OT: The Thread About NaDa Thing 198 The Summer Edition

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tr83

Nope, still embarassed
Oct 14, 2013
14,602
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Jersey Shore
Forgive my financial ignorance, but I have absolutely no idea what points mean. Is this abnormally bad? what's causing it? The stock market is one of those things I know absolutely nothing about somehow.

:popcorn:

The Dow Jones is a conglomeration of 30 companies. This used to be the representation of the market, however since the corporate landscape has changed and the Dow hasn't kept up, it isn't the one in which traders don't compare their results to anymore. That belongs now to the S&P 500, which is an index of 500 companies. This is a better representation of the US corporate landscape. This is what traders compare their results to (the benchmark).

A dollar doesn't represent a point. That's because of the manipulation a company can do to it's stock price: A company can issue (float) more shares, buyback shares, split shares to make the share price more attractive to buyers (instead of 1 share = $50 a company can say 10 shares will = $5).

Think of it as reselling tickets you have for a concert. When you bought the seats, there were only a certain number of seats available to concert goers. The venue could add (float) more seats, remove seats, or say that the band is going to play 20 songs over 5 nights instead of one meaning your two tickets have become ten tickets, but the value is the same.

Because of this manipulation, the share price is divided by a particular number called a divisor. The divisor is a number based upon everything I mentioned in the last paragraph.

TL;DR: Points represent a certain dollar amount.


What's causing the stock market to crash now are a couple of things. Primarily, it's China. China's market crashed a few weeks ago, but this was a result of a lot of Chinese investors borrowing money to gamble in their market. When the market goes down, the creditors demand borrowers raise money (sell stock) so the borrower can repay the debt. The result is an amplification of the selloff.

China has pretty much done all it can over the last 20 years to build the infrastructure necessary to compete on a global scale. The Chinese have pretty much ordered their companies to borrow money to build. The Chinese stock market is only open to the Chinese, not to direct foreign investment, which is why so many Chinese stocks are on the New York Stock Exchange and other World exchanges. While we hear that the country is doing wonderfully holding so much US debt, corporate Chinese debt is almost 200% of income (Their spending twice as much as they earn). The debt is predicted be as high as 300% in 10 years. The problem is that in order for China's economy to be self sustaining, their citizens have to become ravenous consumers. That isn't happening. Furthermore Chinese investments aren't returning what they hoped. To help their companies compete, they have devalued their currency which makes domestically made goods "cheaper" and foreign goods "expensive." This also "hurts" the value of the dollar as the dollar is getting stronger (our goods are more expensive overseas making them hard to sell). If the dollar gets too strong, it could hurt our employment figures (Can't sell = less money = layoffs).

Because many companies in the US depend on Chinese consumers, they are getting shellacked. The market is correcting the values of some of these companies

Many see this as a trade war. US companies are having a harder competing in China. The Chinese also want their currency (the Remnimbi) to become a reserve currency like the Dollar, Euro, Pound, and Yen. (It's a global "respect" that allows them to borrow cheaply) That was going to be likely until their market tanked. They're doing everything in their power to prop their markets up and keep themselves on track.

The summer is considered the slow season in the US for most consumerism. Analysts who follow companies will ramp up their forecasts over the rest of the year only to see them fall short. As a result, people see this as a reason to sell.

Lastly, people are still worried about the health of the American economy. Right now, it is the only one in the world working, relatively. The worry is are people making enough money to support it. Some say yes: People are buying houses and cars, renting apartments, and employment figures are healthy. Other say no: The government isn't reporting accurate employment figures, student loans are too much of a burden on Millennials, labor participation rates are at a 40 year low, and wages aren't increasing.

The fear is a repeat of 1937. When it looked like the US was out of recession only to raise interest rates too soon and causing the market to recess again. The Fed is walking a hell of a tightrope.

Lastly, what triggered the worry in the US market is that a big chunk of the S&P 500 are media companies. Disney (ESPN) basically said they're worried about cord cutters. Since half of Disney's profits depend on people subscribing to cable to pay for the NFL, NBA, and MLB, that could whack profits (part of the reason most of the major ESPN personalities are being axed left and right). This affects CBS, AMC, Time Warner, Comcast, Cablevision, etc. too

The market is down over 10% from it's highs making this an official correction. History says it's healthy for a market to do this usually once a year. The market hasn't done this in a while because of our stock market crash 7 years ago. The stock market has gotten back to the level that it would have been had the market not crashed years ago.

