Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

[Mach85]

Was said in a less pointed way than it may have come off.

The message is roughly the same though. I'd give it through the end of May before I make any pronouncements one way or the other (for Votto, as well as all three guys mentioned, and including Chris Taylor and Cozart).

Specifically with Smoak, the trends in discipline should be viewed as a positive.

Yeah, I realize a few hits over the next few days can get him more to where we'd want, and the plate discipline improvements point toward sustainable changes. Alonso, for instance, is hitting a lot more groundballs, which can be a decent proxy for swing plane and he's one of the poster boys for the fly ball revolution, so that's one thing that points toward him perhaps returning closer to previous levels. I couldn't see anything similar in Smoak and was curious if you or the others in here who are more accustomed to deeper dives on the numbers have seen anything that could push you one way or another. I'm also bullish on Chris Taylor and think he'll be fine.

The thing with Smoak is...he was a replacement level player for the first 8 years of his career, then had an excellent 3-month stretch in the middle of his 9th season, and was again a replacement-level player for the finals 2 months of the season. And he's 31.

He's certainly not killing us out there and his defense is a plus...and the internal alternative is Mo..so really our best course here is just to stay put and hope for the best.

Absolutely. This team is no stranger to mid-career breakouts. And out of last year's "out of nowhere" vets, I think Smoak is the one that lends the most confidence (other than Pham, but that's a different set of circumstances). At least he's getting on base at a good clip.

 

[BlueForever75]

Why is everyone making it seem like the sky is falling????

So what that Grichuk and Travis are off to bad starts!! Who cares that Smoak is not as far along as he was last season!!!

We are winning, and getting contributions from everywhere around the diamond. If Donaldson and Tulo come back soon and start contributing. We are in for a very good summer. Our lineup doesnt have everyone contributing at a respectable pace. But one thing is for certain players under achieving are not contributing to losses . So let it be, they will come around

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[BlueForever75]

I like this lineup. I personally would have started Maile tonight and Martin tomorrow against Sale

 

[ShaneFalco]

Nice having some bats off the bench too

 

[Suntouchable13]

I like this lineup. I personally would have started Maile tonight and Martin tomorrow against Sale

To be fair, it probably won't make much difference who starts against Sale lol.

 

[BlueForever75]

I think we are sweeping the Red Sox this series

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Yeah, I realize a few hits over the next few days can get him more to where we'd want, and the plate discipline improvements point toward sustainable changes. Alonso, for instance, is hitting a lot more groundballs, which can be a decent proxy for swing plane and he's one of the poster boys for the fly ball revolution, so that's one thing that points toward him perhaps returning closer to previous levels. I couldn't see anything similar in Smoak and was curious if you or the others in here who are more accustomed to deeper dives on the numbers have seen anything that could push you one way or another. I'm also bullish on Chris Taylor and think he'll be fine.

Understood. And mah, no real red flags from a quick glance with Smoak. Perhaps a few too many ground balls. But still, a little too much noise throughout given the sample size. I buy into him over Alonso and Morrison (though I think Morrison will be better as the year goes on).

Agreed on Taylor as well. Another guy is (Yung) Scooter Gennett. He'll be fine as well. Perhaps less HR's, but still a high average and 15-18 taters.

Why is everyone making it seem like the sky is falling????

Who is acting like the sky is falling????

 

[The Nemesis]

In slightly under 23 innings Yennsy Diaz has only given up four hits. If he continues he will get promoted to Dunedin very quickly.

Clemens could get a quick promotion too.

Clemens is one of my super ultra waaay too dark darkhorse prospects. Like there's still a 90% chance he becomes nothing of note in the grand scheme of things, but there are bits and pieces of his game I like to be able to push him up the ranks if he can avoid hitting a plateau along the way. His power is predictably trending up as he's gotten away from the HR black hole of Nat Bailey Stadium in Vancouver, and he shows good discipline and a good approach at the plate. If it all goes well for him, maybe he's Lyle Overbay. And that's not half bad.

What are your thoughts on Joey Votto?

Joey Votto is a baseball-playing automaton crafted in a lab hidden underneath a Tim Hortons in Etobicoke. His job is to use baseball as a means to understand the human condition and improve AI skills at coordinated acts of physics so that it may be amalgamated into the singularity once Skynet takes control.

I wasn't aware there were any other thoughts on Joey Votto.

 

[Nineteen67]

Clemens is one of my super ultra waaay too dark darkhorse prospects. Like there's still a 90% chance he becomes nothing of note in the grand scheme of things, but there are bits and pieces of his game I like to be able to push him up the ranks if he can avoid hitting a plateau along the way. His power is predictably trending up as he's gotten away from the HR black hole of Nat Bailey Stadium in Vancouver, and he shows good discipline and a good approach at the plate. If it all goes well for him, maybe he's Lyle Overbay. And that's not half bad.



