Confirmed with Link: Tom Wilson re-signs 2years 2 mil AAV

[artilector]

In general, I'm all for seeing Wilson, Vrana, Connolly, Bura get ice-time with Kuznetsov (chemistry check!), but understandably it's hard to break up lines that are working.

As far as Wilson, he's been unlucky both with mismanaged development, the Caps loading up on RW with Oshie & Williams, and also now with the Caps (apparently) finally shifting away from Trotz's "heavy game" preference.

Theoretically, if Oshie and/or Williams leave, I can see Wilson doing well with Kuz -- just not sure that he'd be a better fit there than others. I think Connolly has already bypassed him in terms of general offensive fit/potential.

Maybe next year, if Oshie & Williams leave, and Trotz wants to keep Bura-Eller-Connolly together, the stars will align for Wilson to get top-6 time -- that'll be his chance.

IMO, to maximize his effectiveness, Wilson ultimately needs to be on a line where physicality will be a significant part of the line's identity. Otherwise, what's the point of having him try to win out a spot based on skill alone... But I'm not sure I see a line like that in the Caps' top-9, the way things are shaping up. In a way, the one semi-logical potential top-9 linemate for Wilson is Ovi, at least if they both get unleashed to go hit defensemen...

I like Wilson, but it's not easy to find a fit for him at this point.

 

[Hivemind]

How many chances does Wilson get? He's been given shots in the top six in each of the past few seasons, and hasn't been able to hang on to them.

 

[artilector]

How many chances does Wilson get? He's been given shots in the top six in each of the past few seasons, and hasn't been able to hang on to them.

In truth, I can barely recall those "shots". It seems like he's had almost single digit shifts with Kuz, and done pretty well in those. He's looked no worse with Ovi & Backstrom than pretty much any other player except for Oshie -- and getting bypassed by Oshie is not in itself an indicator of Wilson's lack of ability.

 

[Hivemind]

In truth, I can barely recall those "shots". It seems like he's had almost single digit shifts with Kuz, and done pretty well in those. He's looked no worse with Ovi & Backstrom than pretty much any other player except for Oshie -- and getting bypassed by Oshie is not in itself an indicator of Wilson's lack of ability.

He's been given chances repeatedly on a line with Backstrom and Ovechkin in each of the past few seasons. In 2014-15 he actually spent more time on that line than any other right winger on the team (and four times as much time on that line that any other). That experiment eventually ended with Wilson getting benched then scratched because "too many pucks are dying with Tom right now". He also got a shot in the top six earlier this year when Williams was struggling. He spent games on both the Backstrom line and the Kuznetsov line.

Wilson simply hasn't shown any reason to keep him in the top six in any of the chances he's received. He can skate with them, but at no point has he shown enough offensive instincts to be a legitimate threat in a top six role.

 

[CapsSkins]

I believe Wilson can build his game and evolve into a Ward or Knuble type, but it won't happen this season. On this year's team he's best suited for the 4th line + PK duty.

 

[Corby78]

I believe Wilson can build his game and evolve into a Ward or Knuble type, but it won't happen this season. On this year's team he's best suited for the 4th line + PK duty.

My thought he could turn into a Ward or Knuble vanished last year. Its not happening.

 

[artilector]

He's been given chances repeatedly on a line with Backstrom and Ovechkin in each of the past few seasons. In 2014-15 he actually spent more time on that line than any other right winger on the team (and four times as much time on that line that any other). That experiment eventually ended with Wilson getting benched then scratched because "too many pucks are dying with Tom right now". He also got a shot in the top six earlier this year when Williams was struggling. He spent games on both the Backstrom line and the Kuznetsov line.

Wilson simply hasn't shown any reason to keep him in the top six in any of the chances he's received. He can skate with them, but at no point has he shown enough offensive instincts to be a legitimate threat in a top six role.

Come on, the 2014-15 season, really? With Ovi & Backstrom, where so many RW experiments have underperformed?

After the arrival of Oshie and Williams, Wilson IMO simply hasn't gotten enough meaningful looks. Ovi & Backstrom have made a lot of RWs look mediocre at times, and Kuz himself has struggled until recently. The fact that Wilson did not do much there in limited shifts does not tell us much about his current top-6 ability/potential, IMO. We also have not seen him in the top-6 at all in what seems to be Trotz offense 2.0 -- where he may have more opportunity to cause productive chaos.

Look, I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate here. I'm not sure if Wilson has real top-6 potential, or that the Caps must wait for it -- I just don't think we can definitively say that he doesn't.

 

[Efactor]

My thought he could turn into a Ward or Knuble vanished last year. Its not happening.

This. He is a 3+7=10 guy for life. He can randomly make a skilled play but so did Peat. Let's get real and make sure we protect Beagle in the expansion draft.

 

[RandyHolt]

He is 22. Maybe patience is running thin, and expectations high. And time running out in this window.