It gets more complex, but it's a hockey board after all.
 
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njdevsfn95

Help JJJ, Sprite.
Jul 30, 2006
31,348
55
Well I guess my quarterly statement is gonna be terrible to behold when it arrives in October. Huzzah
 

Devils731

Registered User
Jun 23, 2008
12,359
16,535
I rolled over an old 401k a month or so ago and kept it sitting in cash in case this happened.
 

tr83

Nope, still embarassed
Oct 14, 2013
14,602
3,693
Jersey Shore
I rolled over an old 401k a month or so ago and kept it sitting in cash in case this happened.

I rolled into cash in my 401K two weeks ago waiting for this. Too many companies were missing earnings, the China mess, and the unease with the Fed. The market can't hold all time highs with that kind of scenario even with housing start blowing out records.

I watched all my stocks get hammered. Buuuutttt, that just means everything is on sale! I'll jump back in next month.:yo:
 

Desert Devil

Legend
Sponsor
Sep 28, 2010
6,936
275
Phoenix, Arizona
What people don't realize ultimately, is that if they have the proper investment plan, then there is no reason to worry. Most people don't, thus many decide to follow the masses.
 

DenisSamson3

Registered User
Sep 13, 2007
8,538
53
What people don't realize ultimately, is that if they have the proper investment plan, then there is no reason to worry. Most people don't, thus many decide to follow the masses.

Just heard that over 50% of people in America are not in the stock market. They have less to worry about I guess.
 

DenisSamson3

Registered User
Sep 13, 2007
8,538
53
:popcorn:

The Dow Jones is a conglomeration of 30 companies. This used to be the representation of the market, however since the corporate landscape has changed and the Dow hasn't kept up, it isn't the one in which traders don't compare their results to anymore. That belongs now to the S&P 500, which is an index of 500 companies. This is a better representation of the US corporate landscape. This is what traders compare their results to (the benchmark).

A dollar doesn't represent a point. That's because of the manipulation a company can do to it's stock price: A company can issue (float) more shares, buyback shares, split shares to make the share price more attractive to buyers (instead of 1 share = $50 a company can say 10 shares will = $5).

Think of it as reselling tickets you have for a concert. When you bought the seats, there were only a certain number of seats available to concert goers. The venue could add (float) more seats, remove seats, or say that the band is going to play 20 songs over 5 nights instead of one meaning your two tickets have become ten tickets, but the value is the same.

Because of this manipulation, the share price is divided by a particular number called a divisor. The divisor is a number based upon everything I mentioned in the last paragraph.

TL;DR: Points represent a certain dollar amount.


What's causing the stock market to crash now are a couple of things. Primarily, it's China. China's market crashed a few weeks ago, but this was a result of a lot of Chinese investors borrowing money to gamble in their market. When the market goes down, the creditors demand borrowers raise money (sell stock) so the borrower can repay the debt. The result is an amplification of the selloff.

China has pretty much done all it can over the last 20 years to build the infrastructure necessary to compete on a global scale. The Chinese have pretty much ordered their companies to borrow money to build. The Chinese stock market is only open to the Chinese, not to direct foreign investment, which is why so many Chinese stocks are on the New York Stock Exchange and other World exchanges. While we hear that the country is doing wonderfully holding so much US debt, corporate Chinese debt is almost 200% of income (Their spending twice as much as they earn). The debt is predicted be as high as 300% in 10 years. The problem is that in order for China's economy to be self sustaining, their citizens have to become ravenous consumers. That isn't happening. Furthermore Chinese investments aren't returning what they hoped. To help their companies compete, they have devalued their currency which makes domestically made goods "cheaper" and foreign goods "expensive." This also "hurts" the value of the dollar as the dollar is getting stronger (our goods are more expensive overseas making them hard to sell). If the dollar gets too strong, it could hurt our employment figures (Can't sell = less money = layoffs).

Because many companies in the US depend on Chinese consumers, they are getting shellacked. The market is correcting the values of some of these companies

Many see this as a trade war. US companies are having a harder competing in China. The Chinese also want their currency (the Remnimbi) to become a reserve currency like the Dollar, Euro, Pound, and Yen. (It's a global "respect" that allows them to borrow cheaply) That was going to be likely until their market tanked. They're doing everything in their power to prop their markets up and keep themselves on track.

The summer is considered the slow season in the US for most consumerism. Analysts who follow companies will ramp up their forecasts over the rest of the year only to see them fall short. As a result, people see this as a reason to sell.