Joey Votto is a baseball-playing automaton crafted in a lab hidden underneath a Tim Hortons in Etobicoke. His job is to use baseball as a means to understand the human condition and improve AI skills at coordinated acts of physics so that it may be amalgamated into the singularity once Skynet takes control.

I wasn't aware there were any other thoughts on Joey Votto.

What are your thoughts on Manfred’s comments about Skydome and Skydome’s owners?

I thought they were spot on.

 

[The Nemesis]

What are your thoughts on Manfred’s comments about Skydome and Skydome’s owners?

I thought they were spot on.

I never saw them when they were first presented. I've only read stuff after the fact. I agree that the dome needs an overhaul and update because it does seem to be incredibly dated now (It is one of the oldest non-legacy stadiums left in the league, as far as I can remember), but I question how well they're going to be able to achieve any kind of meaningful updates given the bones they're working with. From what I've seen (full disclosure: I've never been to a game there as I've never been to Toronto) it kind of looks like a concrete monstrosity similar to other 80s built stadiums I've seen and it can be hard to shake that sort of feeling because the medium limits your renovation possibilities.

I do disagree with his statement that a big need is more premium seating. Given how much the Jays fanbase fluctuates based on team performance, and the general feeling that the upscale audience that would use premium seating would likely be the first to turn to other events as the prestige of a baseball game falls off (relative to, say, TFC or the Raptors right now) I question the value of all that premium seating. Look at YAnkee stadium. Even in the last series, the majority of the stadium was pretty filled up, but the premium area looked largely dead because there's going to be some lag between the Yankees' performance picking back up starting last season and into this one and people trickling in to fill the seats.

I'm not sure what was said about ownership though. I don't recall reading anything on the topic.

 

[Longshot]

I like this lineup. I personally would have started Maile tonight and Martin tomorrow against Sale

Maile usually catches Estrada. Or at least that's how it's been early in the season.

 

[Nineteen67]

I never saw them when they were first presented. I've only read stuff after the fact. I agree that the dome needs an overhaul and update because it does seem to be incredibly dated now (It is one of the oldest non-legacy stadiums left in the league, as far as I can remember), but I question how well they're going to be able to achieve any kind of meaningful updates given the bones they're working with. From what I've seen (full disclosure: I've never been to a game there as I've never been to Toronto) it kind of looks like a concrete monstrosity similar to other 80s built stadiums I've seen and it can be hard to shake that sort of feeling because the medium limits your renovation possibilities.

I do disagree with his statement that a big need is more premium seating. Given how much the Jays fanbase fluctuates based on team performance, and the general feeling that the upscale audience that would use premium seating would likely be the first to turn to other events as the prestige of a baseball game falls off (relative to, say, TFC or the Raptors right now) I question the value of all that premium seating. Look at YAnkee stadium. Even in the last series, the majority of the stadium was pretty filled up, but the premium area looked largely dead because there's going to be some lag between the Yankees' performance picking back up starting last season and into this one and people trickling in to fill the seats.

I'm not sure what was said about ownership though. I don't recall reading anything on the topic.

He criticized Rogers for not advertising the FB MLB live games and said they should be thankful that they don’t lose any revenue from US national broadcasted games like every other franchise.

 

[The Nemesis]

Top 22 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays | FanGraphs Baseball

Fangraphs has the Blue Jays top 22 prospects up now, a day after it seemed like they skipped over Toronto to start doing the AL Central.

All in all, I'm good with this list.

65 FV
Vlad Jr

60 FV
Bichette

55 FV
Alford

50 FV
Jansen
Pearson

45 FV
Borucki
Zeuch
Warmoth

40 FV
Pardihno
McGuire
Reid-Foley
Pannone
Gurriel
Tellez
Urena
Y. Diaz
Taylor
Adams
Maese
Danner
Z. Jackson
Harris



honorable mentions seem like they mention pretty much the entire remaining system

Includes Biggio, Clemens, Palacios, K. Smith, Vicuna, Pentecost.

As always, Fangraphs head writer Carson Cistulli also picks his "guy" as a sub-40 FV with an intriguing statistical profile (usually scrappy contact guys with questionable power or mediocre defensive prowess). His pick is Biggio.


For the most part, I'm pretty OK with that list. There's nothing that strikes me as a galling, awful, random sandbagging/helium ranking.

