Speculation: This Summer: What If NONE of the Top 4 FA's is Signed?

leeroggy

Registered User
Jan 3, 2010
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Just wanted to get this started as a placeholder.

Right now, according to CapFriendly we have 14 and 2 IR roster players under contract for next year at a combined hit of about $ 48 million, Ladd and Hickey on IR and we have Beau and Dal Colle as RFA's on top of that:

Ladd $5,500,000 IR
Bailey $5,000,000
Clutterbuck $3,500,000
Cizikas $3,350,000
Komarov $3,000,000
Martin $2,500,000
Johnston $1,000,000
Barzal $863,333

Boychuck $6,000,000
Leddy $5,500,000
Hickey $2,500,000
Pulock $2,000,000
Pelech $1,600,000
Mayfield $1,450,000
Toews $700,000

Greiss $3,333,333

What makes this summer so strange is the trade-off between how much we improved in the standings while most of us think that without an upgrade on our natural goal scoring that can fit into Trotz's system we are probably limited on how far we can go in the playoffs playing 2-1 games all the time.

Lehner
Lee
Nelson
Eberle

It seems like the last 3 are struggling right now and are hurting their FA contract worth and if the team loses in the 1st round they could maybe be cheaper to sign than we thought 2 months ago, but they are ALL at a point where we know what we are getting if re-signed. There's no more upside likely in production.

So, let's start the discussions here at some point about how we might look like. Cap should probably go up a few million more next year.

Pros:

The defense looks set already for next season at a very affordable rate and if we get a surprise in Training Camp we could have an ability to deal from strength.

The defensive system will be fully in place going into the summer so we don't have a learning curve there.

It looks like a deep draft so we'll likely have a decent shot at a player who can help down the line. But our growing depth in the system means we could possibly move up if a player we really like starts to fall.

Cons:

Goal scoring is a problem even if we adjust for the way we are now a defense-first team. Very few of the players currently can create their own scoring chances. And in the system we really don't have much of that, even if we count Ho-Sang.

2C is still a massive void and with Barzal's faceoff percentage we need the 2C to help out Cizikas on that.

*****

As we get further into the season and the playoff push maybe some of these decisions starts to solve themselves. God forbid we go on a losing streak and slip out of the playoffs but that would likely make some of these decisions on re-signing players pretty easy.
 

ndgolden

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Jan 9, 2009
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Lee seems to have tailed off quite badly lately. Even though he looks a more complete player than before he seems to have lost his scoring touch and net presence..

If you are watching the games, Lee is the only player who will fully engage in net front battles. The current PP is designed to pull Lee away from the front of the net drawing 4 defenders in a box around him, thus opening up shooting lanes for Eberle and Nelson. The Isles have gone away from getting pucks to the net to looking for the perfect shot when the team is void of natural snipers.
 
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seafoam

Soft Shock
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May 17, 2011
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Lee seems to have tailed off quite badly lately. Even though he looks a more complete player than before he seems to have lost his scoring touch and net presence..

Hopefully that means his price tag will go down. I’m really hoping for a high AAV, five year term. They have the cap space and the cap is only going to go up.

When the team acquires help in the top six, Lee’s numbers will increase. He’s not a creator of offense, but he does well playing with linemates who can get good scoring chances.
 
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ndgolden

Registered User
Jan 9, 2009
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Re-sign Filppula, sign other UFAs and/make trades.

Agree on Filppula, making significant trades when you are top 5 in the league could be viewed as a knee jerk reaction. The structure of the trots game is going have a huge impact on scoring, but is designed to keep the team in the game regardless of who they are playing every night. No other system when lacking the personnel would be as successful. This off-season would be the time for some major moves but again the Islanders are 3 years away from being a top 5 consideration for UFA's
 
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Lek

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Nov 25, 2006
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Lee seems to have tailed off quite badly lately. Even though he looks a more complete player than before he seems to have lost his scoring touch and net presence..

Lee does not have anyone on that line to really feed the net. Beau should move to that line...Ebs to line 1 and MDC to three....or ebs and lee to line one, and bails and beau to line two....some kind of tinkering should be done.
 

Chapin Landvogt

Registered User
Jul 4, 2002
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Lee seems to have tailed off quite badly lately. Even though he looks a more complete player than before he seems to have lost his scoring touch and net presence..

At the current rate, Lee will be hard-pressed to score 25 goals this season.

Overall, we may not have even one 65-point player.
 

PK Cronin

Bailey Fan Club Prez
Feb 11, 2013
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Hopefully that means his price tag will go down. I’m really hoping for a high AAV, five year term. They have the cap space and the cap is only going to go up.