Lastly, people are still worried about the health of the American economy. Right now, it is the only one in the world working, relatively. The worry is are people making enough money to support it. Some say yes: People are buying houses and cars, renting apartments, and employment figures are healthy. Other say no: The government isn't reporting accurate employment figures, student loans are too much of a burden on Millennials, labor participation rates are at a 40 year low, and wages aren't increasing.

The fear is a repeat of 1937. When it looked like the US was out of recession only to raise interest rates too soon and causing the market to recess again. The Fed is walking a hell of a tightrope.

Lastly, what triggered the worry in the US market is that a big chunk of the S&P 500 are media companies. Disney (ESPN) basically said they're worried about cord cutters. Since half of Disney's profits depend on people subscribing to cable to pay for the NFL, NBA, and MLB, that could whack profits (part of the reason most of the major ESPN personalities are being axed left and right). This affects CBS, AMC, Time Warner, Comcast, Cablevision, etc. too

The market is down over 10% from it's highs making this an official correction. History says it's healthy for a market to do this usually once a year. The market hasn't done this in a while because of our stock market crash 7 years ago. The stock market has gotten back to the level that it would have been had the market not crashed years ago.
It gets more complex, but it's a hockey board after all.

This was a pretty good post! I agree with a lot of it. Also I think the government officials who recieve the statistics on the country are lying about the statistics they are providing, giving a false sense of optimism. EX: Detroit an unemployment rate of only 9.5%?We will see though. One thing for sure, the Chinese real estate buying on the West coast will eventually slow down. They kept the housing prices from falling in 2008.
 
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BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
40,436
7,745
PRNJ
Forgive my financial ignorance, but I have absolutely no idea what points mean. Is this abnormally bad? what's causing it? The stock market is one of those things I know absolutely nothing about somehow.

It's an index.
Yes.
Apparently, economic reality is beginning to dawn on the masses.

Because when a woman does it nobody cares. They just congratulate the kid and any emotional trauma he may have is just because he's a pansy.

Pretty much. I've always thought this was bizarre, especially the typical sentencing. Guy gets the chiller for years, Gal gets slap on wrist, probation, MAYBE 6 months or a year or so in jail.

I think the government officials who recieve the statistics on the country are lying about the statistics they are providing, giving a false sense of optimism. EX: Detroit an unemployment rate of only 9.5%?We will see though.

Somewhat. Though "lie" might be a strong word depending on your opinion, but some of it is absolute horse****.

For instance, the 5.2% unemployment rate you constantly hear in the media? It's complete BS. The real US unemployment rate is closer to 10%. That said, the trend is it's been improving. For instance, a few years back when the media told you the unemployment rate was 9%, it was closer to 15%.

Most people (I think), would intuitively suspect this BS if they really thought about their social base. For instance, 5.2% is ~1 in 20 people. I think most people adding up all their family, all their friends, all their acquaintances, then doing that division, will tell you they likely know more than 1 in 20 who are unemployed.
 

njdevsfn95

Help JJJ, Sprite.
Jul 30, 2006
31,348
55
I watched all my stocks get hammered. Buuuutttt, that just means everything is on sale! I'll jump back in next month.:yo:

I dont put anything in for July and August so looks like my account will be purchasing some cheaper funds in September.
 

goonybird

Young boy expert
Jul 9, 2015
4,766
3,238
Danny down from 3 to 2 and is beginning what looks like a northward trend. escalated VERY quickly, but might deescalate quickly too
 

DenisSamson3

Registered User
Sep 13, 2007
8,538
53
I dont put anything in for July and August so looks like my account will be purchasing some cheaper funds in September.

But here is something interesting. The two day drop was 888 points in total. Those two days are more than any one day drop in U.S. history.

#1 2008-09-29 −777.68

#2 2008-10-15 −733.08

#3 2001-09-17 −684.81

#4 2008-12-01 −679.95

#5 2008-10-09 −678.91

#6 2011-08-08 −634.76

#7 2000-04-14 −617.77

#8 1997-10-27 −554.26
^
Here are 1 day drops.
^

So I researched these statistics further. Percentage wise it was only the 20th worst. Not that bad, so it's ok. The percentage number has a greater role.
 