 

[The Nemesis]

He criticized Rogers for not advertising the FB MLB live games and said they should be thankful that they don’t lose any revenue from US national broadcasted games like every other franchise.

That's dumb. The Blue Jays are in a uniquely bad situation regarding the facebook games given that a) national US availability is of negligible value to them and b) Rogers already provides national Canadian availability via Sportsnet. Regional US team carriers may find it dumb that they're losing a couple of games, but ultimately it's for the trade-off of a broader audience being able to watch the game. Rogers is basically in the position that they were I guess supposed to advertise a competing platform to their own setup that offers zero additional benefit over the existing setup. I don't blame them for not wanting to make a big deal out of telling people to watch the facebook broadcasts.

 

[Dr.Funk]

I do disagree with his statement that a big need is more premium seating. Given how much the Jays fanbase fluctuates based on team performance, and the general feeling that the upscale audience that would use premium seating would likely be the first to turn to other events as the prestige of a baseball game falls off (relative to, say, TFC or the Raptors right now) I question the value of all that premium seating. Look at YAnkee stadium. Even in the last series, the majority of the stadium was pretty filled up, but the premium area looked largely dead because there's going to be some lag between the Yankees' performance picking back up starting last season and into this one and people trickling in to fill the seats.

100% agree with this. More premium seating is the last thing that should be looked at.

 

[Nineteen67]

That's dumb. The Blue Jays are in a uniquely bad situation regarding the facebook games given that a) national US availability is of negligible value to them and b) Rogers already provides national Canadian availability via Sportsnet. Regional US team carriers may find it dumb that they're losing a couple of games, but ultimately it's for the trade-off of a broader audience being able to watch the game. Rogers is basically in the position that they were I guess supposed to advertise a competing platform to their own setup that offers zero additional benefit over the existing setup. I don't blame them for not wanting to make a big deal out of telling people to watch the facebook broadcasts.

Actually, they benefit from the large national games. They never have to give up their regional games and every other team has to give up a few ( I think Manfred May have said as many as 10 for some teams) and yet the Jays get the same piece of the National revenue as the other teams.
Manfred argued FB was designed to help grow the game with younger fans and that the Jays should help in that effort.
Which I tend to agree with.

 

[zeke]

Top 22 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays | FanGraphs Baseball

Fangraphs has the Blue Jays top 22 prospects up now, a day after it seemed like they skipped over Toronto to start doing the AL Central.

All in all, I'm good with this list.

65 FV
Vlad Jr

60 FV
Bichette

55 FV
Alford

50 FV
Jansen
Pearson

45 FV
Borucki
Zeuch
Warmoth

40 FV
Pardihno
McGuire
Reid-Foley
Pannone
Gurriel
Tellez
Urena
Y. Diaz
Taylor
Adams
Maese
Danner
Z. Jackson
Harris



honorable mentions seem like they mention pretty much the entire remaining system

Includes Biggio, Clemens, Palacios, K. Smith, Vicuna, Pentecost.

As always, Fangraphs head writer Carson Cistulli also picks his "guy" as a sub-40 FV with an intriguing statistical profile (usually scrappy contact guys with questionable power or mediocre defensive prowess). His pick is Biggio.


For the most part, I'm pretty OK with that list. There's nothing that strikes me as a galling, awful, random sandbagging/helium ranking.

in general I find on all their lists there's plenty to quibble with in terms of their distinctions between 45s and 40s. And for me plenty of our 40s compare very very wellto, for example, a bunch of 45s on the yanks.

But generally the 50s and up are pretty good.

 

[ShaneFalco]

So when JD returns who goes?

 

[Nineteen67]

So when JD returns who goes?

When does he return?

 

[ShaneFalco]

When does he return?

No official timetable yet but not far off it seems

 

[Nineteen67]

SIAP, but Jays are staying in Dunedin.

From the TB Times

DUNEDIN — The Pinellas County Commission pulled the final trigger Tuesday on dedicating $41.7 million in bed taxes for upgrades to the Toronto Blue Jays’ stadium and spring training facilities, a pledge that amounts to covering more than half of the project.
It is a milestone following years of uncertainty over whether the city could garner the funding to build a state of the art facility to keep the Blue Jays in Dunedin after 40 years.

 

[GoonieFace]

So when JD returns who goes?

Guessing its Gurriel. It would nice if they could launch Morales into the sun, but doubt that happens.

 

[Nineteen67]

No official timetable yet but not far off it seems

If it’s next week -not far off- it could be Travis to get him kick started.
If it’s end of May - not far off - who knows.

 

[Advanced stats]

Enroute to my first Jay's game this year.. unfortunately against Sale, who's had a great start to the year.