Good points Art. Few can hang on our top line and we cannot use that to grade Willy who was only 20 years old and working on skating and defense for Barry. Oshie can hang, because he busts his tail and does everything well no matter who his linemates are. For all the time Willy got on our top line, it wasn't a consistent thing we saw in practice for several weeks or a month, 1RW was a revolving door of failure. As Ovi tried to score off the rush, hit.... and only racked up what, 11 ES assists?

Ovi is a tough egg to hang with and you know it. Now that Barry has adjusted his offense to one trying to score as a priority, it's time to see Wilson upstairs being presidential once again. But lets try something different this time, him far away from Ovi. With expansion looming, maybe at the back end of our 5 goal wins we can give him some time. Use it for our final decision re: expansion.

Willy has untapped potential, and we do see flashes. Peat never did what we saw last game. He had 2 career assists. When did Knuble bust out again? I still say Willy scoring 7 goals last year is nothing to scoff at in the giant goalie era.

 

[txpd]

I see no sign that patience is wearing thin with Tom Wilson. In fact I think patience is what is at play. Trotz will easily scratch a guy to reset a struggling or underperforming player. It has happened with Burt in each of his three seasons. It has happened to Wilson in the past. It has not happened this season and I don't think I have heard Trotz express anything but pleasure with regard to him(maybe he was included in calling out players for penalties at one point).

I think MacLellan and Trotz see regular and steady improvement in his game. He is about the best protector in the league now. He has on numerous occasions blow up the star player on the other team and more than fighting shows that messing with our players means getting Wilson to lock on to your best players. Clearly Trotz has no qualms about putting Wilson on the ice against those players.

Edit: At 22 you have lost confidence that he could become a Ward or Knuble like player. Think about that for a sec. Ward had his break out season at 28 years old. Knuble didn't have his breakout offensive season until he was 30 and after having played 6 NHL seasons in the league.

 

[RandyHolt]

Patience is not running thin with Trotz. He and Brian love him, look no further than his contract. It's posters.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Who cares about chances? He's 22 and has a positive impact overall. If Wilson was a 15g guy today we'd be in a tougher spot roster-wise, so I'm fine with him slowly percolating until we re-evaluate after next season.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He is 22. Maybe patience is running thin, and expectations high. And time running out in this window.

Good points Art. Few can hang on our top line and we cannot use that to grade Willy who was only 20 years old and working on skating and defense for Barry. Oshie can hang, because he busts his tail and does everything well no matter who his linemates are. For all the time Willy got on our top line, it wasn't a consistent thing we saw in practice for several weeks or a month, 1RW was a revolving door of failure. As Ovi tried to score off the rush, hit.... and only racked up what, 11 ES assists?

Ovi is a tough egg to hang with and you know it. Now that Barry has adjusted his offense to one trying to score as a priority, it's time to see Wilson upstairs being presidential once again. But lets try something different this time, him far away from Ovi. With expansion looming, maybe at the back end of our 5 goal wins we can give him some time. Use it for our final decision re: expansion.

Willy has untapped potential, and we do see flashes. Peat never did what we saw last game. He had 2 career assists. When did Knuble bust out again? I still say Willy scoring 7 goals last year is nothing to scoff at in the giant goalie era.

I must say those "flashes" are pretty rare and I'm a supporter. I feel at its best his contribution will be as a pure shooter. He just doesn't have the handle to be more creative IMO. We'll see if a few stick handling camps in the summer can help him. . Put it on net and crash the net would be my marching orders for him.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Anyone who isn't seeing consistent improvement by Wilson in every aspect of his game is just seeing what they want to see.

 

[Corby78]

I don't hate Wilson, I love what he brings. He is physical, and plays the PK. But he is the least offensive capable player on the team outside of Alzner and the goalies. And if were talking about cap room for next year, I think we could find a cheap replacement for well under 2m and not miss much.

Now when it comes to what he will become, I really hoped he would develop into a top 6 guy, but I'm not seeing it. A flash every 10 games or so is not giving me hope. People mentioned Ward/Knuble blowing up late. But Knuble went 15-20 his 3rd year in the league. (first year he played 9 games) Ward put up 17-28 his first year. You can say its because they both were seasoned in the minors, but they also put up points in the minors. Its not like they came up as grinders and all of a sudden figured out how to score.

All I'm saying is if we can keep him great, but if we need to move cap space, I'm not willing to lose a JW or TJ so we can spend a couple more years seeing if he gets it. Especially since what I'm seeing isn't giving me much confidence the offensive game is coming.

 

[Corby78]

Anyone who isn't seeing consistent improvement by Wilson in every aspect of his game is just seeing what they want to see.

On the defensive side I would agree with you. And I think he is becoming a smarter hockey player as well. I'm just not seeing the offensive capability many here (including me) felt would develop.

 

[txpd]

On the defensive side I would agree with you. And I think he is becoming a smarter hockey player as well. I'm just not seeing the offensive capability many here (including me) felt would develop.

