5th. I'll hold out hope, but guys that track like him rarely, if ever, become something. Man now seeing Petrovsky in the 6th makes me even more upset.

Absolutely agree.

I really don't understand the Leafs strategy when it comes to Russians. They seem to be trusting their scouts and some really surface level analytics without basic context, and as a result we just have a bunch of late round Russians who are at the very bottom of our pool and we would be lucky if they even come close to the NHL. If we exclude Abramov and SDA, who were drafted out of the CHL, Ovchinnikov is our best bet for a Russian turning out right now and he is a borderline top 25 prospect in our pool.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

5 points in 8 games in the KHL so far as a teenager. Was this guy just a late bloomer possibly?

 

[Prominence]

5 points in 8 games in the KHL so far as a teenager. Was this guy just a late bloomer possibly?

It’s moreso that Amur is such a bad team that grebyonkin is playing top six minutes and when players have opportunity, they tend to score more. Something that russian hockey doesn’t understand, which is why their development is in the gutters. I haven’t seen him this year, but it’s a good surprise.

Looking through pick224 stats, grebyonkin drastically outperformed ovchinnikov in his d+1 year. I may post my findings on the marlies thread.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Tracking well.

Really didn't see this type of season coming from him so quickly.

 

[Recipe Unlimited]

What does he have to do to be top 5 in our prospect pool? Or is he already there?

 

[Isaac Nootin]

What does he have to do to be top 5 in our prospect pool? Or is he already there?

I'd like to see sustained success for the rest of the year and into next year, but he's certainly made a massive jump from someone who was barely on the radar to begin the year.

 

[darrylsittler27]

A player that only plays when he feels like it? Hope not.

Lol we only wish we could draft a bum like Bure.

 

[Prominence]

I'd like to see sustained success for the rest of the year and into next year, but he's certainly made a massive jump from someone who was barely on the radar to begin the year.

Definitely.

Next year will be interesting. If he goes back to his old team, i expect regression for his point totals as i doubt they will give him the same amount of playing time that amur gave him. Oddly, i would prefer it if he stayed in amur and was given top six minutes. I don’t think russia develops their prospects at all.

 

[ULF_55]

3rd. on his team, but I believe 2nd. in PPG.
How old before his teammates are UFA?

 

[ULF_55]

He is supposed to be a very fast player

So let's hope he is the next Pavel Bure no pressure

At his size, maybe he's the next Kreider?

 

[rocketman588]

It’s moreso that Amur is such a bad team that grebyonkin is playing top six minutes and when players have opportunity, they tend to score more. Something that russian hockey doesn’t understand, which is why their development is in the gutters. I haven’t seen him this year, but it’s a good surprise.

Looking through pick224 stats, grebyonkin drastically outperformed ovchinnikov in his d+1 year. I may post my findings on the marlies thread.

What so skating kids into the ground 24/7 instead of having them play isn't the key to success you say?

I'm glad he's getting mins tho

 

[Anthrax442]

Its Grebyonkin. In Russian alphabet theres a letter ё That is pronounced Yo. But in some situations they write E instead, just out of either laziness or whatever. The Yo is implied and its not a problem for Russian speakers. Same with Kulyomin (Kulemin), Kovalyov (Kovalev)

 

[ULF_55]

The Anti-Nick Robertson
Nick Robertson is short, but fierce. He shoots the puck. If you like Nick Robertson, you will hate Nikita Grebyonkin. Nick Robertson is the opposite of Nikita Grebyonkin.

Spoiler: Brief Synopsis on Methodology

Optimistic Case: I saw two games of Grebyonkin. The first was BAD and he was playing too careful. If you want the notes, it will be included in the other spoiler and it's disorganized because it is probably useless analysis as his game is much better. Keep in mind the game analyzed in the spoiler was from september and against what would be the 2nd best regular season team in the conference. What you see outside the spoiler the most optimistic case and what I suspect to be more reliable on what Grebyonkin's actual game is.

Sampling: I chose his highest scoring game to see what his absolute potential is.

Spoiler: Scouting Notes on September Game against Chaika

Sampling: I chose this game because it's against the 2nd best team in the division and he played a decent amount of time (19 toi). It is however one of the first 5 games of the season. I think he was on the 2nd line.

Role: Does get pp time. Used on the bumper or the half-wall on the pp.
- deployed offensively: mainly offensive zone starts



Scoring chance. Actually a pretty good shot.


Wins board battle with skill, but notice how the opposing defender isn't big or engaging him physically at all. This will change at nhl/khl level.

Attributes:
- lacksadaisical in d zone. works a lot harder in offensive zone than defensive zone. He's a roamer in the defensive zone. I see more engagement from veeti miettinen who is like 5'9 playing a harder league and miettinen isn't even average in terms of physicality in the first place.