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Rhodes 81

grit those teeth
Nov 22, 2008
16,148
5,611
Atlanta
:popcorn:

It gets more complex, but it's a hockey board after all.
Thanks for all that. I do like to think I understand how the world economy works and how it is all interconnected (I HATE when I hear people saying what happens with foreign currencies doesn't matter). But I've somehow never been able to figure out how it all translates to the market. I'm sure I'll figure it out some day but for now I'm an irresponsible millennial that got out of college, started getting big boy checks, and went out and got married and bought as house. Since I didn't have to take any student loans thanks to scholarships and working as an RA in college, I figured I might as well give half of every paycheck to a mortgage company instead.

Pretty much. I've always thought this was bizarre, especially the typical sentencing. Guy gets the chiller for years, Gal gets slap on wrist, probation, MAYBE 6 months or a year or so in jail.
It's two-way sexism. Basically women aren't really capable of being predators or monsters in the traditional sense one thinks of as the type of person who can rape a minor, and no male could ever really not want sex. There are still people that believe that if a guy has an erection, he's consenting to something. It's kind of disgusting that our society is still stuck in this way of thinking, but even those that recognize and try to fight against sexism still fall into the trap.
 

Desert Devil

Legend
Sponsor
Sep 28, 2010
6,936
275
Phoenix, Arizona
Buying a Smith & Wesson M&P9 from a buddy of mine. This is my first gun so I'm pretty pumped about it. The great thing is he used to work at a range so he knows all the safety aspects to it.
 

EliasFTW

Registered User
Jan 27, 2009
8,397
1,073
Utica, NY
Buying a Smith & Wesson M&P9 from a buddy of mine. This is my first gun so I'm pretty pumped about it. The great thing is he used to work at a range so he knows all the safety aspects to it.

What good is that going to do? You need to learn all the safety aspects.
 

BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
40,436
7,745
PRNJ
Thanks for all that. I do like to think I understand how the world economy works and how it is all interconnected (I HATE when I hear people saying what happens with foreign currencies doesn't matter). But I've somehow never been able to figure out how it all translates to the market. I'm sure I'll figure it out some day but for now I'm an irresponsible millennial that got out of college, started getting big boy checks, and went out and got married and bought as house.

If I could recommend a book to people who want a "speed dating" course in everything important in economics, but dont want get mired in wonky, and dont want to really know anything too deeply, just the major points so they have a well-rounded basic understanding, this is about as good as it gets. Short, bite sized bits of econ, everything from stocks, bonds, currency, inflation, Fed history, commodities, etc...., you name it - and all written in lay-men's terms. I've recommended this to zillions of folks over the years.

http://www.amazon.com/Economic-Literacy-Everyone-Needs-Markets/dp/0517886839

Buying a Smith & Wesson M&P9 from a buddy of mine. This is my first gun so I'm pretty pumped about it.

Practice, practice, practice. What cartridge is (that model comes in all the usual suspects)?
 

Desert Devil

Legend
Sponsor
Sep 28, 2010
6,936
275
Phoenix, Arizona
Practice, practice, practice. What cartridge is (that model comes in all the usual suspects)?

I'm honestly not sure. I will post more once I get into it. I've been shooting plenty of times before so I'm just trying to move slow at this point.

Cool cool cool. Every gun owner should understand the dangers of a gun.

Definitely. For as bad as a reputation Arizona gets, everyone I've encountereed has been super professional about guns. Seems to be lost in the media shuffle. I'm lucky enough that 2 out of the 3 buddies I'll be shooting with have handled guns professionally. One was in combat in Iraq. I'm definitely in good hands.
 

Rhodes 81

grit those teeth
Nov 22, 2008
16,148
5,611
Atlanta
I'm honestly not sure. I will post more once I get into it. I've been shooting plenty of times before so I'm just trying to move slow at this point.



Definitely. For as bad as a reputation Arizona gets, everyone I've encountereed has been super professional about guns. Seems to be lost in the media shuffle. I'm lucky enough that 2 out of the 3 buddies I'll be shooting with have handled guns professionally. One was in combat in Iraq. I'm definitely in good hands.

It's generally been my experience that people who actually own guns are the ones that respect and fear them the most. guns, like pretty much everything, are only dangerous when they're being used by idiots or people who aren't being safe.
 

DenisSamson3

Registered User
Sep 13, 2007
8,538
53
Stocks down 1000 points on opening. Now 600 points. Banks are closing in some European countries. People flooding the banks over there. German stocks are down 7% now in one day? Also is market manipulation going on? Some people on the internet are questioning how stocks could increase 500 points in 20 min?
 
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