I think that it develops slower for some players. Typically so for players of his size and style of game. I think its fair to say that his line has produced with regularity and a higher rate than the typical 4th line. I think its fair to consider that he is contributing a far amount to that while not always getting the points to go with it.

 

[Corby78]

I think that it develops slower for some players. Typically so for players of his size and style of game. I think its fair to say that his line has produced with regularity and a higher rate than the typical 4th line. I think its fair to consider that he is contributing a far amount to that while not always getting the points to go with it.

As a fourth line player I love him. To me right now he is a great great fourth line guys, and a slightly below average third line guy. So as we sit, I love what he is doing. I'm not a pro scout, nor am I in the lockeroom or at practice. So this is JMO.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

The thing with Wilson is that he's been constantly improving, but just so slooowly. The way he's been playing for us lately is pretty good, but I think he could do even better by going to the net for dirty goals.

 

[Hivemind]

Come on, the 2014-15 season, really? With Ovi & Backstrom, where so many RW experiments have underperformed?

After the arrival of Oshie and Williams, Wilson IMO simply hasn't gotten enough meaningful looks. Ovi & Backstrom have made a lot of RWs look mediocre at times, and Kuz himself has struggled until recently. The fact that Wilson did not do much there in limited shifts does not tell us much about his current top-6 ability/potential, IMO. We also have not seen him in the top-6 at all in what seems to be Trotz offense 2.0 -- where he may have more opportunity to cause productive chaos.

Look, I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate here. I'm not sure if Wilson has real top-6 potential, or that the Caps must wait for it -- I just don't think we can definitively say that he doesn't.

Yes, 2014-15. And 2015-16. And 2016-17. He's been given repeated shots.

What RW have "failed" next to Ovie and Backstrom? Mike Knuble was terrific. Alex Semin was great. Marcus Johansson wasn't an ideal fit, but he wasn't wholesale terrible there, either (his worst time on the 1st line was when Oates had Ovie at RW and MoJo playing with a stick curve he wasn't comfortable with). Oshie is obviously working out pretty well now. The only RWs that have failed have been when grinders get miscast there (Wilson, Beagle, Crabb).

I'm not saying Wilson will never develop an offensive game, but that he's shown no signs of one yet. And it's not for a lack of looks. He's been given chances, and simply hasn't performed. I don't know of any other player that this fan base has repeatedly given this much slack on for an offensive development. Nobody kept demanding top six looks for Matt Pettinger or Dave Steckel or Boyd Gordon or any other early draft pick that turned out to be a better fit in the bottom six.

Could Wilson turn into a Knuble or Ward-type player? Sure thing. But both of those guys didn't find their groove until their late 20s/early 30s. Just like Knuble and Ward, if it takes Wilson that long to develop and offensive game, he'll likely be part of a different franchise by then. It doesn't make sense to keep overpaying for potential that long.

 

[Brian23]

I still think Wilson has shown the flashes of offensive play, enough to not shut the door on it ever happening. Personally, I'd be fine if he developed into a consistent 3rd line player but I do think he can play with someone like Kuzya, or Backstrom if he's away from Ovechkin. I think his passing is severly under-rated, his puck skills are pretty poor, and his hands are pretty average, but I think if you actually gave him a shot with someone like Kuzya (when he's playing like he is now) he'd be able to put up some points. Not enough, currently, to warrant pushing anyone out but enough to say "yeah, this guy belongs."

And again, he is only 22. Most guys aren't making it to the NHL till now. I do think you gotta hit him for the fact he's been here for awhile, but I think one can argue being here so early put a damper on his development instead of helping it from the get go. Same thing with Burakovsky to an extent.

 

[RandyHolt]

Willy had a hand in the first goal today battling at the far blue, and just lost out on an assist as a Hab briefly got the puck before we got it back. A lot of what he does is not going to be pretty at this point in his career, playing with grinders.

I am convinced Trotz loves him. But not as much as McPhee.

 

[txpd]

The thing with Wilson is that he's been constantly improving, but just so slooowly. The way he's been playing for us lately is pretty good, but I think he could do even better by going to the net for dirty goals.

I think if you watch him you will find that he is often either behind the goal lines because he is first in with a hit or in a puck battle or he is the 3rd man high which is where he was when he created the Kuzy goal the other night.

I think the dirty goals will come in time.

 

[MrGone]

I don't think he has to worry about Connolly. I feel Connolly already played himself off the team. He will get a better on another team next season.

 

[RandyHolt]

Hive or someone make a list of 1RWs for Ovi and Nick who have gotten time there, and seized control of the job. Post Knuble, PreOshie - 3 years. Presumed lost the job from injury, or trade, or walked as a free agent.

I will then try to make a list of 1RWs, that failed. I will include Willy in there.

Before Knuble, it didn't matter who Ovi's RW was. He didn't need chemistry with a RW nor coordinated line rushes to dominate the league.