âï¸ Confusing engagement

21 seconds · Clipped by Marco Struelle · Original video "10.09.2021. «Чайка» â «СÑалÑнÑе ÐиÑÑ» | (ÐаÑимаÑÑ ÐХР21/22) â ÐÑÑÐ¼Ð°Ñ ÑÑанÑлÑÑиÑ" by ÐÐ¥Ð

youtube.com

- if i was grebyonkin, I would help the defender out by doubling the guy with the puck to win possession.

- it feels like he plays at 70% effort: there is no intensity to his game.
- not physical. At all.
- puck control seems off. Doesn't have a strong stick to hold onto pucks when a defender is in front of him.
- relies on his positioning and skill to win board battles, but is easily outmuscled. Sounds bad, but if he gets stronger, he'll get heavier and since his positioning is fine, leafs may have predicted that his board play will get significantly better. If not, oh boy.
- I do not like his mobility. When he gets turned around, he doesn't recover fast
- his straight line is just okay. His skating is average.
- pretty decent passer. He makes the right pass most of the time. When he has space and time, good things happen. ( Win board battle with skill and smart pass)

Role: Offensive deployment. Plays as the F2 (2nd forward) where he receives the puck and makes the play. He doesn't really shoot even though I think he has a pretty good shot. Typical play-maker. Drives the offense on his line. He is on the same team as Danila Yurov, but I don't think he plays on the same line.

Defensively: He is not used defensively at all. He mainly receives offensive zone starts. He does not PK. He covers the point, but mostly roams around.

His skating is pretty good. It's night and day compared to the beginning of the season.

âï¸ A pass, shot, some skate work

40 seconds · Clipped by Marco Struelle · Original video "22.01.2022. «СÑалÑнÑе ÐиÑÑ» â «ÐелÑе Ðедведи» | (ÐаÑимаÑÑ ÐХР21/22) â ÐÑÑÐ¼Ð°Ñ ÑÑанÑлÑÑиÑ" by ÐÐ¥Ð

youtube.com

The Good
- His shots are mostly drives to the front of the net, therefore high danger scoring opportunities. He does not like shooting
- When he does shoot, his shot is pretty good
#1: Goal
#2: Breakaway
- Predominantly a passer and a pretty good one, makes the right decision most of the time.
- Good stickhandling. He showcases this a lot when trying to maintain possession
#1: Stick handling and skill
- Really strong offensive instincts

The Bad
- No display of physicality. He prefers to win board battles with his stick and position. I feel like you need physical strength on top of skill and positioning to win board battles at the NHL level
- No intensity to his game. He will never be an F1 like Hyman or Mikheyev. There are multiple instances where he is puck watching when he could be helping his teammate poke the puck or steal possession
- Could use more training on his edgework and balance
- Could be a lot stronger. Sounds cliched, but watching him in the mhl, at his size, he should be imposing physically. In the game against Chaika, whenever a Chaika player got in his face, Grebyonkin found it difficult to create anything.
- Could use more deception in his game. If he's not going to be physical, he could create more room with fakes or execute transitions. He's not really the primary guy who carries the puck into the offensive zone. His transition game can develop into Spezza's however. It's odd because leafs typically draft guys who are great at transitions (koster, knies, Amirov, Niemela, Tverberg etc).

tl;dr
Nikita Grebyonkin is a finesse pass-first forward. He is a very good playmaker and play driver with good offensive IQ. His defensive and physical game will need to improve drastically. In terms of prospect rankings, he is behind Ovechkinov for Ovechkinov just has more tools, intangibles and a higher floor. He is similar to SDA. I read some comparison to Mikheyev. No. Just no. I have at least 15 prospects ahead of him.

So have you seen any evolution since writing this?

Physical characteristics would indicate potential to add 15-20 lbs?

Shoots left, plays right?

Be nice to get him to the Marlies in a couple years.

 

[Hogan86]

Has good size, and those are solid stats for a 19 year old playing on a KHL team tied for 4th last in the league.

Totally random, but if you hit up that hockeydb page for Amur HC player stats, look at their goaltender. It's ridiculous. 1.97 GAA, .939 save % and a losing record of 16-17-4. That almost makes no sense, but it bodes well for Grebyenkin that he is putting numbers up on a team that clearly cant score goals.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[ULF_55]

Has the wheels, but maybe the competition just isn't that good?

How can you not like this pick?

 

[Anthrax442]

Definitely will be a couple of years before we know for sure.

 

[kb]

So have you seen any evolution since writing this?

Physical characteristics would indicate potential to add 15-20 lbs?

Shoots left, plays right?

Be nice to get him to the Marlies in a couple years.

IMO, this kinda sounds like someone looking to appear knowledgeable by bashing a pick they knew nothing about off of watching a couple of youtube clips.

 

[ULF_55]

IMO, this kinda sounds like someone looking to appear knowledgeable by bashing a pick they knew nothing about off of watching a couple of youtube clips.

Don't know.

From everything we've seen for several months, we should be excited. He can only excel against the opposition he faces.

As I have to tell my wife all the time, I can't make that decision without evidence ... and of course I get "you always take that view ..."

I just usually think someone has a slant and won't tell you the whole story.

Where is Paul Harvey when you need him?