When the team acquires help in the top six, Lee’s numbers will increase. He’s not a creator of offense, but he does well playing with linemates who can get good scoring chances.

I hope the same thing. It's evidence that he isn't a perennial 40 goal guy and is completely dependent upon someone getting him the puck in order to score. Hopefully he realizes that he, and the team, will be better off if he leaves some money on the table. Wishful thinking though.
 

SI90

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Jul 25, 2011
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Is it? Lee hasn't been playing all that well lately imo

I mean Key as in if they re-sign him for a ridiculous amount then we won’t have the space to go after one of the top guys.

If Lee is re-signed and the deal is a good one then we’ll still have room to add a Stone or Duchene potentially.
 
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Thrasymachus

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Jul 1, 2018
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I mean Key as in if they re-sign him for a ridiculous amount than we won’t have the space to go after one of the top guys.

If Lee is re-signed and the deal is a good one then we’ll still have room to add a Stone or Duchene potentially.
Ah I got ya.

I don't mind keeping Lee, but he is looking more and more like a 3rd line winger to me
 

SI90

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Jul 25, 2011
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Ah I got ya.

I don't mind keeping Lee, but he is looking more and more like a 3rd line winger to me

I would LOVE to keep Lee and have him remain our captain. I just don’t think his style of play is conducive to today’s NHL where you can pencil him in for 30+ goals a year.

Love him. But there’s other talents I would pay before him.
 
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GrandmaSlices51631

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Dec 12, 2013
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There are a few good players that are flying under the radar, it is going to be a full on bidding war for Karlsson, Panarin, Stone & Duchene, now while I'm not suggesting we avoid participating, maybe they should explore other options (over Nelson/Eberle) capable of middle-6 duties.

Joonas Donskoi - 57GP 14G 16A , 2 years younger then Eberle, currently being paid under 2 million a season, more playoff experience (looked great in San Jose 2016 run) , can probably be signed for 4.5M or less
Ryan Dzingel - 54 GP 21G 20A, 1 year younger then Nelson, currently being paid 2.1 million a season, limited playoff experience, will probably command less then Nelson
 
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Islanders4Cups

Registered User
May 4, 2002
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I would LOVE to keep Lee and have him remain our captain. I just don’t think his style of play is conducive to today’s NHL where you can pencil him in for 30+ goals a year.

Love him. But there’s other talents I would pay before him.

Not sure if there is a story here or not, but I do pencil Lee in as a 30 goal scorer and I wonder if there is a problem. He only has 1 assist in his last 10 games and 9 shots in his last 6 games and you may be challenged to find another time when that has happened

1) is he injured/sick
2) is it starting to eat at him that he is not signed yet.


Hope it is resolved soon as he has not been himself lately.
 

SI90

Registered User
Jul 25, 2011
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Not sure if there is a story here or not, but I do pencil Lee in as a 30 goal scorer and I wonder if there is a problem. He only has 1 assist in his last 10 games and 9 shots in his last 6 games and you may be challenged to find another time when that has happened

1) is he injured/sick
2) is it starting to eat at him that he is not signed yet.


Hope it is resolved soon as he has not been himself lately.

I hope your Pencil has an eraser because he’s not getting 30 this year. Will be lucky if he gets 25
 

Newsworthy

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Jan 28, 2018
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I would sign Lee and let the other three walk. We need as much cap space as we can get. Eberle and Nelson should be dealt at the deadline. Maybe trade Hickey to Calgary. Sbisa is a goner. Go hard for Panarin and aquire KOVYS and Marcus Johansson.
Also let a Flip walk. He's gonna want too much.
 

notDatsyuk

Registered User
Jul 20, 2018
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If you are watching the games, Lee is the only player who will fully engage in net front battles. The current PP is designed to pull Lee away from the front of the net drawing 4 defenders in a box around him, thus opening up shooting lanes for Eberle and Nelson. The Isles have gone away from getting pucks to the net to looking for the perfect shot when the team is void of natural snipers.
If you are talking specifically about the PP, then yes, but Komarov also spends a lot of time battling in the slot. In both cases, we aren't getting enough shots to take full advantage of screens/deflections/rebounds.
 

PK Cronin

Bailey Fan Club Prez
Feb 11, 2013
34,258
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Gotta think the holdup on Ottawa keeping it's 2 stars is bonus money.
I think it was Friedman who wrote Toronto will pay out $50m in bonuses this summer. 60% to Matthews and Tavares.
The new cba needs to curtail bonuses. Maybe limit the number of bonuses a team can give out and have a maximum amount.

I think they should do away with bonuses completely. Divide the total number of money owed to them and have it evenly paid out over the course of their contract. Done.
 

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